SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 57
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
ZSL Science and Conservation Events
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS
Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Imperial College London
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Brian Hoskins
Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Carbon Dioxide Measurements over the past year
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Carbon Dioxide Measurements since 1957
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y
proxy
for temp
methane
carbon
dioxide
nitrous
oxide
today
time
IPCC 2007
The Energy Budget of the Earth
341 Wm-2
(water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,…
Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861)
The Energy Budget of the Earth
The Greenhouse Effect
341 Wm-2
396
333
Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
We can be very confident that this rise in carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is due to the activities of humans
land use change
emissions of greenhouse gases,
principally by burning coal, oil & gas
If 100t of carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere
atmospheric content will be 40t greater after 20 years
35t greater after 100 years
25t greater after 1000 years
Estimated causes of the current imbalance
in the energy budget of Planet Earth
IPCC 2007
Global temperature
Global temperatures and 20 year running average
20-year
Running average
°C
Other evidence of a warming climate
Global
sea level
Satellite 1991-
National Snow & Ice Data Center
1979-2000
average
September 2012 Arctic
sea ice
Natural &
anthropogenic forcings
14 models
58 simulations
Natural forcings only
5 models
19 simulations
Evaluation of climate models on 20th century climate
Annual precipitation
Observation
Average of
all models
Increase in
solar flux
Increase in
long-lived GHGs
Mean Temperature changes in models for changed conditions
height
latitude
IPCC AR4 WGp1 Ch8
Projections: globally averaged surface Temperature
IPCC 2007
Projected changes for end of century – unconstrained emissions
Dec –Feb Temperature Dec –Feb precipitation
Decadal Temperature trends at end of 21st century (A1B)
Ed Hawkins
Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003
(mean of 4 stations) Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336
2010 Russian Heat Wave Barriopedro 2011
Frequency of occurrence of
local T anomalies/local standard deviation of T
Hansen et al 2012
Extreme Summer Heat in the Past Decade
2012 US summer
Temperature ºF
Rain %
Cold winter extremes of the past few years
Winter 2009/10
Eurasian cold
16 Nov- 25 Dec
2010
Dec 2010
Record cold in UK
Acidification of the ocean:
Estimated change in oceanic pH since 1700
Some other Global Environmental Problems
associated with Human Activity
/
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
BAS Column ozone measurements 1956-2007 Satellite views of ozone hole 1996-2012
Future low-level Ozone
concentration – 2090s
60-80 ppb
100-120
Vitousek (1994)
Sulphur deposition risen by 2-3
Aerosols: the Asian Brown Cloud
Drivers of Change in Biodiversity & Ecosystems
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The anthropogenic climate change problem
The impacts derived from climate models are what are likely to occur if we are lucky -
increasing chance of crossing thresholds in the climate &/or natural or social systems
Context: growing world population
need for development
changing diet
increased demand for food, water & energy
other global environmental changes
Impacts: water supply
flooding
ecosystems
agriculture
coastal erosion & flooding
health
ecosystems
“Climate Disruption” rather than “Global Warming”
Tackling the climate change problem
By continuing to emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
we are performing a very dangerous experiment with planet Earth.
1. Adapt
2. Do something else to compensate: remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
reduce the sun’s energy reaching us
3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases:
mitigation
What can we do?
Mitigation
UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008)
• Commitment for at least 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050
• Established system of legally binding 5-year “carbon budgets”
• Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to advise, monitor & report
International
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol,
Conference of the Parties, …Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha….
Pledged: make 2015 agreement to start in 2020
EU 20% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2020,
30/40% by 2030? 2050 objective 80-95%
Many state or national targets e.g. China
Mitigation: UK Climate Change Committee
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
GtCO2e
Year
2016:4%
2016:3%low
2016:3%high
2016:1.5%
A1B
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
°Cabovepre-industrial Year
2016:4%low
90th percentile
central model
estimate
10th pecentile
2 Criteria: 50:50 chance of not getting much above 2ºC
negligible chance of getting to 4ºC
Global 50% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050: 2.1-2.6 t CO2e per person
In UK: 80% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050 -enshrined in UK law
The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
Concluding Comments
A dangerous experiment:
By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a large risk
that climate change may make life very difficult for our species & others
Uncertainties in likely changes in local and regional climate change & in how the
natural world will cope with a changing climate lead to many questions for
those concerned with the future of the natural world.
Mitigation of climate change to levels that significantly reduce the risk
are possible and are likely to be beneficial in many other respects.
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Brian Hoskins
Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Past climate variation on 50K and 5K time-scales:
Greenland ice accumulation rate
Jacobsen et al 2000
B1
A1B
A2
2011-30 2046-65 2080-99
Surface T projections for different periods and scenarios
IPCC 2003
“Geo-engineering” suggestions
Solar Radiation
Top of
Atmosphere
Surface
Aerosol
Scattering
Cloud Albedo
Solar Interceptor
Grassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo
Level 1 –
Space
Level 2 –
Stratosphere
Level 3 –
Troposphere
Level 4 -
Surface
2. Solar Radiation Management: reduce solar energy at surface
1. Carbon Dioxide Removal: remove from the atmosphere
fertilise the ocean
artificial trees, land surface treatment
Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility?
CCC (2012): the 5-year budgets
& international aviation & shipping
CCC (2011): achieving the 2050 target
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
The Global Energy Budget
Greenhouse gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone…
Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861),…
Global temperature
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Some Feedbacks in the Climate System
Heat loss
To space Water
vapour
Snow & ice
High cloud
Low cloud
Carbon
flux
The atmosphere and oceans are fluids that move and interact
Projections: globally averaged surface warming
IPCC 2007
Different scenarios
Projected temperature in 80 years time
2060-99 (SRESA1B) – 1960-99 (20C3M)
Winter 850hPa zonal wind change
T. Woollings 2010
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
food, holidays
low C products
Solar, wind
walk/cycle, train/bus
efficient cars
turn it off, use of water
efficient boiler, fridge, TV, etc
insulation, solar hot water
minimise waste & recycle
UK Climate Change Committee
• 50:50 chance of global temperature not rising much more than 2°C
• Very small chance of rising 4°C
Global 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050:
just over 2t per person per year
In UK: 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050
Used 2 criteria for global greenhouse gas emissions
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Achieving targets: sensitivity to parameters
Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013
Warmest
day
UKCP09: Change in summer temperatures in 2080s
Mean
10% 50% 90%
UKCP09: Change in summer precipitation in 2080s
Mean
Wettest
day
10% 50% 90%
ZSL Science and Conservation Events
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Stamford Raffles Lecture
A very dangerous experiment with our planet
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS
Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Imperial College London

