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Glevum Afghanistan presidential election 2014 wave one survey findings
1. Core
Glevum Associates
– Developed
Afghanistan Presidential
Election
2014 Poll Results (Wave 1)
December 2013
Key Findings from face-to-face survey of 2,148 Afghans in 34
provinces who are likely to vote in the April 5, 2014
Presidential election
1
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written authority from Glevum Associates.
4. Methodology - Overview
Glevum Associates is pleased to present the main findings
from a national level representative survey measuring the
opinions among Afghans in 34 provinces regarding the
presidential election due to be held on April 5, 2014.
The study sampled 2,148 Afghan individuals who are likely
to vote in the upcoming election and was fielded between
November 27 and December 3, 2014 using face-to-face
interviews. The sampling margin of error is + 2.11 with a
95% level of confidence. For subgroups, the margin of
error is larger.
4
5. Methodology – Sampling Method Summary
The sample was selected using a randomly-selected,
probability sample proportionate to size method. The sample
was obtained using the following steps:
1. The number of completed interviews needed in each province was
proportionate to the country’s total population. (Population figures from
the Central Statistics Organization (http://cso.gov.af/en) were used.)
– The number of sampling points needed in each province was determined by
dividing by 10. (An estimated 10 interviews were conducted at each
sampling unit.)
2. Each district represented a primary sampling unit (PSU). The number of
districts selected in each province was proportionate to the respective
provincial population. The districts were randomly selected using
“probability proportional to size” (PPS) so that each district or PSU,
regardless of population, had the same probability of being sampled.
5
6. Methodology – Sampling Method Summary
3. Villages in each district were then randomly selected using a simple
random selection process.
– Within cities, neighborhoods (nahias) were used; in rural areas towns and
villages were used
4. Starting points (the point at which interviewers begin the household
selection process) were randomly selected using a simple random
selection process.
– Starting points were recognizable locations – such as mosques, schools,
bazaars, or other easily recognizable locations within each of the selected
settlements for the survey.
5. Interviewers used a Kish grid to randomly select individual respondents
within each selected household. The Kish grid avoids only heads of
household being interviewed.
6. Due to local cultural traditions, the universe was divided at the outset
into male and female sub-samples. However, males have registered to
vote in larger numbers than females.
6
7. Methodology – Sampling Method Summary
7. To avoid oversampling females, the samples was split into
approximately 60% males and 40% females.
8. Instability and violence in some provinces/districts has required some
sampling points to be substituted to keep interviewers out of more
unstable and unpredictable areas for their own safety.
7
8. Methodology - Regions
Provinces were assigned to the following regions:
North
South
East
West
Badakshan
Daykundi
Bamyan
Badghis
Baghlan
Helmand
Ghazni
Farah
Balkh
Kandahar
Kabul
Ghor
Faryab
Urozgan
Kapisa
Herat
Jawzjan
Zabul
Khost
Nimroz
Kunduz
Kunar
Samangan
Laghman
Sar-e-Pul
Logar
Takhar
Nangarhar
Nuristan
Paktika
Paktya
Panjsher
Parwan
Wardak
8
9. The Sample: Achieved Population Sample
Achieved Population Sample
Male
Total
Province
Female
Achieved
Sampling
Points 1
Achieved
Population Sample
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Badakshan
9
77
44
57.1%
33
42.9%
Badghis
4
36
23
63.9%
13
36.1%
Baghlan
8
84
48
57.1%
36
42.9%
Balkh
12
122
74
60.7%
48
39.3%
Bamyan
4
31
19
61.3%
12
38.7%
Daykundi
4
43
24
55.8%
19
44.2%
Farah
3
43
24
55.8%
19
44.2%
Faryab
9
82
49
59.8%
33
40.2%
Ghazni
11
89
53
59.6%
36
40.4%
Ghor
5
54
34
63.0%
20
37.0%
Helmand
8
71
47
66.2%
24
33.8%
Herat
17
134
80
59.7%
54
40.3%
Jawzjan
5
49
31
63.3%
18
36.7%
1
Average of 9 interviews per sampling point
9
10. The Sample: Achieved Population Sample
Achieved Population Sample
Male
Total
Female
Province
Achieved
Sampling
Points 1
Achieved
Population
Sample
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Kabul
38
321
192
59.8%
129
40.2%
Kandahar
9
98
57
58.2%
41
41.8%
Kapisa
4
39
22
56.4%
17
43.6%
Khost
5
40
27
67.5%
13
32.5%
Kunar
4
40
26
65.0%
14
35.0%
Kunduz
9
70
39
55.7%
31
44.3%
Laghman
4
41
27
65.9%
14
34.1%
Logar
3
34
19
55.9%
15
44.1%
Nangarhar
14
106
60
56.6%
46
43.4%
Nimroz
1
15
10
66.7%
5
33.3%
Nuristan
1
12
8
66.7%
4
33.3%
Paktia
5
48
28
58.3%
20
41.7%
1
Average of 9 interviews per sampling point
10
11. The Sample: Achieved Population Sample
Achieved Population Sample
Male
Total
Female
Province
Achieved
Sampling
Points 1
Achieved
Population
Sample
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Paktika
4
36
24
66.7%
12
33.3%
Panjshir
1
13
9
69.2%
4
30.8%
Parwan
6
56
36
62.1%
22
37.9%
Samangan
3
26
15
57.7%
11
42.3%
Sar-i-Pul
5
34
19
55.9%
15
44.1%
Takhar
9
87
53
60.9%
34
39.1%
Uruzghan
3
33
29
87.9%
4
12.1%
Wardak
5
56
34
60.7%
22
39.3%
Zabul
3
26
16
61.5%
10
38.5%
236
2,148
1,300
60.5%
848
39.5%
TOTALS:
Note: Males have registered to vote in significantly larger numbers than females. To avoid
oversampling females, the samples was split into approximately 60% males and 40% females.
