Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10

Twin Cities

Boise

Chicago
Rockford

Salt Lake Northern CO Indianapolis
Baltimore
Denver
Reno Suburban MD/DC
Colorado Springs
Sacramento Northern VA/DC
Bay Area St. Geo/Mesquite
Central Valley Las Vegas Triad
Nashville
Prescott Raleigh/Durham
Central Coast Santa Fe
Inland Empire Charlotte
Albuquerque
LA Coastal
Atlanta
Phoenix
Tucson
San Diego DFW

Austin
Houston North Florida (Jacksonville)

San Antonio Tampa Bay Central Florida (Orlando)

Rio Grande Valley Sarasota/Bradenton
Treasure Coast
Naples/Ft. Myers
South Florida (Miami-Ft.
Lauderdale-Palm Beach)

© Copyright Metrostudy 2010

1

NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Overall Consumer Confidence Index-Monthly

120
Dec. 2009 = 52.9
100

80

60

40

20

0
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09
Source: Conference Board


2

NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Annual U.S. Non-Ag Job Growth
5,000,000
12 Months Ending
3,000,000 Nov. 2009: <4,659,000> Jobs

1,000,000

-1,000,000

-3,000,000
Nov. 2009 Unemployment
-5,000,000 Rate = 10%

-7,000,000
Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09
Source: BLS


3

THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET
ANNUAL RATE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING STARTS
Thousands
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800 Nov. 2009 Annual Starts= 482,000
600 (+5.7% from Nov. 2008)
(-74% from Peak in January 2006)
400

200
Nov-89

Nov-90

Nov-91

Nov-92

Nov-93

Nov-94

Nov-95

Nov-96

Nov-97

Nov-98

Nov-99

Nov-00

Nov-01

Nov-02

Nov-03

Nov-04

Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09
Source: Census Bureau


4

TOP 15 STATES RANKED BY SF PERMITS – (Nov ’09)

Rank State SF Annual Permit SF Annual Change
1 Texas 63,222 -20,425
2 Florida 26,574 -16,802
3 North Carolina 24,859 -18,941
4 California 23,305 -11,714
5 Virginia 15,933 -5,350
6 Pennsylvania 13,899 -5,678
7 Georgia 13,673 -14,030
8 South Carolina 13,203 -7,998
9 Washington 12,282 -5,519
10 Arizona 12,049 -7,241
11 Tennessee 11,174 -5,858
12 Louisiana 10,574 -1,515
13 Ohio 10,554 -6,959
14 Indiana 9,521 -3,321
15 New York 9,481 -3,611
Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA 270,303 -134,962

5

Months
MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES
15
14 Nov. 2009 MOS = 7.9 MOS
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Nov-89

Nov-90

Nov-91

Nov-92

Nov-93

Nov-94

Nov-95

Nov-96

Nov-97

Nov-98

Nov-99

Nov-00

Nov-01

Nov-02

Nov-03

Nov-04

Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Source: Census Bureau Nov-09


6

ANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES BY QUARTER
S&P CASE SHILLER and FHFA FIGURES
20.0%
FHFA 3Q09 <3.8%>
15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%
S&P Case Shiller FHFA
-10.0%

-15.0% Case Shiller 3Q09 <8.9>%

-20.0%
3Q94

3Q95

3Q96

3Q97

3Q98

3Q99

3Q00

3Q01

3Q02

3Q03

3Q04

3Q05

3Q06

3Q07

3Q08

SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller & FHFA 3Q09

7

THE TEXAS HOUSING MARKETS
AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES
San Antonio Austin Dallas
Ft. Worth Houston Texas
16

14 3Q09 Austin = -0.6%
12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4
3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09
SOURCE: FHFA


8

JOB GROWTH-MAJOR TEXAS MARKETS
Annual Rate 2007, 2008 & Nov. 2009

120,000
87,000 76,000 2007 2008 Nov-09
70,000

22,500 26,100 24,800 9,900
20,000 4,800

-2,500 -6,200 -4,300
-30,000

-50,700
-80,000
-88,900

-130,000
HOUSTON DALLAS/FT. WORTH SAN ANTONIO AUSTIN

SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission


9

AUSTIN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Non-Ag Job Growth: Annual Totals

