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Brand Positioning – Attributes

               February 1, 2005




  Cola Wars: Pepsi versus Coca Cola

1. What attributes and benefits do soft-drinks
   offer? Which are physical and which are
   psychological? Which are "essential" and
   which are consumers willing to be flexible on?

2. Why did people react so strongly when New
   Coke was introduced?

3. Comment on the design of the New Coke
   study – what would you have changed?

                                          Case Discussion




                                                            1
STRATEGIC                      MARKET                               MARKET                         BRAND
    QUESTIONS                     DEFINITION                         SEGMENTATION                    POSITIONING
What geographic area       e.g., domestic US
  will we operate in?

What timeframe have        e.g., calendar 2003, 4
  we in mind?
                                                                                                Brand with attributes
What will we offer?        Some version of product                                              responsive to DCCg
                              category X                       Identify kinds of
To whom will we offer      Define prospects                    demand-creating condition        Prospects who experience
   it?                     e.g., people who buy/use               (DCCa - n);                      DCCg, i.e., targets
                              product category X or            Assess state of want-
                              engage in corresponding             satisfaction for each kind;
                              activity Y.                      Order DCC with a view to         Specific price (e.g., $1.79)
                                                                  roi and choosing DCCx to
What price will we         State broad price band                 target
  charge?                  (e.g., discount, premium)

How will we let them       State tentative ideas for                                            Media vehicles,
  know about our              media type                                                          Attentional strategy,
  offering?                                                                                       Brand claims

How/where will we          State tentative ideas for                                            Specific exchange venues
  engage in exchange          exchange venue type
  with them?

Whom will we compete       State competitors implicated                                         Competitors
  with?                       by choices on other                                               Implicated by DCCg
                              dimensions




         Conceptualizing User Wants


           Personal Systems                                                Brands As
                                                                           Perceived
                                                                           (Brand Beliefs);
                                   Motivating           Desired            Brand
                                                                                                  Action,
                                   Conditions           Attributes         Consideration
                                                                                                  Including
                                                                           Set;
                                                                                                  Brand Use
                                                                           Brand
           Environmental                                                   Preference
           Systems                                                         Ordering



            Ex-Ante
            Analysis



                                                    Ex-Post
                                                    Analysis



                                                                                                                       Theory




                                                                                                                                2
How to Learn
      What Customers Want?
Ask Direct Questions about preference:

  What brand do you prefer?
  What Interest Rate would you like?
  What Annual Fee would you like?
  What Credit Limit would you like?

Answers often trivial and unenlightening (e.g.
  respondents prefer low fees to high fees, higher
  credit limits to low credit limits)


                                           Conjoint Overview
                                                 Introduction




 Analysis for Brand Positioning
Conjoint analysis is a regression based
 technique where:
  – you measure consumers’ preferences,
  – by confronting them with different product
    profiles that contain tradeoffs and
  – letting them rate their relative preferences.
Dependent variable: Relative Preference
  Statements
Independent variables: Attributes

                                            Conjoint Analysis




                                                                3
Basic Assumption
Product is a bundle of attributes who importance is
  driven by customer needs.
  – Should we offer our business travelers more room
    space or a fax machine in their room?
  – Should we offer more leisure-time activities (sauna,
    exercise room, tennis courts) or more food related
    services (several dining options, vending machines,
    in-room kitchen facilities)?
  – Should we use a steel or aluminium casing to
    increase customer preference for our new extrusion
    equipment?

                                                Conjoint Analysis




    Outboard Engine Attributes
Brand Name                   Durability
  Evinrude, Force,           Vibration and Noise
  Johnson, Mariner,
  Mercury, Yamaha
                             Acceleration
Price                        Speed
Fuel Economy                 Emissions
Reliability                  Technology




                                                Conjoint Analysis




                                                                    4
Credit Card Attributes
Bank                        Annual Fee
  current, local, out-of-     $50, $25, $0
  state                     Rebates
Interest Rates                1%, .5%, none
  8%, 7%, 6% , variable     Credit Line
Reward Programs               $2000, $5000
  free checking, greater    Grace Period
  interest on savings
                              45 days, none



                                              Conjoint Analysis




  Mathematical Representation
         y = x1β1 + x2β2 + x3β3 + ... + ε
                       or
                   y = Xβ + ε
where
  y = the overall value of the product
  X = product attributes
  β = the value placed on the attributes

                                              Conjoint Analysis




                                                                  5
How Does Conjoint Analysis
            Work?
We vary the product features (independent
  variables) to build many (usually 12 or more)
  product concepts
We ask respondents to rate/rank those product
  concepts (dependent variable)
Based on the respondents’ evaluations of the
  product concepts, we figure out how much
  unique value (utility) each of the features added
(Regress dependent variable on independent
  variables; betas equal part worth utilities.)