11
12. Methodology - How “Likely Voters” Were Determined
Summary: To be considered a likely voter, respondents must have had a
voter registration card or plan to obtain a registration card and
“definitely” or “probably” will vote in the upcoming election.
• Likely voters were determined by asking respondents three questions
(provided below). These questions determined whether the respondent
had a voter registration card, planned to get a card, and whether he or
she said they planned to vote.
• Respondents were asked the following:
– Do you currently have a voter registration card?
• If the respondent answered “no, not sure, or prefer not to answer” to the
question above, respondents were then asked:
– Do you plan to register to vote so that you can vote in the presidential
election in April?
• If a respondent did not have a voter registration card (or was not sure or
preferred not to answer) and said that s/he did not plan to register to
vote, s/he was not considered a likely voter and was not interviewed.
12
13. Methodology - How “Likely Voters” Were Determined
• If a respondent had a voter registration card or planned to register to
vote, s/he was asked:
– Will you definitely vote for the president in April, probably vote, or will you not
vote?
• If a respondent indicated s/he will not vote, s/he was not considered a
likely voter and was not interviewed.
• Additionally, if a respondent answered “don’t know/not sure” or “prefer
not to answer” to all three questions used to determine likely voters, s/he
was not interviewed.
•
The requirements for being considered a likely voter will change with waves 2
and 3 by becoming more strict.
13
15. Summary of Key Findings
Most Popular Candidates
•
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay has a 4-point lead over Doctor
Abdullah Abdullah (29% compared to 25%, respectively). About one in
ten likely voters (11%) is undecided.
•
Respondents who were undecided or preferred not to say who they
would vote for were then asked if there is a candidate for whom they
might vote. Of those respondents, 13% said they would vote for
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah and 8% said they would vote for Mohammad
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay.
•
When the answers to these two questions – for whom would you
vote and, if no candidate is mentioned, for whom might you vote –
are combined, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay remains in the
lead with 30% followed by Doctor Abdullah Abdullah at 26%.
•
Additionally, when the two questions are combined, 11% are still
undecided about which candidate they will vote for.
15
16. Summary of Key Findings
Most Popular Candidates
•
Respondents were asked for whom they would vote, if they could not
vote for their preferred candidate. Again, Ahmadzay and Abdullah are
neck and neck (21% and 20%, respectively) as the second choice
candidate.
•
All other candidates are below 10%.
•
Support for candidates varies by region but varies only slightly
between genders.
•
Regardless of whom they support, 26% of respondents still said
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay would win and 21% opined that
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah would win.
•
Among all candidates, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay’s
support is the most firm with 70% of those respondents who
indicated that they will vote for him saying that they will not
change their minds before the April election.
16
17. Summary of Key Findings
Voter Preferences
•
A majority of respondents (63%) prefer the presidential and vicepresidential candidates be from different tribes or ethnic groups, while
a third (34%) says tribal or ethnic affiliation does not matter.
•
Fully 84% of respondents indicate that they would vote for a candidate
from a different tribe or ethnic group than their own or that it would not
matter if the candidate was from a different tribe or ethnic group.
•
Most respondents (59%) would or might vote for a female candidate
for President. Fully 82% would or might vote for a candidate who
asked a woman to run as vice-president.
•
Majorities of respondents consider it is important that a candidate
listens to all sides of an issue before making decisions; provides
specific plans to address AF’s problems; and understand the problems
of people like themselves.
•
Half (50%) support women having more freedom.
17
18. Summary of Key Findings
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Most respondents indicated that they would not be induced to vote for
an endorsed candidate or such an endorsement would not matter.
Fully 85% said they would not be swayed by President Karzai’s
endorsement or it would not matter.
However, 58 percent said they would consider voting for a candidate
that a family member supports.
Security (49%) tops the list of the most important issues the new
president must address followed by economic issues (17%) and
education (6%).
A sizable majority (61%) would vote for a candidate who wants to
negotiate with the Taliban.
An even larger majority (71%) would vote for a candidate who wants
positive relations with the U.S..
Overall, 40% think it important that candidates should want to keep
some international troops in AF after 2014; 51% think it important that
candidates want to maintain good relations with Pakistan.
