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f
6

(2006.TW/2006 TT)

3

6~9

H

2014~2015

NT$25.6

1
2
3

1
2 886.2.2181.8749
3 chienan.lai@kgi.com

886.2.2181.8727
marc@kgi.com

200
150
100

2013

1~3Q

50

25%

19%

2014~2015

0
(50)
4Q09

3Q10

2Q11

1Q12

4Q12

3Q13

2
10%

2

2013

4Q13

2014

H

1.1

39.3

2Q14

0.9~2.4

(QoQ+6.4%)

40

1Q14

42

2014

BOT

5.4%

2014
33

(

27.2

)

2014

(YoY+6.7%)

1.4

H

11

29

10
680

2017
7%)
2013
2013

85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
Jan-13

16
2%

8,000

(

2

158

May-13

1~2Q14

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

10.5

11
71.2%

2015

76%

81%
2012

5
NT$500-600

2013

1~3Q
25%

19%

9~10%

3Q13
5%

2

1.5

http://research.kgi.com

1.2

2015

7/1

2013

12

03

1
f

14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
4Q11

2014

1.1

(2002 TT, NT$25.45,

)

1.3~1.9
2014
1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

~2015

3Q13

2014
5.4%
33

2013
3Q13

79.1

10.3%

EPS 0.51

23.6

5.09

80%
2012

(

4Q13
4Q13
5.2

88.9

EPS 0.52

2013

2012A
2013F
2014F
2015F
(

2013
3Q13

4Q13F

( )
(%)
(%)
(%)

YoY (%)

(10.5)
(9.2)
(10.5)
0.8
0.8
0.1 ppts
(0.0)ppts
0.7 ppts

(14.4)
2.1
10.9
80.9
80.9
1.7 ppts
1.3 ppts
3.4 ppts

QoQ (%)
8,896
925
525
520
0.52
10.4
5.9
5.8

(

)

1.2

)

YoY (%)

12.4
13.2
15.3
2.2
2.2
0.1 ppts
0.1 ppts
(0.6)ppts

(5.5)
(5.7)
(5.7)
26.2
26.2
(0.0)ppts
(0.0)ppts
1.5 ppts

(

) (
)
3,950
2,275
3,549
2,027
3,821
2,288
4,261
2,692
EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
(x)
(x)
16.6
9.7
17.6
10.3
15.2
9.2
12.7
8.1

(

)

(%)
(percentile, %)
-12/13 (%)
-12/13 (NT$)
-12/13 (x)
-12/13 (%)

33.0
28.9
91
5.5
22.7
1.1
43.6

2014

EBITDA
)
3,900
3,471
3,805
4,228

(

(x)
14.5
12.4

52
12
/

QoQ (%)

)
39,683
34,653
37,870
41,278
EV/sales
(x)
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8

2012A
2013F
2014F
2015F
12 31

2013

7,915
817
456
509
0.51
10.3
5.8
6.4

27.2

12 31

5

10.4%

1.4

(

(

11.5
10.1
( / ):
/
(

)
1,748
2,045
2,212
2,511
EV/Inv. C
(x)
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
):
):
(

(
3

):
):

(
% (3,6,12
% (3,6,12

):
)
)

( )
1.76
2.06
2.23
2.53
(%)
7.8
8.9
9.3
10.2
23 - 30.5
25.6/863
998
998
121
3.0
4.7; -9.7; -12.9
0.9; -12; -22.1

(%)
9,888
935
485
421
0.42
9.5
4.9
4.3

(10.0)
(1.1)
8.2
23.5
23.5
0.9 ppts
1.0 ppts
1.6 ppts

2013
EPS

2.06

EPS

2014
2.23

2013

2014
2013F

EBIT

( )
(%)
(%)
(%)

