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How to combine climate scenarios with socio economic scenario

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Vestlandsforsking WRNI
Vestlandsforsking WRNI
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Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How to combine climate scenarios with socio-economic scenarios Presentation at the WP2 meeting in Bergen 2-3 October 2008 Carlo Aall (WNRI)
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions 1. Four approaches to assessing possible future societal changes 2. How to combine climate scenarios with socio-economic scenarios
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental General Specific
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between climatic and societal changes and present concrete examples of such links Specific
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between climatic and societal changes and present concrete examples of such links Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific interest groups the links between climatic and societal changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific interest groups the links between climatic and societal changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific (4) Develop a scenario with the interest groups the links use of sector specific between climatic and societal advanced scenario techniques changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific (4) Develop a scenario with the interest groups the links use of sector specific between climatic and societal advanced scenario techniques changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes (qualitative) (quantitative) Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific (4) Develop a scenario with the interest groups the links use of sector specific between climatic and societal advanced scenario techniques changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 1: ”General” and ”conceptual” approach • Develop concepts • Develop illustrative ”graphics” • Identify illustrative examples – which in turn could be derived from the category 2 approach • NOT develop instrumental scenarios
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Climate vulnerability Society Climate adaptation present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society Society Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Climate vulnerability Society Society Climate adaptation Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Climate vulnerability Society Society GHG Climate adaptation Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in nature
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in nature society
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in Changes in nature society institutions
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in Changes in nature society institutions Natural Socio-economic Institutional vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in Changes in nature society institutions Natural Socio-economic Institutional vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability Climate change vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice…
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice… Natural vulnerability e.g. more ”horizontal” rainfall increasing the risk of damage from rotting
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice… Natural vulnerability e.g. more ”horizontal” rainfall increasing the risk of damage from rotting Socio-economic vulnerability e.g. construction of more ”low standard” buildings located in risky locations
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice… Natural Institutional vulnerability vulnerability e.g. more e.g. a weakening of public ”horizontal” rainfall building control increasing the risk of damage from rotting Socio-economic vulnerability e.g. construction of more ”low standard” buildings located in risky locations
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 2: ”Specific” and ”conceptual” approach • Select relevant sectors and identify important stakeholders • Use participatory techniques • Rely on ”local knowledge” • EXAMPLE: Fish farming in Flora
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The process • Invite local stakeholders that represent the whole value chain: production of fodder, production of young fish (hatcheries), fish farming, sales management • Arrange a roundtable discussion • Write a report – Focus of possible consequences; not so much conclusive
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example of findings • Increased temperature may lead to all fish farms moving out of Flora and farther north • Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events may influence negative on the production of young fish • Dependency on air-transport of fish (to e.g. Japan) and long- distance import of fish fodder (e.g. from Chile) increase vulnerability towards rising energy prices
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 3: ”General” and ”instrumental” approach • Two alternative approaches: – Scenario modeling – Indicator-based
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Societal factors (drivers) that influence vulnerability to climate change Population Commercial Physical structure infrastructure Mentality
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Socio-economic scenarios
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Socio-economic scenarios • ”Top-down” data – Population – Commercial development – ”Hard” data – Questions: • Data source? • Time period? • Possible to downscale?
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Socio-economic scenarios • ”Top-down” data • ”Bottom-up” data – Population – Physical infrastructure – Commercial – Mentality development – ”Soft” data – ”Hard” data – Questions: – Questions: • Sources of data? • Data source? • Time period? • Time period? • Possible to downscale?
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Examples of “hard data” from downscaling national socio-economic models
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Examples of “hard data” from downscaling national socio-economic models Hammerfest: population development  2025
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Examples of “hard data” from downscaling national socio-economic models Hammerfest: population development  2025 Hammerfest: commercial structure development  2025
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Alternative approach: indicator based approach • Socio-economic vulnerability • Institutional vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 4: ”Specific” and ”instrumental” approach • Select relevant sectors and identify important stakeholders • Involve additional professional competence in order to supply with sector specific ”hard facts” • Discuss ”hard facts” with the stakeholders • EXAMPLE: Climate change and housing in the municipality of Flora
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The process • Additional professional competence: The Norwegian Building Research Institute (Byggforsk) • Local stakeholders (and experts): Architects, contractors, owners of large buildings, the ”building department” in the municipality of Flora • 1) Technical review, 2) discussions with local stakeholders, 3) presenting a report
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Subjects that were assessed Nature vulnerability Institutional vulnerability – Wind – Public building control – Rainfall combined with – Public planning and wind implementation of plans – Storm tide – Technical knowledge on housing within the public – Avalanche administration – Flooding – Maintenance of public – Frost archives on buildings Socioeconomic vulnerability – Age of buildings – Location of buildings – Type of building
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: assessment of relevant climatic changes An assessment of expected increase in ”vertical rainfall” (wind + precipitation)
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: assessments of relevant societal changes Type of building (private / business) and age (before / after 1984) Old buildings located in wind- and rain- exposed areas
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: pinpointing weak implementation of plans From nicely located buildings in the plan to wind- exposed buildings when built
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: Conclusion • Natural vulnerability: – More ”windy rainfall” • Socioeconomic vulnerability: – More “imported” building types and building contractors (people from former Eastern Europe) – More complex and vulnerable buildings • Institutional vulnerability: – Less emphasis on climatic conditions in modern buildings – Less local competence within building sector – People want to have a nice view!
