Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond Ontologies
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
1. ZSL Science and Conservation Events
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS
Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Imperial College London
2. A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Brian Hoskins
Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
7. (water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,…
Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861)
The Energy Budget of the Earth
The Greenhouse Effect
341 Wm-2
396
333
8. Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
We can be very confident that this rise in carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is due to the activities of humans
land use change
emissions of greenhouse gases,
principally by burning coal, oil & gas
If 100t of carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere
atmospheric content will be 40t greater after 20 years
35t greater after 100 years
25t greater after 1000 years
9. Estimated causes of the current imbalance
in the energy budget of Planet Earth
IPCC 2007
12. Other evidence of a warming climate
Global
sea level
Satellite 1991-
National Snow & Ice Data Center
1979-2000
average
September 2012 Arctic
sea ice
13. Natural &
anthropogenic forcings
14 models
58 simulations
Natural forcings only
5 models
19 simulations
Evaluation of climate models on 20th century climate
Annual precipitation
Observation
Average of
all models
14. Increase in
solar flux
Increase in
long-lived GHGs
Mean Temperature changes in models for changed conditions
height
latitude
IPCC AR4 WGp1 Ch8
18. Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003
(mean of 4 stations) Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336
2010 Russian Heat Wave Barriopedro 2011
Frequency of occurrence of
local T anomalies/local standard deviation of T
Hansen et al 2012
Extreme Summer Heat in the Past Decade
2012 US summer
Temperature ºF
Rain %
19. Cold winter extremes of the past few years
Winter 2009/10
Eurasian cold
16 Nov- 25 Dec
2010
Dec 2010
Record cold in UK
20. Acidification of the ocean:
Estimated change in oceanic pH since 1700
Some other Global Environmental Problems
associated with Human Activity
23. Drivers of Change in Biodiversity & Ecosystems
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
24. The anthropogenic climate change problem
The impacts derived from climate models are what are likely to occur if we are lucky -
increasing chance of crossing thresholds in the climate &/or natural or social systems
Context: growing world population
need for development
changing diet
increased demand for food, water & energy
other global environmental changes
Impacts: water supply
flooding
ecosystems
agriculture
coastal erosion & flooding
health
ecosystems
“Climate Disruption” rather than “Global Warming”
25. Tackling the climate change problem
By continuing to emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
we are performing a very dangerous experiment with planet Earth.
1. Adapt
2. Do something else to compensate: remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
reduce the sun’s energy reaching us
3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases:
mitigation
What can we do?
26. Mitigation
UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008)
• Commitment for at least 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050
• Established system of legally binding 5-year “carbon budgets”
• Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to advise, monitor & report
International
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol,
Conference of the Parties, …Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha….
Pledged: make 2015 agreement to start in 2020
EU 20% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2020,
30/40% by 2030? 2050 objective 80-95%
Many state or national targets e.g. China
27. Mitigation: UK Climate Change Committee
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
GtCO2e
Year
2016:4%
2016:3%low
2016:3%high
2016:1.5%
A1B
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
°Cabovepre-industrial Year
2016:4%low
90th percentile
central model
estimate
10th pecentile
2 Criteria: 50:50 chance of not getting much above 2ºC
negligible chance of getting to 4ºC
Global 50% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050: 2.1-2.6 t CO2e per person
In UK: 80% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050 -enshrined in UK law
29. Concluding Comments
A dangerous experiment:
By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a large risk
that climate change may make life very difficult for our species & others
Uncertainties in likely changes in local and regional climate change & in how the
natural world will cope with a changing climate lead to many questions for
those concerned with the future of the natural world.
Mitigation of climate change to levels that significantly reduce the risk
are possible and are likely to be beneficial in many other respects.
30. A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Brian Hoskins
Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
31. Past climate variation on 50K and 5K time-scales:
Greenland ice accumulation rate
Jacobsen et al 2000
33. “Geo-engineering” suggestions
Solar Radiation
Top of
Atmosphere
Surface
Aerosol
Scattering
Cloud Albedo
Solar Interceptor
Grassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo
Level 1 –
Space
Level 2 –
Stratosphere
Level 3 –
Troposphere
Level 4 -
Surface
2. Solar Radiation Management: reduce solar energy at surface
1. Carbon Dioxide Removal: remove from the atmosphere
fertilise the ocean
artificial trees, land surface treatment
Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility?
34. CCC (2012): the 5-year budgets
& international aviation & shipping
43. Some Feedbacks in the Climate System
Heat loss
To space Water
vapour
Snow & ice
High cloud
Low cloud
Carbon
flux
The atmosphere and oceans are fluids that move and interact
49. The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
food, holidays
low C products
Solar, wind
walk/cycle, train/bus
efficient cars
turn it off, use of water
efficient boiler, fridge, TV, etc
insulation, solar hot water
minimise waste & recycle
50. UK Climate Change Committee
• 50:50 chance of global temperature not rising much more than 2°C
• Very small chance of rising 4°C
Global 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050:
just over 2t per person per year
In UK: 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050
Used 2 criteria for global greenhouse gas emissions
56. UKCP09: Change in summer precipitation in 2080s
Mean
Wettest
day
10% 50% 90%
57. ZSL Science and Conservation Events
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS
Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Imperial College London