The document summarizes research findings from a study on envisioning the future of libraries in the UK. It identifies several key trends that may impact libraries, including an aging population, economic challenges, increasing diversity, and changing consumer behavior driven by new technologies. These trends present both challenges and opportunities for the future delivery of public services and libraries.

1. 1
Envisioning the library of the future
May 2012
Canada Water Library, London, 2012.
Photo: Michael Cameron Photography

2. 2
Welcome
Arts Council England
Shared Intelligence

3. Introduction
3
• October 2011 - Arts Council England assumes
responsibility for museums and libraries
• changing landscape: looking at libraries services from
2022
• Envisioning the library of the future: developing a long-
term vision
• four elements of the research – Shared Intelligence and
Ipsos Mori
• your input will help us to shape our vision
Join the online conversation at
http://librariesconversation.wordpress.com/
and on Twitter using #ACElibraries

4. 4
Version - FINAL | Internal Use Only
Ipsos MORI and Shared Intelligence
Research findings: the story so far… May 2012
© Ipsos MORI

5. Introduction
5
Running alongside an innovation review…
• A rapid evidence review of major societal, economic and
technological trends
• A Delphi Enquiry to test possible impact of these on libraries
• Inform the debate about what society might look like in 10 years time…
• … and the impact, if any, this could have on libraries
• Ensure this debate is grounded in the evidence
• Encourage us to move away from the immediate issues, and to the future
• Draw on the findings to develop and then test a series of ‘scenarios’
© Ipsos MORI

6. The rapid evidence review
6
• Review available evidence to help inform a debate about what society
might look like in 10 years time and the impact, if any, this could have on
libraries
• Draws on latest available data from Ipsos MORI and wider publicly
available sources pertinent to the debate (ONS, national surveys, etc.)
• Focuses on ‘high level’ issues
• … while aiming for as much coverage as possible: population, community
and society; future public service delivery; households and families;
economy, work, consumer behaviour; poverty and inequality; young people
in society; engagement and participation; technology, reading and literacy
• Time constraints - it is not intended to provide extensive coverage of all
relevant data sources
© Ipsos MORI

7. The Delphi Enquiry
7
• Involves asking a panel of experts to consider a series of statements or
propositions about how the country might look in 10 years time,
drawing on the trends review
• Test c. 50 statements – how likely they are and will there be an impact
on libraries?
• Two waves of an online survey over March and April
• Second wave allows us to establish how views change, diverge or converge
• 41% and 30% response rate, from c. 200 invited
The key headline trends found to be most relevant to the
debate were as follows…
© Ipsos MORI

8. A growing and changing population
8
• In 2010 there were 62.3 million people living in the UK - by 2020 it will be
67.2 million…
• Our population is ageing
• 65+ and 85+ age groups growing fastest - “oldest old” (over 85 years)
growing faster than any other age
• Matched with a fall in proportion of under 16s
• Implications for old age support ratios (fewer people of working age for every
person of state pension age)…
• … not to mention demand for informal care from families/ communities, and
the demand on public services – potentially outstripping supply
• And is becoming increasingly diverse
• 89% define themselves as white, but varies significantly by area
• Net migration into the UK accounted for 62% of population growth between
2001 and 2008 Source: ONS, UK population predicted to reach 70 million by mid 2027, 2011
ONS Pension Trends, February 2012
Cabinet Office, Realising Britain’s Potential: Future Strategic Challenges for Britain. 2008
1ESDS, Integrated Household Survey, 2010/11
2
ONS, Social Trends, 40 2010
© Ipsos MORI

9. But, at the same time concerns remain around poverty
and inequality… 9
Over the next ten years, poverty will...
Source: Nat Cen, British Social Attitudes 28, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

