4. Section 1 – Introduction
Where we will end up?
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 2
5. Section 1 – Introduction
Businesses are taking action to prepare for a potential Eurozone fall-out
Formerly profitable regions have Minimising country exposure
become unviable through cash management
“Carrefour pulls out of Greece” “Vodafone sweeps all spare cash
out of Greece every evening”
FT, 15 June 2012 Bloomberg, 9 February 2012
Limiting supply chain exposure Redesigning products to suit new
customer needs
“ArcelorMittal announced the “Unilever looks to sell goods in
permanent closure of its blast cheaper, smaller packages
furnaces in France” in Europe”
Economist, 6 October 2012 Fox Business, 27 August 2012
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 3
6. Section 1 – Introduction
No industry is safe as uncertainty continues
Industrial/ Siemens opened account with the European Central Bank seeks to protect €12B in
Auto cash
Ford has configured its computer systems to be able to immediately handle a new
Greek currency
Banking Credit Agricole transfers all Greek balances to Paris nightly, looking to sell its
Greek banks for €1
JPMorgan has created new accounts that are reserved for a new drachma or
whatever currency might succeed the euro in Greece and other countries.
Consumer Pepsico also sweeping cash out of southern Europe daily
Goods Dixon has contingency plans for its 69 owned and 29 franchised Greek stores
Pharma Pharma companies worried about supply chain and receipts from
European health services
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 4
7. Section 2
What are other companies doing?
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 5
8. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Consider the following (real-life) example
US Company
Majority of revenues in Euro
Company recorded ~$ 65mio loss related to Greek government bond holdings
Accounts receivable in Southern Europe totals ~$ 900mio
$ 350mio are past due more than 120 days
Critical suppliers based in Eurozone scenario
Board questions to CFO
- Should we be concerned?
- How are we impacted if “something bad” happens?
-How can/should we protect ourselves against adverse scenarios?
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 6
9. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Approach
Objective: identify and assess the potential risks as a result of the Eurozone crisis and
develop contingency plans to proactively mitigate this risk.
Situation
• Look at European business operations and financial assets and liabilities – assess the
Assess
exposures and risks on a country-by-country basis from a strategic, operational and financial
perspective.
• How much exposure does we have? Where are the concentrations? How much can we bear?
Scenarios
• Define potential Eurozone outcomes – include several different scenarios, from optimistic to
Define
worst-case scenarios, looking at the short-term and long-term.
• Quantify how we would be impacted by each scenario.
• Determine which risks are acceptable and which need to be mitigated.
• For the risks that need to be mitigated, come up with a contingency plan including financial
Execute
and operational mechanisms to reduce risk exposure.
• Assign ownership for plans and monitor effectiveness of mitigation plans over time.
• Revisit scenarios as conditions change and make adjustments to the risk mitigation plan if
necessary.
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 7
10. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Considering scenarios for how the Eurozone could evolve…
Main Scenario: Successive phase of monetary and fiscal action hold the
Eurozone together
• Eurozone leaders act to save the euro
• Policy support to inflate the economy
Greek Exit: Greece exits the Eurozone and a firewall is built around
other economies
• Greek exit of the Eurozone
• Currency union remains intact but causes an 18 month contraction in Eurozone
• The Greek economy would enter a severe recession
New ‘euro’: A new currency union is formed by the stronger economies
• An unravelling of the Eurozone starting with Greece’s exit
• New currency union of the ‘core’ economies is formed by Germany and France
• Capital flight to ‘new euro’ supports output growth in the medium term
• Exiting countries have high inflation and low output
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 8
11. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Assess business impact and exposures across all functions...
Revenue • Assess revenue breaking point and strategize to maximize revenue under different scenarios
• Prepare for lost revenue due to customer insolvency
Legal • Contract review, renegotiation and amendments.
Procurement • Review third party relationships (e.g. supply and procurement contracts, lease contracts)
and Supply • Change internal operations (e.g. documentation, pricing arrangements, customer payment mechanisms)
Contracts • Review procurement options in the event of key supplier insolvency
IT • IT changes, e.g. systems configuration, payment and billing systems changes, master data, transaction data
migration, package applications and support arrangements.
