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Bradley Kreit CareWare 2011
- 1. The Future of Science, Technology, and Well-being: Stories, Forecasts, and Artifacts from the Future Bradley Kreit| Research Manager Institute for the Future Health Horizons Program February 10, 2011 © 2010 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1325
- 2. well-being 2
- 3. 3 Death Registration Health and well-being need to be measured … State of Health Atlas O’Donovan (2008) University of California Press
- 4. 4
- 5. 5 wellbeing: Greater satisfaction and happiness: improved psychological and social, as well as physical health
- 6. 6
- 7. 7
- 8. 8
- 9. 9
- 10. BODIES: stress and long-term health 10
- 11. Why are we looking at well-being? 11
- 12. global health economymap of the decade 12
- 13. 13
- 14. From reducing disease to producing well-being From treating individuals to interventions at multiple scales 14 Two Key Shifts:
- 15. 15
- 16. stories from the future 16
- 17. artifacts from the future Illustrated scenarios that combine several future trends into a product, service, or news item that we may see in the coming decade. 17
- 18. What if… You could get a sneak preview of your future health? 18
- 19. 19
- 20. virtual human interaction lab 20
- 21. I almost want[ed] to feel my body to see if the changes had actually taken place. Even though I really dislike carrots, I liked watching myself get thinner, so watching the weight loss take place made me want to eat more healthily. I love chocolate, so it was difficult to watch myself gain weight. It made me sort of depressed to really visualize that eating chocolate is so unhealthy. —Study Participant, Stanford Virtual Human Interaction Lab
- 22. personalized health simulations 22 “ MyDigitalHealth puts the power of computer simulation and ‘what if’ analysis into your hands, letting you take control of your health. ”
- 23. 23 SIGNAL:Virtual Reality for Psychological Health
- 25. What if… Your doctor prescribed a social network for you? 25
- 30. 30
- 32. sensors ANDpeer-to-peer support 32 Source: www.fitbit.com
- 34. What if… Your environment could enhance your well-being? 34
- 36. 36
- 40. SIGNAL: diminished reality 40
- 41. SIGNAL: diminished reality 41
- 44. Bodies: Previewing Future Health States Networks: Prescription Social Interventions Environments: Places that Enhance Well-Being 44 Scales of Intervention:
- 45. The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed. –William Gibson, 2003 45 “ ”
- 46. Thank you! bkreit@iftf.org Bradley Kreit| Research Manager Institute for the Future Health Horizons Program February 10, 2011 © 2010 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1325
Hinweis der Redaktion
- -Intros, Overview of Agenda, etc.-Facilitate a discussion with Life Technologies about the science and technology landscape over the next decade-IFTF research focused on the global health challenge we call Transforming Bodies and Lifestyles
- http://wellbeingmagazine.co.uk/http://www.ksv.co.uk/flavia/drinks.htmlhttp://www.tradekorea.com/product-detail/P00096613/Pumpkin_toffee_caramel.html#http://www.catchow.com/well-being/My colleague Rachel Maguire showed some of these images at our conference this June, and it gives you a sense of just how many different claims you can find about well-being. There’s a well-being magazine and well-being drinks. In the bottom left, there, you’ll notice that a cat food manufacturer promises that its cat food enhances well-being by “inspiring, empowering and giving back.” If you Google the phrase “well-being candy,” you’ll find the Korean pumpkin toffee candy—which doesn’t sound particularly appetizing, by the way—pictured in the top right.So our first point, early on, was that none of these products seemed to shed much light on well-being, at least as a useful way of thinking about well-being in the context of health and health care. Candy may be tasty, it may be a fun treat from time to time, but snacking on candy all the time is a path to diabetes, obesity and all sorts of other things that hardly qualify as well-being.
- We also tried looking at more traditional and medical definitions of well-being. My colleague Miriam Lueck Avery showed this image at our last conference, which comes from the Atlas of World Health, and it claims to be a map measuring health and well-being around the globe. But really, it turns out the atlas just measured death.So point number two, and we were pretty confident about this early on, is that dying is not well-being.
- The third point is that you can’t have well-being without death and candy.Death is a part of life. And more broadly, illness is a part of life--particularly in light of the billion people worldwide who are overweight, the 130 million people in the United States with chronic illnesses, and the simple fact that more and more of us globally are living the sorts of lives that result in ongoing health problems. Which is to say that we have to stop thinking that the absence of disease is a precondition of well-being. Many of us will live for decades with ongoing health concerns. In other words, we need to be comfortable with the idea that we can be sick and well at the same time. As for candy. Well, most of us don’t want to live in a world without candy. Or, put in more general terms, most of us have little indulgences—a glass of wine, chocolate, a bacon cheeseburger—that are critical to how we create well-being in our own lives. Put differently, short-term happiness is a part of well-being.Of course, the problem with a life of bacon cheeseburgers, chocolate and wine is that it’s not a particularly healthy, or particularly long life. And so for most of us, we make tradeoffs and evaluations—we treat short-term happiness and long-term well-being as part of a broader personal health ecology.This year, we challenged ourselves to create a landscape for holding these elements of well-being together—that would offer a tool for thinking about how to develop different sorts of responses that could enable people to build capacities for health and well-being—in the present and in the long-run, and in sickness and in health. (I need to figure out how to make a joke out of that phrase.)Clockwise:http://www.flickr.com/photos/cobalt/4270857793/sizes/m/in/photostream/http://www.flickr.com/photos/pagedooley/3444679860/sizes/z/
- We adapted this definition from the WHO and it’s a helpful way of thinking about well-being: As greater satisfaction and happiness, as well as improved psychological, social and physical health. We places this definition at the center of our response landscape—responses aimed at improving well-being will attempt to improve one or more of these components of health.