18
19. Summary of Key Findings
• A large majority (89%) said that they would not vote for a candidate with
a history of corruption.
• Similarly, 78% indicated that they would not vote for a candidate with a
history of human rights violations.
19
20. Summary of Key Findings
Importance/Fairness of Election
• A majority (60%) have heard a lot about the presidential election. Only
8% have heard nothing.
• Radio is the most common source of information about the election (47%
get “a lot” of information from it) followed by family members, TV, and
friends and neighbors. In contrast, only 2% indicated they get “a lot” of
information about the election from religious leaders.
• Respondents resoundingly indicated that it is very important (96%) to
elect their leader. Similarly, 86% said that elections are Islamic; only 2%
opined that elections are un-Islamic.
• Most respondents are at least somewhat clear about the presidential
election process. However a third do not understand the process at all.
• However, most (79%) understand the process for voting on Election Day
“very well.”
• Most respondents (55%) opined that it is “very important” that their vote is
confidential. And, a majority of respondents (53%) are “very confident”
their vote will be confidential.
20
21. Summary of Key Findings
• Most respondents (77%) indicated some confidence that the
election will be fair and transparent. About a quarter (23%) are “very
confident” and about half (54%) are a “little confident”.
• Most respondents (65%) are familiar with the Independent Elections
Commission (IEC). Of those who are familiar with it, about a quarter
(24%) are “very confident” it will manage the elections effectively and
fairly; 51% have “a little” confidence.
• Almost half of respondents (47%) are familiar with the Electoral
Complaints Commission (ECC). A little over a quarter (28%) are “very
confident” that it will resolve complaints fairly.
Concerns About Violence
• About half of respondents are concerned about violence in their districts
prior to the election and on Election Day.
• Fully 45% are either “very” or “a little” concerned about violence in the
days leading up to the election and 53% are either “very” or “a little”
concerned about violence occurring in their districts on Election Day.
21
22. Summary of Key Findings
• However, only 13% indicated that a threat of violence in their
districts would keep them from voting.
• About a third (35%) of respondents are either “very” or “a little”
concerned about violence occurring after the election. Most (60%) are
not concerned about violence after the election.
22
24. News About the Elections
A majority (60%) have heard “a lot” about the presidential election. Only
8% have heard “nothing”. However, fewer respondents in the southern
region have heard “a lot” about the election than in other regions.
Q1. Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing about the 2014/1393 presidential election?
70
62
60
61
57
60
51
50
40
33
32
32
30
32
30
19
20
11
8
10
7
5
0
Total
North
South
A lot
A little
East
West
Nothing
24
25. News About the Elections
Radio is the most common source of information about the election (47% get “a lot” of
information from it) followed by family members, TV, and friends and neighbors. In contrast,
only 2% indicated they get “a lot” of information about the election from religious leaders.
(Asked only of those who have heard “a lot” or “a little” about the 2014/1393 presidential election in Q1)
Q2. I’m going to read a list of ways some people get information about elections. For each one, please tell me
whether you have heard a lot, a little, or nothing about the election from each item.
100
92
87
90
95
84
80
70
60
50
47
41
40
38
32
30
48
45
42
41
30 32
29 27
22
45
26
20
15 17
20
10
10
2
2
1
5
0
5
1
0
A lot
A little
Nothing
Radio
Family members
Television
Friends & neighbors
Candidate ads
Elders
Religious leaders
Internet
Newpapers
SMS
25
26. News About the Elections
Sources of information about the election vary by region. For example, only 7%
of respondents in the southern region get information from television compared
to 42% in the eastern region.
(Asked only of those who have heard “a lot” or “a little” about the 2014/1393 presidential election in Q1)
Q2. I’m going to read a list of ways some people get information about elections. For each one, please tell me whether you
have heard a lot, a little, or nothing about the election from each item.
Radio
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Television
63
47
100
47
46
39
38
15
39
37
30
45
16
32
20
29
17
20
7
42 38
7
13
20
47
30
23
0
Total
North
A lot
A little
South
Nothing
East
Don't know
A little
43
39
18
47
34
19
70
43
36
21
9
North
A lot
Nothing
East
West
Don't know
60
60
45
50
40
30
50
32
22
2424
23
16
20
Total
South
Tribal elders
36
16
North
A lot
55
4242
Total
West
Friends and family
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
40
53
48
60
17
13
80
80
A little
South
Nothing
East
Don't know
West
3436
28
41
36
23
10
0
Total
North
A lot
A little
South
Nothing
East
West
Don't know
26
27. Most Popular Candidates
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay has a 4-point lead over Doctor Abdullah
Abdullah (29% compared to 25%, respectively). All other candidates are
below 10%. About one in ten likely voters (11%) is undecided.
Candidate
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf
Zalmay Rasool
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
Prefer not to answer
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
Hedayat Amin Arsala
Do not Know/not sure
Total
Q3. Next, if the election for president of
Afghanistan were held today, for whom would
you vote?
