Mobile Fact Pack Predictions

Mobile Fact Pack
The Hottest Predictions for 2012

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location industry.

Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012

Mobile has both caused and
enabled an irrevocable change
in consumer behaviour

Source: Mobile ﬁnds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA


Every interaction via mobile raises our
expectations
Digital Natives/Generation Y/
Millennials/Connected Consumers
have higher expectations



The age of the Age of the consumer
Empowered buyers

customer! demand a new level of
customer obsession
Contenders include
Facebook, IBM, Best
2010-? Buy and Apple
Sources of Age of information
dominance Connected PCs and supply
chains mean those who control
information ﬂow dominate

1990-2010
Age of distribution Amazon.com, Google, Intuit, MBNA
Global connections and transportation
systems make distribution key

Age of manufacturing 1960-1990
Mass manufacturing makes Walmart, Toyota, UPS, CSX
industrial powerhouses successful
Successful companies
1900-1960
Ford, RCA, GE, Boeing, P&G, Sony

Source: June 6 2011, ‘Competitive Strategy In The Age Of The Customer” Forrester report


Contextual Relevance is the USP
of mobile when dealing with
the digital generation



Mobile is changing our
behaviour at every stage of the
customer lifecycle



Consumers don’t need (want) marketing

Source: Strange PR


Preferred source of product & service information
Consumer ratings 63%

Consumer reviews 62%

Company’s website 50%

Call centre 47%

Email 45%

Video clip 34%

Live chat 30%

Company’s Facebook 15%

Mobile App 9%
Social media sources
Online advertisement 8%
Company’s Twitter 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Source: Nielsen
Source: June 6 2011, ‘Competitive Strategy In The Age Of The Customer” Forrester report


31%
researched a
purchase on
their device
before buying
in-store

Source: Jiwire


Shopping...
Which one of the following have you ever used your mobile phone for?
Base 13,869 European
To check store 22% online adults who own
opening hours 8% mobile phones and
986 European frequent
To locate a nearby store to 19% online buyers who own
purchase a speciﬁc product 7% mobile phones (multiple
responses accepted).
To compare physical store prices with 15%
online prices, when shopping in a store 4%
To check in-store 14%
availability of a product 4%
To read customer 13%
reviews of a product 3%
To check on the 12%
status of an order 6% Social media sources
To look up online product information 12% Online Europeans
while shopping in a store 4%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Source: European Technographics® Retail, customer experience and Travel online survey, Q3 2010


Mobile ampliﬁes the power of
customer review sites



34% of US smartphone
owners said they had abandoned
a purchase in-store after
seeing a negative review
on their mobile



Mobile connects fans in
multiple locations



Mobile changes the
way we interact with
our environment...

...and inﬂuences our
decisions based on
that location



Customer journeys are not linear...
Active evaluation
Information gathering, shopping

Loyalty loop

Initial
consideration
set
Moment of
Trigger
purchase
Postpurchase
experience
Ongoing exposure



The mobile
consumer expects:
 Convenience
 Multi-channel
 Real time
 Dialogue
 Engagement
 Control



Consumers are
mobile Your
brand must
follow them



70-80% of business data
has a geographic content

Location, Location, Location – Vikas Arora, Solutions Specialist EMEA, Microsoft


The understanding of location enables:
 More relevant search results
 An opportunity for location-based advertisement
and new business ideas
 An additional dimension to search for and
discover information
 Deep insights in business data
 A common operational picture...

...and maps are the canvas to visualise this knowledge
Location, Location, Location – Vikas Arora, Solutions Specialist EMEA, Microsoft


The smartphone is changing iPhone 4S

the time scale of location iPhone 4
A new positioning generation
every 10 months iPhone 3GS

iPhone 3G Gionass

iPhone 2G Gyroscope Gyroscope

Compass Compass Compass

A-GPS A-GPS A-GPS A-GPS

Celluar tower Celluar tower Celluar tower Celluar tower Celluar tower
triangulation triangulation triangulation triangulation triangulation
(Google) (Google) (Google) (Google) (Google)

WiFi positioning WiFi positioning WiFi positioning WiFi positioning WiFi positioning

3-axis 3-axis 3-axis 3-axis 3-axis
accelerometer accelerometer accelerometer accelerometer accelerometer
June 2007 October 2011

Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus


Global smartphone sales (millions)
1,200m

1,000m

800m
Millions

600m

400m

200m

0m
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



The smartphone is
becoming our personal server
to the geo-located world



Location-enabled phones:
 Smartphones now exceed half of total phone sales in
Europe and North America