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: Conclusion • Natural vulnerability: – More ”windy rainfall” • Socioeconomic vulnerability: ”Bad houses” – More “imported” building types a worse and building contractors threat than (people from former Eastern ”bad Europe) weather”? – More complex and vulnerable buildings • Institutional vulnerability: – Less emphasis on climatic conditions in modern buildings – Less local competence within building sector – People want to have a nice view!
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Combining input from climate change and societal change
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A vulnerability matrix
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards • Climate scenarios – “Forecasts” for e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind etc – Assessments of natural vulnerability, e.g. flooding, avalanches etc
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards • Climate scenarios – “Forecasts” for e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind etc – Assessments of natural vulnerability, e.g. flooding, avalanches etc • Socio-economic scenarios – “Forecasts” for population, commercial structure, physical infrastructure and mentality – Assessments regarding socio-economic and institutional vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards • Climate scenarios – “Forecasts” for e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind etc – Assessments of natural vulnerability, e.g. flooding, avalanches etc • Socio-economic scenarios – “Forecasts” for population, commercial structure, physical infrastructure and mentality – Assessments regarding socio-economic and institutional vulnerability • Combined assessments of how climate and socio-economic changes may interact
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability Regional climate models
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of issues Thematic groups
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators Assessment of local climate vulnerability
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators Assessment of local climate vulnerability ”Known” method in municipalitites!
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators Assessment of local climate vulnerability ”Known” method in ”New” method in municipalitites! municipalitites!
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions • Two additional perspectives……..
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Need for large scale changes in local societies The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Need for large scale changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. ”Termination” of Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. ”Termination” of Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Gulfstream Expected climatic changes ”disapears”
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. ”Termination” of Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies e.g. Norway? Gulfstream Expected climatic changes ”disapears”
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Total breakdown of US finance ”Termination” of institutions Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Total breakdown of e.g. USA? US finance ”Termination” of institutions Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation ..Carbon sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation ..end of pipe ..Carbon solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities ..better insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities ..increase ..better robustness insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities Fokus today produce more GHG emissions and/ or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ In many cases antagonistic relations or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ In many cases antagonistic relations or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ In many cases antagonistic relations or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities Potential of possible common ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance drivers: mobility, economic liberalisation, globalisation, New Public Management etc…. Adaptation

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How to combine climate scenarios with socio economic scenario

  • 1. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How to combine climate scenarios with socio-economic scenarios Presentation at the WP2 meeting in Bergen 2-3 October 2008 Carlo Aall (WNRI)
  • 2. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions 1. Four approaches to assessing possible future societal changes 2. How to combine climate scenarios with socio-economic scenarios
  • 3. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental General Specific
  • 4. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between climatic and societal changes and present concrete examples of such links Specific
  • 5. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between climatic and societal changes and present concrete examples of such links Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific interest groups the links between climatic and societal changes
  • 6. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific interest groups the links between climatic and societal changes
  • 7. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific (4) Develop a scenario with the interest groups the links use of sector specific between climatic and societal advanced scenario techniques changes
  • 8. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific (4) Develop a scenario with the interest groups the links use of sector specific between climatic and societal advanced scenario techniques changes
  • 9. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Four approaches to modeling socio-economic changes (qualitative) (quantitative) Conceptual Instrumental (1) General Discuss the links between (3) Develop a ”full-scale” scenario climatic and societal changes covering all sectors, and using and present concrete of advanced numeric scenario examples of such links techniques Specific (2) Discuss with sector-specific (4) Develop a scenario with the interest groups the links use of sector specific between climatic and societal advanced scenario techniques changes
  • 10. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 1: ”General” and ”conceptual” approach • Develop concepts • Develop illustrative ”graphics” • Identify illustrative examples – which in turn could be derived from the category 2 approach • NOT develop instrumental scenarios
  • 11. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society present future
  • 12. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society present future
  • 13. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Climate vulnerability Society Climate adaptation present future
  • 14. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society present future
  • 15. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
  • 16. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Society Society Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