                                            Conjoint Overview
                                             Conjoint Analysis




 First Step: Create Attribute List
Attributes assumed to be independent (Brand,
  Speed, Color, Price, etc.)
Each attribute has varying degrees, or “levels”
  Brand: Coke, Pepsi, Sprite
  Speed: 5 pages per minute, 10 pages per minute
  Color: Red, Blue, Green, Black
Each level is assumed to be mutually exclusive of
  the others (a product has one and only one level
  level of that attribute)



                                            Conjoint Attributes




                                                                  6
Rules for Formulating
          Attribute Levels
Levels are assumed to be mutually exclusive

  Attribute: Add-on features

  level 1: Sunroof
  level 2: GPS System
  level 3: Video Screen

  If define levels in this way, you cannot determine the
     value of providing two or three of these features at the
     same time


                                                             Conjoint Attributes




           Traditional Conjoint:
           Full Profile Analysis

           Using a 100-pt scale where 0 means definitely
          would NOT and 100 means definitely WOULD…

                          How likely are you to purchase…

                                1997 Honda Accord
                              Automatic transmission
                                No antilock brakes
                            Driver and passenger airbag
                             Blue exterior/Black interior
                                      $18,900

                            Your Answer:___________

                                                            Traditional Conjoint




                                                                                   7
Strengths of Traditional Conjoint
• Good for both product design and pricing
  issues
• Can be administered on paper,
  computer/internet
• Shows products in full-profile, which many
  argue mimics real-world
• Can be used even with small sample sizes


                                   Traditional Conjoint




        Credit Card Attributes
Brand
  MasterCard, Visa, Discover
Interest Rate
  18%, 15%, 12%
Annual Fee
  None, $10, $20
Credit Limit
  $1000, $2500, $5000


                                        Conjoint Data




                                                          8
How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

              MasterCard

              18% interest

             No annual fee

            $1000 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (1)



                                    Conjoint Data




How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

              MasterCard

              12% interest

             $20 annual fee

            $5000 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (2)



                                    Conjoint Data




                                                    9
How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

                  Visa

              18% interest

             $10 annual fee

            $5000 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (3)



                                    Conjoint Data




How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

                Discover

              18% interest

             $20 annual fee

            $2500 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (4)



                                    Conjoint Data




                                                    10
How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

                Discover

              12% interest

             $10 annual fee

            $1000 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (5)



                                    Conjoint Data




How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

                Discover

              15% interest

             No annual fee

            $5000 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (6)



                                    Conjoint Data




                                                    11
How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

                  Visa

              12% interest

             No annual fee

            $2500 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (7)



                                    Conjoint Data




How much do you like this credit card
offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

              MasterCard

              15% interest

             $10 annual fee

            $2500 credit limit



          Score= ___________
                                          (8)



                                    Conjoint Data




                                                    12
How much do you like this credit card
    offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent

                            Visa

                       15% interest

                      $20 annual fee

                    $1000 credit limit



                  Score= ___________
                                                            (9)



                                                      Conjoint Data




 Part-Worths of Attribute-Levels
Some product attributes are “defining”
   All credit cards have a brand name, interest rate and
     credit limit.
   Not possible to estimate importance of a defining
     attribute, only importance of changes in the attribute-
     levels (e.g., 12% vs. 15% interest rate).

Other product attributes are “optional”
   Apartments need not have balconies, so a natural zero
    “0” can occur for the attribute.