37,076
1,805
268
1,796
1.81
9.5
4.9
4.8

34,653
2,027
313
2,045
2.06
10.2
5.8
5.9

http://research.kgi.com

2014F
(%)
(6.5)
12.3
16.9
13.9
13.9
0.7 ppts
0.9 ppts
1.1 ppts

37,870
2,288
298
2,212
2.23
10.1
6.0
5.8

(%)
9.3
12.9
(4.9)
8.1
8.1
(0.1)ppts
0.2 ppts
(0.1)ppts

2013

12

03

2
f
(
2006 TT
2002 TT
2015 TT
X US
NUE US
MT NA
600019 CH
002075 CH
347 HK
5401 JP
005490 KS

)
978
14,331
1,019
3,784
16,105
21,400
11,598
988
4,212
19,622
27,699

EPS
2013F
2014F
2.06
2.23
1.14
1.48
2.59
2.76
(1.35)
1.03
1.42
3.09
(0.41)
0.84
0.41
0.46
0.02
0.05
0.13
0.16
(16.42)
24.94
20930.30
29410.61

(x)
2013F
12.4
22.2
20.6
N.A.
35.6
N.A.
10.6
159.2
36.6
N.A.
16.1

2014F
11.5
17.1
19.3
25.4
16.4
20.8
9.4
74.9
29.5
13.3
11.5

2013F
1.1
1.3
2.0
2.0
2.1
0.6
0.6
2.6
0.7
1.4
0.7

(x)
2014F
1.1
1.3
1.9
1.9
2.0
0.6
0.6
2.5
0.7
1.2
0.7

ROE (%)
2013F
2014F
8.9
9.3
5.6
6.9
9.5
10.1
(5.8)
8.5
6.0
12.7
(1.8)
2.8
5.5
6.4
1.6
3.3
1.9
2.4
(4.6)
9.0
4.4
5.9

Bloomberg

1Q13A

2Q13A

3Q13A

4Q13F

1Q14F

2Q14F

3Q14F

4Q14F

2013F

2014F

9,002
8,095
907
369
537
330
18
885
5
28
69
102
39
39
600
91
509
3
512
0.60
0.52

8,840
7,940
900
391
509
330
15
854
4
(5)
127
126
35
35
600
103
497
8
505
0.61
0.51

7,915
7,098
817
362
456
293
14
763
5
24
101
130
33
33
552
48
504
5
509
0.56
0.51

8,896
7,971
925
400
525
420
23
968
23
44
61
128
68
68
585
71
514
5
520
0.59
0.52

9,357
8,421
936
375
561
347
17
925
14
17
52
83
42
42
601
72
529
6
535
0.61
0.54

9,701
8,682
1,019
400
619
362
18
998
15
18
52
85
41
41
662
80
582
6
588
0.67
0.59

9,649
8,781
868
347
521
369
18
908
15
17
52
84
43
43
562
69
493
6
499
0.57
0.50

9,163
8,164
999
411
588
369
18
974
15
18
87
120
46
46
662
77
585
6
591
0.67
0.60

34,653
31,104
3,549
1,522
2,027
1,374
70
3,471
37
91
358
486
176
176
2,338
313
2,024
21
2,045
2.36
2.06

37,870
34,048
3,821
1,533
2,288
1,446
70
3,805
59
69
243
371
172
172
2,487
298
2,189
23
2,212
2.51
2.23

10.1
6.0
9.8
6.7
5.7

10.2
5.8
9.7
6.8
5.7

10.3
5.8
9.6
7.0
6.4

10.4
5.9
10.9
6.6
5.8

10.0
6.0
9.9
6.4
5.7

10.5
6.4
10.3
6.8
6.1

9.0
5.4
9.4
5.8
5.2

10.9
6.4
10.6
7.2
6.4

10.2
5.8
10.0
6.7
5.9

10.1
6.0
10.0
6.6
5.8

(4.4)
(7.6)
(3.5)
(8.0)
21.9
24.4

(1.8)
(0.7)
(5.3)
(3.5)
0.0
(1.5)

(10.5)
(9.2)
(10.5)
(10.7)
(7.9)
0.8

12.4
13.2
15.3
26.9
6.0
2.2

5.2
1.1
6.8
(4.5)
2.7
2.9

3.7
8.9
10.3
7.9
10.1
9.9

(0.5)
(14.7)
(15.7)
(9.0)
(15.0)
(15.1)

(5.0)
15.0
12.7
7.3
17.7
18.3

(10.9)
(10.0)
(15.4)
(14.2)
2.0
5.4

(NT$

(19.0)
(22.5)
(24.3)
(20.4)
(6.6)
(11.3)

