Marshall Sponder: Use Big Data to Predict Viral Marketing October 23, 2013, 11am PT | 2pm ET Duration: 1 hour Marshall Sponder is CEO of Web Metrics Guru and an independent Web Analytics and SEO/SEM specialist working in the field of market research, social media, networking and PR. He provides digital data convergence generating ROI and develops data metrics, KPI’s and dashboards that drive businesses by setting and evaluating benchmarks. He lately focuses on social media metrics, having worked as a group leader at IBM and Monster, done contract work at Porter Novelli PR, small busines, and start-ups. Clients have included various B2B companies, the New York Times, architects, digital ad agencies, and more. He has provided Web tracking and attribution metrics for Gillette, Laughing Cow, and others. Marshall holds an MA in Media Studies form the NY Institute of Technology and possesses a Certificate of Marketing Management from the Baruch College, a NY Continuing Education Division. Register for this webinar - See more at: http://www.netbase.com/news-events/events/social-savvy-webinar-series/#sthash.GoeNv9U1.dpuf

1. Using Big Data
to measure the
Effectiveness of
Viral Marketing
Marshall Sponder October 23, 2013

2. What does it take to identify, ideate, create
and track Viral Media Campaigns?

3. Data supporting
demand for Viral
Media, particularly
Viral and Social Videos

4. 35% of adults who post
videos online (11% of all
adult internet users)
hope to see their video
go viral.
- Pew Report - Pew Internet
http://www.reelseo.com/online-video-uploads-double-years-35-hope-viral-report/

5. The number of adult
Americans who watch online
video has risen to 78% while
those who upload video to
the internet has doubled
since 2008 from 14% to 31%.
Source: PEW Report

6. More people are enjoying Online Videos and
recommending them to their friends, augmenting viral spread
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/how-social-video-is-replacing-cable-2013-6

7. WOM is the most popular way to share content
that would go viral
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/how-social-video-is-replacing-cable-2013-6

8. Photo and Video-Based Social Media
Gains Widespread Adoption Among Retailers
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/photo-and-video-based-social-media-for-retail-2013-7

9. Facebook seems to be the best place to
embed Social Video (campaigns)
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/how-social-video-is-replacing-cable-2013-6

10. User generated content & professional (Paid Ads) are
the preferred way to create and spread Viral Video
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/how-social-video-is-replacing-cable-2013-6

11. Viewers are affected when viewing strong
Video Content including Video Advertising
campaigns
Note: We started our inquiry around Social Videos because
that is Unruly area of focus and their secret sauce.

12. Exposure to Social Video campaign for Go Pro Hero 3 in the UK increased
likelihood of viewers to buy products and services ~400% than those not
exposed.

13. Emotions are at the root of Viral Marketing - we do not
share what we are not feeling strongly about"

14. New Analytics are needed for New Media
"The TV industry is at an inflection point now
with the introduction of new media, which is
expanding the need for a new kind of
analytics".
- David Poltrack, chief research officer at CBS
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2013/092313-gartner-big-data-274085.html

15. What is Big Data?
Source: www.idg.com.au/cio/events/futurestatecio/BigDataWhitePaper-May2013.pdf

16. Understanding and managing
“Big Data” is part of Social Video
and Viral Video Campaigns.
Platforms such as NetBase and
Unruly can be combined to
provide New Insights to drive
Actionable Results.

19. Good marketing research is relevant
and rigorous.
Relevance cannot be achieved
without rigor, but rigor can be
achieved without relevance.
- Karen Nelson-Field - Viral Marketing - The Science of Sharing

20. The widely accepted view is that an
emotional response is important
in driving further cognitive or behavioral
responses.
Reactions to advertising-or anything else
for that matter-are rarely purely rational.
- Karen Nelson Field, Viral Marketing, The Science of Sharing

21. Explanation of the Brand Passion Index Will Content Spread?

22. Emotive Tracking for VIRAL Campaigns using NetBase

23. Scoring EMOTIONS and PASSION/INTENSITY can
be adapted to Social Campaign tracking

24. Scoring Strong Passion for a SPECIFIC EMOTION
NetBase can do something almost no other platform was built to
process - analyze text for any emotion and intensity

25. Brand Passion Index: Dancing with the
Stars Crushes the Competition | NetBase
http://www.netbase.com/sentiment/brand-passion-index-dancing-with-the-stars-crushes-the-competition/
NetBase is an unparalleled platform for understanding the feelings around any topic and can
be used to understand what topics and content could take off and become viral, and why

26. NetBase recently launched TV Show Analysis Dashboard reveals at a
glance key metrics and real-time trends in audience reactions to
various TV/Cable shows (show: The Walking Dead].
Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase

27. The NetBase TV
Show Analysis
Dashboard shows
key metrics and
real-time trends
in the audience
reaction and
passions at a
glance to any
content
programming.
Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase

28. A Connection between TV Viewership and Twitter has been vindicated a
Nielsen study earlier this year and several recent acquisitions by
Twitter of Bluefin Labs, Trendrr and from Nielsen, SocialGuide
Nov?
40%
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-twitter-advertising-system-2013-5

29. Out of the Box NetBase is able, via TV Analytics, to identify individual
elements of a show, such as the characters against each other for
buzz and sentiment passion intensity.
Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase
Note: An additional step, based on this webinar, would be combining emotion tracking along
with the TV Analytics that NetBase provides and come up with what specific emotions and
effects Online Content has along with the effect the emotion has on Viral Sharing.