%
29
25
8
6
6
5
4
2
2
1
1
*
11
100
*=Less than .5%
27
28. Most Popular Candidates
Respondents who were undecided or preferred not to say who they might vote for
were asked if there is a candidate for whom they might vote. Answers to this
question indicate respondents who “lean” toward voting for a candidate. When
responses to Q3 and Q4 are combined, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay
remains in the lead with 30% followed by Doctor Abdullah Abdullah at 26%.
Candidate
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf
Zalmay Rasool
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
Hedayat Amin Arsala
Do not Know/not sure
Prefer not to answer
Total
Q3. Next, if the election
for president of
Afghanistan were held
today, for whom would
you vote?
%
29
25
8
6
6
5
4
2
1
1
*
11
2
100
[Asked only of those who
answered "don’t know" or
"prefer not to answer" in Q3 and Q4
Combined
Q3] Q4. Is there a
candidate you might vote
for?
%
%
8
30
13
26
4
9
1
6
6
7
1
5
*
4
1
3
0
1
2
1
1
*
46
6
17
2
100
100
*=Less than .5%
28
29. Most Popular Candidates – “Soft” Support
More than a third of respondents indicated they might vote for a different candidate
than the person they selected in the previous questions (3% said “yes” and 32% said
“maybe”) which indicates a level of “soft” support or support that could change.
Among candidates, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay’s support is the most firm
with 70% of the respondents who indicated that they will vote for him and saying
they will not change their minds before the April election.
(Asked only of those who selected a
candidate in Q3 or Q4.) Q5. Do you think you
might change your mind and vote for a
different candidate in April?
Response choices
%
Yes
3
Maybe
32
No
63
Prefer not to answer
2
Total
100
Q5. Do you think you might change your mind and vote for
a different candidate in April?
Prefer
Candidate selected in Q3 or Yes
Maybe
No
not to
answer
Q4
%
%
%
%
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani
Ahmadzay
3
24
70
3
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
5
32
61
2
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
2
29
63
6
Professor Abdulrab Rasool
Sayaf
2
47
51
0
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
4
35
61
0
Zalmay Rasool
2
45
50
3
Abdul Rahim Wardak
1
33
66
0
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
9
51
40
0
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha
Sherzay
2
40
58
0
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
7
53
40
0
Hedayat Amin Arsala
0
32
68
0
29
30. Most Popular Candidates - Gender
Males and females support candidates in similar percentages indicating
no discernable gender gap. Females tend to favor the two frontrunners
(Ahmadzay and Abdullah) slightly more frequently than males.
Gender
Candidate Selected in Q3 or Q4
Male
Female
%
%
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay
29
32
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
25
9
28
8
Zalmay Rasool
7
6
7
6
6
4
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay
5
3
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
3
1
2
1
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
1
*
Hedayat Amin Arsala
*
6
*
7
2
2
100
100
Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf
Abdul Rahim Wardak
Do not Know/not sure
Prefer not to answer
Total
30
31. Most Popular Candidates - Regions
Support for candidates varies by region. Frontrunner Ahmadzay’s
support tends to be located in the northern and eastern regions while,
for example, Karzai’s support is largely in the southern region.
Candidate
North
%
Region
South
%
East
%
West
%
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani
Ahmadzay
31
18
36
17
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
41
15
20
28
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
2
2
1
31
4
9
20
3
Zalmay Rasool
Abdul Rahim Wardak
9
3
*
0
3
3
0
8
5
4
8
8
1
3
2
0
*
18
4
1
1
*
*
1
1
6
3
100
0
5
3
100
*
4
2
100
2
13
1
100
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha
Sherzay
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
Hedayat Amin Arsala
Do not Know/not sure
Prefer not to answer
Total
31
32. Most Popular Candidates – Second Choice
Respondents were asked whom they would vote for president, if they could
not vote for their preferred candidate. Again, Ahmadzay and Abdullah are
neck and neck (21% and 20%, respectively) as the second choice
candidate.
Q6. Let’s say your top choice is no longer available to vote for in the
elections. Who would be your second choice as president among
the remaining candidates?
Candidate
%
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay
21
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
20
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
Zalmay Rasool
9
9
Abdul Rahim Wardak
8
Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf
7
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay
5
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
2
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
1
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
1
Hedayat Amin Arsala
*
Do not Know/not sure
13
Prefer not to answer
Total
4
100
32
33. Voter Preferences – Tribal and Ethnic Affiliations
A majority of respondents (63%) prefer the presidential and vicepresidential candidates be from different tribes or ethnic groups. A third
(34%) say tribal or ethnic affiliation does not matter.
Q7a. Should the presidential and vice-presidential candidates be
from different tribes or ethnic groups, the same tribe or ethnic
group, or does it not matter?
70
63
60
50
40
34
30
20
10
2
1
0
Different tribes or
ethnic groups
Same tribe or ethnic
group
Does not matter
Don't know
33
34. Voter Preferences – Tribal and Ethnic Affiliations
Fully 84% of respondents indicate that they would vote for a candidate
from a different tribe or ethnic group than their own or it would not matter
if the candidate was from a different tribe or ethnic group. Another 15%
said they might vote for a candidate from a different tribe or ethnic group.