(14.4)
2.1
10.9
(8.3)
71.6
80.9

(5.5)
(5.7)
(5.7)
0.6
19.0
26.2

3.9
3.2
4.3
4.5
0.2
4.4

9.7
13.2
21.5
16.8
10.3
16.4

21.9
6.3
14.5
19.0
1.8
(1.9)

3.0
8.0
11.9
0.7
13.1
13.7

(12.7)
(10.2)
(10.9)
(11.0)
14.3
17.0

9.3
7.7
12.9
9.6
6.4
8.2

)

EBITDA

(

)

EPS
EPS
(%)

EBITDA Margin

(%)

EBITDA

(%)

EBITDA

http://research.kgi.com

2013

12

03

3
f
2013~2014

1962

EPS

99.2

0.52

230

0.51

0.51

0.52

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13F

0.60

0.59

0.54

1Q13

H

1Q14F

0.50

2010

2Q14F

3Q14F

4Q14F

30

(4)

28

16.7

0

29

[1.0]

(8)

27

(12)

26

13.9

(16)

25
24
68.5

2014

(20)

23

(24)

22
Dec-12

378

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

(28)
Nov-13

Sep-13

9.0%
21.0x

12

45

10

40

8

35

6

30

4

25

11.0x

2

20

9.0x

19.0x
17.0x
15.0x
13.0x

15

0
1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13F

2014

10.1

10.2

1Q14F

2Q14F

3Q14F

2Q13

2010

2011

2012

2013

10%

10.3

10.4

10.0

10.9

10.5
9.0

1Q13

2009

4Q14F

3Q13

4Q13F

http://research.kgi.com

1Q14F

2Q14F

3Q14F

4Q14F

35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15

1.5x
1.4x
1.3x
1.2x
1.1x
1.0x
0.9x

2009

2013

2010

12

03

2011

2012

2013

4
f
12

12

(

2015F
42,936
21,229
4,415
12,587
3,845
383
21,707
4,588
15,857
1,262
17,820
11,016
1,695
7,017
2,304
6,804
6,114
690
25,115
9,918
6,449
8,748
0

2012A

2013F

2014F

(12.7)
(10.9)
(11.0)
17.0
17.0

9.3
12.9
9.6
8.2
8.2

9.0
17.6
11.1
13.5
13.5

10.0
5.7
9.8
4.4
4.2
7.8

10.2
5.8
10.0
5.9
5.0
8.9

10.1
6.0
10.0
5.8
5.4
9.3

59.9
54.4
12.0
0.3
13.4
0.3
1.6
0.5
12,902

55.7
43.6
14.3
0.4
28.5
0.7
1.6
0.6
11,296

53.9
38.9
15.4
0.4
15.4
0.4
1.8
0.7
9,843

52.3
34.7
17.8
0.4
17.0
0.4
1.9
0.8
9,085

1.76
3.40
22.60
40.01
2.29
1.30

2.06
3.52
22.70
34.94
2.04
1.40

2.23
3.76
23.60
38.18
2.31
1.70

2.53
4.08
25.32
41.62
2.71
1.80

1.1
32.9
99.2
22.0
110.1

1.0
34.0
111.8
15.1
130.7

0.9
34.0
111.4
15.0
130.4

0.9
34.0
111.6
15.0
130.6

1.0
34.0
111.3
15.0
130.3

2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
2015F

2013F
34,653
31,104
3,549
1,522
2,027
(138)
37
176
91
358
21
2,338
313
2,045
3,471
2.06

2014F
37,870
34,048
3,821
1,533
2,288
(113)
59
172
69
243
23
2,487
298
2,212
3,805
2.23

2015F
41,278
37,017
4,261
1,569
2,692
(99)
73
173
75
240
(19)
2,908
378
2,511
4,228
2.53

)

2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
2015F

2012A
39,683
35,733
3,950
1,675
2,275
(163)
23
187
36
(104)
34
2,044
331
1,748
3,900
1.76

2011A
2,107
2,679
1,538
(1,981)
(129)
(1,685)
(1,332)
91
(445)
422
(960)
(1,108)

2012A
2,503
1,748
1,625
(837)
(33)
(357)
(815)
567
(109)
2,146
(2,226)
(1,209)

2013F
4,997
2,045
1,444
1,596
(88)
(1,584)
(1,514)
(0)
(70)
3,413
(1,810)
(1,289)