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...IJSRD
 
Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...
Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...
Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...Ammad baig
 
A presentation on effect on greenhouse gas
A presentation on effect on greenhouse gasA presentation on effect on greenhouse gas
A presentation on effect on greenhouse gasNitish Xavier Tirkey
 
DP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon Cycling
DP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon CyclingDP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon Cycling
DP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon CyclingR. Price
 
A review climate change and carbon capture
A review climate change and carbon captureA review climate change and carbon capture
A review climate change and carbon captureProdeep Mookerjee
 
Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)
Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)
Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)Aira Bellen
 
Acid rain greenhouse effect
Acid rain greenhouse effectAcid rain greenhouse effect
Acid rain greenhouse effectAshrith N Shetty
 
C reservoir & c cycle
C reservoir & c cycleC reservoir & c cycle
C reservoir & c cycleAnkudas
 
Introducation of global warming
Introducation of global warmingIntroducation of global warming
Introducation of global warmingneetusingh01
 
Global warming and water resource
Global warming and water resourceGlobal warming and water resource
Global warming and water resourceAhmed Marei
 
Unit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_efforts
Unit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_effortsUnit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_efforts
Unit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_effortsHarish kumar Lekkala
 
Ozone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global Warming
Ozone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global WarmingOzone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global Warming
Ozone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global WarmingNeetha Joseph
 

Was ist angesagt? (17)

Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
 
Green house gases
Green house gasesGreen house gases
Green house gases
 
Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...
Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...
Climate change presentation, department of city & regional planning uet lahor...
 