50,000 Net Job Losses Nov. ’08 to Nov. ’09 = 4,300
40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000 Total Non-Ag
-20,000
Employment
780,900
-30,000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Nov-
09
Source: Texas Workforce Commission


10

AUSTIN APARTMENT MARKET
Occupancy/Rents
100% $1.25
OCCUPANCY 3Q09
$1.20
RENT RATE Avg. Rent = $.93/SF
Avg. Occ. = 89% $1.15
95%
$1.10
$1.05
90%
$1.00
$0.95
85%
$0.90
$0.85
80% $0.80
$0.75
75% $0.70
3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09
Source: Austin Investor Interests


11

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICS
Annual Closings History
Closings
35,000

32,500 Nov. ‘09 Annual Closings = 20,758
30,000

27,500

25,000

22,500

20,000

17,500

15,000

12,500

10,000
Source: Real Estate Center


12

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET - MLS STATISTICS
Active Listings & Months of Supply
Listings Nov. ’09 Months of
Listings 9,836 Listings Supply
14,000
Months Supply 9
5.7 MOS
8
12,000
7

10,000 6

5
8,000
4

6,000 3

2
4,000
1

2,000 0


13

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET – MLS DATA
Single Family MOS By Price Range-November 2009
MOS Previously Owned & New Construction
30
26.4
Prev. Owned New Const. 25.9

24

18

13.4

12 9.6
8.7
6.8 5.9
6.4 6.0 6.7
4.5 6.1
6

0
<$ 12 5 K $ 12 5 K- $ 17 5 K $ 17 5 K- $ 2 5 0 K $ 2 5 0 K- $ 4 0 0 K $ 4 0 0 K- $ 7 5 0 K >$ 7 5 0 K
Source: ABOR


14

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICS
Average & Median Price Trend
$290,000
Nov. 2008 Avg.
=$236,041
$265,000 (Single Family/TH/Condo)
$240,000 Average Price

$215,000 Median Price

$190,000

$165,000

$140,000
Nov. 2008 Median=
$115,000 $176,300
(Single Family)
$90,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov-
09



15

AUSTIN MLS CLOSED SALES
Distributed by Sales Price
YTD Sept. 2008 vs. YTD Sept. 2009
30%

25%
2008 2009

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
<$100K $100K-$150k $150K-$200K $200K-$300K $300K-$500K +$500K
SOURCE: Austin Board of Realtors


16

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET
ANNUAL STARTS TREND: 2001 to 2009
Detached Housing
18,000
17,000
15,940
16,000
14,638
15,000
14,000
12,190 12,436
13,000
11,225
12,000
10,260 10,450
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,012
8,000
6,490
7,000
6,000
5,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


17

ANNUAL STARTS TREND: 3Q06 to 4Q09
Detached Housing
18,000
16,502
17,000
15,940
16,000
14,540
15,000
14,009
14,000
13,152
12,436
13,000
11,543
12,000
10,399
11,000
10,000 9,315
9,000
8,012
8,000 7,301
6,587 6,511 6,490
7,000
6,000
5,000
3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09


18

ANNUAL STARTS & CLOSINGS
20,000
DETACHED HOUSING
18,000 Annual Closings

16,000 Annual Starts
14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000 6,490 Annual Starts
4,000
7,487 Annual Closings
2,000

0
4Q95 4Q96 4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09


19

2009 ANNUAL STARTS BY SUB-MARKET
Detached Housing
1,400
1,264

1,200

1,000
833
800 734
608
600 536
433
368
400 308 300
203 166
172
200

0 C P / Le a n. R R oc k K y l e / B uda S W A us. P f l ug. G. Town M a nor D . Va l l e H ut t o S E A ust i n Dr . L. Tr a v i s
S pr i ngs


20

Annual Starts by Price Range
The Detached Market
2006 2007 2008 2009
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
<$150 $150- $200- $300- $500- >$750
$200 $300 $500 $750

21

TOTAL NEW HOME INVENTORY TREND
(Under Construction & Finished Vacant Units)
Detached Housing
10,000
9,000 Under. Const. Inv. = 1,420 Units
8,000 Fin. Vac. Inv. = 1,703 Units
Total Inv. = 3,494 Units
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000

