SDPI Political Barometer: A Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan

1. POLITICAL BAROMETER
A Study of Socio-Political
Preferences of People of
Pakistan

2. Background
• First civilian government completing it’s term
• Chief Election Commissioner appointed through
parliamentary consensus for the first time in the
country’s history
• Caretaker government to be decided in
consultation instead of being chosen by the
president

3. The Political Barometer Survey
• Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators
• Conducted across broad sections of the society
• Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52
districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform,
governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts
and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy
• Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead
of the traditional provincial demarcation

4. Sampling
• Demographic sample based on the population
census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
• Stratified Sampling
▫ Ethno-linguistic
▫ Gender
▫ Urban/Rural
▫ Age
▫ Income
▫ Educational qualification

5. Questionnaire, interviews, and
challenges
• Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to
minimize biases
• Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh
• Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to
respond to a few questions
• The data was verified through randomly contacting
reluctant respondants
• Respondents’ understanding of technical terms like MFN

6. Issues
Electoral
Process
Civil
Military Corruption
Relations
Inter-
Foreign
provincial
Policy
relations
Political Internal
Economy Security

7. Electoral Process
Most transparent party while contesting
elections
Others PPP
25% 24%
PMLN
PTI 24%
27%

8. Least transparent party while contesting
elections
Others
24%
PPP
41%
MQM
19%
PMLN
16%

9. Decision to vote despite doubts about the
electoral process
Maybe
26%
Yes
53%
No
21%

10. Corruption
Responses on the most corrupt party
Others
18%
MQM
16% PPP
56%
PMLN
10%

11. Responses on political party that will
end/reduce corruption, if in power
Others
18% PPP
23%
PTI PMLN
34% 25%

12. Decision to vote: will it be based on levels
of corruption within a political party?
Maybe
24%
Yes
No 60%
16%

13. Foreign Policy
Preferences for Pakistan to have strong
strategic alliance with the US
Maybe Yes
32% 33%
No
35%

14. Are drone attacks infringement on
Pakistan's sovereignty?
Maybe
19%
No
11%
Yes
70%

15. Does Pakistan require foreign aid?
Maybe
26%
Yes
37%
No
37%

16. Relations with neighbors
Preference to vote for a party that...
Opposes
peaceful ties
with India
17%
Maintains a
neutral stance
38%
Pledges peaceful
ties with India
28%
A party's stance
on relations with
India will not
factor in my
decision making
17%

17. Should Pakistan promote a government
favourable to its own interests in
Afghanistan?
Maybe Yes
32% 33%
No
35%

18. Party that can best handle Pakistan's
foreign affairs
Others
20% PPP
30%
PTI
21%
PMLN
29%

19. Internal Security
Government's engagement with Taliban
should focus on...
Other
1%
Negotiation Negotiation
and military 36%
action
39%
Military
action
24%

20. Party that can best counter religious
violence
PPP
Others 24%
30%
PMLN
PTI 26%
20%

21. Party that can best counter sectarian
violence
PPP
22%
Others
32%
PMLN
24%
PTI
22%

22. Political Economy
Economic issues facing Pakistan
Unemploym
Others ent
23% 21%
Foreign debt
Energy
burden
shortage
12%
19%
Inflation Currency
12% devaluation
13%

23. Pressing issues based on education
levels
Higher Levels of Education Lower Levels of Education
• Extremism • Inflation
• Political instability • Gender
• Interprovincial discrimination
problems • Food shortages

24. Sectors needing increase in govt.
expenditure
12%
10%
9% 9% 9%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
7% 7%

25. Sectors needing reduction in govt.
expenditure
10% 10%
9% 9%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
6%

26. Most effective party to address Pakistan's
economic problems
Others
22% PPP
27%
PTI
25%
PMLN
26%

27. Provincial Matters
Pakistan's interprovincial relations are...
No opinion
36% Disharmonio
us
42%
Harmonious
22%

28. Support for creation of new provinces
Maybe
26%
Yes
36%
No
38%

29. Power: equitable
distribution between all
provinces?
Maybe Yes
19% 12%
Water: equitable distribution
No between all provinces?
69%
Maybe Yes
20% 17%
No
63%