  • 17. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Climate vulnerability Society Society Climate adaptation Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
  • 18. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Climate Climate processes processes I) Climate scenarios Climate vulnerability Society Society GHG Climate adaptation Socio- II) Socioeconomic Socio- economic scenarios economic processes processes present future
  • 19. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability
  • 20. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change
  • 21. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in nature
  • 22. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in nature society
  • 23. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in Changes in nature society institutions
  • 24. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in Changes in nature society institutions Natural Socio-economic Institutional vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability
  • 25. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Three types of climate vulnerability Climate change Changes in Changes in Changes in nature society institutions Natural Socio-economic Institutional vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability Climate change vulnerability
  • 26. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice…
  • 27. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice… Natural vulnerability e.g. more ”horizontal” rainfall increasing the risk of damage from rotting
  • 28. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice… Natural vulnerability e.g. more ”horizontal” rainfall increasing the risk of damage from rotting Socio-economic vulnerability e.g. construction of more ”low standard” buildings located in risky locations
  • 29. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions ….in practice… Natural Institutional vulnerability vulnerability e.g. more e.g. a weakening of public ”horizontal” rainfall building control increasing the risk of damage from rotting Socio-economic vulnerability e.g. construction of more ”low standard” buildings located in risky locations
  • 30. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 2: ”Specific” and ”conceptual” approach • Select relevant sectors and identify important stakeholders • Use participatory techniques • Rely on ”local knowledge” • EXAMPLE: Fish farming in Flora
  • 31. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The process • Invite local stakeholders that represent the whole value chain: production of fodder, production of young fish (hatcheries), fish farming, sales management • Arrange a roundtable discussion • Write a report – Focus of possible consequences; not so much conclusive
  • 32. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example of findings • Increased temperature may lead to all fish farms moving out of Flora and farther north • Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events may influence negative on the production of young fish • Dependency on air-transport of fish (to e.g. Japan) and long- distance import of fish fodder (e.g. from Chile) increase vulnerability towards rising energy prices
  • 33. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 3: ”General” and ”instrumental” approach • Two alternative approaches: – Scenario modeling – Indicator-based
  • 34. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Societal factors (drivers) that influence vulnerability to climate change Population Commercial Physical structure infrastructure Mentality
  • 35. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Socio-economic scenarios
  • 36. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Socio-economic scenarios • ”Top-down” data – Population – Commercial development – ”Hard” data – Questions: • Data source? • Time period? • Possible to downscale?
  • 37. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Socio-economic scenarios • ”Top-down” data • ”Bottom-up” data – Population – Physical infrastructure – Commercial – Mentality development – ”Soft” data – ”Hard” data – Questions: – Questions: • Sources of data? • Data source? • Time period? • Time period? • Possible to downscale?
  • 38. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Examples of “hard data” from downscaling national socio-economic models
  • 39. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Examples of “hard data” from downscaling national socio-economic models Hammerfest: population development  2025
  • 40. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Examples of “hard data” from downscaling national socio-economic models Hammerfest: population development  2025 Hammerfest: commercial structure development  2025
  • 41. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Alternative approach: indicator based approach • Socio-economic vulnerability • Institutional vulnerability
  • 42. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions
  • 43. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions
  • 44. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Category 4: ”Specific” and ”instrumental” approach • Select relevant sectors and identify important stakeholders • Involve additional professional competence in order to supply with sector specific ”hard facts” • Discuss ”hard facts” with the stakeholders • EXAMPLE: Climate change and housing in the municipality of Flora
  • 45. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The process • Additional professional competence: The Norwegian Building Research Institute (Byggforsk) • Local stakeholders (and experts): Architects, contractors, owners of large buildings, the ”building department” in the municipality of Flora • 1) Technical review, 2) discussions with local stakeholders, 3) presenting a report
  • 46. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Subjects that were assessed Nature vulnerability Institutional vulnerability – Wind – Public building control – Rainfall combined with – Public planning and wind implementation of plans – Storm tide – Technical knowledge on housing within the public – Avalanche administration – Flooding – Maintenance of public – Frost archives on buildings Socioeconomic vulnerability – Age of buildings – Location of buildings – Type of building
  • 47. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: assessment of relevant climatic changes An assessment of expected increase in ”vertical rainfall” (wind + precipitation)
  • 48. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: assessments of relevant societal changes Type of building (private / business) and age (before / after 1984) Old buildings located in wind- and rain- exposed areas
  • 49. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: pinpointing weak implementation of plans From nicely located buildings in the plan to wind- exposed buildings when built
  • 50. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: Conclusion • Natural vulnerability: – More ”windy rainfall” • Socioeconomic vulnerability: – More “imported” building types and building contractors (people from former Eastern Europe) – More complex and vulnerable buildings • Institutional vulnerability: – Less emphasis on climatic conditions in modern buildings – Less local competence within building sector – People want to have a nice view!