1,000
0
4Q89 4Q91 4Q93 4Q95 4Q97 4Q99 4Q01 4Q03 4Q05 4Q07 4Q09


22

Annual Starts/ Vacant Developed Lot Trend
Lot Inventory MOS
30,000
The Detached Market 48
Annual Starts
Vacant Developed Lots
Months of Supply 42
25,000
36

20,000 30

24
15,000 18

12
10,000
6

5,000 0
4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09


23

FORECLOSURE POSTING & SALES TREND
Travis & Williamson Counties
Annual Rate
13,000
12,000
Annual Postings
11,000
10,000
Annual Foreclosure Sales
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Annual Postings + 61% from Jan. ’09 to Jan. ‘10
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000 Annual Sales +24% from Dec. ’08 to Dec. ‘09
0
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-09 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
SOURCE: Real Estate Foreclosures


24

Top 20 MSAs-Highest Rates of Home Appreciation
Annual Change as of 3Q09
Wichita Falls, TX 6.0%
Corpus Christi, 5.5%
San Angelo, TX 5.4%
Hinesville, GA 5.2%
Texarkana, TX 4.7%
Jonesboro, AR 4.5%
Brownsville, TX 4.4%
St. Joseph, MO- 3.7%
Dubuque, IA 3.6%
Midland, TX 3.5%
Tyler, TX 3.4%
Amarillo, TX 3.3%
Wichita, KS 3.3%
Abilene, TX 3.3%
Lawton, OK 3.3%
Sioux City, IA- 3.1%
State College, PA 3.1%
Pittsfield, MA 3.0%
Burlington, NC 3.0%
Elmira, NY 2.9%

SOURCE: FHFA 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%


25

Bottom 20 MSAs-Lowest Rates of Home Appreciation
Annual Change as of 3Q09
El Centro, CA -24.5%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV -22.5%
Miami, FL -20.5%
Bend, OR -19.4%
Merced, CA -18.6%
Reno-Sparks, NV -17.5%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ -16.9%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -16.2%
Port St. Lucie, FL -15.8%
Ft. Lauderdale, FL -15.4%
Visalia-Porterville, CA -14.9%
Ocala, FL -14.9%
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL -14.7%
St. George, UT -14.0%
Modesto, CA -13.9%
Fresno, CA -13.8%
Madera-Chowchilla, CA -13.6%
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA -13.5%
Prescott, AZ -13.4%
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ -13.4%

-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
SOURCE: FHFA


26

STATES WITH HIGHEST SHARE OF NEGATIVE EQUITY AS
OF THIRD QUARTER 2009
Oklahoma 6.0%

TEXAS 11.0%

New Mexico 11.0%

Idaho 20.0%

Ohio 20.0%

Maryland 22.0%

Virginia 24.0%

Georgia 24.0%

California 35.0%

Michigan 37.0%

Florida 45.0%

Arizona 48.0%

Nevada 65.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
SOURCE: First American Core Logic


27

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Houston

Dall as/Ft Wort h

Orl ando

Phoe ni x

Mary land

Aust in

Austin
San Antonio

MD - C

Northern Vi rginia

Charlotte

Cent Cal

Inland Empir e

Rale igh-Durha m

NoVa-C

Chicago

Atl anta

Salt Lake City

So Cal Coast
Annual Starts Comparison

Las Vegas
National Comparison – 3Q09

Tampa

San Francisc o

Jack sonvi lle

Nashvill e

Minneapol is

Denver

28

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Chicago

Orland o

Atlanta

Hou ston

Phoenix

Las Vegas

San Francisco

Dallas/Ft Worth

So Cal Coast

Maryland

Inland Emp ire

Char lotte

Raleigh-Durham

Denver

Salt Lake City

North ern Virginia

Cent C al

Tamp a

Jackso nville

San Anto nio

Minneapo lis

Aust in
Total New Housing Inventory - # of Units

MD - C
Austin

NoVa-C

Nashville

29

0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Orland o

Atlanta

Chicago

Las Vegas

Phoenix

So Cal Coast

Hou ston

Dallas/Ft Worth

San Francisco

Maryland

Char lotte

Raleigh-Durham

Jackso nville

Denver

Inland Emp ire

Tamp a

Cent C al

Minneapo lis

Salt Lake City

North ern Virginia

Nashville

San Anto nio
Total Finished Vacant Inventory - # of Units

Aust in

MD - C
Austin

NoVa-C

30

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Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10