Implication: One level of each attribute is not
  estimable
                                                      Conjoint Data




                                                                      13
Conjoint Data

Question   Rating   Visa   Discover   15%   12%   $10   $20   $2,500   $5,000
   1                 0        0        0     0     0     0       0        0
   2                 0        0        0     1     0     1       0        1
   3                 1        0        0     0     1     0       0        1
   4                 0        1        0     0     0     1       1        0
   5                 0        1        0     1     1     0       0        0
   6                 0        1        1     0     0     0       0        1
   7                 1        0        0     1     0     0       1        0
   8                 0        0        1     0     1     0       1        0
   9                 1        0        1     0     0     1       0        0



    Default Card: MasterCard; 18% interest;
    No annual fee; $1000 credit limit.

    All importances (part-worths) measured relative to these levels.
                                                                 Conjoint Data




                              My Ratings

Question   Rating   Visa   Discover   15%   12%   $10   $20   $2,500   $5,000
   1         4       0        0        0     0     0     0       0        0
   2         7       0        0        0     1     0     1       0        1
   3         8       1        0        0     0     1     0       0        1
   4         5       0        1        0     0     0     1       1        0
   5         4       0        1        0     1     1     0       0        0
   6         8       0        1        1     0     0     0       0        1
   7         9       1        0        0     1     0     0       1        0
   8         6       0        0        1     0     1     0       1        0
   9         6       1        0        1     0     0     1       0        0



    Default Card: MasterCard; 18% interest;
    No annual fee; $1000 credit limit.

    All importances (part-worths) measured relative to these levels.
                                                                 Conjoint Data




                                                                                 14
Multiple Regression
               y = β0 + β1x1+ … + βkxk + ε

βi = the expected change in the dependent
   variable (y) for a unit change in xi, holding fixed
   the other independent variables (x’s).
Allows for statistical adjustments and couter-
   factual analysis.
Provides a measure of the effect of xj relative to xk.



                                                    Regression Analysis




            Regression Results

 Rating = 4.00 + 2.00 Visa + 0.00 Discover
  +1.00 15% + 1.00 12%
  - 1.00 $10 - 1.00 $20
  + 2.00 $2,500 + 3.00 $5,000
   Default Card: MasterCard; 18% interest;
   No annual fee; $1000 credit limit.

   All importances (part-worths) measured relative to these levels.

                                                    Part-Worth Analysis




                                                                          15
Analysis of Part-Worths
Brand Name:
  MasterCard = 0
  Visa = 2
  Discover = 0


Implication: MasterCard and Discover
  valued equally. Visa valued more.


                                   Part-Worth Analysis




      Analysis of Part-Worths
Interest Rate:
  18% = 0
  15% = 1
  12% = 1

Implication: Consumers are indifferent to a
  15% or 12% rate, but both are preferred to
  an 18% rate.


                                   Part-Worth Analysis




                                                         16
Analysis of Part-Worths
Annual Fee:
   None = 0
   $10 = -1
   $20 = -1

Implication: Consumers are indifferent to a
  $10 or $20 annual fee, but prefer no
  annual fee to either amount.


                                        Part-Worth Analysis




       Analysis of Part-Worths
Credit Limit:
   $1000 = 0
   $2500 = 2
   $5000 = 3


Implication: Consumers prefer a $5000 to either a
  $2500 or $1000 limited. The change from
  $1000 to $2500 is twice as important as the
  chance from $2500 to $5000.



                                        Part-Worth Analysis




                                                              17
Analysis Across Attributes
 Brand Name:       Interest Rate:   Annual Fee:     Credit Limit:
 MasterCard = 0    18% = 0          None = 0        $1000 = 0
 Visa = 2          15% = 1          $10 = -1        $2500 = 2
 Discover = 0      12% = 1          $20 = -1        $5000 = 3


Value of Visa vs. MasterCard = Value of $2500 vs. $1000 Credit Limit

Value of 15% vs. 18% Interest = Value of $0 vs. $10 Annual Fee

Value of $5000 vs. $2500 Credit Limit = Value of 15 vs. 18% Interest


                                                     Part-Worth Analysis




        Attributes Play Two Roles
 Desired attributes are the basis of consideration
  set formation and preference orderings.

 Market Defining
     Attributes that form consideration sets are market
       defining – without them there is no hope of attracting
       a prospect.

 Brand Positioning
     Other attributes play a role in brand positioning –
       consumers are willing to tradeoff one attribute level
       for another.


