The African Regional Action Plan on the Knowledge Economy (ARAPKE) was developed in association with the Second African Regional Preparatory Conference for the World Summit on the Information Society held in Accra, Ghana in February 2005. The political will for knowledge–based economic development has been reinforced consistently since 2005 by subsequent communiqués and regional meetings that have convened key stakeholders (Union 2006; Union 2010). The ARAPKE presents a continent wide, coordinated strategy to transition towards knowledge-based economic development. ARAPKE highlights the need for economic integration into the global economy which is increasingly dominated by knowledge-based industries. The African vision of knowledge-based economic development calls for collective effort to achieve the following objectives: • To use information to accelerate development, induce good governance, and foster stability; • To provide wellbeing and increase employment, reduce poverty, and empower underprivileged groups; • To enhance the natural capital and human capacity of the region and minimize internal inequalities; • To further benefit from information by fully becoming part of the global information society (Union 2005). Similar to other regions of the world, the African vision for knowledge-based economic development is at the nexus of economic, political, and social objectives related to national competitiveness and economic policies that support innovation, technology development, entrepreneurship, workforce skills development, adoption of high performance organizational structures, and ICT infrastructure development (Planning 2010). Rischard (2009) observes several common development objectives, job creation, economic integration, economic diversification, environmental sustainability, and social development, which have underpinned successful transitions to knowledge-based economies elsewhere that are also reflected in the ARAPKE. As is articulated in the African vision, a vital precursor to knowledge-based development is human capital development that is conducive towards developing a society characterized by skilled, flexible, and innovative individuals nurtured through quality education, employment, and broadly accessible life-long learning opportunities (Planning 2010). In the 1960s, Becker (1994) underscored the critical link between human capital and economic growth when he observed “Since human capital is embodied knowledge and skills, and economic development depends on advances in technological and scientific knowledge, development presumably depends on the accumulation of human capital.” More recently, Kuruvilla and Ranganathan (2008) show that, given sufficient skills levels, a development strategy based on the export of low-cost and high-end knowledge-based services is a viable alternative to the more traditional low-cost export-oriented manufacturing strategies for developing countries. Thus, the movement of many developing countries towards knowledge-based economic development inevitably requires the transition to more effective skills formation systems. Lack of effectiveness of skills formation systems to produce high-level skills serves as a constraint to knowledge-based economic development. Adaptability and congruence of skills formation systems and constituent actors in response to factors such as economic development, skill demands of employers, technological progress and industrial strengthening, and macroeconomic trends is critical to knowledge-based development (Schwalje 2011). However, many countries in Africa are caught in a ‘low-skills equilibrium’ which is characterized by “a self-reinforcing network of societal and state institutions which interact to stifle the demand for improvements in skill levels (Finegold and Soskice 1988).” The African countries that have escaped the low skills equilibrium and formed higher skills based economies now face a poor match be

1. A Conceptual Model of Skills Formation for Knowledge-based Development in Africa 6 th International Conference on ICT for Development, Education, and Training Dar es Salaam, Tanzania May 25 – 27, 2011 Wes Schwalje, Independent International Development and Policy Strategist PhD Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science

3. The African Regional Action Plan on the Knowledge Economy articulates the vision for knowledge-based economic development in Africa To enhance the natural capital and human capacity of the region and minimize internal inequalities To use information to accelerate development, induce good governance, and foster stability African Regional Action Plan on the Knowledge Economy To provide wellbeing and increase employment, reduce poverty, and empower underprivileged groups To further benefit from information by fully becoming part of the global information society 1 2 3 4 Source: African Regional Action Plan on the Knowledge Economy: A Framework for Action. Addis Ababa, African Union The plan states 4 objectives …

9. Large informal labor markets Enrollment is massive compared to growth in paid employment Yet some countries are keeping pace Formal sector employment is a small % of the labor force; Enrollment (supply of skills) far outpaces growth in paid employment (demand for skills) in the majority of countries Sources: ILO, UNESCO, CIA World fact book Assumptions: Straight line growth of paid employment at historical CAGR for countries with data for 4 or more years; Last available data was used when data was insufficient Evidence of role of education in the informal sector lacking Country ∆ Employment 2000 - 2010 Paid employment as % of Workforce Indicative ∆ in Enrollments ∆ in Enrollments / ∆ in Paid Employment Angola 50,835 6.03% NA NA Benin 18,198 2.34% 691,001 (1999 to 2005) 38 Botswana 11,418 50.87% NA NA Burkina Faso 111,449 5.05% 30,559 (1999 to 2003) 0.27 Burundi 13,315 1.60% 1,004,343 (2003 to 2009) 75 Cameroon NA 4.87% 2,776,488 (1999 to 2009) NA Central African Rep. 763 0.80% 34,461 (2008 to 2009) 45 Chad 7,039 0.52% 1,042,075 (2000 to 2009) 148 Congo NA 4.54% 118,743 (2000 to 2003) NA Côte d'Ivoire NA 10.08% 75,337 (2006 to 2007) NA Djibouti NA 0.51% 22,684 (2003 to 2007) NA Egypt 3,519,963 52.24% NA NA Eritrea NA 2.99% 173,552 (1999 to 2009) NA Mozambique NA 2.04% 1,861,222 (1999 to 2005) NA Niger 6,393 0.75% 1,054,121 (2003 to 2010) 165 Nigeria NA 0.61% 7,575,858 (1999 to 2005) NA Senegal 114,060 5.62% 994,206 (1999 to 2008) 9 Seychelles 8,544 83.70% NA NA Sierra Leone NA 6.62% NA NA South Africa 4,099,343 51.03% 228,994 (2000 to 2009) 0.06 Sudan NA 2.05% 2,630,587 (2001 to 2009) NA Swaziland 27,191 26.06% 36,040 (2002 to 2006) 1 Tanzania NA 5.30% 3,680,050 (1999 to 2005) NA ROUGH ESTIMATE

