An analysis of the GroupM forecast of online and traditional advertising spent in 2009. Countries included are Russia, Romania, Czech, Poland and Hungary.

1. EFFECT OF RECESSION
ON MEDIA SPENT IN
CEE, 2009.
Wim Vermeulen, Director Digital Innovation, Ogilvy Group CEE

2. Media spend per medium
CEE OVERALL RESULTS Evolution media spend
2009 (% of total spend) 2008-2009 (%) (*3)
(*2)
GroupM released its forecast for the media spending in 2009. The countries
discussed here are Russia, Romania, Hungary, Poland and Czech.
8%
All numbers are Mio USD.
12%
(*1) (*4) Overall, GroupM expects the total spend of the 5 countries to decrease 16
with 5%. The biggest decline is in Russia (-11%), the biggest increase in
51%
15%
Romania (+30%). Russia stays by far the biggest spender, followed by Poland 2
-4
and Czech.
7% -11 -11 -13
7%
(*2)Looking at the split in spend per medium, TV takes 51% of the money in
CEE. Magazines take 15%, Outdoor 12%. Online follows with 8%. In 2008, the TV RADIO NEWSPAPER
share for online was 6,7%. TV RADIO MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE
NEWSPAPER MAGAZINE
OUTDOOR ONLINE
(*3)In a market going down with 5%, Outdoor and Print are hurt the most
(-11/13%). TV drops 4%. The big winner is online, taking 16% more budget than
last year.
Total media spend per country Evolution media spending per country, 2009 (*4)
2008-2009, mio USD (*1)
-5%
17.000
Index
2008 2009
1.184 1.234 104
Czech
13.600
969 959 99
Hungary
3.269 3.346 102
Poland
-11%
10.200
797 1.038 130
Romania
10.526 9.346 89
Russia
6.800
95
TOTAL 16.745 15.922
+2%
3.400
+4% -1% +30%
0
Czech Hungary Poland Romania Russia Total
2008 2009

3. CEE OVERALL RESULTS
In general, our region follows the same trends as the rest of Europe. Growth in
measurable media (online) and decline in traditional media. The decline is not
so much in TV as it is in Print.
TV still dominates the ad market. Print (newspapers and magazines) is well
positioned too, but in structural decline. Online is showing structural growth,
entering the TOP 3 in Czech and Poland. In Czech, Online is even the second
biggest medium.
Top 3 in media spend per country
2008-2009
1 2 3
TV MAGAZINES
ONLINE
Czech
TV MAGAZINES NEWSPAPERS
Hungary
TV MAGAZINES ONLINE
Poland
TV RADIO NEWSPAPERS
Romania
TV MAGAZINES OUTDOOR
Russia
TV MAGAZINES OUTDOOR
CEE

4. CZECH REPUBLIC (+4%) Share of media , 2009 (*2)
The media spend will grow 4% in 2009. Thanks to a 4% increase in TV and 24%
in online. Print (newspapers and mags) is loosing out 3% each (*1).
17%
(*2)TV dominates in 2009 with 45% of all media spend. Online has grown to the
5%
2nd position, taking a 17% share. That puts Czech in the top position for digital
45%
spend in CEE next year.
14%
(*3) When we look at the historical data (2006-2009), we see that TV remains a
stable market leader, Radio and Outdoor is decreasing a little (-2%), Print is
12% 7%
going down with 4% and Online doubles.
That puts Czech in the forefront for Online. And not only in CEE.17% Market
share for online puts it close to the 20% in the UK and beats the numbers for
France and Germany. TV RADIO
NEWSPAPER MAGAZINE
OUTDOOR ONLINE
Evolution share of media, 2006-2009 (*3)
Total media spend
2008-2009, mio USD (*1)
50,0
2008 2009 Index
534 553 104
TV
37,5
80 80 100
RADIO
156 151 97
NEWSPAPER
177 171 97
MAGAZINE 25,0
66 67 101
OUTDOOR
171 211 124
ONLINE
12,5
Total 1.184 1.234 104
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER
MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE

5. Share of media , 2009 (*2)
HUNGARY (-1%)
Hungary is loosing 1% media spend compared to 2008.
7%
When we look at the market share of all media, traditional media are in decline.
11%
Except TV that is going up 4%. The biggest increase however goes to Online that
takes 24% more budget than last year (*1).
41%
Online stays however small compared to all other media. It only beats radio for 19%
the time being. Again, TV leads with 41% SOM. Magazines and newspapers are
number 2 and 3 (*2).
6%
17%
The historical data are showing the reassuring position of TV, a decrease for all
other media, except Online (*3).
TV RADIO
NEWSPAPER MAGAZINE
OUTDOOR ONLINE
Total media spend Evolution share of media, 2006-2009 (*3)
2008-2009, mio USD (*1)
50,0
2008 2009 Index
HUNGARY
TV 376 391 104
RADIO 58 56 96 37,5
NEWSPAPER 179 162 90
MAGAZINE 198 183 92
25,0
OUTDOOR 107 103 96
ONLINE 51 65 127
12,5
Total 969 959 99
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER
MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE

6. Share of media , 2009 (*2)
POLAND (+2%)
The media spend in Poland increases with 2%.
10%
TV remains stable (-1% vs 2008), Online is the biggest winner (+28%).
Newspaper loose 3%. All the other media remain stable or win a little. The
9%
GroupM numbers also show cinema (only for Poland), going up with 9%. (*1)
2%
As in the other countries, TV leads the pack with 49% SOM. Magazines follow
49%
with 12%, Online is 3rd having 10%. (*2). 12%
Looking at the historical data, it is again TV dominating and Magazines/
10%
Newspapers having the biggest drop. Since 2006, Online jumped from the 6st
to the 3rd position. (*3) 8%
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER
MAGAZINE CINEMA OUTDOOR
ONLINE
Total media spend Evolution share of media, 2006-2009 (*3)
2008-2009, mio USD (*1)
60
2008 2009 Index
POLAND
TV 1.668 1.652 99
45
RADIO 252 259 103
NEWSPAPER 340 329 97
MAGAZINE 409 418 102
30
CINEMA 48 52 109
OUTDOOR 301 313 104
ONLINE 251 322 128
15
Total 3.269 3.346 102
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER MAGAZINE
CINEMA OUTDOOR ONLINE

7. ROMANIA (+30%) Share of media , 2009 (*2)
Romania is the big exception for next year. GroupM forecasts the adspend to
3%
increase 30%. 4%
8%
(*1) The biggest winner is Online (+67%). Next is Radio (+50%), followed by TV
(+30).
8%
(*2) TV is absolutely dominating the Romanian ad space with 63%. Next are
Radio (14%) and Print (8%).
14% 63%
Again, looking at the historical data, TV is remaining stable, Radio is growing,
so is Online, Print is dropping. (*3)
Online is the smallest medium in advertising spend.
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE
Evolution share of media, 2006-2009 (*3)
Total media spend
2008-2009, mio USD (*1) 70,0
2008 2009 Index
ROMANIA
TV 502 653 130 52,5
RADIO 97 145 150
NEWSPAPER 80 86 107
MAGAZINE 64 79 125 35,0
OUTDOOR 34 40 120
ONLINE 20 34 167
Total 797 1.038 130 17,5
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER
MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE

8. RUSSIA (-11%) Share of media , 2009 (*2)
While Romania is the biggest winner, Russia has the biggest decrease compared
to the other countries (-11%).
7%
14%
TV looses 9%, Newspapers 21%, Magazines 16% and Outdoor 18%. The online
media that is growing is Online: +6%. (*1)
Comparing the share of media for 2009, TV is clearly leading (52%), followed by 52%
16%
Magazines (16%) and Outdoor (14%). Online is 4th with 7%. (*2)
Historically, two media are gaining market share, TV and online. All the others
5%
are in decline. (*3) 6%
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER
MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE
Evolution share of media, 2006-2009 (*3)
Total media spend
60
2008-2009, mio USD (*1)
2008 2009 Index
RUSSIA
TV 5.362 4.860 91 45
RADIO 609 578 95
NEWSPAPER 553 439 79
MAGAZINE 1.754 1.471 84 30
OUTDOOR 1.621 1.332 82
ONLINE 627 666 106
15
Total 10.526 9.346 89
0
2006 2007 2008 2009
TV RADIO NEWSPAPER MAGAZINE OUTDOOR ONLINE

9. wim.vermeulen@ogilvy.com
skype: wim_vermeulen