                                                                 Theory




                                                                           18
Screening Rules
“A Choice Model with Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and
          Compensatory Screening Rules”

Conjunctive rule: alternative must be acceptable
  on all attributes.
Disjunctive rule: alternative must be acceptable on
  a least one attribute.
Compensatory rule: really good attributes can
  make up for really bad attributes.

                                                                                                                      Challenge Paper




A partial listing of offerings and features of digital cameras
from Nov. 2002 Consumer Reports
  A selection of tested products (Within
  types, in performance order)
  Brand & model
  3- TO 5-MEGAPIXEL CAMERAS
  Sony DSC-F707                                           MS               5x          ·                    ·          ·          ·
  Canon PowerShot G2                                      CF               3x          ·                    ·          ·          ·
  Olympus Camedia C-3040 Zoom                             SM               3x          ·          ·                               ·
  Olympus Camedia D-40 Zoom                               SM              2.8x
                                                                                       ·          ·
  Fujifilm FinePix F601 Z                                 SM               3x          ·                    ·          ·
  Sony Cyber-shot DSC-S75                                 MS               3x          ·                    ·          ·          ·
  HP PhotoSmart 812                                       SD               3x
                                                                                                  ·
  Kodak EasyShare DX4900                                  CF               2x                     ·
  Olympus Camedia E-10                                   CF, SM            4x          ·          ·                               ·
  Canon PowerShot S40                                       CF             3x          ·                    ·
  Casio QV-4000                                             CF             3x          ·          ·         ·                     ·
  Kyocera Finecam S4                                        SD             3x          ·                    ·          ·
  Panasonic Lumix DMC-LC5                                   SD             3x          ·                    ·          ·          ·
  Sony Cyber-shot DSC-P71                                   MS             3x
                                                                                                  ·         ·          ·
  Sony CD Mavica MVC-CD400                              CD-R/RW            3x
                                                                                       ·                    ·          ·
  Minolta Dimage S404                                     CF               4x
                                                                                       ·          ·
  Toshiba PDR-3310                                        SD               3x          ·                    ·          ·
  Kyocera Finecam S3                                      SD               2x          ·                    ·          ·
                                                                                                                      Challenge Paper
Source: http://www.consumerreports.org/main/detailv2.jsp?CONTENT%3C%3Ecnt_id=163145&FOLDER%3C%3Efolder_id=162691&bmUID=1034956296813




                                                                                                                                        19
Empirical Application

                Alternatives are described on 8 attributes
     Attribute          Levels                Attribute            Levels
     Basic body style   Low                   Zoom                 None
      and standard      Medium                                     2x
     features           High                                       4x

     Mid-Roll           None                  Viewfinder           Regular
     Change*            Manual                                     Large
                        Automatic             Camera Settings      None
     Annotation*        None                  Feedback             LCD
                        Pre-Set                                    Viewfinder
                        Customized List                            Both
                        Custom List 1         Price                $41 - $499
                        Custom List 2
                        Custom List 3
                                               *Attributes unique to APS cameras at
     Camera Operation   No                     the time of the study
     Feedback*          Yes



                                                                        Challenge Paper




                   Alternative Approach
  Traditional choice model:
    Pr(i) = Pr(xi’β + εi > xk’β + εk                       for all k)

  Proposed choice model:
    Pr(i) = Pr(xi’β + εi > xk’β + εk for all k
                          such that I(xk,Îł) = 1)

                                          Threshold levels


                                                                        Challenge Paper




                                                                                          20
Empirical Application – Conjunctive Model

                            Proportion Screening on Each Attribute
45%
          40%                                                                                                41%
40%

35%

30%

25%                                                                                                 22%
                                                                             19%
20%

15%

10%                 8%
                            6%                                   5%
                                     4%         4%      4%                             4%
5%

0%




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                     *Attributes unique to APS offerings at time of study.                    Challenge Paper




 Empirical Application – Conjunctive Model

                                 Distribution of Price Threshold
          70%
                                                                                             59%
          60%

          50%
                                                                        41%
          40%
                                                         30%
          30%
                                          20%
          20%
                          10%
          10%

               0%
                         <$276        <$356            <$425          <$499                 >$499


   • Respondents who “almost always” take their camera when attending “social
   gatherings away from” home have higher price thresholds.