Finance • Changes to statutory and management reporting;
• Changes to planning, budgeting and forecasting e.g. contingencies, restatement of historical data, costs to
implement the Eurozone restructuring; and
• Presenting finance and accounting data in new formats, e.g. conversion of balances, fixed asset valuation
restatements, changes in consolidation processes.
HR/ People • Review compensation and benefits, payroll arrangements and implications
• Manage communications to shareholders, stakeholders (including Works Council/ Trade Union),
customers and suppliers regarding organisational impact and arrangements
Tax • Tax implications on new and existing contracts
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 9
12. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Focus on Treasury
Problem Statement
• Banking reaction to Eurozone results in (further) credit squeeze;
• Which scenarios will cause covenants to be triggered, cash to be trapped?;
• Possible capital and foreign exchange controls invoked at short notice;
• Have parameters been set for exchange rate appetite if volatility increases and new currencies are created?;
• Euro hedging strategies may need to be disaggregated by country, with aspects no longer effective as ‘new’ currencies are created; and
• Working capital strain as customers take longer to pay + suppliers weakened looking for prompt payment.
Critical Questions
• Is there an appropriate forum for discussing working capital and cash forecasting?
• How is credit risk currently monitored? Should changes be made to better predict and/or react to declining credit? Have counterparty risk policies
and credit scoring processes been reviewed?
• What cash can be moved to neutralise euro exposures, surplus repatriated?
• Ability of weak zone euro banks to provide local funding, match debt location to assets?
• What will become of local deposits if banks are no longer functioning?
• Implication of bank accounts no longer functioning & impact on cash pooling arrangements?
• Ability to redirect /collect customer proceeds outside high risk countries?
• How might increasing currency volatility impact FX hedging programs?
• Do intercompany loan agreements need to be amended?
Actions / Remediation
• Develop contingency plan for cash management, funding and risk management;
• Assess funding sources and ability to access them in Euro jurisdictions at risk;
• Develop investment strategies to enable surplus funds to be held in investments and jurisdictions aligned with the organization’s risk appetite;
• Maintain dialogue with key banks and consider impact on banks with significant direct or indirect exposure to Eurozone countries at risk;
• Consider the impact of redenomination risk by legal jurisdiction / category of contract. This should include ISDA & inter-company agreements;
• Develop strategies and policies to allow hedging strategies to be amended or implemented with relevant CTP’s;
• Identify and quantify significant AR and AP exposures;
• Consider creating centralised payment hubs to enable local payments to continue to be paid in the event of local disruptions; and
• Design and build effective stress test models that cover extreme but feasible scenarios.
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 10
13. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Some companies have already taking action
Organizations are proactively taking steps to mitigate the risk of the crisis:
1. De-risking foreign currency holdings – moving cash out of Eurozone into “safer” currencies
2. Managing supplier exposure in the Eurozone – no long term contracts
3. Mitigating refinancing risks – setting cash aside for upcoming bond repayment / refinancing
4. Performing assessment of net Euro exposure by country
5. Increasing cash reserves by controlling non-essential expenditures
6. Preparing for volatility in the exchange market by reassessing hedging strategies
7. Analyzing impact of new currency introduction in procurement and sales contracts as well as IT support systems
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 11
14. Section 2 – What are other companies doing?
Summary Approach and Methodology – Pulling it together
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 12
15. Section 3
Regulatory pressure and challenges
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 13
16. Section 3 – Regulatory pressure and challenges
Regulatory challenges for Corporates
Corporates demonstrate varying degrees of preparedness for the forthcoming
regulation - from wait and see to fully initiated projects and budgets set to implement
changes required.
Dodd- “…when one compares Dodd-
EMIR Frank IFRS Frank to the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002, SOX seems
FTT FATCA almost quaint: Dodd-Frank is
more than 10 times longer,
and mandates more than ten
times the rulemakings and
SEPA
studies that SOX required.”
SEC Commissioner Kathleen
L. Casey
Are you prepared?
While many new rules are geared toward financial firms, there
will be significant impacts to non-financial companies
CFO Roundtable • Navigating uncertainty in the Eurozone March 2013
PwC 14
17. Contact
Hans Candries
Director – Consulting Treasury
Tel: +32 3 259 32 46
Mob: +32 493 240 525
hans.candries@pwc.be
March 2013
PwC