  • 51. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Example: Conclusion • Natural vulnerability: – More ”windy rainfall” • Socioeconomic vulnerability: ”Bad houses” – More “imported” building types a worse and building contractors threat than (people from former Eastern ”bad Europe) weather”? – More complex and vulnerable buildings • Institutional vulnerability: – Less emphasis on climatic conditions in modern buildings – Less local competence within building sector – People want to have a nice view!
  • 52. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Combining input from climate change and societal change
  • 53. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A vulnerability matrix
  • 54. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions
  • 55. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report
  • 56. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards
  • 57. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards • Climate scenarios – “Forecasts” for e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind etc – Assessments of natural vulnerability, e.g. flooding, avalanches etc
  • 58. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards • Climate scenarios – “Forecasts” for e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind etc – Assessments of natural vulnerability, e.g. flooding, avalanches etc • Socio-economic scenarios – “Forecasts” for population, commercial structure, physical infrastructure and mentality – Assessments regarding socio-economic and institutional vulnerability
  • 59. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions A general outline for a local climate vulnerability report • Experiences from previous climate-related events – e.g. historical data on natural hazards • Climate scenarios – “Forecasts” for e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind etc – Assessments of natural vulnerability, e.g. flooding, avalanches etc • Socio-economic scenarios – “Forecasts” for population, commercial structure, physical infrastructure and mentality – Assessments regarding socio-economic and institutional vulnerability • Combined assessments of how climate and socio-economic changes may interact
  • 60. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability
  • 61. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability Regional climate models
  • 62. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators
  • 63. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality
  • 64. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of issues Thematic groups
  • 65. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups
  • 66. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators
  • 67. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators Assessment of local climate vulnerability
  • 68. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators Assessment of local climate vulnerability ”Known” method in municipalitites!
  • 69. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions Summing up: How to assess local climate vulnerability National socio- Regional climate economic models / models databasis for developing indicators Municipality Choice of Choice of issues parameters/ Choice of parameters indicators Thematic groups Downscaling/ produce Downscaling indicators Assessment of local climate vulnerability ”Known” method in ”New” method in municipalitites! municipalitites!
  • 70. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions • Two additional perspectives……..
  • 71. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Expected climatic changes
  • 72. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 73. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 74. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Need for large scale changes in local societies The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 75. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Expected societal changes Need for large scale changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 76. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. ”Termination” of Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 77. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. ”Termination” of Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Gulfstream Expected climatic changes ”disapears”
  • 78. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. ”Termination” of Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies e.g. Norway? Gulfstream Expected climatic changes ”disapears”
  • 79. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Total breakdown of US finance ”Termination” of institutions Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 80. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions How much adaptation can we take….. Total breakdown of e.g. USA? US finance ”Termination” of institutions Expected societal changes some (or many?) Need for large scale local societies changes in local societies The horizon of adaptation The horizon of adjustment Need for adjustments in local societies Expected climatic changes
  • 81. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation
  • 82. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
  • 83. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation ..Carbon sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
  • 84. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation ..end of pipe ..Carbon solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
  • 85. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Adaptation
  • 86. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities ..better insurance Adaptation
  • 87. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities ..increase ..better robustness insurance Adaptation
  • 88. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive activities activities Reduce Change Reactive activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
  • 89. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
  • 90. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities Fokus today produce more GHG emissions and/ or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
  • 91. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ In many cases antagonistic relations or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
  • 92. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ In many cases antagonistic relations or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance Adaptation
  • 93. Clim-ATIC: WP2 Climate Change - Adapting to The Impacts, by Communities in Northern Peripheral Regions The potential for linking mitigation and adaptation cause effect Mitigation …shift from ..end of pipe ..Carbon car to bus. solutions sequestration Reduce Change Reactive Drivers that activities activities produce more GHG emissions and/ In many cases antagonistic relations or a more vulnerable Reduce Change Reactive society activities activities Potential of possible common ..change location ..increase ..better of activities robustness insurance drivers: mobility, economic liberalisation, globalisation, New Public Management etc…. Adaptation

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