Q7b. Would you vote for a candidate for president who is from a tribe
or ethnic group that is different from yours, or would it not matter?
60
57
50
40
27
30
20
16
10
0
0
Yes
Maybe
No
Would not matter
34
35. Voter Preferences – Vote for a Female Candidate
Most respondents (59%) would or might vote for a female candidate for
president. Fully 82% would or might vote for a candidate who asked a
woman to run as vice-president.
70
Q7c. Would you ever vote for a female
candidate for president?
Q7d. If a candidate for president asked a
woman to run as a vice president, would you
vote for that presidential candidate, or not?
59
60
50
42
40
36
30
23
20
17
16
10
4
2
1
0
Yes
Maybe
No
Don't know Prefer not
to answer
Q7c. Vote for a female presidential candidate
Q7d. Vote for a candidate who asked a woman to run
as vice-president
35
36. Voter Preferences – Vote for a Female Candidate
Females are much more likely than males to consider voting for a
female presidential candidate (23% and 68%, respectively) and to vote
for a presidential candidate who asked a female to run as vice-president
(46% and 77%, respectively).
Q7c. Would you ever vote for a
female candidate for president?
Q7d. If a candidate for president asked a
woman to run as a vice president, would you
vote for that presidential candidate, or not?
80
68
70
90
60
50
70
40
30
77
80
48
60
23
24
50
19
20
40
9
10
4 3
1 1
0
Yes
46
Maybe
No
Male
Don't know Prefer not
to answer
Female
29
30
23
15
20
6
10
2
2
0
Yes
Maybe
Male
No
Don't know
Female
36
37. Most Popular Candidates – Who Will Win?
Asked whom they think will win the presidential election regardless
whom they support, a plurality of respondents (26%) said Ahmadzay will
win. However, 3 in 10 (30 percent) are not sure whom will win.
Q8. Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win
the presidential elections scheduled for April 5, 2014?
Candidate
%
Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzay
26
Doctor Abdullah Abdullah
21
Abdul Qayoom Karzai
6
Zalmay Rasool
4
Professor Abdulrab Rasool Sayaf
4
Abdul Rahim Wardak
3
Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzay
2
Engineer Qutbodin Helal
1
Mohammad Dawood Sultan Zoy
1
Mohammad Nadir Nayeem
*
Hedayat Amin Arsala
*
Do not Know/not sure
30
Prefer not to answer
Total
2
100
37
38. Voter Preferences – Most Important Issues for New
President to Address
Security (49%) tops the list of the most important issue the new president must address
followed by economic issues (17%) and education (6%).
Q8a. Next, what is the most important issue the next president of Afghanistan must address?
Security issues
Economic issues
Improve education
Government reform; corruption
Provide basic necessities
Women's issues
Equality; rule of law; human rights; justice
Solve country's problems
Remove/punish/monitor foreigners
Unite AF
Negotiate with Taliban
Improve transportation
Develop mining
Agricultural issues
Pakistan
Islamic principles; sharia law
Health care
Defeat/remove Taliban
Don't Know
49
17
6
6
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
38
39. Voter Preferences – Second Most Important Issue for
New President to Address
Three in ten (30%) of respondents named economic issues as the second most
important issue the new president must address; security is the next most
mentioned issue (22%) followed by education (10%).
Q8b. Next, what is the second most important issue the next president of Afghanistan must address? (open
ended)
Economic issues
Security issues
Improve education
Government reform; corruption
Provide basic necessities
Equality; rule of law; human rights; justice
Unite AF
Women's issues
Solve country's problems
Negotiate with Taliban
Improve transportation
Develop mining
Agricultural issues
Remove/punish/monitor foreigners
Pakistan
Maintain positive relations with other countries
Islamic principles; sharia law
Illegal drugs
Health care
Defeat/remove Taliban
Don't know
30
22
10
7
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
39
40. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities
Majorities of respondents want a presidential candidate to have experience in
international relations (85%) and have a college education (86%). Only 21%
indicate they would like the candidate to be younger than 50 years old,
although for most (63%) it does not matter.
Q9. I’d like to ask you about some traits that a presidential candidate may or may not have. Should a
presidential candidate [INSERT ITEM], or does it not matter?
100
90
86
85
80
70
63
60
50
40
30
21
20
15
10
7
4
10
4
2
1
2
0
Yes
No
Q9a. International relations
Does not matter
Be young (less than age 50)
Don't know
Have a college education
40
41. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities
Majorities of respondents consider it important that a candidate listens to all
sides of an issue before making decisions; provides specific plans to address
AF’s problems; and understand the problems of people like you. Half (50%)
support women having more freedom.
Q10a-f. Next, is it important, not important, or does it not matter if a presidential candidate
[INSERT ITEM]?
Understands the problems of people like you
95
Provides specific plans to address AF's problems
99
Wants good relations with Pakistan
36
43
14
30
Listens to all sides of issues before making decisions
25
87
Supports women having more freedom
10%
Does not matter
20%
30
30%
40%
Don't know
3
2
6 4 3
50
0%
Not important
1
0
46
Wants to keep some international troops in AF beyond
2014
Important
121
50%
60%
18
70%
80%
90%
2
100%
Prefer not to answer
41
42. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities
Women are much more likely than men to indicate that it is important for
a presidential candidate to support women having more freedom (36%
and 69%, respectively). Men and women tended to see eye-to-eye on
other items in this battery of questions.