 Location-enabled phone and smartphone are
becoming synonyms

 Number of location-enabled phones sold will again
double within five years thanks to a take-off in China
and India

 Single purpose devices such as pocket cameras and
PNDs need to find a new positioning



The smartphone can threaten single-purpose
devices such as Octo Telematics’ Clear Box for
Pay As You Drive insurance

Source: PTOLEMUS Insurance Telematics Study
Source: Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus


LBA is the next wave ...and will overcome
 Although discussed for many years
the main challenges:
only now making an appearance  User privacy must be respected
 Hype turns to reality and €  Opt-in and permissions must be clear
 The next big step after SMS  Contact strategy (frequency of
 Today, location location use is still messages) needs to be well-judged,
fairly primitive and limited revenues and varies per segments
 Location has to be integrated  Third-party interfaces to advertising
intelligently with other targeting agencies need building
criteria (age, interests, gender, etc...)  Ultimately real-time auctioning
 Proximity marketing when user platforms for mobile inventory will
near POS works well, e.g. O2 UK exist
Priority Moments oﬀer service



The four chimneys are pushing all
players to integrate vertically

Network Nokia Siemens
infrastructure
A-GPS supl.google.com supl.nokia.com

WPS Apple Google Maps Nokia/Navteq
Symbian +
OS IOS Android Windows Phone
Maemo + Moblin
Browser Safari Chrome / Webkit Novarra Internet Explorer

Device iPhone Motorola Nokia

Search engine Google Search Bing

Map PlaceBase Google Maps Nokia/Navteq Bing Maps
Panoramio/ Microsoft
Local content Nokia/Navteq
Zagat Advertising
Advertising iAd (Quattro Microsoft
AdMob Nokia/Navteq
platform Wireless) Advertising
Android Microsoft
App store App Store DVI Store
Marketplace MarketPlace



Major players are all
attempting to integrate the complete
end-to-end location solution



But ecosystems are also a
highly eﬃcient way of building a
complete solution



 The OS sponsor focuses more on
creating the right enablers and SDK

 No need to develop all new services,
third party developers do it

 Number of services/applications
increases dramatically

 Competition becomes more diﬃcult
because it is more complex to ﬁght
an ecosystem



GPS satellite positioning monopoly is
ending, as new constellations emerge
Glonass Other GNSS
 Reached full operational capacity  Galileo will have launched first four
(24 satellites) in December 2011 satellites by year end
 Faster TTFF  Beidou achieves operational
 Dual-use most beneficial in urban positioning capacity (only regional
canyons coverage)
 Somewhat superior service in
Northern latitudes
 Different standards (FDMA vs.
CDMA) has slowed adoption but
now most chipset vendors support it



The mass market for indoor positioning is maturing,
setting off a transformation of our lives in the near future
Market for indoor positioning Indoor technologies & maps
 We spend 80% of our time indoors,
are emerging
IPS is the future:  Criteria for success: cheap, scalable
• Shopping malls, airports and offices and accurate
– to find specific goods or people  Dominant solution will be a
• Airports and hospitals – security combination of technologies, notably
applications including theft, rescue WiFi, Cell-ID, MEMS (gyroscopes,
and exit accelerometers)
• Trains and subways, for location-
based content towards travellers  Solution will be software-based (Pole
Star, Insiteo) or chipset-based (CSR)
 Indoor is where the business takes
place: shopping, contracts signed, etc.  Maps are also coming from Micello,
Navteq, Microsoft and Google



Cell-ID has the potential to strike back
The performance of positioning technologies compared

High 100

75
Performance

50

25  Cell-ID
 GNSS
 WiFi
 IP address
Low 0
Accuracy Low cost Coverage Presence Automatic
Ecosystem Reliability Latency Energy Opt-in
Comparison factors



All these companies will want to know your car’s location
Connected car services and players

Resource Navigation
& search vendors Car OEMs
management
Handset
vendors
Resource Social Multimodel Traffic &
Maintenance management networking other services eCall
navigation
firms
Car Car LBA/ Stolen Voice & Mobile
maintenance sharing LBM vehicle messaging
recovery operators

Power suppliers Energy PAYD/ Road user
management Finance PHYD bCall charging
Toiling
operators

