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Internet Trends for Marketers


      WILL CRITCHLOW
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  Let’s look
                                  backwards
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                    Last year may have been the year of the dot
                    coms, but 2000 is set to be the year of the
                    mobile.


                                              TheLawyer.com, 2000
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                                          2003
                                                          10 years ago
                                  Check out this 2002 piece by Tim O’Reilly predicting the decade we just had:
                                         http://www.oreillynet.com/network/2002/04/09/future.html
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We did email on our phones
2003: the iconic blackberry was released
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We didn’t Instagram our Angry Birds’ breakfast




                                                 Thanks @philnottingham
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We had “broadband”




                                  Source: Ofcom and thinkbroadband.com
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



The first version of Skype was released
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



but YouTube was still two years away
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                    2023
                                  10 years from now
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We are still doing email on our phone
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We still use keyboards
                                  The DYAC of the future is “damn you Siri”




                                                               Source: DYAC
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We still read text
Easier to scan, more socially acceptable at work, doesn’t require quiet / headphones




                                         Still looks less like
                                                 work
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



(We are bad enough at reading & walking)




                                           Source: gifsoup
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


We pay for more things
Often voluntarily (see: Louis CK, NYT’s porous paywall)
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


The dumb pipes continue acting dumb
Meet Cesar Alierta, CEO Telefonica



                                     Google should pay us for using our
                                                 network


                                                erm
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


The last mile is no longer the issue
The “middle mile” is – getting fibre to the exchange




                                                       Source:TechCrunch
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


No-one watches scheduled TV
Apart from news, sports, and actual live events
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Mobile is a big deal but not for the reason you think




                                                        Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



The iPod revolutionised an industry




                                      Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



The iPhone makes it look slow




                                  Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Then came the iPad




                                  Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Holy **** Android




                                  Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



…and it keeps going




                                  Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                             We need to look at
                             the PC market to
                             understand what’s
                              really happening
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Before I was born, systems I’ve never used
ruled the earth




                                       Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


When I was young, we saw the rise and fall of
Amiga, Atari, Commodore




                                       Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Through school, university and early work, it
was a two-horse race (being kind to Apple)




                                        Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Now: Same old, same old




                                  Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Unless you add in iPad and Android




                                     Source: Business Insider
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


If you care about the details check out this
chart and this animation          (note the log scale)
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile”




                                                  Source: cnet
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



    Mobile devices get            PCs get more like
     more like PCs                 mobile devices
                   Faster               Touch

        Better at browsing            App stores

     Easier to purchase on            Instant on
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  The future is
                                    here…
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



It’s just not evenly distributed                       [hat-tip William Gibson]

Yes, I think I might be advocating studying hipsters




                                                                             Source: Paste Magazine
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We use devices interchangeably
29% of US adults own a tablet or ereader up from 2% in 2009




                                                              Source: Business Insider, image from thed34n
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


We have seamless, sync’ed access everywhere
Already: Dropbox, Evernote, Google Apps / Android, iCloud, Instapaper, Kindle whispersync
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



We buy everywhere




                                  Source: IBM
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


We broadcast stuff about ourselves
But in a more useful way (maybe)
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


We subscribe and follow
(Often people, not brands – even when curated by a brand)
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


We need more computer curation
To make sense of the streams (See: priority inbox, FB edgerank)


                Not everything gets here…


                                  …or here



                 Even when we’ve asked for
                            it
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  Show me the
                                    strategy
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  Google
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Read @bfeld on Google’s long game
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



“Connected and fast”




                                  Source: chromium.org and theverge
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  Amazon
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                    Your margin is my opportunity



                                                    Jeff Bezos
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                    …periodically Amazon wants to "check in"
                    with its ability to make money. Thus, in 2007,
                    Amazon more than doubled its profit, to
                    $476 million, on a 38% increase in sales to
                    almost $15 billion.
                                                            Fortune
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  Facebook
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



DAU/MAU > 50% - stickiness




                                  See: quora, quora and andrewchen
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                              Some strategies I
                               predict will do
                               well in search
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Earn (and keep) attention not just shares




                                        Photo by: latzko
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



(Admit it, who shares stuff before reading it?)




                                              Check out: buffer
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



The “LinkedIn” (see also Forbes)                                                  “Borrowing”
personal authority – these implementations are broken for different reasons atm




                                                                                       See: LinkedIn and Forbes
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Brands as “real” publishers
(See: Red Bull)




                                  Read: Mashable
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Real world APIs
(banks, I’m looking at you)




                                  See: Mashable
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Bricks and mortar aggressively acquiring startups
There is real innovation in fashion and e-comm for example (see: brandid)
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



Putting unexpected people in charge
You should read all these articles about Harper Reed, CTO of Obama for America: The Atlantic, BusinessWeek, Mother Jones, gigaom, Time




                                                                                                                                         Photo: juggernautco
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Obsessively implementing new stuff first
There are first-mover advantages to technology shifts such as rel=author




                                                        Illustration by: marketingfacts, from crossing the chasm
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Cross-functional teams outside normal hierarchy
Read about the NYT interactive team




                                          Read: The Avalanche at Tunnel Creek
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow


Beware! You might be competing with loss-making teams
The NYT modelled an avalanche!