Carbon-dioxide as a pollutant
Carbon-dioxide as a pollutantCarbon-dioxide as a pollutant
Carbon-dioxide as a pollutant
 
A presentation on effect on greenhouse gas
A presentation on effect on greenhouse gasA presentation on effect on greenhouse gas
A presentation on effect on greenhouse gas
 
Globalwarming
GlobalwarmingGlobalwarming
Globalwarming
 
DP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon Cycling
DP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon CyclingDP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon Cycling
DP Bio Topic 4-3 Carbon Cycling
 
Controling Co2
Controling Co2Controling Co2
Controling Co2
 
A review climate change and carbon capture
A review climate change and carbon captureA review climate change and carbon capture
A review climate change and carbon capture
 
Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)
Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)
Chapter 9 (ENVISCI - CUNNINGHAM)
 
Acid rain greenhouse effect
Acid rain greenhouse effectAcid rain greenhouse effect
Acid rain greenhouse effect
 
C reservoir & c cycle
C reservoir & c cycleC reservoir & c cycle
C reservoir & c cycle
 
Introducation of global warming
Introducation of global warmingIntroducation of global warming
Introducation of global warming
 
Global warming and water resource
Global warming and water resourceGlobal warming and water resource
Global warming and water resource
 
6. global warming
6. global warming6. global warming
6. global warming
 
Unit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_efforts
Unit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_effortsUnit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_efforts
Unit 5 global_environmental_problems_and_global_efforts
 
Ozone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global Warming
Ozone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global WarmingOzone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global Warming
Ozone Layer Depletion, Greenhouse Effect & Global Warming
 

Andere mochten auch

Métodos de estudio
Métodos de estudioMétodos de estudio
Métodos de estudiosirclaudios
 
Tecnología en la medicina
Tecnología en la medicina Tecnología en la medicina
Tecnología en la medicina Stalin_3101
 
Marpol articulos
Marpol articulosMarpol articulos
Marpol articulosVilsa Tupil
 
Mobile technology
Mobile technologyMobile technology
Mobile technologyKim Estes
 
Die Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-Ebene
Die Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-EbeneDie Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-Ebene
Die Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-EbeneSPOEPinsdorf
 
Creating Formulas in Excel
Creating Formulas in ExcelCreating Formulas in Excel
Creating Formulas in ExcelKim Estes
 
Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?
Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?
Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?Pierrot Caron
 
Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist
Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist
Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist Pierrot Caron
 

Andere mochten auch (11)

Métodos de estudio
Métodos de estudioMétodos de estudio
Métodos de estudio
 
Tecnología en la medicina
Tecnología en la medicina Tecnología en la medicina
Tecnología en la medicina
 
Directions16_Mind-The-Gap
Directions16_Mind-The-GapDirections16_Mind-The-Gap
Directions16_Mind-The-Gap
 
Marpol articulos
Marpol articulosMarpol articulos
Marpol articulos
 
Mobile technology
Mobile technologyMobile technology
Mobile technology
 
Presentación1
Presentación1Presentación1
Presentación1
 
Die Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-Ebene
Die Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-EbeneDie Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-Ebene
Die Ergebnisse der letzten Wahlen auf Gemeinde-, Landes-, Bundes- und EU-Ebene
 
Tik 11
Tik 11Tik 11
Tik 11
 
Creating Formulas in Excel
Creating Formulas in ExcelCreating Formulas in Excel
Creating Formulas in Excel
 
Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?
Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?
Qu'est ce que le monde réel ?
 
Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist
Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist
Chapitre 29 - VIII. L’antéchrist
 

Ähnlich wie Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013

Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)
Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)
Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)UNDP Eurasia
 
Climate Change and Ozone Loss
Climate Change and Ozone LossClimate Change and Ozone Loss
Climate Change and Ozone LossShohail Choudhury
 
Global change Mr. Payai john
Global change Mr. Payai johnGlobal change Mr. Payai john
Global change Mr. Payai johnPayai John Manyok
 
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4   Attribution of climate changeLesson 4   Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate changeDr. P.B.Dharmasena
 
Climate change lecture martin todd
Climate change lecture martin toddClimate change lecture martin todd
Climate change lecture martin toddAnna Watson
 
Global Warning Final
Global Warning FinalGlobal Warning Final
Global Warning FinalAnkush Telkar
 
Environmental changes kartavya.pptx
Environmental changes kartavya.pptxEnvironmental changes kartavya.pptx
Environmental changes kartavya.pptxKush564255
 
