3. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Last year may have been the year of the dot
coms, but 2000 is set to be the year of the
mobile.
TheLawyer.com, 2000
4. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
2003
10 years ago
Check out this 2002 piece by Tim O’Reilly predicting the decade we just had:
http://www.oreillynet.com/network/2002/04/09/future.html
5. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We did email on our phones
2003: the iconic blackberry was released
6. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We didn’t Instagram our Angry Birds’ breakfast
Thanks @philnottingham
7. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We had “broadband”
Source: Ofcom and thinkbroadband.com
8. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
The first version of Skype was released
9. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
but YouTube was still two years away
11. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We are still doing email on our phone
12. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We still use keyboards
The DYAC of the future is “damn you Siri”
Source: DYAC
13. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We still read text
Easier to scan, more socially acceptable at work, doesn’t require quiet / headphones
Still looks less like
work
14. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
(We are bad enough at reading & walking)
Source: gifsoup
15. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We pay for more things
Often voluntarily (see: Louis CK, NYT’s porous paywall)
16. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
The dumb pipes continue acting dumb
Meet Cesar Alierta, CEO Telefonica
Google should pay us for using our
network
erm
17. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
The last mile is no longer the issue
The “middle mile” is – getting fibre to the exchange
Source:TechCrunch
18. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
No-one watches scheduled TV
Apart from news, sports, and actual live events
19. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Mobile is a big deal but not for the reason you think
Source: Business Insider
20. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
The iPod revolutionised an industry
Source: Business Insider
21. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
The iPhone makes it look slow
Source: Business Insider
22. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Then came the iPad
Source: Business Insider
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Holy **** Android
Source: Business Insider
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…and it keeps going
Source: Business Insider
25. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We need to look at
the PC market to
understand what’s
really happening
26. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Before I was born, systems I’ve never used
ruled the earth
Source: Business Insider
27. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
When I was young, we saw the rise and fall of
Amiga, Atari, Commodore
Source: Business Insider
28. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Through school, university and early work, it
was a two-horse race (being kind to Apple)
Source: Business Insider
29. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Now: Same old, same old
Source: Business Insider
30. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Unless you add in iPad and Android
Source: Business Insider
31. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
If you care about the details check out this
chart and this animation (note the log scale)
32. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile”
Source: cnet
33. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Mobile devices get PCs get more like
more like PCs mobile devices
Faster Touch
Better at browsing App stores
Easier to purchase on Instant on
35. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
It’s just not evenly distributed [hat-tip William Gibson]
Yes, I think I might be advocating studying hipsters
Source: Paste Magazine
36. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We use devices interchangeably
29% of US adults own a tablet or ereader up from 2% in 2009
Source: Business Insider, image from thed34n
37. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We have seamless, sync’ed access everywhere
Already: Dropbox, Evernote, Google Apps / Android, iCloud, Instapaper, Kindle whispersync
39. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We broadcast stuff about ourselves
But in a more useful way (maybe)
40. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We subscribe and follow
(Often people, not brands – even when curated by a brand)
41. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
We need more computer curation
To make sense of the streams (See: priority inbox, FB edgerank)
Not everything gets here…
…or here
Even when we’ve asked for
it
47. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Your margin is my opportunity
Jeff Bezos
48. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
…periodically Amazon wants to "check in"
with its ability to make money. Thus, in 2007,
Amazon more than doubled its profit, to
$476 million, on a 38% increase in sales to
almost $15 billion.
Fortune
50. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
DAU/MAU > 50% - stickiness
See: quora, quora and andrewchen
51. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Some strategies I
predict will do
well in search
52. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Earn (and keep) attention not just shares
Photo by: latzko
53. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
(Admit it, who shares stuff before reading it?)
Check out: buffer
54. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
The “LinkedIn” (see also Forbes) “Borrowing”
personal authority – these implementations are broken for different reasons atm
See: LinkedIn and Forbes
55. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Brands as “real” publishers
(See: Red Bull)
Read: Mashable
56. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Real world APIs
(banks, I’m looking at you)
See: Mashable
57. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Bricks and mortar aggressively acquiring startups
There is real innovation in fashion and e-comm for example (see: brandid)
58. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Putting unexpected people in charge
You should read all these articles about Harper Reed, CTO of Obama for America: The Atlantic, BusinessWeek, Mother Jones, gigaom, Time
Photo: juggernautco
59. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Obsessively implementing new stuff first
There are first-mover advantages to technology shifts such as rel=author
Illustration by: marketingfacts, from crossing the chasm
60. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Cross-functional teams outside normal hierarchy
Read about the NYT interactive team
Read: The Avalanche at Tunnel Creek
61. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Beware! You might be competing with loss-making teams
The NYT modelled an avalanche!
Read: Modeling an avalanche
63. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile”
Source: cnet
64. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
Mobile devices get PCs get more like
more like PCs mobile devices
Faster Touch
Better at browsing App stores
Easier to purchase on Instant on
65. WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow
http://www.distilled.net/events/linklove-london/
…and Searchlove Boston in May:
http://www.distilled.net/events/searchlove-boston/