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Capital Asset Pricing and
Arbitrage Pricing Theory


     Prof. Karim Mimouni
                            1
Capital Asset Pricing Model
          (CAPM)


                              2
Assumptions
• Individual investors are price takers

• Single-period investment horizon

• Investments are limited to traded financial
  assets

• No taxes, and transaction costs

                                                3
Assumptions (cont.)
• Information is costless and available to all
  investors

• Homogeneous expectations




                                                 4
Resulting Equilibrium
            Conditions
• All investors will hold the same portfolio
  for risky assets – market portfolio

• Market portfolio contains all securities
  and the proportion of each security is its
  market value as a percentage of total
  market value


                                               5
The Efficient Frontier and the
    Capital Market Line




                                 6
Slope and Market Risk Premium
         M     =   Market portfolio
          rf   =   Risk free rate
  E(rM) - rf   =   Market risk premium

  E(rM) - rf   =   Market price of risk
   σM
               =   Slope of the CML

                                          7
Expected Return and Risk
 on Individual Securities
 E (ri ) − rf = β i ( E (rM ) − rf )

M =          Market portfolio
rf     =     Risk free rate
E(ri) - rf = Risk premium on security i
E(rM) - rf =    Market risk premium
                                          8
The Security Market Line and
    Positive Alpha Stock




                               9
• Determine the equation of the SML and plot it
  when:

             ( E (r
                  M    ) − rf ) = 0.08

and

                      rf = 0.03



                                                  10
Application
• You are in an economy where Rf=9%,
  E(Rm)=20%.
• Determine the equation of the SML line in
  this economy.
• A stock has a beta=1.5. Determine the
  required rate of return. Give your
  recommendation when you think its
  expected return will be 22%.
• Do the same analysis when beta=-0.5 and
  investor expect the return to be 7%         11
Estimating the Index Model

• Using historical data on T-bills, S&P 500
  and individual securities
• Regress risk premiums for individual
  stocks against the risk premiums for the
  S&P 500
• Slope is the beta for the individual stock




                                               12
Characteristic Line for GM




                             13
Security Characteristic
Line for GM: Summary Output




                              14
Multifactor Models




                     15
• Limitations for CAPM

• Market Portfolio is not directly observable

• Research shows that other factors affect
  returns



                                                16
Fama French Research
   • Returns are related to factors other than market
     returns
   • Size
   • Book value relative to market value
   • Three factor model better describes returns

   • Example : GM

E (rGM ) − r f = β GM , M ( E (rM ) − rf ) + β GM ,SMB ( E (rSMB ) − rf ) + β GM , HML ( E (rHML ) − rf )


                                                                                                            17
Regression Statistics for the Single-
 index and FF Three-factor Model




                                        18
Arbitrage Pricing Theory




                           19
• Arbitrage - arises if an investor can
  construct a zero beta investment portfolio
  with a return greater than the risk-free rate

• If two portfolios are mispriced, the investor
  could buy the low-priced portfolio and sell
  the high-priced portfolio

• In efficient markets, profitable arbitrage
  opportunities will quickly disappear

                                                  20
Security
  Line Characteristics
E (rP ) − rf = β P ( E (rM ) − rf )




                                      21
APT and CAPM Compared
• APT applies to well diversified portfolios and not
  necessarily to individual stocks

• With APT it is possible for some individual stocks
  to be mispriced - not lie on the SML

• APT is more general in that it gets to an
  expected return and beta relationship without the
  assumption of the market portfolio

• APT can be extended to multifactor models
                                                       22

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Capm and apt

  • 1. Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory Prof. Karim Mimouni 1
  • 2. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 2
  • 3. Assumptions • Individual investors are price takers • Single-period investment horizon • Investments are limited to traded financial assets • No taxes, and transaction costs 3
  • 4. Assumptions (cont.) • Information is costless and available to all investors • Homogeneous expectations 4
  • 5. Resulting Equilibrium Conditions • All investors will hold the same portfolio for risky assets – market portfolio • Market portfolio contains all securities and the proportion of each security is its market value as a percentage of total market value 5
  • 6. The Efficient Frontier and the Capital Market Line 6
  • 7. Slope and Market Risk Premium M = Market portfolio rf = Risk free rate E(rM) - rf = Market risk premium E(rM) - rf = Market price of risk σM = Slope of the CML 7
  • 8. Expected Return and Risk on Individual Securities E (ri ) − rf = β i ( E (rM ) − rf ) M = Market portfolio rf = Risk free rate E(ri) - rf = Risk premium on security i E(rM) - rf = Market risk premium 8
  • 9. The Security Market Line and Positive Alpha Stock 9
  • 10. • Determine the equation of the SML and plot it when: ( E (r M ) − rf ) = 0.08 and rf = 0.03 10
  • 11. Application • You are in an economy where Rf=9%, E(Rm)=20%. • Determine the equation of the SML line in this economy. • A stock has a beta=1.5. Determine the required rate of return. Give your recommendation when you think its expected return will be 22%. • Do the same analysis when beta=-0.5 and investor expect the return to be 7% 11
  • 12. Estimating the Index Model • Using historical data on T-bills, S&P 500 and individual securities • Regress risk premiums for individual stocks against the risk premiums for the S&P 500 • Slope is the beta for the individual stock 12
  • 14. Security Characteristic Line for GM: Summary Output 14
  • 16. • Limitations for CAPM • Market Portfolio is not directly observable • Research shows that other factors affect returns 16
  • 17. Fama French Research • Returns are related to factors other than market returns • Size • Book value relative to market value • Three factor model better describes returns • Example : GM E (rGM ) − r f = β GM , M ( E (rM ) − rf ) + β GM ,SMB ( E (rSMB ) − rf ) + β GM , HML ( E (rHML ) − rf ) 17
  • 18. Regression Statistics for the Single- index and FF Three-factor Model 18
  • 20. • Arbitrage - arises if an investor can construct a zero beta investment portfolio with a return greater than the risk-free rate • If two portfolios are mispriced, the investor could buy the low-priced portfolio and sell the high-priced portfolio • In efficient markets, profitable arbitrage opportunities will quickly disappear 20
  • 21. Security Line Characteristics E (rP ) − rf = β P ( E (rM ) − rf ) 21
  • 22. APT and CAPM Compared • APT applies to well diversified portfolios and not necessarily to individual stocks • With APT it is possible for some individual stocks to be mispriced - not lie on the SML • APT is more general in that it gets to an expected return and beta relationship without the assumption of the market portfolio • APT can be extended to multifactor models 22