10. Negative outlook for the economy continues
10
• GDP growth in the UK was positive in 2010, but
among the lowest of the G8 nations
• Central government debt (as a % of GDP) has
increased dramatically
• Figures to 2009 show UK middling among the G8
nations
• We have lost more than a decade in wage growth. In the best scenario, pay would
rise back to its pre-recession peak before the end of the decade
• Inflationary pressures have outstripped wage growth in the last year, reducing
purchasing power
• According to Mintel, the three most important factors that affected consumer
wellbeing in 2011 were rising retail prices (29% ranked it number one), increased
costs of utilities (22%) and rising prices of petrol (21%) Source: OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, 2011
IMF
Spectator, Are we facing an American nightmare, 2011
Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2012
Mintel, British Lifestyles: The Consumer, August 2011
© Ipsos MORI

11. The public remains pessimistic – 7 in 10 cite the economy as
the most important issue facing Britain today 11
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Economy
Race / immigration
Unemployment
Crime/
NHS
Law &
Order
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI, Issues Index, 2012
© Ipsos MORI

12. Unemployment has continued to rise, along with public
pessimism – public sector particularly hard hit 12
Year Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index and ONS Labour force survey
© Ipsos MORI

13. Like the public at large, public sector leaders are pessimistic
about the economy – although least so in local government 13
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve,
stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Don’t know 2%
Improve
Get worse
Results by sector
Stay the
same All Loc. Cen. Hlth Edu NDPB
Gov Gov
Net -27 -18 -35 -29 -33 -28
optimism
Base: 338 Public Sector Leaders, 27 June – 22 July 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI, Public sector leaders survey, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

14. Presents huge challenges for public service delivery
14
• Funding/grants and budget cuts continue to be viewed as the most
important issue facing the sector, by the sector
• Government looking to reduce the scale of public sector borrowing:
• October 2010 Spending Review indicated that, on average, central government
funding to local authorities will decrease by 26% over the next four years, much
of which has been front-loaded
• Over this period budgets are expected to decrease by around 14% (taking into
account projections for council tax)
• The sector expects more of the same post 2015
Source: Ipsos MORI, Public Sector Leaders Survey, 2011
DCLG, Local Gov Financial Statistics, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

15. Playing to the British public’s sense of fairness, public prioritises
the protection of services for those who need them most 15 15
Which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about
reducing the deficit?
Neither Don’t know
The only way for the government to
reduce the deficit is to cut spending
on all services, even if that
includes services that are mainly
used by people who most need
help
The government’s priority should
be to protect services for people
who most need help, even if that
means that other people are
harder hit by tax rises and cuts to
the services they use
Base: 504 British adults 18+, 18th-20th June 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters, Political Monitor, 2010
© Ipsos MORI

16. Public expects to pay more and get less
16
Q: Do you think the following will increase, reduce or stay the same in the
next financial year (April 2011)?
Reduce Stay the same Increase Don’t know
The level of council tax you pay
3%
The amount of money the council receives from government to provide services
5%
The range of services the council offers
3%
The quality of services the council offers
3%
The value for money you receive from the council for the services it offers
3%
Base: 1,002 GB adults 18+ interviewed by telephone Source: LG Insight/Populus, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

17. Means that some local authority services aren’t a priority for
protection 17 17
Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public spending do you
think should be protected from any cuts?
The NHS/health care
Schools
Care for the elderly
The Police
Social services
Defence
Benefit payments
Local authority services
Overseas aid
None of these
Don’t know
Base: All who think some services should be protected (773), June 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index, 2009
© Ipsos MORI

18. A push towards localism? The changing face of public
service delivery… 18
• Government push to allow councils greater control over how they
spend grants and raise revenue, allowing them to focus on local
priorities and respond to local needs
• View that communities are best placed to find the best solutions to
local needs and that local public services should be more accountable
to local people
Where does the public sit on this?
• People are in favour of greater local control in principle – but are
concerned about fairness
• We want flexibility, responsiveness and other desirable features, but
are unwilling to countenance risks to the ‘safety net’
• Fairness is also key, but it’s not straightforward – different meanings
• Uniform provision vs. Minimum standards vs. Looking after ‘deserving’
vulnerable Source: DCLG, A plain English guide to the Local Government Finance Settlement for 2011-12, 2011
The Coalition: Our programme for government, 2010
Ipsos MORI/2020, Public Services Trust, 2010
© Ipsos MORI