- This landscape consists of four different quadrants of response—and I think the bottom two areas are probably the most familiar to most of you.At the bottom of this landscape, we placed illness—a category that a century ago mostly meant emergency health situations but now more commonly involves ongoing, chronic health problems. Responses to illness can range from an acute intervention—say, heart surgery—to a more long-range effort to treat hypertension with pharmaceuticals over the course of decades. And, of course, these are critical parts of well-being responses—mititgating, managing, treating and helping people deal with illness and get better.
- We chose to move beyond terms like acute and chronic, however, because illness-relieving responses aren’t the only sorts of ways to build capacities for well-being. Instead, we used the terms immediate and long-term.
- We also chose immediate and long-term for other reasons including recognizing how the perception of time impacts us—we tend to focus on the immediate and discount long-term effects, in many instances.It’s almost impossible to believe, but 20 percent of Americans still smoke, though we’re not nearly as bad as parts of Asia where as many as 50 percent of people in certain regions smoke. This is not for lack of information. No one smokes because it’s a good long-term choice. Instead, people smoke for that immediate reward—that little burst of satisfaction that comes from inhaling a cigarette. Of course, smoking has long-term health consequences—and that’s an important element of this landscape. Immediate decisions have long-term effects, even if we don’t plan for them. But we think an important part of well-being is paying attention to those long-term effects—to act with an eye toward long-range health. And it isn’t just our individual choices that have long-term effects—our organizational work, products, new forms of treatment—all have long-term consequences even if we think mostly about the immediate.
- You can think of these long-term effects as the process of dealing with chronic illness; but we’re also seeing growing efforts toward producing long-term health. For example, nutrition researchers have shown that there are points in a baby’s early infancy where eating healthy food can produce huge improvements in long-term health, and while the impacts may not be obvious right now, the potential for these sorts of efforts to create long-term health are huge.Another way of thinking of these long-term investments in childhood nutrition is as an investment in creating long-term capacities for health and well-being. Health capacities rise from a shift in thinking of health as simply a matter of risks and illnesses to thinking about health assets we can use to create short-term and long-term well-being. Capacity-building responses are responses that enable individuals, organizations, or communities to become healthier and happier, as well as better prepared for the potential impact of illness.Let me share a couple of examples of what we mean by capacity-building responses.
- http://www.livescience.com/health/recession-impacting-teenage-employment-opportunities.htmlTake stress. Most of us think as stress as something to cope with—something we need to manage and deal with, but that ultimately impacts our in the moment happiness rather than long-term health. But research is beginning to reveal that how we handle stress affects more than just our job performance—it contributes to high blood pressure and other health risks. In this sense, one way to build a health capacity is to give people tools to manage and reduce stress in the short term, improving short-term psychological well-being and long-term health.
- -Quote. The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.-IFTF 1968, Rand, Delphi, foresight, anticipate the future to make better decisions in the present-10 year forecasters: far away enough to identify directional changes but close enough to influence strategic decisions-Direction changes: from this to that and Signals: where do we see the future today?
- -Quote. The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.-IFTF 1968, Rand, Delphi, foresight, anticipate the future to make better decisions in the present-10 year forecasters: far away enough to identify directional changes but close enough to influence strategic decisions-Direction changes: from this to that and Signals: where do we see the future today?
- I almost want[ed] to feel my body to see if the changes had actually taken place. Even though I really dislike carrots, I liked watching myself get thinner, so watching the weight loss take place made me want to eat more healthily. I love chocolate, so it was difficult to watch myself gain weight. It made me sort of depressed to really visualize that eating chocolate is so unhealthy.
- Virtual reality is becoming a key tool in all sorts of cognitive and mental health therapies. It has been used as a therapy for PTSD as well as phobias—the picture of the spider in a kitchen, for example, is of a virtual reality treatment for arachnophobia.Virtual reality is also being used to influence health behaviors.
- WHAT | So today wasn’t the best day—snippy coworkers, missed deadlines, a donut for lunch. It’s hard to imagine tomorrow being better. But why leave tomorrow to the imagination? In ten minutes this booth immerses you in a healthier, happier reality: a photorealistic avatar of you as calm, collegial, exercising, and eating real food for a change. And it was just the motivational pick-me-up you needed to get back on track.SO WHAT | This experience puts into action insights from behavioral psychology about how our own image—changed in some way and reflected back to us—influences our decisions.Situated in a highly accessible train station, it continues to link health and fun while amplifying beyond the home. It invites tired, stressed, and sedentary commuters to motivate themselvesthrough the evening and the days to come with aspirational visions of themselves.