                                                                                              Challenge Paper




                                                                                                                   21
Empirical Application

                           Findings

        • Conjunctive model fits data best

        • 92% of respondents are forming consideration sets

        • Results show which attributes, which levels, and who is
        screening

       • Respondents tend to screen alternatives using familiar
       attributes

       • After controlling for the their effect in forming consideration
       sets, screening attributes are “less important” than indicated by
       the standard choice model
                                                            Challenge Paper




                  Market Simulations
  Make competitive market scenarios and
   predict which products respondents would
   choose

  Accumulate (aggregate) respondent
   predictions to make “Shares of
   Preference” (some refer to them as
   “market shares”)

                                                          Market Simulators




                                                                              22
Which Color is Preferred?
Consider the following utilities:

                             Blue   Red    Yellow
  Respondent #1              50     40     10
  Respondent #2              0      65     75
  Respondent #3              40     30     20
                             ----   ----   ----
  Average:                   30     45     35

Red has the highest average preference
But, does any one respondent prefer red?



                                                    Market Simulators




        Which Color is Chosen?
Assume each respondent “chooses” preferred color:

                      Blue   Red    Yellow Choice
  Respondent #1       50     40     10      Blue
  Respondent #2       0      65     75      Yellow
  Respondent #3       40     30     20      Blue
                      ----   ----   ----
  Average:            30     45     35

Blue “chosen” twice, Yellow once




                                                    Market Simulators




                                                                        23
Why Conduct Market
             Simulations?
• Simulations better reflect real-world behavior
   – Represent idiosyncratic preferences of segments and
     individuals (remember, you don’t have to appeal to
     the “fat” part of the market to carve out a profitable
     business)
• A “choice laboratory” for testing multitude of real-
  world possibilities
• Results expressed in terms that make sense to
  management and are actionable