Banks & Assistance
Oil companies Insurers
leasing firms providers



At last, geo-connectivity is reaching
vehicles in large volumes
Number of connected vehicles Numerous factors are helping
in use in Europe (in millions)  The take-oﬀ of low cost embedded
50 navigation systems such as Renault’s
 Other (SVR, speed camera warning systems)
 Aftermarket systems/Fleet management
Varinat TomTom
40
 Aftermarket systems/RJC
 Aftermarket systems/PAYD insurance
 The eCall project in the EU, which is
 Aftermarket systems/Connected PNDs scheduled to be mandated in all new
 eCalls
30  Embedded navigation systems type-approved cars and LCVs by end 2015
 The ERA Glonass project in Russia,
which will apply the same constraint to
20 all motor vehicles in the Russian market
by end 2013
10  The development of national road
charging schemes
0  The take-oﬀ of PAYD insurance
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 aftermarket systems


Navigation and local search are becoming one and the
same business
 Google and Nokia have destroyed the business case for navigation-only services
• Google present in two biggest mobile OS platforms, IOS and Android
• Google represents vast majority of local/map searches
• PND sales are falling
• Car last platform where paid navigation is dominant model
 Navigation ﬂies with local search (pull)
• Hence TomTom’s acquisition of iLocal
• Challenging to design a large scale freemium model where both free premium
levels work
 Next step will be LBA (push)
• Knowing where your are where you are going to suggest where to purchase
• Google best placed... Unless Apple develops own navigation



We expect the eCall OBU to be used as a
multi-service box for the connected car
 The 2010 Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) Directive creates the
framework for a European-wide implementation of eCall
 The European Commission aims at mandating eCall for all new
type-approved vehicles by end 2015
 Certan OEMs have already deployed eCall on most models,
notably PSA, Volvo and BMW
 Daimler just announced that it will deploy it on almost all
models from June
 We expect the eCall box to be used as the gateway to connected
car services (connected navigation, insurance, stolen vehicle
recovery, remote diagnostics, etc.)



We expect the number of insurance telematics
vehicles to be multiplied by 50 by 2020
PAYD trials & launches globally PAYD has reached its tipping point
USA  Since 1997 (Progressive’ ﬁrst trial), 94 trials
UK worldwide and 54 commercial launches
Italy  Success stories in multiple countries,
France notably Italy (Unipol), Spain (Mapfre),
France (Groupama), the UK (Insure the
South Africa
box), Austria (Uniqa) and the US
Germany
(Progressive)
Ireland
 Overall, we estimate PAYD-equiped
Belgium
vehicles at over two million worldwide
Spain

Other
0 5 10 15 20 25 30



What are the ﬁve current major challenges to
geolocate the 16 billion objects in Europe?
 Power consumption for a large number of objects from
consumables to home keys
 Size and weight for low value consumables such as food and
drinks
 Cost e.g. for low-end consumer electronics such as watches
 Industries that are not used to integrate electronic components
into their products e.g. handbags or car keys; or that do not have
the location culture (digital cameras, surveillance cameras)
 Ecosystem road blocks e.g. for credit cards or containers



 The location game is not over, it is starting
 The speed cycles will be given by the smartphone
 There is value in location: by combining it with other elements
into an end-to-end experience
 In our view, the location industry needs to revisit the obvious
and deﬁne smart ecosystem strategies rather than just throwing
up products to its customers!
 Our upcoming Global Location Study will provide the
technology and market insights



Typical Indoor environments attenuate GPS beyond
detection for commercially available receivers
GPS
Attenuation
Level

40-45 dB
Cannot detect indoors

30-31 dB
Advertised aided
commercial 25 dB
C(A) acquisition
threshold
(A-GPS cell
phones) 12-14 dB

Advertised unaided
commercial C(A) Wooden Brick- 2 level Small Typical Indoor Dense urban
acquisition threshold building faced parking commercial North Arena/ environment
(A-GPS cell phones) masonry structure building America Mall
residence
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR


Positioning using GPS – How it works

Low cost GPS engine enables
location in Smartphones
24 satellites orbiting at
altitude of 12,000 miles

2D position requires
three satellites



 Corporate WiFi is deployed for  Existing WiFi and cellular signals are
broadband and indoor location surveyed and logged in a database
 Angle-of-arrival, time-of-arrival or  ‘Finger prints’ of RF signals are
received signal strength is used to recorded in a database
calculate position  Position is determined by
 Position server records location interpolating ﬁnger print data
dynamically