30. Episodes can be compared to each other on a range of criteria,
including Passion Intensity
Source: TV and Ads eBook – NetBase

31. Certain types of programming are more influenced by Tweets of
Viewers than others, particularly Competitive Reality (i.e.: The Voice),
Face Off, American Idol where both Unruly and NetBase have more data
to work with.
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-second-screen-is-a-top-mobile-activity-2013-9

32. The stakes for hitting it right with Socially Viral Media (esp.
online video campaigns) will be sky rocketing past 2016
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-second-screen-is-a-top-mobile-activity-2013-9

33. Online Videos analyzed for Passion/Intensity/Sentiment
Unruly – Viral Video Chart 9/30 – Top Social Videos

34. NetBase detects emotion and behavior much
easier than other platforms I have worked with

35. Arousal Valence Emotions Grid
Source: Karen Nelson-Field - Viral Marketing, The Science of Sharing, Table 3-2, page 24

36. Two factors of sharing –
psychological and Social motivations

38. Unruly Media Psychological Response
Note: The classification system above is similar but not identical to what Karen NelsonField uses in her research on Viral Marketing and in her book on Social Sharing.

39. Reading Sentiment using NetBase
Hilarity Filter – this is one of 16 psychological filters I built using NetBase Composer

40. Ylvis - The Fox (What does the Fox say?) [Official music video HD]
Note: This video was shared by 1:13 people who viewed it.

41. Unruly Data on Ylvis The Fox corresponds to some extent with NetNase's Emotion sharing - reaffirming the link between
emotion and sharing

42. Want a Million Likes on Facebook?
It's All About the Re-shares
Source: Allfacebook.com

43. STUDY: If A Facebook Post Hasn’t Gone Viral
In Three Hours, It Probably Won’t
Source: Allfacebook.com

44. Twitter explains how Chris Hadfield went viral |
Technology | theguardian.com

45. Facegroup » Twitter Video Virality - Chris Hadfield

46. Telekinetic Coffee Shop Surprise#1 on Unruly Viral
Video Chart as of 10/13/13
http://viralvideochart.unrulymedia.com/youtube?id=VlOxlSOr3_M
The video was shared 1:21 which is somewhat less than Ylvis the Fox

48. Astonishment drives many responses to top online
video (social) campaigns

49. Encoding Emotions is possible
using NetBase with Unruly

50. The Value of using
NetBase and
platforms such as
Unruly to drive
marketing results
that are Actionable.

51. Figuring out, at least, partially what content is sharable
has high value to both Marketers and Creatives
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-rise-of-native-advertising-2013-10

52. Facebook is a good way to spread viral content, esp.
for mobile based viral campaigns
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-rise-of-native-advertising-2013-10

53. Video Ad Networks, Video Sites and Social Media are where
the Ad Spending and Viral Seeding funds are best spent
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-rise-of-native-advertising-2013-10

54. Brands Get Beyond Hype when they connect emotive,
sharable content with powerful social tactics
https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/earned-media-on-social-beyond-the-hype-2013-7

55. Rutgers University & Unruly partnering to create a
course about the details around Creating Viral Media
(using Big Data)
Launching late 2013

56. What is on the Unruly Menu?

57. Practical Takeaways
NetBase can be used along with Unruly Viral Video Chart to understand not only what
is trending, but why - and which direction it will go next. Net offering such as TV
Analytics can benefit by understanding both passion points and emotion tracking that
lead to Viral Spreading of content,
Content can be tested to see how it scores on emotion based on the panel that exists
on the internet (that comments on the content).
Using Unruly Viral Video Chart we were able to derive the ratio between viewing
content and sharing it - this can be monitored to find out what is really catching on
(going viral) and when it happens.
Using NetBase, we can learn what emotions are stimulating to specific audience, map
audience based on emotions (not done here) and begin to build predictive models of
what content will be stimulating to audiences you're trying to reach.

58. Thank You!
Marshall Sponder
CEO, WebMetricsGuru INC
www.webmetricsguru.com
@WebMetricsGuru
now.seo@gmail.com
Facebook.com - SocialMediaForTheArts