2014F
2,647
2,212
1,516
(1,016)
(66)
(477)
(407)
(0)
(70)
2,169
(1,372)
(1,388)

2015F
2,942
2,511
1,536
(1,032)
(72)
(520)
(450)
0
(70)
2,422
(1,652)
(1,686)

(1,169)
153
(80)

(520)
0
1,604

16
0
797

34
0
770

10.3
6.5
10.2
6.1
5.9
10.2

66.6
60.6
17.1
0.3
11.2
0.2
1.3
0.4
12,997

2011A
44,124
39,413
4,711
1,776
2,936
(168)
20
188
140
116
15
3,024
361
2,679
4,474
2.76

2015F

(10.1)
(22.5)
(12.8)
(34.8)
(36.2)

)

361
(213)
(538)

2014F
41,751
19,100
3,645
11,577
3,527
351
22,651
4,516
16,873
1,262
17,461
10,672
1,559
6,999
2,114
6,788
6,099
690
24,291
9,918
6,449
7,924
0

2011A

)

2013F
40,597
16,973
2,848
10,576
3,227
321
23,624
4,450
17,912
1,262
17,130
10,349
1,424
6,990
1,934
6,781
6,091
690
23,467
9,918
6,449
7,100
0

2.76
4.35
22.85
45.47
3.03
1.60

31

)

2012A
40,854
17,458
1,244
12,150
3,696
368
23,396
4,362
17,772
1,262
18,143
11,120
1,636
7,269
2,215
7,023
6,333
690
22,711
9,918
6,449
6,344
0

10.7
6.7
10.1
6.1
6.4
12.5

(

2011A
42,549
17,918
1,324
11,995
3,973
626
24,631
4,896
18,482
1,252
20,376
14,101
2,661
9,033
2,407
6,275
5,738
537
22,172
9,809
6,195
6,168
0

27.4
108.9
76.7
103.5
101.1

31

12

31

(

(

)

31

(

EBITDA

12

(% )

EBITDA

Free Cash Flow

(%)

EBITDA

/
(%)
(%)
(X)
(X)
Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X)
Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X)
(X)
(X)
(NT$

)
(NT$

EBITDA/shr

)

ROIC
12 31

(Return on Invested Capital)
1-

2011A
2012A
2013F
2014F
2015F
12 31

+

85.8%
86.0%
85.6%
85.9%
86.0%
1/

+

0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4

http://research.kgi.com

2013

6.7%
5.7%
5.8%
6.0%
6.5%

12

03

=

4.0%
4.2%
4.4%
4.0%
3.8%
+

0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4

1.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3

6.7%
5.7%
5.8%
6.0%
6.5%
=

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
x 1-

x

12 31
(X)

+

3.5%
4.1%
4.2%
4.0%
3.7%

1.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3
=

88.1%
83.8%
85.0%
84.0%
87.0%

ROIC

7.9%
5.8%
5.4%
6.0%
7.3%

5
f
歷

45
40
35
30
25
20
Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

歷
(

)

2-Dec-13

25.60

27.2

33.0

30-May-13

28.25

27.6

27.2

18-Apr-12

28.35

36.5

27.6

31-Oct-11

27.10

40.5

36.5

23-Aug-11

30.50

42.0

40.5

12-Aug-11

30.50

42.0

42.0

3-Jun-11

32.55

41.5

42.0

9-Feb-11

34.70

38.5

41.5

21-Dec-09

33.35

38.5

38.5

14-Sep-09
24-Aug-09
23-Jun-09
7-May-09
13-Mar-09

34.20
34.20
30.20
29.55
23.55

35.4
36.5
35.0
27.2
28.5

38.5
35.4
36.5
35.0
27.2

http://research.kgi.com

2013

12

03

6
500

A

2703B-2704

104

201103

700
886.2.2181.8888
886.2.8501.1691

2014

A

24D1

518008

852.2878.6888

8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building

852.2878.6800

173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand
66.2658.8888
66.2658.8014

(OP)

(Excessive Return)
(

)

40%

(N)

(
(

40%

)
)

40%

(U)
40%
(NR)
(R )

/
*

http://research.kgi.com

=(

/

2013

12

)–1

03

7

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