Global climate change and us environmental law power point presentation fi...
Global climate change and us environmental law   power point presentation  fi...Global climate change and us environmental law   power point presentation  fi...
Global climate change and us environmental law power point presentation fi...Sam Bleicher
 
Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?
Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?
Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?InvVest
 
Green house effect.pdf
Green house effect.pdfGreen house effect.pdf
Green house effect.pdfAyyan31
 
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...IJSRD
 
greenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdf
greenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdfgreenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdf
greenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdfUmeHabiba359497
 

Ähnlich wie Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013 (20)

Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)
Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)
Climate change 101 - Introduction to Climate Change Science (UNDP presentation)
 
Gw Final
Gw FinalGw Final
Gw Final
 
Climate Change and Ozone Loss
Climate Change and Ozone LossClimate Change and Ozone Loss
Climate Change and Ozone Loss
 
Global change Mr. Payai john
Global change Mr. Payai johnGlobal change Mr. Payai john
Global change Mr. Payai john
 
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4   Attribution of climate changeLesson 4   Attribution of climate change
Lesson 4 Attribution of climate change
 
Climate change lecture martin todd
Climate change lecture martin toddClimate change lecture martin todd
Climate change lecture martin todd
 
Global Warming
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Global Warming
 
Anexo informe Carbon Traning english version
Anexo informe Carbon Traning english versionAnexo informe Carbon Traning english version
Anexo informe Carbon Traning english version
 
Global Warning Final
Global Warning FinalGlobal Warning Final
Global Warning Final
 
Environmental changes kartavya.pptx
Environmental changes kartavya.pptxEnvironmental changes kartavya.pptx
Environmental changes kartavya.pptx
 
Global warming and agriculture
Global warming and agricultureGlobal warming and agriculture
Global warming and agriculture
 
Global climate change and us environmental law power point presentation fi...
Global climate change and us environmental law   power point presentation  fi...Global climate change and us environmental law   power point presentation  fi...
Global climate change and us environmental law power point presentation fi...
 
Co2 and climate change
Co2 and climate changeCo2 and climate change
Co2 and climate change
 
Climate Change and CCS
Climate Change and CCSClimate Change and CCS
Climate Change and CCS
 
Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?
Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?
Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?
 
Green house effect.pdf
Green house effect.pdfGreen house effect.pdf
Green house effect.pdf
 
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
Mitigation Strategies to Greenhouse Gas Emission Control: A Database for Emis...
 
M38 presentation
M38 presentationM38 presentation
M38 presentation
 
Green house effect
Green house effectGreen house effect
Green house effect
 
greenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdf
greenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdfgreenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdf
greenhouseeffect-141116104338-conversion-gate02 (1).pdf
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability Adventure
OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability AdventureOpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability Adventure
OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability AdventureEric D. Schabell
 
Videogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdf
Videogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdfVideogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdf
Videogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdfinfogdgmi
 
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.YounusS2
 
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019IES VE
 
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration WorkflowsIgniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration WorkflowsSafe Software
 
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024SkyPlanner
 
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfJamie (Taka) Wang
 
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDEADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDELiveplex
 
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a WebsiteCOMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Websitedgelyza
 
COMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online Collaboration
COMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online CollaborationCOMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online Collaboration
COMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online Collaborationbruanjhuli
 
Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024
Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024
Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024D Cloud Solutions
 
Bird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystem
Bird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystemBird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystem
Bird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystemAsko Soukka
 
Using IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve Decarbonization
Using IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve DecarbonizationUsing IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve Decarbonization
Using IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve DecarbonizationIES VE
 
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity WebinarAI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity WebinarPrecisely
 
NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 Workshop
NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 WorkshopNIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 Workshop
NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 WorkshopBachir Benyammi
 
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdfNanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdfPedro Manuel
 
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesAI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesMd Hossain Ali
 
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7DianaGray10
 
Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond Ontologies
Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond OntologiesLinked Data in Production: Moving Beyond Ontologies
Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond OntologiesDavid Newbury
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability Adventure
OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability AdventureOpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability Adventure
OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability Adventure
 
Videogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdf
Videogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdfVideogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdf
Videogame localization & technology_ how to enhance the power of translation.pdf
 
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
 
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
IESVE Software for Florida Code Compliance Using ASHRAE 90.1-2019
 