Q10a. Next, is it important, not important, or does it not matter if a presidential
candidate supports women having more freedom such as working outside of the home.
80
69
70
60
50
40
36
40
30
22
16
20
14
10
2
1
0
Important
Not important
Does not matter
Male
Don't know
Female
42
43. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities
Overall, 40% think it important that candidates should want to keep some international
troops in AF but by region this varies from 19% in the south compared to 51% in the north.
A slight majority (51%) think it important that candidates want good relations with Pakistan.
This opinion is highest in the South (68%) and lowest (40%) in the East.
Q10c. Next, is it important, not important, or
does it not matter if a presidential candidate
wants to keep some international troops in
Afghanistan beyond 2014?
60
80
56
50
44
43
50
25
32
31
28
23
20
25
23
19
20
40
20
10
2
1
Important
North
Not important
South
East
Does not matter
43
40
42
36
34
25
21
25
14
12
3
1
3
4
2 1
10
4
1
2 1
0
2
Total
0
Total
46
30
10
2
62
60
43
40
30
68
70
51
30
Q10d. Next, is it important, not important, or
does it not matter if a presidential candidate
wants good relations with Pakistan?
North
South
East
West
West
Don't know
Important
Not important
Don't know
Does not matter
Prefer not to answer
43
44. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities
A large majority (89%) said that they would not vote for a candidate with a history
corruption. Similarly, 78% indicated that they would not vote for a candidate with history of
human rights violations. Responses to these questions varied by region with, for example,
almost a quarter (23%) of northern respondents indicating that they would either vote for a
candidate with human rights violations or it would not matter
Q11a. Would you vote for a candidate who has a history
of human rights violations, or would it not matter?
Q11c. Would you vote for a candidate who has a history
of corruption or bribery, or would it not matter?
100
100
86
90
80
90
81
80
78
70
91
89
80
70
60
74
70
50
93
90
60
40
50
30
20
10
10
4
15
5 3
8
4 3
3
3
9
8
2
6
40
11
3
3
3 2
30
20
0
Total
North
South
East
West
20
10
Yes
No
Would not matter
Don't know
Prefer not to answer
4
4
21
1
5
1 2
4
1 1
3
3 2 2
1
3 3
0
Total
Yes
No
North
Would not matter
South
Don't know
East
West
Prefer not to answer
44
45. Voter Preferences – Candidate Qualities
A sizable majority (61%) would vote for a candidate who wants to negotiate with
the Taliban, and an even larger majority (71%) would vote for a candidate who
wants positive relations with the U.S..
Q11b. Would you vote for a candidate who wants to
negotiate with the Taliban, or would it not matter?
100
Q11d. Would you vote for a candidate who wants
positive relations with the United States, or would
it not matter?
90
90
84
81
87
80
71
80
66
70
70
64
61
57
60
60
52
50
50
50
40
40
28
30
20
18
28
21
20
21
17
14
6 7
10
1
1
30
16
20
3
1
North
Yes
No
South
Would not matter
East
Don't know
West
18
13
14
10
10
2
0
Total
21
18
3
2
4
11
2
5
0
0
Total
Yes
No
North
Would not matter
South
Don't know
East
West
Prefer not to answer
45
46. Voter Preferences - Endorsements
Candidate endorsements would not prompt most respondents to vote for the endorsed
candidate or it simply would not matter to them. Fully 85% said they would not be swayed by
President Karzai’s endorsement or it would not matter. However, 58 percent said they would
consider voting for a candidate that a family member supports.
Q12a-‐e.
If
[INSERT
ITEM]
supported
a
specific
presiden>al
candidate,
would
you
consider
vo>ng
for
that
candidate
or
who
it
not
maGer
who
[INSERT
ITEM]
supported?
Your family
58
Your friends
21
30
Your Tribal Elders
32
25
Your Mullah
12
President Karzai
0
Yes
26
No
20
47
20
62
14
10
5
71
20
1
0
36
20
7
20
30
Would not matter
40
50
Don't know
6
60
70
80
90
1
2
100
Prefer not to answer
46
47. Importance/Fairness of Elections - Transparency
Most (77%) respondents are at least somewhat confident that the upcoming presidential
election would be fair and transparent. About a quarter (23%) are “very confident” that the
election will be fair and transparent; more than half (54%) mentioned being “a little
confident” in the election’s fairness and transparency.
Q13. Next, are you very confident, a little confident or not confident at all that the elections
scheduled for April 5, 2014 will be fair and transparent?
60
54
50
40
30
23
20
15
8
10
0
Very confident
A little confident
Not confident at all
Don't know
47
48. Importance/Fairness of Elections - IEC
Most respondents (65%) are familiar with the Independent Elections Commission (IEC).