19. But, is it realistic to rely on local communities mobilising?
19
Levels of involvement/ interest in involvement in local services
Already involved (4%)
Want active involvement (5%)
1.5m people
Want more of a say
And 7.2m people 24%
47% Just want information
16% Don’t care
Base: 1,896 GB adults, 18+. Sept 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI, 2008
© Ipsos MORI

20. Likely to see increasingly new and diverging forms of
public sector service delivery 20
• Sharing services to achieve greater efficiency and improvements, with councils
delivering services jointly
• Improving procurement practices and cutting “waste”, particularly back office
(e.g. finance, IT, HR, procurement, payroll)
• Greater emphasis on (cheaper) online services
• Local communities taking over public assets
• More fees and charges for services
• Strong opposition to user charging, especially for core services e.g. GP
• But, are those who can see advantages – in particular, higher earners and infrequent
users of public services
• Outsourcing
• General support for greater involvement from the voluntary and private sectors –
especially in non-core services – but some need to be convinced
• But, at same time volunteering levels declining
Source:1 DCLG, A plain English guide to the Local Government Finance Settlement for 2011-12, 2011
2
Ipsos MORI/2020 Public Services Trust, 2010
Ipsos MORI/DCLG, Citizenship Survey, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

21. At same time, need to consider how consumer behaviour is
changing 21
• Consumers have more choice and power than ever before – fuelled by
growing use of technology
• Used to constant innovation, can get bored easily and are less loyal
• Are comfortable with using a wide range of online sources to research their
purchases and track down the best deals and services (e.g. through price
comparison sites and online reviews from other users)
• Will not only expect to be able to access information 24 hours a day, but
also make requests for it
• Will expect personalised services accessible via their mobile phones
• … significant implications for public services
Source; ONS, Social Trends Index, 41, 2011
Moxie, 2012 Trends Report, 2012
Mintel, Empowered Consumer – UK – September 2010Moxie, 2012 Trends Report, 2012
McCann Eriksson, Britain 2012 Owner’s Workshop, 2012
© Ipsos MORI

22. “Down time” being seen as an increasingly valued
commodity 22
• We are working more than we did 20 years ago…
• Since 1981 two-adult households have added six hours – nearly a whole working
day – to their combined weekly workload
• On-the-go technology, mobile broadband and high speed internet has
conditioned the idea that we must always be connected and reachable
• At the same time, changing family dynamics…
• Increasingly families seeking and creating opportunities to spend more time
together, preferably in the home
• Today’s parents spend an average of 99 minutes a day engaging with their
children compared with 25 minutes in the 1970s
Source: Ipsos MORI, UK Trends & Futures, Family & the Good Life, 2010
Department of Children, Schools and Families, National Survey of Parents and Children - Family Life, Aspirations and Engagement with Learning, 2008
European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Fourth European Working Conditions Survey, 2007
Mintel Inspire FSTR and HYPR, April 2011
© Ipsos MORI

23. … leading to a desire for a slower pace of life – the majority
of us want more time to rest or do nothing at all 23
To what extent do you agree or disagree that...?
Base: Individuals aged 16 to 64 in 4 European countries Source: Ipsos Le Slow, May 2011
© Ipsos MORI

24. Much of this is being fuelled by the growth of technology,
which is set to continue 24
• People are becoming more rather than less
enamored with new technology…
• 8 in 10 homes now have a computer
• Sales of Smartphones outpacing sales of desktops
and laptops
• Even reflected in Consumer Prices Index and Retail
Prices Index 'shopping basket’
• 9 out of 10 marketers use social media to promote their business
• A mobile revolution…
• One of the fastest growing platforms in the world
• Seen as the door to the future – an efficient way to find information (news,
local events), keep in touch and save time
• Almost 4 in 10 (38%) now access the internet via their mobile phone Source: Ipsos MORI, Tech Tracker, 2011
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/13/teenage-fiction-ipads-inflation-basket
http://www.digitalbuzzblog.com/facebook-statistics-stats-facts-2011
http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/social-networking-2011_b12969
© Ipsos MORI