                                                    Read: Modeling an avalanche
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                  Summary
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile”




                                                  Source: cnet
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow



    Mobile devices get            PCs get more like
     more like PCs                 mobile devices
                   Faster               Touch

        Better at browsing            App stores

     Easier to purchase on            Instant on
WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow




                                    http://www.distilled.net/events/linklove-london/

                                                    …and Searchlove Boston in May:
                                  http://www.distilled.net/events/searchlove-boston/

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Internet trends for marketers

  • 1. Internet Trends for Marketers WILL CRITCHLOW
  • 2. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Let’s look backwards
  • 3. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Last year may have been the year of the dot coms, but 2000 is set to be the year of the mobile. TheLawyer.com, 2000
  • 4. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow 2003 10 years ago Check out this 2002 piece by Tim O’Reilly predicting the decade we just had: http://www.oreillynet.com/network/2002/04/09/future.html
  • 5. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We did email on our phones 2003: the iconic blackberry was released
  • 6. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We didn’t Instagram our Angry Birds’ breakfast Thanks @philnottingham
  • 7. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We had “broadband” Source: Ofcom and thinkbroadband.com
  • 8. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The first version of Skype was released
  • 9. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow but YouTube was still two years away
  • 10. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow 2023 10 years from now
  • 11. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We are still doing email on our phone
  • 12. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We still use keyboards The DYAC of the future is “damn you Siri” Source: DYAC
  • 13. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We still read text Easier to scan, more socially acceptable at work, doesn’t require quiet / headphones Still looks less like work
  • 14. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow (We are bad enough at reading & walking) Source: gifsoup
  • 15. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We pay for more things Often voluntarily (see: Louis CK, NYT’s porous paywall)
  • 16. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The dumb pipes continue acting dumb Meet Cesar Alierta, CEO Telefonica Google should pay us for using our network erm
  • 17. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The last mile is no longer the issue The “middle mile” is – getting fibre to the exchange Source:TechCrunch
  • 18. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow No-one watches scheduled TV Apart from news, sports, and actual live events
  • 19. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Mobile is a big deal but not for the reason you think Source: Business Insider
  • 20. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The iPod revolutionised an industry Source: Business Insider
  • 21. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The iPhone makes it look slow Source: Business Insider
  • 22. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Then came the iPad Source: Business Insider
  • 23. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Holy **** Android Source: Business Insider
  • 24. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow …and it keeps going Source: Business Insider
  • 25. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We need to look at the PC market to understand what’s really happening
  • 26. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Before I was born, systems I’ve never used ruled the earth Source: Business Insider
  • 27. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow When I was young, we saw the rise and fall of Amiga, Atari, Commodore Source: Business Insider
  • 28. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Through school, university and early work, it was a two-horse race (being kind to Apple) Source: Business Insider
  • 29. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Now: Same old, same old Source: Business Insider
  • 30. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Unless you add in iPad and Android Source: Business Insider
  • 31. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow If you care about the details check out this chart and this animation (note the log scale)
  • 32. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile” Source: cnet
  • 33. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Mobile devices get PCs get more like more like PCs mobile devices Faster Touch Better at browsing App stores Easier to purchase on Instant on
  • 34. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The future is here…
  • 35. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow It’s just not evenly distributed [hat-tip William Gibson] Yes, I think I might be advocating studying hipsters Source: Paste Magazine
  • 36. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We use devices interchangeably 29% of US adults own a tablet or ereader up from 2% in 2009 Source: Business Insider, image from thed34n
  • 37. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We have seamless, sync’ed access everywhere Already: Dropbox, Evernote, Google Apps / Android, iCloud, Instapaper, Kindle whispersync
  • 38. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We buy everywhere Source: IBM
  • 39. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We broadcast stuff about ourselves But in a more useful way (maybe)
  • 40. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We subscribe and follow (Often people, not brands – even when curated by a brand)
  • 41. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow We need more computer curation To make sense of the streams (See: priority inbox, FB edgerank) Not everything gets here… …or here Even when we’ve asked for it
  • 42. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Show me the strategy
  • 43. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Google
  • 44. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Read @bfeld on Google’s long game
  • 45. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow “Connected and fast” Source: chromium.org and theverge
  • 46. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Amazon
  • 47. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Your margin is my opportunity Jeff Bezos
  • 48. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow …periodically Amazon wants to "check in" with its ability to make money. Thus, in 2007, Amazon more than doubled its profit, to $476 million, on a 38% increase in sales to almost $15 billion. Fortune
  • 49. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Facebook
  • 50. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow DAU/MAU > 50% - stickiness See: quora, quora and andrewchen
  • 51. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Some strategies I predict will do well in search
  • 52. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Earn (and keep) attention not just shares Photo by: latzko
  • 53. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow (Admit it, who shares stuff before reading it?) Check out: buffer
  • 54. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow The “LinkedIn” (see also Forbes) “Borrowing” personal authority – these implementations are broken for different reasons atm See: LinkedIn and Forbes
  • 55. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Brands as “real” publishers (See: Red Bull) Read: Mashable
  • 56. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Real world APIs (banks, I’m looking at you) See: Mashable
  • 57. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Bricks and mortar aggressively acquiring startups There is real innovation in fashion and e-comm for example (see: brandid)
  • 58. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Putting unexpected people in charge You should read all these articles about Harper Reed, CTO of Obama for America: The Atlantic, BusinessWeek, Mother Jones, gigaom, Time Photo: juggernautco
  • 59. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Obsessively implementing new stuff first There are first-mover advantages to technology shifts such as rel=author Illustration by: marketingfacts, from crossing the chasm
  • 60. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Cross-functional teams outside normal hierarchy Read about the NYT interactive team Read: The Avalanche at Tunnel Creek
  • 61. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Beware! You might be competing with loss-making teams The NYT modelled an avalanche! Read: Modeling an avalanche
  • 62. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Summary
  • 63. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile” Source: cnet
  • 64. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow Mobile devices get PCs get more like more like PCs mobile devices Faster Touch Better at browsing App stores Easier to purchase on Instant on
  • 65. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow http://www.distilled.net/events/linklove-london/ …and Searchlove Boston in May: http://www.distilled.net/events/searchlove-boston/