Ähnlich wie [PreMoney SF 2015] CB Insights >> "Venture-nomics: A Quantitative Look At Bubbles, Unicorns, Fund Formation, Corporate VC, Int'l Market Opps + More"
Ähnlich wie [PreMoney SF 2015] CB Insights >> "Venture-nomics: A Quantitative Look At Bubbles, Unicorns, Fund Formation, Corporate VC, Int'l Market Opps + More" (20)
2. 2www.cbinsights.com 2www.cbinsights.com @cbinsights
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3. 3www.cbinsights.com 3www.cbinsights.com @cbinsights
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Greg Bae
Investments & Biz Dev
Comcast Ventures
Jack Leeney
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Telefonica Ventures
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Ventures Director
Castrol innoVentures
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Cisco
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“According to CB Insights…”
From the NY Times to Bloomberg, CB Insights data is used by hundreds of leading media outlets every week
“CB Insights put out an intriguing infographic in which they analyzed the
most capital efficient unicorns. That is, the startups with the highest ratio of
investment to current estimated valuation.”
See our latest media mentions
http://www.cbinsights.com/press
“London & Partners, working with data from CB Insights, says that money-
transfer startup WorldRemit raised the most of any other company in Q1, a
$100 million round in February”
“The stakes for both exchanges are high. According to the research firm
CB Insights, about 588 privately backed companies have valuations of
more than $100 million, meaning that they are potential candidates for
going public sometime in the next several years.”
“Last year, more than $100 million flowed into U.S. drone start-ups,
according to CB Insights, double 2013 levels”
“About 33 Dallas-based tech companies have been acquired since 2012,
including the enterprise cloud company SoftLayer, which was bought by
IBM in 2013 for $2 billion, according to data from CB Insights. ”
7. 7www.cbinsights.com 7@cbinsights
Many smart folks say things are bubbly
From investors to journalists, the cries of a bubble have intensified as of late
“Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years. What
is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand and what might pop it.
In our view the current bubble is an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large
capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm. Some indications that we are pretty far
along include:
• The rejection of conventional valuation methods;
• Short-sellers forced to cover due to intolerable mark-to-market losses; and
• Huge first day IPO pops for companies that have done little more than use the right buzzwords
and attract the right venture capital.”
David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital
“I think there’s two things are going on: One, there’s quite a bit of capital availability out there, and if
you look at how low-interest rates are, and what are the alternatives to invest capital and get return,
that causes asset prices to rise. The stock market’s up, as well.
You know, this is a cyclical industry, and when times get good, they get really good. Last time we
saw that was 1999 and many of the people at this conference might not have been paying
attention, because they were in high school. But money is definitely freer flowing today than it was
three or four years ago.”
Bill Gurley, Benchmark Capital
8. 8www.cbinsights.com 8@cbinsights
“For me a bubble is simple, it’s when people are paying significantly higher prices for any asset class
that is in great excess of the underlying value of that asset. (One area that is subject to that definition
right now is) late-stage financing of tech companies of companies like ZocDoc, or maybe even
Dropbox, AirBnB and Uber. I’m not arguing (late-stage investors) are crazy, I’m arguing they’re
irrational.”
Mark Suster, Upfront Ventures
As with so many of the telltale signs of a bubble, I have seen this before. When times are so good
that executives are willing to disregard the difference between ethical and unctuous behavior, it’s just
one sign that the end, relatively speaking, is near. It’s not the only sign. The over-supply of journalism
jobs covering the technology industry, for example, is a good indicator.
Adam Lashinksy, Fortune
“It’s been a steady sequence of very large rounds. It means we are in bubble territory…No one wants
to say because nobody wants to break it. Everybody wants to cash out before its over.
…We are seeing expansion of valuation even from the seed stage all the way up…(There is)
desperation to not miss out on what will be the next big thing.”
George Zachary, CRV
Many smart folks say things are bubbly
From investors to journalists, the cries of a bubble have intensified as of late
15. 15www.cbinsights.com 15@cbinsights
What’s a unicorn?
Unfortunately, this term was adopted by our industry. I apologize.
Private companies valued at over
$1B. Generally refers to companies in
high-growth sectors of tech, life
sciences and energy. But mostly
tech.
Unicorn exits are private companies
which have exited for over $1 billion
via M&A or IPO.
20. 20www.cbinsights.com 20@cbinsights
Much easier to raise at a billion than exit at one
Stark difference in the # of companies raising at a billion dollar valuation vs those which exit at one
28. 28www.cbinsights.com 28@cbinsights
Find & stalk smart money investors
Monitor strategies and deals of investors and uncover new sources of dealflow in your areas of focus
Common refrain from some VCs is that many of these investors are “dumb
money”. Of course, that also conveniently ignores returns of most VCs.
29. 29www.cbinsights.com 29@cbinsights
Price/Revenue multiples of unicorns
Some of these companies are being valued at seemingly eye-popping valuations
Source: Uber and Slack have significantly higher valuation multiples than other unicorns
38. 38www.cbinsights.com 38@cbinsights
Source: Disrupting Wells Fargo, Citi and Bank of America
The old guard are waking up
Tech is not just attacking tech
Goldman Sachs issues this ominous sounding
report about an “expanding class of competitors to
capture profit pools long controlled by banks.”
“Silicon Valley is coming. There are hundreds of
startups with a lot of brains and money working on
various alternatives to traditional banking. The ones you
read about most are in the lending business, whereby
the firms can lend to individuals and small businesses
very quickly and – these entities believe – effectively by
using Big Data to enhance credit underwriting. They are
very good at reducing the “pain points” in that they can
make loans in minutes, which might take banks weeks.”
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO JP Morgan Chase & Co.
41. 41www.cbinsights.com 41@cbinsights
Every tech unicorn combined is worth < than Facebook
Private markets are frothy but not a material part of tech
Source: The Value of Every US Tech Unicorn Combined is Still Less Than One Facebook
43. 43www.cbinsights.com 43@cbinsights
Public markets are not crazy
The lack of IPOs is a good sign that throwing the label “tech” onto something is not enough for a lofty public market valuation
Source: The Compression ins SaaS Valuations
45. 45www.cbinsights.com 45@cbinsights
A bubble requires rapid expansion AND contraction
And the private markets are seeing the expansion happen. There is no public scorecard to force the contraction.
Some investors will lose
money on these bets.
And they’ll be replaced by
new investors who dismiss
“those guys” as dumb.
The opaqueness
of the private
markets let you
bury the dead very
quietly.