Men are more likely than women to be familiar with the IEC (71% and 56%, respectively).
Of those who are familiar with the IEC, about a quarter (24%) are “very confident” it will
manage the elections effectively and fairly; 51% have “a little” confidence.
(Asked only of those who answered “yes” in Q14a)
Q14b. Are you very confident, a little confident, or
not at all confident that the Independent Election
Commission or IEC will manage the elections
effectively and fairly?
Q14a. Are you familiar with the Independent
Election Commission or IEC?
Don't know
8%
60
51
50
No
27%
40
30
24
21
Yes
65%
20
10
4
0
Very confident
A little confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
48
49. Importance/Fairness of Elections - IEC
About half of respondents (47%) are familiar with the Electoral Complaints
Commission (ECC). Similar to the question about familiarity with the IEC, men
are more familiar with the ECC than women (52% to 40%, respectively). Of those
who are familiar with the ECC, 28% are “very confident” that it will resolve
complaints about the election fairly.
(Asked only of those who answered “yes” in Q15a).
Q15b. Are you very confident, a little confident, or not
at all confident that the Electoral Complaints
Commission or ECC will fairly resolve complaints
regarding the election or electoral process?
Q15a. Are you familiar with the Electoral
Complaints Commission or ECC?
Don't know
8%
Prefer not to
answer
1%
50
45
45
40
Yes
47%
35
30
No
44%
28
25
21
20
15
10
6
5
0
Very confident
A little confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
49
50. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Understanding the Electoral Process
Most respondents are at least somewhat clear about the presidential election
process (36% said they understand the process “very well.”). However a third
do not understand the process at all. Men are more likely than women to
understand the electoral process with 40% of men answering “very well”
compared to 30% of women.
Q16. Overall, do you understand the
presidential election process very well, a little
bit, or not at all?
Male/Female Split
50
40
45
36
33
35
40
29
30
43
40
35
33
30
30
25
25
26
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
2
1
0
Very well
0
Very well
A little bit
Not at all
Don't know
3
A little bit
Male
Not at all
Don't know
Female
50
51. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Understanding the Electoral Process
Most (79%) respondents do understand the process for voting on Election Day
“very well”, although respondents in the southern region were less likely to
understand the voting process than those in other regions.
Q17. Do you understand the process for voting on Election Day very well, a little bit, or not at all?
90
80
85
80
79
70
76
64
60
50
40
28
30
20
18
20
17
14
8
10
3
4
3
1
0
Total
North
South
Very well
A little bit
East
West
Not at all
51
52. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Where to Vote
Most respondents (83%) provided an answer when asked where people in their
areas go to vote. Overall, this suggests that most voters know where to vote. If
they know where to vote then they are more likely to vote.
Q18. Where do people in your area go to vote?
100
90
88
84
83
85
82
78
80
71
70
60
50
40
28
30
20
16
14
Total
Male
20
17
14
12
10
0
Female
Provided an answer
North
Don't know
South
East
West
Prefer not to answer
52
53. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Voting Attitudes
Respondents resoundingly indicated that it is very important (96%) to elect their
leader. Similarly, 86% said that elections are Islamic; only 2% opined that
elections are un-Islamic. Women are more likely than men to indicate that
elections are Islamic (81% and 91%, respectively).
Q19. Do you think it is very important, a
little important, or not important at all that
Afghans elect their leader?
A little important
3%
Not important at
all
1%
Q20. Some people feel that elections are un-Islamic, while others
feel that they are Islamic. What is your opinion on this topic? In
general, are elections Islamic or un-Islamic?
100
90
91
86
81
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
14
9
10
Very important
96%
2
1
3
6
3
2
2
0
Elections are Islamic
Elections are unIslamic
Total
Male
Don't know
Prefer not to answer
Female
53
54. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Electoral Confidentiality
Most respondents (55%) opined that it is “very important” that their vote
is confidential. And, most respondents (53%) are “very confident” their
vote will be confidential.
Q21. No one is supposed to know for whom a person
has voted. Is it very important, a little important, or not
important at all that no one knows for whom a person
has voted?
60
Q22. Are you very confident, a little
confident, or not confident at all that no
one will know for whom you voted?
60
55
53
50
50
40
40
36
30
30
23
18
20
20
10
4
8
10
1
0
Very important
A little important
Not important at
all
Don't know
2
0
Very
confident
A little
confident
Not confident Don't know
at all
Prefer not to
answer
54
55. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Concerns About Violence
Fully 45% of respondents are either “very” or at least “a little” concerned about
violence in the days leading up to the election. Concerns about violence are
highest in the south. Similarly, 53% are either “very” or “a little” concerned about
violence occurring in their districts on Election Day. Again, concerns are highest
in the south.
Q24. What about on Election Day? Are you very
concerned, a little concerned, or not at all
concerned about violence occurring in your district
on Election Day?
Q23. Violence can be used to influence people. Are you
very concerned, a little concerned, or not concerned at
all about violence occurring in your district on the days
leading up to the election?