Three LBS markets – Enterprise, Asset Tracking and Consumer
Enterprise/gov segment Asset tracking segment Consumer LBS segment
Targeted at government and large This segment is targeted at fixed This segment is targeted at
enterprises where there is a need (Vending sys, office/lab/medical consumers at Big-Box stores and
for content access control, campus equipment, etc) and mobile (goods Malls. The technology will be used
maps/WiFi tiles restriction (for in transit, fleet, people, etc.) asset to guide shoppers to the right
employees only), military-grade tracking in large enterprises and departments and Product areas.
geofencing, etc. healthcare institutions. Provide retail-specific coupons and
specials, etc. @20B advertising
Market trends and attributes: BYOD, Market trends and attributes: low
business.
handheld location policies, MDM, cost (<$25) mobile, MRM/M2M
Geofenced security (military grade). apps with outdoor-indoor tracking
Location context Apps
Market trends / attributes. Focucus
on indoor commercial retail with
Deferentiator:
three-metour
Deferentiator: • Location accuracy
• Indoor positioning and locations • Indoor positioning capability Deferentiator:
• Agile middleware applications • Server Location Aiding (A-GNSS, • Indoor navigation
• Boeing Irridium radio E-ECID OTDOA • SLA



Total LaaS market (volume of units)
1,000,000,000
900,000,000
800,000,000 18% CAGR
700,000,000
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
 Consumer LBS Total Market 209,024,554 246,313,077 283,601,600 352,684,041 438,594,256
 Mobile Enterprise Total Market 129,535,398 130,800,752 132,078,759 133,369,547 134,673,243
 Asset Tracking M2M Total Market 135,000,000 168,750,000 210,937,500 282,000,000 352,500,000



 Location innovations are making the world a smaller place
 Indoor location will dramatically change the marketplace
 Cloud and web services enable new business models
 New multibillion € businesses will evolve leveraging new
location technologies



01 LBS
A location-based service (LBS) is an information
and entertainment service, accessible with
mobile devices through the mobile network and
utilizing the ability to make use of the
geographical position of the mobile device.
Wikipedia

Location Based Advertising: What does it mean to brands and do the agencies care? – Asif Khan, Founder, LBMA


02 LBM
Location-based marketing (LBM) bridges the gap
between all forms of marketing media. Inclusive
of social media, internet, out-of-home and real
life interaction. It is about the integration of
media to inﬂuence people in speciﬁc places.
The LBMA



Smartphone ownership

50

46% 46%
40 42%

32%
30 31%
30%

20 21%
21%

10

0
Global North Europe Developed Emerging Latin MENA Sub-
America Asia Asia America Saharan
Africa

Source: TNS/Kanter Group


Why are people using location-based services?

50

46%
40

30

25%
20 22%
19%
13%
10

0
Navigation Finding friends Finding Checking public For a deal or
nearby restaurants transport speciﬁc oﬀer



How much interest is there in using
location-based services?

People not
currently using
LBS and not
interested 38%

62% People not
currently
using LBS, but
interested



Preference for mobile oﬀers delivery
% of respondents, January 2012

60
60% 60%
 US
 UK
50
 Germany 50%
 France 49%
40
38%
30 32%

26% 26% 26%
20 21%
18%
16% 16% 13%
10 11% 10% 12% 12%
8% 4% 9% 4%
2% 1%
0
Voicemail Text Mobile web Mobile App Opt not to Other
(email, etc.) receive them on
mobile



What are brands trying to achieve?
CONNECT

 Interact and engage an audience
 Tap into user-generated content
 Excite and delight their audiences

 Drive permission-based relationships
COLLECT

 Acquire key data including demographics,
interests and location-based data

 Drive to web for online engagement
$
CONVERT

 Drive to store for coupons and oﬀers
 Drive to experience at a location



Augmented reality in LBS
% of respondents, January 2012

3500
 Mobile, in-App advertising
3000  Mobile, in-App purchase
 Mobile, paid applications
2500  Handheld AR games
US$ Millions

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

ABI Research Mobile Augmented Reality, Thomas Alt, CEO, Metaio


 Smartphone adoption will lead to massive
growth of the Mobile AR market
 Consumer adoption of Augmented Reality will
be based on individual but solid use cases
 Revenues for Mobile AR will be generated from
• In-App advertisement
• AR games
• In-App purchases
• Paid applications
 Revenues will grow from $21 million
in 2010 to $3 billion in 2016

Source: Augmented reality in LBS – Thomas Alt, CEO, Metaio


By 2014, AR will be on
every Smartphone

Source: XXX

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