25. The internet is changing the way we consume information
25
• The internet appears to have low impact on reading than when compared with
watching television, for example
• But, if asked directly, some users think that the internet has decreased the time
they spend reading newspapers (17%) and books (18%)
• Reading of online newspapers or news services has been increasing, but
appears to now be stabilising (30% 2007; 57% 2009; 55% 2011)
Source: Oxford University, OxIS, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

26. The rise of e-publishing and ‘pay walls’ – the end of
books as we know them? 26
• E-publishing is expanding and looks set to stay…
• E-book sales rose by 623% between January and June last year
• Almost 1.4 million e-readers were sold in the UK over Christmas 2011, double
the amount sold in 2010
• Most UK publishers believe that books will be published in both electronic and
paper form by 2016
• But, 2 in 3 still think that e-publishing will not displace other forms - instead will just
lead to a growth in the market
• A rise of paywalls
• Growing readership of online national newspaper sites presents challenge for
industry as media content struggles to retain a sense of value
• 3 in 4 readers are currently unwilling to pay anything for online newspapers/
magazines
Source: BML, Publishing 2001: attitudes to technological change, 2011
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/23/times-digital-subscriptions-double-price
Mintel, Paid-For vs Free - Consumer Attitudes to Pricing in Media and Music - UK - April 2010
Nielsen BookScan, 2012
Publishers Association, 2012
/
© Ipsos MORI

27. Technology is particularly impacting on how children
and young people consume information 27
• “Kids' definition of reading is changing in the Digital Age: one in four kids
think texting with friends counts as reading” (Scholastic)
• But, could technology actually be a positive motivator to get kids
reading?
• 57% of children (age 9-17) say they are interested in reading an eBook
• A third of children age 9-17 say they would read more books for fun if they
had access to eBooks on an electronic device
• Children still do embrace printed books
• 66% of 9 – 17 year olds agree with the statement "I'll always want to read
books printed on paper even though there are ebooks available”
• Children today have to know how to handle far more information than
their parents did when they were children, but is this at the expense of
critical thinking?
• 39% of 9-17 year olds agree with the statement “the information I find online
is always correct" Source: Scholaastic/ Harrison Group, 2010 Kids and Families Reading Report, 2010
© Ipsos MORI

28. Multimedia and online communication form the bulk of what
young people are reading outside school nowadays 28
Which of these do you read outside of class, at least once a month?
Source: National Literary Trust. Annual Survey into young people’s reading, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

29. But, 1 in 4 still not using internet – reinforcing the
digital divide 29
% Accessing the internet by gender and social grade in 2011
All 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Males 84 94 92 93 83 81 58
Males AB 95 100 100 98 100 97 78
Males C1 90 95 99 95 91 89 66
Males C2 78 93 90 83 83 82 45 Internet access
Males DE 68 92 82 86 55 43 33 80-100%
50-79%
All 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
0-49%
Females 78 94 94 90 87 77 41
Females AB 90 100 100 98 95 92 62
Females C1 87 100 96 94 95 84 51
Females C2 79 94 95 93 90 77 32
Females DE 56 79 88 73 54 47 24
Source: Oxford University, OxIS, 2011
Base: 4,003 GB adults aged 15+: Jan/Apr/July/ November 2011 Ipsos MORI, Tech Tracker, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

30. So what does all this mean for libraries?
30
• Libraries are not immune to these
societal, economic and technological
trends…
• … but what does it all mean for them
going forward?
• Many are adapting to, and embracing,
these developments, as our
innovation review shows…
• In addition, we should think about the
“library-specific” context …
Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010
DCMS, Taking Part Survey, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

