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Foreign Affairs: The Most Popular
 Countries in Debating Motions
Outline
•   Somalia
•   North Korea
•   Iran
•   Afghanistan
•   Israel & Palestine
•   …and a bit on Pakistan

Credits to: Jordan Anderson
Somalia
Somalia
• Used to be functioning
   – Up to 1950s – an Italian colony
   – 1950s-80s – a dictatorship (but a
     functioning one!)
• Status Quo
   – UN/US forces pulled out in early
     1990s (“Black Hawk Down”)
   – several groups competing for
     power
Pirates
• Many are former fishermen
  – After state failed, had to turn to
    piracy
  – Part of moral blame is on
    Western Fishing Corporations
• Wrongdoings
  – Attacking civilians
  – Hijacking Saudi oil tankers
  – Kidnapping tourists from
    neighboring countries
Al-Shabaab (“The Youth”)
• A militant Islamist group
• Goal: set up an Islamic state
  with Sharia laws
• Has ties with Al-Qaeda
• Love-hate relationship with
  pirates
   – Cooperation against transitional
     government
   – But mutual blackmail and conflicts
Transitional Federal Government


• Small Western- and African
  Union-backed government
• Controlling only parts of
  Mogadishu
Somaliland
• A de-facto independent state
   – Secession after the collapse of
     Somalia
• Established a decent
  governance; maintains law &
  peace
• Not recognized by any country
Motions
• THW invade Somalia
 Proposition                        Opposition
    Stop piracy                       Turn to guerilla war
       Restore law & order            Turn to religious war
       Long-term economic growth         Attract other Islamist
    Smash Al-Shabaab (training            militias
     base of Al-Qaeda)                 Piracy “is morally
    Functioning government             acceptable”
     CAN be built                         Western Fishing Companies


• THW covertly fund pirates & Al-Shabaab to fight each other
North Korea
North Korea
• Split after WW2
• Nuclear weapons
   – Not many, but exist
   – However, launching capabilities
     are extremely poor
• China sort of supports NK
Motions
• THW assassinate Kim Jong-un – and his family
 Proposition                         Opposition
    Entire regime based on a             Army and generals will
     family heritage                       struggle for power
        Moral justification                  Civil war or NK vs. SK war
        All are guilty

• THW allow North Korea to have nukes
 Proposition                         Opposition
    Control & transparency              Very risky & unstable
    Remove fear of invasion -> NK       NK may invade SK / sell nuclear
     less paranoid                        R&D to other bad countries
    Balance of powers (US-CN-NK)        Spiral of countries getting nukes
Iran
Iran
• 1979 – Islamic Revolution
• Ayatolla – religious leader
   – Also adopts all the laws
   – Elements of democracy
• Since 1980s – IR supports
  foreign terrorist groups
• Status Quo
   – “Arab spring” among urban youth
   – Nukes; originally obtained
     “because Iraq had them”
   – Want to be dominant power;
     counter Israel
Terrorist groups
• Currently Iran funds:
   – Hezbollah (Lebanon)
       Make Lebanon Islamic
   – Hamas (Palestine)
       Destroy Israel
• Possible reasons
   – Genuinely anti-Israeli
   – Use conflicts to distract attention
     from Iran
   – Provoke sanctions (by denying
     Holocaust etc.) to profit from the
     black market (e.g. satellite dishes)
Motions
• THW allow Iran to have nukes
• THW invade Iran
 Proposition                  Opposition
    Similar to Libya            Religious insurgency
    Opposition to regime        Big country that hates NATO

• THW give Iran money / security technology
 Proposition               Opposition
   Want security -> get it        “Blame West” policy
                                   Help incumbents’ vested
                                    interests in the black market
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
• Best times – kingdom up to 1980s
• 1979 – Soviet invasion; pretty
  much destroyed the state
• Mujahedeen drove Soviets out –
  but Somalia-style lawless little
  states were created
• In the beginning the Taliban acted
  against Mujahedeen
   – Wanted to impose law & order
Status Quo
• NOT ideological war, rather Taliban insurgence
   – Personal (clan) grievances
   – Political factions
   – Lack of centralized administration
• Pashtuns – majority of AF’s population; mountaineers
   – Not everyone, but most of the Taliban is Pashtun
   – No national identity, no will for central government
• NATO forces & Karzai regime – deeply corrupt
   – Corruption is often the only way to control some provinces
Motions
  • THW include the Taliban
 Proposition                           Opposition
    Different factions , each wants        The new regime will impose many
     peace & order                           things against Human Rights
        Can buy them off                   Hard to negotiate – no clear leader
    The only way for a valid               Have to accept their ways to make
     democracy                               money, i.e. poppies and heroin