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration WorkflowsIgniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
 
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
 
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
activity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdfactivity_diagram_combine_v4_20190827.pdf
 
20230104 - machine vision
20230104 - machine vision20230104 - machine vision
20230104 - machine vision
 
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDEADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
ADOPTING WEB 3 FOR YOUR BUSINESS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE
 
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a WebsiteCOMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
COMPUTER 10 Lesson 8 - Building a Website
 
COMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online Collaboration
COMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online CollaborationCOMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online Collaboration
COMPUTER 10: Lesson 7 - File Storage and Online Collaboration
 
Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024
Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024
Artificial Intelligence & SEO Trends for 2024
 
Bird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystem
Bird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystemBird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystem
Bird eye's view on Camunda open source ecosystem
 
Using IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve Decarbonization
Using IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve DecarbonizationUsing IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve Decarbonization
Using IESVE for Loads, Sizing and Heat Pump Modeling to Achieve Decarbonization
 
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity WebinarAI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
AI You Can Trust - Ensuring Success with Data Integrity Webinar
 
NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 Workshop
NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 WorkshopNIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 Workshop
NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 Workshop
 
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdfNanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
 
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesAI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
 
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
 
Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond Ontologies
Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond OntologiesLinked Data in Production: Moving Beyond Ontologies
Linked Data in Production: Moving Beyond Ontologies
 

Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013

  • 1. ZSL Science and Conservation Events Tuesday 18 June 2013 Stamford Raffles Lecture A very dangerous experiment with our planet Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College London
  • 2. A very dangerous experiment with our planet Brian Hoskins Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
  • 3. Carbon Dioxide Measurements over the past year Mauna Loa, Hawaii
  • 4. Carbon Dioxide Measurements since 1957 Mauna Loa, Hawaii
  • 5. Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y proxy for temp methane carbon dioxide nitrous oxide today time IPCC 2007
  • 6. The Energy Budget of the Earth 341 Wm-2
  • 7. (water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861) The Energy Budget of the Earth The Greenhouse Effect 341 Wm-2 396 333
  • 8. Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere We can be very confident that this rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to the activities of humans land use change emissions of greenhouse gases, principally by burning coal, oil & gas If 100t of carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere atmospheric content will be 40t greater after 20 years 35t greater after 100 years 25t greater after 1000 years
  • 9. Estimated causes of the current imbalance in the energy budget of Planet Earth IPCC 2007
  • 11. Global temperatures and 20 year running average 20-year Running average °C
  • 12. Other evidence of a warming climate Global sea level Satellite 1991- National Snow & Ice Data Center 1979-2000 average September 2012 Arctic sea ice
  • 13. Natural & anthropogenic forcings 14 models 58 simulations Natural forcings only 5 models 19 simulations Evaluation of climate models on 20th century climate Annual precipitation Observation Average of all models
  • 14. Increase in solar flux Increase in long-lived GHGs Mean Temperature changes in models for changed conditions height latitude IPCC AR4 WGp1 Ch8
  • 15. Projections: globally averaged surface Temperature IPCC 2007
  • 16. Projected changes for end of century – unconstrained emissions Dec –Feb Temperature Dec –Feb precipitation
  • 17. Decadal Temperature trends at end of 21st century (A1B) Ed Hawkins
  • 18. Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003 (mean of 4 stations) Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336 2010 Russian Heat Wave Barriopedro 2011 Frequency of occurrence of local T anomalies/local standard deviation of T Hansen et al 2012 Extreme Summer Heat in the Past Decade 2012 US summer Temperature ºF Rain %
  • 19. Cold winter extremes of the past few years Winter 2009/10 Eurasian cold 16 Nov- 25 Dec 2010 Dec 2010 Record cold in UK
  • 20. Acidification of the ocean: Estimated change in oceanic pH since 1700 Some other Global Environmental Problems associated with Human Activity
  • 21. / Stratospheric Ozone Depletion BAS Column ozone measurements 1956-2007 Satellite views of ozone hole 1996-2012
  • 22. Future low-level Ozone concentration – 2090s 60-80 ppb 100-120 Vitousek (1994) Sulphur deposition risen by 2-3 Aerosols: the Asian Brown Cloud
  • 23. Drivers of Change in Biodiversity & Ecosystems Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  • 24. The anthropogenic climate change problem The impacts derived from climate models are what are likely to occur if we are lucky - increasing chance of crossing thresholds in the climate &/or natural or social systems Context: growing world population need for development changing diet increased demand for food, water & energy other global environmental changes Impacts: water supply flooding ecosystems agriculture coastal erosion & flooding health ecosystems “Climate Disruption” rather than “Global Warming”
  • 25. Tackling the climate change problem By continuing to emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are performing a very dangerous experiment with planet Earth. 1. Adapt 2. Do something else to compensate: remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere reduce the sun’s energy reaching us 3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation What can we do?
  • 26. Mitigation UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008) • Commitment for at least 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 • Established system of legally binding 5-year “carbon budgets” • Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to advise, monitor & report International UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol, Conference of the Parties, …Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha…. Pledged: make 2015 agreement to start in 2020 EU 20% emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2020, 30/40% by 2030? 2050 objective 80-95% Many state or national targets e.g. China
  • 27. Mitigation: UK Climate Change Committee 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 GtCO2e Year 2016:4% 2016:3%low 2016:3%high 2016:1.5% A1B 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 °Cabovepre-industrial Year 2016:4%low 90th percentile central model estimate 10th pecentile 2 Criteria: 50:50 chance of not getting much above 2ºC negligible chance of getting to 4ºC Global 50% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050: 2.1-2.6 t CO2e per person In UK: 80% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050 -enshrined in UK law
  • 28. The UK 80% Reduction Challenge
  • 29. Concluding Comments A dangerous experiment: By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a large risk that climate change may make life very difficult for our species & others Uncertainties in likely changes in local and regional climate change & in how the natural world will cope with a changing climate lead to many questions for those concerned with the future of the natural world. Mitigation of climate change to levels that significantly reduce the risk are possible and are likely to be beneficial in many other respects.
  • 30. A very dangerous experiment with our planet Brian Hoskins Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
  • 31. Past climate variation on 50K and 5K time-scales: Greenland ice accumulation rate Jacobsen et al 2000
  • 32. B1 A1B A2 2011-30 2046-65 2080-99 Surface T projections for different periods and scenarios IPCC 2003
  • 33. “Geo-engineering” suggestions Solar Radiation Top of Atmosphere Surface Aerosol Scattering Cloud Albedo Solar Interceptor Grassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo Level 1 – Space Level 2 – Stratosphere Level 3 – Troposphere Level 4 - Surface 2. Solar Radiation Management: reduce solar energy at surface 1. Carbon Dioxide Removal: remove from the atmosphere fertilise the ocean artificial trees, land surface treatment Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility?
  • 34. CCC (2012): the 5-year budgets & international aviation & shipping
  • 35. CCC (2011): achieving the 2050 target
  • 40. The Global Energy Budget Greenhouse gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861),…
  • 43. Some Feedbacks in the Climate System Heat loss To space Water vapour Snow & ice High cloud Low cloud Carbon flux The atmosphere and oceans are fluids that move and interact
  • 44. Projections: globally averaged surface warming IPCC 2007 Different scenarios
  • 45. Projected temperature in 80 years time
  • 46. 2060-99 (SRESA1B) – 1960-99 (20C3M) Winter 850hPa zonal wind change T. Woollings 2010
  • 49. The UK 80% Reduction Challenge food, holidays low C products Solar, wind walk/cycle, train/bus efficient cars turn it off, use of water efficient boiler, fridge, TV, etc insulation, solar hot water minimise waste & recycle
  • 50. UK Climate Change Committee • 50:50 chance of global temperature not rising much more than 2°C • Very small chance of rising 4°C Global 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050: just over 2t per person per year In UK: 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 Used 2 criteria for global greenhouse gas emissions
  • 55. Warmest day UKCP09: Change in summer temperatures in 2080s Mean 10% 50% 90%
  • 56. UKCP09: Change in summer precipitation in 2080s Mean Wettest day 10% 50% 90%
  • 57. ZSL Science and Conservation Events Tuesday 18 June 2013 Stamford Raffles Lecture A very dangerous experiment with our planet Professor Sir Brian Hoskins CBE FRS Director of Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College London