                                                 Market Simulators




                                                                     24

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Brand Positioning

  • 1. Brand Positioning – Attributes February 1, 2005 Cola Wars: Pepsi versus Coca Cola 1. What attributes and benefits do soft-drinks offer? Which are physical and which are psychological? Which are "essential" and which are consumers willing to be flexible on? 2. Why did people react so strongly when New Coke was introduced? 3. Comment on the design of the New Coke study – what would you have changed? Case Discussion 1
  • 2. STRATEGIC MARKET MARKET BRAND QUESTIONS DEFINITION SEGMENTATION POSITIONING What geographic area e.g., domestic US will we operate in? What timeframe have e.g., calendar 2003, 4 we in mind? Brand with attributes What will we offer? Some version of product responsive to DCCg category X Identify kinds of To whom will we offer Define prospects demand-creating condition Prospects who experience it? e.g., people who buy/use (DCCa - n); DCCg, i.e., targets product category X or Assess state of want- engage in corresponding satisfaction for each kind; activity Y. Order DCC with a view to Specific price (e.g., $1.79) roi and choosing DCCx to What price will we State broad price band target charge? (e.g., discount, premium) How will we let them State tentative ideas for Media vehicles, know about our media type Attentional strategy, offering? Brand claims How/where will we State tentative ideas for Specific exchange venues engage in exchange exchange venue type with them? Whom will we compete State competitors implicated Competitors with? by choices on other Implicated by DCCg dimensions Conceptualizing User Wants Personal Systems Brands As Perceived (Brand Beliefs); Motivating Desired Brand Action, Conditions Attributes Consideration Including Set; Brand Use Brand Environmental Preference Systems Ordering Ex-Ante Analysis Ex-Post Analysis Theory 2
  • 3. How to Learn What Customers Want? Ask Direct Questions about preference: What brand do you prefer? What Interest Rate would you like? What Annual Fee would you like? What Credit Limit would you like? Answers often trivial and unenlightening (e.g. respondents prefer low fees to high fees, higher credit limits to low credit limits) Conjoint Overview Introduction Analysis for Brand Positioning Conjoint analysis is a regression based technique where: – you measure consumers’ preferences, – by confronting them with different product profiles that contain tradeoffs and – letting them rate their relative preferences. Dependent variable: Relative Preference Statements Independent variables: Attributes Conjoint Analysis 3
  • 4. Basic Assumption Product is a bundle of attributes who importance is driven by customer needs. – Should we offer our business travelers more room space or a fax machine in their room? – Should we offer more leisure-time activities (sauna, exercise room, tennis courts) or more food related services (several dining options, vending machines, in-room kitchen facilities)? – Should we use a steel or aluminium casing to increase customer preference for our new extrusion equipment? Conjoint Analysis Outboard Engine Attributes Brand Name Durability Evinrude, Force, Vibration and Noise Johnson, Mariner, Mercury, Yamaha Acceleration Price Speed Fuel Economy Emissions Reliability Technology Conjoint Analysis 4
  • 5. Credit Card Attributes Bank Annual Fee current, local, out-of- $50, $25, $0 state Rebates Interest Rates 1%, .5%, none 8%, 7%, 6% , variable Credit Line Reward Programs $2000, $5000 free checking, greater Grace Period interest on savings 45 days, none Conjoint Analysis Mathematical Representation y = x1β1 + x2β2 + x3β3 + ... + ε or y = Xβ + ε where y = the overall value of the product X = product attributes β = the value placed on the attributes Conjoint Analysis 5
  • 6. How Does Conjoint Analysis Work? We vary the product features (independent variables) to build many (usually 12 or more) product concepts We ask respondents to rate/rank those product concepts (dependent variable) Based on the respondents’ evaluations of the product concepts, we figure out how much unique value (utility) each of the features added (Regress dependent variable on independent variables; betas equal part worth utilities.) Conjoint Overview Conjoint Analysis First Step: Create Attribute List Attributes assumed to be independent (Brand, Speed, Color, Price, etc.) Each attribute has varying degrees, or “levels” Brand: Coke, Pepsi, Sprite Speed: 5 pages per minute, 10 pages per minute Color: Red, Blue, Green, Black Each level is assumed to be mutually exclusive of the others (a product has one and only one level level of that attribute) Conjoint Attributes 6
  • 7. Rules for Formulating Attribute Levels Levels are assumed to be mutually exclusive Attribute: Add-on features level 1: Sunroof level 2: GPS System level 3: Video Screen If define levels in this way, you cannot determine the value of providing two or three of these features at the same time Conjoint Attributes Traditional Conjoint: Full Profile Analysis Using a 100-pt scale where 0 means definitely would NOT and 100 means definitely WOULD… How likely are you to purchase… 1997 Honda Accord Automatic transmission No antilock brakes Driver and passenger airbag Blue exterior/Black interior $18,900 Your Answer:___________ Traditional Conjoint 7