10. Skills Formation for Knowledge-based Development Assessment Success Factor Performance in Advancing KBE Evidence Coordination Enrollment far outpaces growth in paid employment indicating access initiatives are proceeding faster than job creation Policy Alignment Evidence that some countries are effectively coordinating policy. However, skills formation cannot be driven only by a select minority group in the labor force that is formally employed Broad-based, Inclusive Skills Formation There appears to be no clear direction to integrate those in the informal sector into the KBE despite notable E&T access gains Relevancy and Employability Quality Assurance Access Workforce Investment Workforce Development Investment Optimization Lifelong-learning High Low Adequate

14. Sources: World Bank Enterprise Survey The prevalence of internal skills gaps and the constraints placed on firm operations and growth suggest E&T systems are not creating the general skills demanded by employers % of total firms which have skills gaps % of firms which indicated skills gaps are the most important obstacle to the operation and growth of their firms

16. The Grade 5 survival rate proxies educational quality and access; Several countries have quality and access rates exceeding Brazil and India Brazil (76%) India (66%) Sources: UNESCO

17. Skills Formation for Knowledge-based Development Assessment Success Factor Performance in Advancing KBE Evidence Coordination Enrollment far outpaces growth in paid employment indicating access initiatives are proceeding faster than job creation Policy Alignment Evidence that some countries are effectively coordinating policy. However, skills formation cannot be driven only by a select minority group in the labor force that is formally employed Broad-based, Inclusive Skills Formation There appears to be no clear direction to integrate those in the informal sector into the KBE despite notable E&T access gains Relevancy and Employability For countries in low skill equilibria, skills needs are being met. However, countries at intermediate stages require stronger skills Quality Assurance There is anecdotal and empirical evidence of quality issues. Yet, compared to other developing countries there is progress Access Rather incomplete enrollment statistics and Grade 5 survival rates reflect adequate levels of access Workforce Investment Workforce Development Investment Optimization Lifelong-learning High Low Adequate

20. Sources: World Bank Enterprise Survey As compared to other developing countries and based on E&T system quality, the incidence of firm-based training suggests workforce investment is likely inadequate Brazil (67%) India (16%) Do you offer formal beyond “on the job” training to your permanent employees? China (93%) Russia (37%)

21. What percentage of your total permanent employees received formal training last year? Skilled Employees Unskilled employees Sources: World Bank Enterprise Survey Only a small percentage of skilled and unskilled employees are receiving training; Firms in other developing countries are training more of their employees Firms in comparison countries are training more of their staff

22. What was the average number of weeks of training for each employee ? Skilled Employees Unskilled Employees Sources: World Bank Enterprise Survey When firms do provide training, however, the duration appears longer than in comparator developing countries Firms in comparison countries provide 1 week of training

23. Skills Formation for Knowledge-based Development Assessment Success Factor Performance in Advancing KBE Evidence Coordination Enrollment far outpaces growth in paid employment indicating access initiatives are proceeding faster than job creation Policy Alignment Evidence that some countries are effectively coordinating policy. However, skills formation cannot be driven only by a select minority group in the labor force that is formally employed Broad-based, Inclusive Skills Formation There appears to be no clear direction to integrate those in the informal sector into the KBE despite notable E&T access gains Relevancy and Employability For countries in low skill equilibria, skills needs are being met. However, countries at intermediate stages require stronger skills Quality Assurance There is anecdotal and empirical evidence of quality issues. Yet, compared to other developing countries there is progress Access Rather incomplete enrollment statistics and Grade 5 survival rates reflect adequate levels of access Workforce Investment Firm based training rates are low and training reaches very few employees Workforce Development Government-education-industry collaboration is anecdotally low; This conclusion is also supported by the extent of skills gaps Investment Optimization Lifelong-learning High Low Adequate

27. Skills Formation for Knowledge-based Development Assessment Success Factor Performance in Advancing KBE Evidence Coordination Enrollment far outpaces growth in paid employment indicating access initiatives are proceeding faster than job creation Policy Alignment Evidence that some countries are effectively coordinating policy. However, skills formation cannot be driven only by a select minority group in the labor force that is formally employed Broad-based, Inclusive Skills Formation There appears to be no clear direction to integrate those in the informal sector into the KBE despite notable E&T access gains Relevancy and Employability For countries in low skill equilibria, skills needs are being met. However, countries at intermediate stages require stronger skills Quality Assurance There is anecdotal and empirical evidence of quality issues. Yet, compared to other developing countries there is progress Access Rather incomplete enrollment statistics and Grade 5 survival rates reflect adequate levels of access Workforce Investment Firm based training rates are low and training reaches very few employees Workforce Development Government-education-industry collaboration is anecdotally low; This conclusion is also supported by the extent of skills gaps Investment Optimization Calibrating individual invetsment in education and training is problematic due to job competition, screening, and filtering down Lifelong-learning There is a lack of a lifelong learning culture complicated by the voltaility and uncertainty of private returns to skilling High Low Adequate

28. [email_address] www.wesmba.com http://wesschwaljephd.blogspot.com http://uk.linkedin.com/in/wesschwalje You can contact me at It is difficult to bring such a discussion to a neat conclusion. Nor is there much point in attempting to offer “recommendations. ” These are some initial ideas aimed at encouraging a systematic approach to what is both a national and continental issue, in Africa, the Arab World, Latin America, even Western Europe and the US