1. CLIMATE RISK MANGEMENT IN WEST AFRICA
communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasting to
improve farmers’ management decision in Kaffrine, Senegal
Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM
Robert Zougmoré, CCAFS

2. “ The impact of climate change will fall disproportionately on
the world’s poorest countries, many of them here in Africa.
’
Poor people already live on the front lines of pollution, disaster,
and the degradation of resources and land. For them,
adaptation is a matter of sheer survival ”
Kofi Annan
Burkina, flooding 2009, courtesy by Guillaume

3. CLIMATE IMPACTS
Rain-fed agriculture : shift in seasonality, total,
onset, distribution (food security, population)
climate related disease : vector born diseases and
water related diseases
hydropower management : dam, river flow,
flood management in a rapid and unplanned
urbanization

4. Climate information for development
Risk associated with climate variability
Better management using climate information
Reduce vulnerability : poverty, health, hunger, …
Learning process : decision making tool

5. Many efforts made on climate research
PRESANOR
PRES-AO (11)
GHACOF (22)
PRES-AC (3)
SARCOF (11)
Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI, June 2009

6. EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
IN KAFFRINE, SENEGAL

7. Building a team of stakeholders:
multi-disciplinary approach
Ministry of agriculture extensions (SDDR, 5 participants)
Volunteers from World Vision (WV, 5)
Agricultural advisers (ANCAR, 5)
National agricultural research institute (ISRA, 1)
National Farmers Union (Japandoo, 15)
Organization of women producers (3)
Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation 2)
Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS, 5)
Individual farmers (13)

8. Building trust for a long partnership
Building on local knowledge:
High humidity and high temperatures
can explain some of their indicators
“Stronger monsoon”
« When the wind is changing
direction to fetch the rain »
Establishing common ground :
Doing quite the same thing BUT
Better observing system
More reliable storage capacity (use of
numbers, maps, computers, …)

9. SETTING THE STAGE
Using historical forecast (memory):
Identify wet and dry years
Introduce normal year
Probability shift toward category : RISK
Link to the crop, harvest
Strategies and decision :

10. “Knowledge should precede action”
farmer in kaffrine
team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

11. TRAINING AND DISCUSSIONS

12. TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE :
“WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”

13. WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY IF
YOU’VE FORSEEN A DRY YEAR
• Crop requiring less water
• Short-cycle variety
• Bet on the lowest rainfall
threshold observed in the past
• Reduce cultivated area in the
farm

14. Seasonal forecast communicated to
farmers

15. EVALUATION : FORECAST AND PROCESS
PARTICIPANTS :
33 paysans, services techniques locaux (eaux et forets, ANCAR,
Agriculture, Vision Mondiale, ), organisations paysannes (JAPANDO,
FONGS, …)
THREE GROUPS :
1.17 received and used somehow the seasonal forecast
2.03 received but didn’t used it
3.13 never seen or heard of the seasonal forecast
QUESTIONS ASKED
1. What made you take a different strategy last year : say anything
2. Problems encountered ?
3. Recommandations ?

16. WHAT WE LEARNT
Partnership and trust (social dimension)
Invest on the long term and multi-disciplinary
(complex and complicate)
Communication, communication,
communication (content, format, means,
medium)
Ideally has a package :
Climate forecast : seasonal and onset
Opportunity : access to fund (wet forecast)
Alternative : index insurance (dry forecast)

17. THANK YOU