 • THW get (the hell) out of Afghanistan now
  Proposition                 Opposition
      Everyone failed ruling them            Worse than SQ (poppies + Al-
                                               Qaeda)
      Extremely hard to fight                Moral responsibility to current
          Mountains                           allies
          Tribal rules to help everyone      Counter-plan: more intelligent
                                               funding! (e.g. Soviets in 1980s)
Israel & Palestine
Israel & Palestine
• Jewish migration began as early as in 1920s
    – Zionists moving to British Mandate of Palestine
•   1948 – War of Independence
•   1973 – October War
•   1982 – peace agreement with Egypt
•   1987 and 2000 – Intifadas (internal
    uprisings against Israel)
Status Quo
• Israel – Jewish state
• West Bank – 100+ Israeli settlements
   – 300,000+ Israelis
   – 1,000,000+ Arabs
• Jerusalem – a divided city
• Golan Heights – 20,000+ Israelis
• Gaza Strip – under blockade by IL army
   – HAMAS opposes that
Motions
• THBT the West should stop ALL funding until they come to peace
  Proposition                 Opposition
     A huge part of IL budget, esp.       Hamas is funded by IR; if it wins
      military, is US-funded                over Palestine, no more peace
     Meanwhile, Palestine depends         IL will develop a “siege mentality”
      on US/EU support                     US/EU support is merely
                                            helicopters etc. – IL still can
                                            oppress others
   • THW remove settlements
 Proposition                              Opposition
                                              IL as a whole is not quite legitimate
    Territory captured in war                Geneva convention’s aim was to
       Under Geneva convention, a             prevent ethnic cleansing
                                                  Removing settlers is ethnic
         state is not allowed to settle              cleansing
         its citizens there                   People are already there, it is
                                               intrinsically bad to drive them out
Pakistan
Pakistan
• Both PK and IN want Kashmir
• Problems with Islamist militants
• Both are nuclear nations
   – Threat of nukes being stolen is real
• Pakistani intelligence has links
  with Al-Qaeda
• North-West inhabited by Pushtuns
   – Problems with AF
Thank you for your attention!

            Q&A

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Foreign Affairs: The Most Popular Countries in Debating Motions