- have also published their research in leading scientific journals, such as the New England Journal of Medicine our social networks play a significant role in our health, spreading behaviors related to smoking, obesity, and even happiness.
- Progression of flu contagion in the friendship network over time. Each frame shows the largest component of the network (714 people) for a specific date, with each line representing a friendship nomination and each node representing a person. Infected individuals are colored red, friends of infected individuals are colored yellow, and node size is proportional to the number of friends infected. All available information regarding infections is used here. Frames for all 122 days of the study are available in a movie of the epidemic posted in the Supporting Information (Video S1). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012948.g004
- Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler.Christakis - trained both as a physician and social scientist; Harvard profwith appointments in the Departments of Health Care Policy, Sociology, and Medicine. Fowler – political scientist at UC San Diego and an affiliate of the Center for Wireless and Population Health at <CLICK/BUILD>Last year they published a book called Connected, which is about the power of our social networks to affect our lives, including our health.Used the Framingham Study as the basis for their research.
- Fitbit tracks calories burned, steps taken, distance traveled and sleep quality easy to share Fitbit stats with friends & family—post your daily or weekly steps to Facebook Wall and share your success with your connections. Stay motivated; positive reinforcement from connections a great source of encouragement. Also share using Twitter (seen here).
- He has also tried to buy her the health-chip enabled cellphone—basically, a gps-enabled device that would track her movements outside the house which Chris could review, if so inclined, as a means to watch for age and dementia-related wandering.Thus far, Karen has managed to refuse her son’s efforts to give her more invasive monitoring technology—but she isn’t sure how much longer she’ll be able to do so.
- Wireless sensors in carpets, floor boards are already emerging as a key technology component enabling seniors to live independently in their current homes. At the moment, these sensors are mostly used to monitor for emergencies—and trigger alerts to family members or paramedics if something happens. In the next decade, these sensors will be repurposed for more robust monitoring and data-mining to not simply know if an emergency has happened, but to be able to sense and potentially prevent the emergencies from taking place.
- Similarly, experiments with using visual cues in the environment are just now beginning back in 2010. For example, the company Glowcaps has created prescription pill bottles that glow to remind an individual when it’s time to take a pill. Ongoing efforts to develop better visual and sensory tools in our environments—designs to give us reminders and timely messages—will play an increasingly important role in helping everyone from seniors managing their own health to hurried parents care for their newborns.
- We can imagine ambient awareness creeping into all sorts of household products—to turn out homes into gentles nudges and helpful reminders that enable us to process information.Woman waking up sees list of social obligations as well as community eventsWays to keep engaged, stay on top of obligations
- See video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgTq-AgYlTE – this is a video of something called diminished reality, explained in the next slide.
- Take this recent project from researchers in Germany called diminished reality, a play on the concept of augmented reality. Whereas the emerging technology of augmented reality is all about layering digital information into our physical spaces, diminished reality is about doing the opposite—using real-time video processing and filtering to remove things we don’t want to see. You know how you can never make it through the supermarket checkout without grabbing a candy bar? When diminished reality becomes reality, you won’t have that problem. Because you won’t see the candy bar. And these triggers in our environments matter. In fact, a recent study showed that while something like 10 percent of adults buy candy, more like 80 percent of adults will eat candy if it’s there for consumption. The broader point is that we’re understanding how things like the presence of a candy bar, or the size of a plate or bowl, influences our choices and we will use these granular understandings to shape the environment around us to promote health and well-being.
- WHAT | 3:11 pm, your weakest time. You’ve already reached your calorie limit for the day, but the vending machine still calls. Time fora new defense—an app for your augmented reality glasses that blocks from view the foods that you shouldn’t eat. Instead, the app shows minutes of treadmill time to work them off. Yourbest friend Neela is your food coach, and she even removes your worst weakness altogether.SO WHAT | Mounting evidence shows that the plethora of choices we face when finding food are bad for our peace of mind and self-control, but store formats are slow to change. Manufacturers are in a bind between simplifying and catering to fragmenting desires. But in this future, an individual reclaims choice throughvoluntary simplicity: using augmented reality to mask temptations and stick to health goals.
- -Quote. The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.-IFTF 1968, Rand, Delphi, foresight, anticipate the future to make better decisions in the present-10 year forecasters: far away enough to identify directional changes but close enough to influence strategic decisions-Direction changes: from this to that and Signals: where do we see the future today?
- -Quote. The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.-IFTF 1968, Rand, Delphi, foresight, anticipate the future to make better decisions in the present-10 year forecasters: far away enough to identify directional changes but close enough to influence strategic decisions-Direction changes: from this to that and Signals: where do we see the future today?
- -Intros, Overview of Agenda, etc.-Facilitate a discussion with Life Technologies about the science and technology landscape over the next decade-IFTF research focused on the global health challenge we call Transforming Bodies and Lifestyles