31. What role for libraries?
31
• In 2010/11 39% of adults said they had visited a library in the last 12
months
• Fewer visit libraries each year now than five years ago (down from
48.2% in 2005/6)
• Non-users get books and information elsewhere, as other sources seen as
more convenient (especially online)
• The public library brand is strong, but awareness of libraries’ offer is low:
• The public thinks libraries are mainly about books and reading, as well as
access to computers and the internet
Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010
DCMS, Taking Part Survey, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

32. Technology is a large driver of reasons for not visiting…
32
• What are your main reasons for if any,libraries/library services?
What are your main reasons, using for not using public libraries (nowadays)?
Top 10 mentions
I prefer to buy books from a shop/
online
I’m too busy
Nothing of interest to me
Have the internet at home/ no need
to use the library
I don’t like reading
My nearest library is too far
away/not convenient
Internet gives better access to
information/ more convenient
Opening hours aren’t long enough
Difficulty getting to the library
Prefer to go somewhere else, e.g.
coffee shops/bookshops
Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010
Base: People who say they used to be library users or who have never been (470)
© Ipsos MORI

33. But, a wider public attachment to libraries, even among
non-users 33
How important or unimportant do you think public libraries are as a service to
the community?
Current users
Essential
Very important
Fairly important
Lapsed users Not very important
Not important at all
Non-users
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010
Base: Al respondents (1,102)
© Ipsos MORI

34. And libraries are seen as a social leveler – even more
important in the current climate? 34
• In the current climate, there is cross party agreement that other services should be
preserved ahead of libraries… BUT…
• Libraries reach across the social spectrum
• An asset, particularly in building partnerships with other services
• Important in bringing communities together – places where people from different
backgrounds and ages can meet
• Role in supporting learning, among children and adults
• While public access points are not frequent sources of help with the internet,
libraries are the exception, particularly for those on low incomes
• Research shows that most people think they need to remain free
• Part of their important social role
• Although some say they would be willing to pay (more) for specific services
Source: National Literacy Trust, Literacy: State of the Nation A picture of literacy in the UK today, 2012
Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010
Oxford University, OxIS, 2011
© Ipsos MORI

35. 35
Version - FINAL | Internal Use Only
The story on innovation…
May 2012
© Ipsos MORI

36. Innovation: how libraries are responding to trends and
pressures 36
Why review innovation?
•Some answers to future challenges are being found now
•Informs the scenarios
What we looked for:
•More than ‘good practice’ or ‘good examples’
•New methods, ideas, services, products
© Ipsos MORI

37. Innovation in the entire library service
(everything at once) 37
• Huge investments, can’t be done everywhere, but innovations can
be transferred (Birmingham, Newcastle, Manchester, Delft)
• Future focused: social spaces, wider cultural offer, sustainable
buildings, entrepreneurial partnerships
• Digital focused: building e-readership and digi-skills, digitising
unique items, linking catalogues
© Ipsos MORI

38. Innovation in individual parts of the service
(incremental, lots of examples) 38
• Reader development to support mental well-being (Reading Cure,
The Reader Org)
• Peer-to-peer lending and sharing (book-shares, book-crossing)
• “Doorstep libraries” (community development meets librarianship)
• Providing access to expensive technology (e.g. make-it-
yourself/3D printing)
• Connecting school and public libraries (e.g. Shout About)
• Promoting library use through social games, social cataloguing
and discovery (QR codes, hidden messages)
© Ipsos MORI

39. Innovation in funding models
39
• Alternatives to the 100% tax-funded model:
• Service-specific community levies (e.g. Queens Park, Denver
USA)
• Programmes to generate donations from public and users (e.g.
Delft means-tested membership model)
• Fundraising from major donors (e.g. Manchester fundraising
arm)
• Plus: shared and multi-purpose spaces, merged
or shared management, contracting out etc
© Ipsos MORI