  • 1. Foreign Affairs: The Most Popular Countries in Debating Motions
  • 2. Outline • Somalia • North Korea • Iran • Afghanistan • Israel & Palestine • …and a bit on Pakistan Credits to: Jordan Anderson
  • 4. Somalia • Used to be functioning – Up to 1950s – an Italian colony – 1950s-80s – a dictatorship (but a functioning one!) • Status Quo – UN/US forces pulled out in early 1990s (“Black Hawk Down”) – several groups competing for power
  • 5. Pirates • Many are former fishermen – After state failed, had to turn to piracy – Part of moral blame is on Western Fishing Corporations • Wrongdoings – Attacking civilians – Hijacking Saudi oil tankers – Kidnapping tourists from neighboring countries
  • 6. Al-Shabaab (“The Youth”) • A militant Islamist group • Goal: set up an Islamic state with Sharia laws • Has ties with Al-Qaeda • Love-hate relationship with pirates – Cooperation against transitional government – But mutual blackmail and conflicts
  • 7. Transitional Federal Government • Small Western- and African Union-backed government • Controlling only parts of Mogadishu
  • 8. Somaliland • A de-facto independent state – Secession after the collapse of Somalia • Established a decent governance; maintains law & peace • Not recognized by any country
  • 9. Motions • THW invade Somalia  Proposition  Opposition  Stop piracy  Turn to guerilla war  Restore law & order  Turn to religious war  Long-term economic growth  Attract other Islamist  Smash Al-Shabaab (training militias base of Al-Qaeda)  Piracy “is morally  Functioning government acceptable” CAN be built  Western Fishing Companies • THW covertly fund pirates & Al-Shabaab to fight each other
  • 11. North Korea • Split after WW2 • Nuclear weapons – Not many, but exist – However, launching capabilities are extremely poor • China sort of supports NK
  • 12. Motions • THW assassinate Kim Jong-un – and his family  Proposition  Opposition  Entire regime based on a  Army and generals will family heritage struggle for power  Moral justification  Civil war or NK vs. SK war  All are guilty • THW allow North Korea to have nukes  Proposition  Opposition  Control & transparency  Very risky & unstable  Remove fear of invasion -> NK  NK may invade SK / sell nuclear less paranoid R&D to other bad countries  Balance of powers (US-CN-NK)  Spiral of countries getting nukes
  • 13. Iran
  • 14. Iran • 1979 – Islamic Revolution • Ayatolla – religious leader – Also adopts all the laws – Elements of democracy • Since 1980s – IR supports foreign terrorist groups • Status Quo – “Arab spring” among urban youth – Nukes; originally obtained “because Iraq had them” – Want to be dominant power; counter Israel
  • 15. Terrorist groups • Currently Iran funds: – Hezbollah (Lebanon)  Make Lebanon Islamic – Hamas (Palestine)  Destroy Israel • Possible reasons – Genuinely anti-Israeli – Use conflicts to distract attention from Iran – Provoke sanctions (by denying Holocaust etc.) to profit from the black market (e.g. satellite dishes)
  • 16. Motions • THW allow Iran to have nukes • THW invade Iran  Proposition  Opposition  Similar to Libya  Religious insurgency  Opposition to regime  Big country that hates NATO • THW give Iran money / security technology  Proposition  Opposition  Want security -> get it  “Blame West” policy  Help incumbents’ vested interests in the black market
  • 18. Afghanistan • Best times – kingdom up to 1980s • 1979 – Soviet invasion; pretty much destroyed the state • Mujahedeen drove Soviets out – but Somalia-style lawless little states were created • In the beginning the Taliban acted against Mujahedeen – Wanted to impose law & order
  • 19. Status Quo • NOT ideological war, rather Taliban insurgence – Personal (clan) grievances – Political factions – Lack of centralized administration • Pashtuns – majority of AF’s population; mountaineers – Not everyone, but most of the Taliban is Pashtun – No national identity, no will for central government • NATO forces & Karzai regime – deeply corrupt – Corruption is often the only way to control some provinces
  • 20. Motions • THW include the Taliban  Proposition  Opposition  Different factions , each wants  The new regime will impose many peace & order things against Human Rights  Can buy them off  Hard to negotiate – no clear leader  The only way for a valid  Have to accept their ways to make democracy money, i.e. poppies and heroin • THW get (the hell) out of Afghanistan now  Proposition  Opposition  Everyone failed ruling them  Worse than SQ (poppies + Al- Qaeda)  Extremely hard to fight  Moral responsibility to current  Mountains allies  Tribal rules to help everyone  Counter-plan: more intelligent funding! (e.g. Soviets in 1980s)
  • 22. Israel & Palestine • Jewish migration began as early as in 1920s – Zionists moving to British Mandate of Palestine • 1948 – War of Independence • 1973 – October War • 1982 – peace agreement with Egypt • 1987 and 2000 – Intifadas (internal uprisings against Israel)
  • 23. Status Quo • Israel – Jewish state • West Bank – 100+ Israeli settlements – 300,000+ Israelis – 1,000,000+ Arabs • Jerusalem – a divided city • Golan Heights – 20,000+ Israelis • Gaza Strip – under blockade by IL army – HAMAS opposes that
  • 24. Motions • THBT the West should stop ALL funding until they come to peace  Proposition  Opposition  A huge part of IL budget, esp.  Hamas is funded by IR; if it wins military, is US-funded over Palestine, no more peace  Meanwhile, Palestine depends  IL will develop a “siege mentality” on US/EU support  US/EU support is merely helicopters etc. – IL still can oppress others • THW remove settlements  Proposition  Opposition  IL as a whole is not quite legitimate  Territory captured in war  Geneva convention’s aim was to  Under Geneva convention, a prevent ethnic cleansing  Removing settlers is ethnic state is not allowed to settle cleansing its citizens there  People are already there, it is intrinsically bad to drive them out
  • 26. Pakistan • Both PK and IN want Kashmir • Problems with Islamist militants • Both are nuclear nations – Threat of nukes being stolen is real • Pakistani intelligence has links with Al-Qaeda • North-West inhabited by Pushtuns – Problems with AF
  • 27. Thank you for your attention! Q&A