  • 8. Strengths of Traditional Conjoint • Good for both product design and pricing issues • Can be administered on paper, computer/internet • Shows products in full-profile, which many argue mimics real-world • Can be used even with small sample sizes Traditional Conjoint Credit Card Attributes Brand MasterCard, Visa, Discover Interest Rate 18%, 15%, 12% Annual Fee None, $10, $20 Credit Limit $1000, $2500, $5000 Conjoint Data 8
  • 9. How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent MasterCard 18% interest No annual fee $1000 credit limit Score= ___________ (1) Conjoint Data How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent MasterCard 12% interest $20 annual fee $5000 credit limit Score= ___________ (2) Conjoint Data 9
  • 10. How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent Visa 18% interest $10 annual fee $5000 credit limit Score= ___________ (3) Conjoint Data How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent Discover 18% interest $20 annual fee $2500 credit limit Score= ___________ (4) Conjoint Data 10
  • 11. How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent Discover 12% interest $10 annual fee $1000 credit limit Score= ___________ (5) Conjoint Data How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent Discover 15% interest No annual fee $5000 credit limit Score= ___________ (6) Conjoint Data 11
  • 12. How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent Visa 12% interest No annual fee $2500 credit limit Score= ___________ (7) Conjoint Data How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent MasterCard 15% interest $10 annual fee $2500 credit limit Score= ___________ (8) Conjoint Data 12
  • 13. How much do you like this credit card offering? 0 = Terrible, 10 = Excellent Visa 15% interest $20 annual fee $1000 credit limit Score= ___________ (9) Conjoint Data Part-Worths of Attribute-Levels Some product attributes are “defining” All credit cards have a brand name, interest rate and credit limit. Not possible to estimate importance of a defining attribute, only importance of changes in the attribute- levels (e.g., 12% vs. 15% interest rate). Other product attributes are “optional” Apartments need not have balconies, so a natural zero “0” can occur for the attribute. Implication: One level of each attribute is not estimable Conjoint Data 13
  • 14. Conjoint Data Question Rating Visa Discover 15% 12% $10 $20 $2,500 $5,000 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 8 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 9 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 Default Card: MasterCard; 18% interest; No annual fee; $1000 credit limit. All importances (part-worths) measured relative to these levels. Conjoint Data My Ratings Question Rating Visa Discover 15% 12% $10 $20 $2,500 $5,000 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 3 8 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 4 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 4 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 6 8 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 7 9 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 8 6 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 9 6 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 Default Card: MasterCard; 18% interest; No annual fee; $1000 credit limit. All importances (part-worths) measured relative to these levels. Conjoint Data 14
  • 15. Multiple Regression y = β0 + β1x1+ … + βkxk + ε βi = the expected change in the dependent variable (y) for a unit change in xi, holding fixed the other independent variables (x’s). Allows for statistical adjustments and couter- factual analysis. Provides a measure of the effect of xj relative to xk. Regression Analysis Regression Results Rating = 4.00 + 2.00 Visa + 0.00 Discover +1.00 15% + 1.00 12% - 1.00 $10 - 1.00 $20 + 2.00 $2,500 + 3.00 $5,000 Default Card: MasterCard; 18% interest; No annual fee; $1000 credit limit. All importances (part-worths) measured relative to these levels. Part-Worth Analysis 15
  • 16. Analysis of Part-Worths Brand Name: MasterCard = 0 Visa = 2 Discover = 0 Implication: MasterCard and Discover valued equally. Visa valued more. Part-Worth Analysis Analysis of Part-Worths Interest Rate: 18% = 0 15% = 1 12% = 1 Implication: Consumers are indifferent to a 15% or 12% rate, but both are preferred to an 18% rate. Part-Worth Analysis 16
  • 17. Analysis of Part-Worths Annual Fee: None = 0 $10 = -1 $20 = -1 Implication: Consumers are indifferent to a $10 or $20 annual fee, but prefer no annual fee to either amount. Part-Worth Analysis Analysis of Part-Worths Credit Limit: $1000 = 0 $2500 = 2 $5000 = 3 Implication: Consumers prefer a $5000 to either a $2500 or $1000 limited. The change from $1000 to $2500 is twice as important as the chance from $2500 to $5000. Part-Worth Analysis 17