40. Individual libraries adopting more distinctive definitions
of their purpose 40
• Creating community history
• Information literacy
• Supporting innovation and enterprise
• Bridging languages
• Social mission/social justice
© Ipsos MORI

41. Innovation in the professional role
41
• Updating the librarianship curriculum
• Peer networks of next generation librarians
• Community development explicit part of the role
© Ipsos MORI

42. Innovation in the library systems
42
• Joining up catalogues across multiple local
authorities (Libraries West, London Libraries
Consortium)
• Open-source cataloguing/Wikipedia type approaches
© Ipsos MORI

43. Applying the concept of “public library” in new, useful, ways
43
• Public spaces: airports, stations
• Libraries in un-used spaces
• Living-book library
© Ipsos MORI

44. One more trend
44
• Bookends library futures, New South Wales - how a public library service
in New South Wales might look in 2030.
• Reimagining New York's Public Libraries - action research developing and
testing adult and youth educational programmes in the Achieve @ NYPL
programme
• Academic libraries of the future - led by the British Library
• Future of Dutch Public Libraries - looked 10 years ahead – influenced
Dutch Library School
• The state of America’s Libraries - American Library Association – issues
around digital, budgets and censorship (e.g. Fifty Shades of Grey)
• The Carnegie Trust library futures - Carnegie ‘re-engages’ with libraries
and social value
• Pew Centre, American Life project – looking at libraries through several
studies supported by the Bill and and Melinda Gates
© Ipsos MORI

45. 45
… so over to you!
Version - FINAL | Internal Use Only
Thank you… any questions?
For further information contact victoria.harkness@ipsos.com or May 2012
ben.lee@sharedintelligence.net
© Ipsos MORI

46. 46
Version - FINAL | Internal Use Only
Four stories about the year 2022…
May 2012
© Ipsos MORI

47. 47
Scenario 1
•public spending geared more towards those most in need
•more fees and charges for services, more freedom for councils
•more services delivered by commercial organisations, more done
by volunteers
•online social interaction influences social attitudes,
•public wifi is commonplace
© Ipsos MORI

48. 48
Scenario 1: For richer or for poorer
The year 2022, small town in South Devon
Dev and Nina moved to the town because of the new local ‘levies’ they have introduced to
support community services. Locals have now voted-in a series of these new charges, most
of which began as online campaigns. Each one pays for a specific service. The children’s
activity centre was first, then free local buses (Dev now works for the company who runs
them - it is expanding fast), and most recently the town’s superfast public wifi.
Nina became a local councillor four years ago. The council’s income has fallen every year,
while demands on services grow and grow. Anything which can be automated has been
(even parking fines are worked out by sensors instead of traffic wardens). But Nina has led
two of the most controversial changes in policy. One was the introduction of means-tested
charges for almost all council services. The other was to create a new department of
volunteering specialists which now manages hundreds of unpaid locals doing everything
from the bins, to providing personal care for the elderly.
It has been a hard introduction to local politics, but Nina is proud of what she has helped
shape. Her party has just retained power on the council. Nina believes this shows the public
recognise the situation here is better than elsewhere, where services have simply shut and
attempts at reform and increased volunteering have been badly handled.
© Ipsos MORI

49. 49
Scenario 2
•more people work from home
•parents and guardians require childcare from a network of carers
and family
•mobile devices are primary means of accessing information of
any kind, information is consumed is short bite-sized chunks,
•more online content is behind a pay-wall, images displacing
written text
© Ipsos MORI