70
70
60
60
54
55
54
50
50
40
33
30
32 31
35
33
20
30
18
15
10
1
2
0
1
North
South
East
48
46
2627
29
27
32
29
24
18
14
4
17
10
0
Total
46
20
8
7
53
40
28
30
58
60
West
Very concerned
A little concerned
Not at all concerned
Don't know
1
1
3
1
0
0
Total
North
South
East
West
Very concerned
A little concerned
Not at all concerned
Don't know
55
56. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Concerns About Violence
Only 13% of respondents indicated that a threat of violence in their districts
would keep them from voting on Election Day. However, 22% of respondents in
the southern region said a threat of violence would prevent them from voting
compared to only 6% in the western region.
Q25. Would a threat of violence in your district on Election Day keep you from voting on Election Day?
80
74
69
70
64
63
60
46
50
40
30
30
22
20
23
22
19
17
13
14
11
10
6
3
1
2
1
0
0
Total
North
Yes
South
No
Don't know
East
West
Prefer not to answer
56
57. Importance/Fairness of Elections –
Concerns About Violence
A majority of respondents (60%) are not concerned about violence occurring
after the elections. About a third (35%) are. However, 56% of respondents in
the western region indicated they are either “very” or “a little” concerned.
Q26. After the election, some people use violence as revenge if they do not like the election results. Are
you very concerned, a little concerned, or not at all concerned that violence will occur in your district
soon after the election?
80
67
70
60
62
58
60
50
42
40
27
30
26
20
10
25
14
8
24
14
11
5
2
6
3
2
38
6
0
Total
North
Very concerned
South
A little concerned
East
Not at all concerned
West
Don't know
57
58. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Prior Voting
Fully 58% of respondents said they voted in the 2009 presidential election. Of
those who did not vote in 2009, a plurality said they were too young in 2009
(31%) and another 30% indicated that they had no voter registration card.
Q27. Now, I’d like you to think back to the 2009
presidential election. There are many reasons
why people do or do not vote in elections. Did
you vote in the 2009/1388 presidential
elections or did you not vote?
Q28. What was the main reason you did not vote
in the 2009/1388 presidential elections?
Too young
31
No registration card
30
Personal issues/too busy/out of town
11
Security/fear of violence
No
42%
10
Did not want to vote
Yes
58%
5
Prefer not to answer
4
No election/polling place
3
Forbidden by husband/family
2
Other
3
Don't know
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
58
59. Importance/Fairness of Elections – Prior Voting
An almost identical percentage said they voted in the 2010 Parliamentary
election as voted in the 2009 Presidential Elections. This is not an unusual
response given that this is a survey of likely voters.
Q29. Did you vote in the 2010 election for members of Parliament?
Don't know
1%
Yes
41%
No
58%
59
61. Demographics – Gender and Age
Fully 57% of respondents were male. A larger percentage of males are
in the sample because more males than females are registered to vote.
Respondents tended to be younger with 54% under age 30.
Age
Gender
60
54
50
40
Female,
43
Male, 57
30
25
20
13
10
6
2
0
17-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60+
61
62. Demographics - Education
Some 40% of respondents have never attended school. Only 47% have
received any formal schooling (primary/secondary) whatsoever, with just
19% finishing secondary school. Just 1% were educated in a Madrassa.
D5. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Never went to school
40
Finished some primary school
12
7
Finished primary school
Finished some secondary school
9
Finished secondary school
19
6
Finished 2-year college
Finished 4-year college
4
Finished graduate school
1
Finished Madrassa
1
Home schooled
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
62
63. Demographics – Household Monthly Incomes
Fully 28% of respondents have monthly incomes of 10,000 Afghanis or
less; 21% have no income.
• Note: An income of 10,000 Afghanis equals about 200 USD.
Prefer not to answer
5%
Less than 5000
Afghanis
11%
Don't know
8%
5001- 10,000
Afghanis
17%
No income
21%
More than 20000
Afghanis
8%
10001-15000
Afghanis
18%
15001-20000
Afghanis
12%
63
64. Demographics - Occupation
Housewife (does not work outside of the home) is the most common
occupation (30%). A quarter (25%) are unemployed.
D7. What do you do for a living?
Housewife
30
Unemployed
25
Business owner
9
Work for government
8
Farmer
7
NGO worker
5
Teacher
5
Student
5
Other
5
Prefer not to answer
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
64
65. Demographics - Ethnicity
A plurality of respondents (40%) indicated they are Pashtun; 36%
said Tajik. Fully 12 ethnicities are represented in the sample.
Ethnic group
%
Pashtun
40
Tajik
36
Hazara
10
Uzbek
8
Aymaq
2
Pashaye
1
Arab
1
Nuristani
1
Turkmen
1
Baloch
*
Kirgiz
*
Kochis
*
Other
*
65
66. Demographics - Language
Dari is spoken most frequently among respondents
Language
%
Dari
50
Pashto
40
Uzbeki
8
Pashaye
1
Turkmani
1
Balochi
*
Nuristani
*
66
67. For an electronic (soft)
copy of this report plus the
survey methods report and
supporting survey data
please visit:
voteafghanistan.com
67