  • 18. Analysis Across Attributes Brand Name: Interest Rate: Annual Fee: Credit Limit: MasterCard = 0 18% = 0 None = 0 $1000 = 0 Visa = 2 15% = 1 $10 = -1 $2500 = 2 Discover = 0 12% = 1 $20 = -1 $5000 = 3 Value of Visa vs. MasterCard = Value of $2500 vs. $1000 Credit Limit Value of 15% vs. 18% Interest = Value of $0 vs. $10 Annual Fee Value of $5000 vs. $2500 Credit Limit = Value of 15 vs. 18% Interest Part-Worth Analysis Attributes Play Two Roles Desired attributes are the basis of consideration set formation and preference orderings. Market Defining Attributes that form consideration sets are market defining – without them there is no hope of attracting a prospect. Brand Positioning Other attributes play a role in brand positioning – consumers are willing to tradeoff one attribute level for another. Theory 18
  • 19. Screening Rules “A Choice Model with Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and Compensatory Screening Rules” Conjunctive rule: alternative must be acceptable on all attributes. Disjunctive rule: alternative must be acceptable on a least one attribute. Compensatory rule: really good attributes can make up for really bad attributes. Challenge Paper A partial listing of offerings and features of digital cameras from Nov. 2002 Consumer Reports A selection of tested products (Within types, in performance order) Brand & model 3- TO 5-MEGAPIXEL CAMERAS Sony DSC-F707 MS 5x · · · · Canon PowerShot G2 CF 3x · · · · Olympus Camedia C-3040 Zoom SM 3x · · · Olympus Camedia D-40 Zoom SM 2.8x · · Fujifilm FinePix F601 Z SM 3x · · · Sony Cyber-shot DSC-S75 MS 3x · · · · HP PhotoSmart 812 SD 3x · Kodak EasyShare DX4900 CF 2x · Olympus Camedia E-10 CF, SM 4x · · · Canon PowerShot S40 CF 3x · · Casio QV-4000 CF 3x · · · · Kyocera Finecam S4 SD 3x · · · Panasonic Lumix DMC-LC5 SD 3x · · · · Sony Cyber-shot DSC-P71 MS 3x · · · Sony CD Mavica MVC-CD400 CD-R/RW 3x · · · Minolta Dimage S404 CF 4x · · Toshiba PDR-3310 SD 3x · · · Kyocera Finecam S3 SD 2x · · · Challenge Paper Source: http://www.consumerreports.org/main/detailv2.jsp?CONTENT%3C%3Ecnt_id=163145&FOLDER%3C%3Efolder_id=162691&bmUID=1034956296813 19
  • 20. Empirical Application Alternatives are described on 8 attributes Attribute Levels Attribute Levels Basic body style Low Zoom None and standard Medium 2x features High 4x Mid-Roll None Viewfinder Regular Change* Manual Large Automatic Camera Settings None Annotation* None Feedback LCD Pre-Set Viewfinder Customized List Both Custom List 1 Price $41 - $499 Custom List 2 Custom List 3 *Attributes unique to APS cameras at Camera Operation No the time of the study Feedback* Yes Challenge Paper Alternative Approach Traditional choice model: Pr(i) = Pr(xi’β + εi > xk’β + εk for all k) Proposed choice model: Pr(i) = Pr(xi’β + εi > xk’β + εk for all k such that I(xk,Îł) = 1) Threshold levels Challenge Paper 20
  • 21. Empirical Application – Conjunctive Model Proportion Screening on Each Attribute 45% 40% 41% 40% 35% 30% 25% 22% 19% 20% 15% 10% 8% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 0% om e* * * * * * r e s e de n1 n2 n3 n4 ck ng yl ic ng St Pr ba Zo fin tio tio tio tio tti ha Se dy ew ed ta ta ta ta C no no no no Bo Fe Vi l ol An An An An p. -R O id M *Attributes unique to APS offerings at time of study. Challenge Paper Empirical Application – Conjunctive Model Distribution of Price Threshold 70% 59% 60% 50% 41% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% <$276 <$356 <$425 <$499 >$499 • Respondents who “almost always” take their camera when attending “social gatherings away from” home have higher price thresholds. Challenge Paper 21
  • 22. Empirical Application Findings • Conjunctive model fits data best • 92% of respondents are forming consideration sets • Results show which attributes, which levels, and who is screening • Respondents tend to screen alternatives using familiar attributes • After controlling for the their effect in forming consideration sets, screening attributes are “less important” than indicated by the standard choice model Challenge Paper Market Simulations Make competitive market scenarios and predict which products respondents would choose Accumulate (aggregate) respondent predictions to make “Shares of Preference” (some refer to them as “market shares”) Market Simulators 22
  • 23. Which Color is Preferred? Consider the following utilities: Blue Red Yellow Respondent #1 50 40 10 Respondent #2 0 65 75 Respondent #3 40 30 20 ---- ---- ---- Average: 30 45 35 Red has the highest average preference But, does any one respondent prefer red? Market Simulators Which Color is Chosen? Assume each respondent “chooses” preferred color: Blue Red Yellow Choice Respondent #1 50 40 10 Blue Respondent #2 0 65 75 Yellow Respondent #3 40 30 20 Blue ---- ---- ---- Average: 30 45 35 Blue “chosen” twice, Yellow once Market Simulators 23
  • 24. Why Conduct Market Simulations? • Simulations better reflect real-world behavior – Represent idiosyncratic preferences of segments and individuals (remember, you don’t have to appeal to the “fat” part of the market to carve out a profitable business) • A “choice laboratory” for testing multitude of real- world possibilities • Results expressed in terms that make sense to management and are actionable Market Simulators 24