50. 50
Scenario 2: This digital life
The year 2022, suburban village in Leicestershire
Michael works from home; freelancing for an inquiry centre. Today he is responding to
customer web-queries on behalf of a supermarket. For each query he searches out an
answer, then dictates his reply. He gets paid per reply; more if the customer rates his
answer ‘helpful’. His wife Summer does the same, but also sells her own photography,
earning micropayments when her images are used. They take turns to take care of their
three-year old daughter. Sure, the work is a bit dull, but it’s flexible and if you are fast at
compiling answers then the pay is alright.
The couple sometimes have PictureNews on in the background when they are working. They
like the international editorial slant. There’s no talking or text ribbons, just photos and
videos showing the day’s headlines from around the world. It also works out cheaper than
the domestic channels, as you only pay for what you watch.
Overall the family feel content. They are not well-off, but are well-educated and feel
informed, and in-the-know. They can afford the latest web technology which makes life
easier, simpler, means they can work from home, and makes Summer’s photography side-
line possible. A large print of one of Summer’s photos, a self-portrait, rests on the floor in
the hallway, but she has to move it as their daughter keeps trying to “pinch” and “swipe” it
like the images on a screen.
© Ipsos MORI

51. 51
Scenario 3
•aging population, England more ethnically diverse, demands on
services outstrip supply
•public spending in decline
•Councils joining up and merging, more discretion to raise
revenue locally, more services delivered by commercial
organisations
•pockets of population lack internet skills, 10% do not use online
resources either through choice or lack of access
© Ipsos MORI

52. 52
Scenario 3: Off the grid
The year 2022, outskirts of Manchester
Eleanor lives on her own. The house was brand new when she bought it and a few original
neighbours are still around. Her immediate neighbours, all young, all with children, and all
from overseas, are friendly enough but she doesn’t have much in common with them. They
probably worry about the effect her dilapidated property has on the rest of the street, and
have surely worked out she doesn’t have an account with the security patrol company either.
She never meant to opt out of everything, but that’s where she finds herself. She declined
refuse collection when they started charging, and takes her bin bags to the collection site
herself (or quickly pushes them into litter bins on the high street). She gave up her data
service as she barely watched anything or did anything online anyway. She uses a mobile to
keep in touch with family and has never had any messaging accounts; even when she
worked she somehow managed to avoid email.
Being off the grid can be frustrating for her, but not half as frustrating as it seems to be for
her bank, the hospital, and myriad other agencies who fail to understand how she can
survive offline. As for the stack of admin charges and fines owed (for missed medical
appointments, payments, and personal information she has failed to provide ) she is
confident none of these distant, over-stretched, bureaucracies stand any risk of tracking her
down before she herself has long departed.
© Ipsos MORI

53. 53
Scenario 4
•median wages have remained stagnant, more people work from
home
•public expect all services to be accessible the instant they need
them
•use of portable digital devices is habitual
•reading for pleasure remains one of the most popular pastimes
•more demand for self-led learning and remote learning
© Ipsos MORI

54. 54
Scenario 4: A fresh start
The year 2022, northwest London
It’s 8am on a Saturday and Daniel’s a man with a plan. He’s about to finish another book.
Like most of what he’s read this past year, it’s about Italy. He highlights useful references in
the final chapter and makes a few notes. His big idea is - catering with a twist. He won’t just
visit clients’ homes and cook a menu, he’ll teach them about the food’s background, maybe
suggest a novel or film set in the region. His marketing blurb promises to “impart passion,
as well as sustenance”.
He is also cramming for his business planning and marketing course, but the next task today
is getting certified for food safety. He has decided to pay extra for a preparatory webchat. He
connects into the service and within a few seconds a face appears and an official greets him.
Daniel talks the official through what he is showing him – electrics, storage, fridge, cooker,
oven, waste and hand-washing. The official suggests some changes, but also helpfully
explains that just from this first session Daniel has already cleared five of the 20 mandatory
steps to certification.
It’s hard work launching his first ever business but Daniel relishes it because he’ll finally
regain control and be doing something he loves. If he’s lucky it will also re-fill his retirement
plan. Even with thirty years’ experience in media, his last three fixed-term jobs paid less
each time, and each involved several weeks of no work in-between.
© Ipsos MORI

55. 55
… so back to you!
Version - FINAL | Internal Use Only
May 2012
© Ipsos MORI