30. Is food distribution across provinces fair?
Maybe Yes
24% 21%
No
55%

31. Party that will be most effective in
addressing provincial problems
Others PPP
25% 26%
PTI
23% PMLN
26%

32. Civil-military relations
Most powerful institution in Pakistan
11%
10% 10%
9% 9% 9% 9%
8% 8% 8% 8%
1%

33. Women
What should be Government policy on
women contesting elections?
Remain
neutral Ban it
15% 19%
Promote it
66%

34. What should be Government’s Stance on
women's purdah outside their homes?
Ban it
11%
Remain
neutral
36%
Promote it
53%

35. What should be Government policy on
women working alongside men in
workplaces?
Remain
Ban them
neutral
26%
26%
Actively
promote
them
48%

36. Preference in education should be for...
Girls Neither
Boys 6% 1%
5%
Both
88%

37. Government's policy on co-education
should be...
Remain
neutral Ban it
25% 29%
Actively
promote it
46%

38. Should women have the right to divorce?
Maybe
21%
Yes
39%
No
40%

39. Opinions on domestic violence
Sometimes No opinion
justified, som 5%
etimes
unjustified
16%
Acceptable
2%
Unacceptable
77%

40. Opinions on honour killings
No opinion
7%
Acceptable
Sometimes 11%
justified, som
etimes
unjustified
19%
Unacceptable
63%

41. Lifestyle and cultural issues influencing
voter’s preference
Its policy on
women
contesting
elections
Others 15%
33%
Its policy on
coeducation
14%
Its policy on
purdah
Its policy on
14%
performing
arts Its policy on
13% women
working
alongside men
11%

42. Minorities
Should non-Muslims have rights equal to
the rights of Muslims in Pakistan?
Maybe
15%
No
13%
Yes
72%

43. Should non-Muslims have freedom to
practice their religion in Pakistan?
Maybe
10%
No
8%
Yes
82%

44. Should there be a separate voters list for
minorities in Pakistan?
Maybe
28% Yes
34%
No
38%

45. Opinions on the fairness and justness of
blasphemy laws in Pakistan
Maybe
23%
Yes
38%
No
39%

46. Voting trends
Party support within each age bracket*
PPP PMLN PTI Others
18%
26% 27% 25%
8%
23% 19% 18%
46%
22% 28%
24%
27% 32% 28% 28%
18-35 36-50 51-70 70+
*Does not include respondents who selected no party

47. Party support across different ethnicities
PPP PML-N PTI ANP BNP-Mengal
44%
11%
55%
46% 44% 43% 47%
34%
Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Punjabi Pakhtun Baloch

48. Voting trends vis-à-vis voting history
• Vote bank for PML-N  Stagnant
• Vote bank for PPP  Declined
• Vote bank for PTI  Stronger urban base

49. Parties' supporters by monthly family
income
PPP PMLN PTI MQM JI PMLQ
Above Rs. 100,000 1% 3% 6% 9% 5% 3%
Rs. 45,000-100,000 2% 5% 10% 16% 8% 13%
Rs. 10,000-45,000 53% 55% 59% 50% 57% 41%
Rs. 10,000 or less 44% 37% 26% 25% 30% 44%

50. • PPP
▫ Roughly one-third of the respondents earning
below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP
▫ Reinforces the pro-poor image of the party
▫ Support from those earning over Rs. 30,000
dropped to 10.8%
• PML-N
▫ Support appears similar across all income groups
• PTI
▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to
vote for the party

51. • MQM
▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to
vote for the party
▫ Only 4% of those earning between Rs. 100,000
and 250,000 expressed intention to vote for the
party
▫ Below 100K
• Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as
income level rises
• PTI eroding PPP votebank

52. The 5 Scenarios

53. Scenario 1
• IF:
▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and its current
allies, ANP, MQM, and PML-Q
▫ Anti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML-
N, JUI, JI, minus PTI
• THEN:
▫ PPP and alliance may capture 38.1% of the vote
▫ Anti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may secure 29.5%
▫ Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance may
give a tougher time to PPP

54. Scenario 2
• IF:
▫ PPP partners with current allies – ANP and PML-Q
▫ MQM opts for the anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not to
be part of either
• THEN:
▫ PPP and allies secure 33.9% of the votes
▫ Opposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votes
▫ Weaker government against a stronger opposition
• Option 1:
▫ PML-N led govt.: PPP and PTI form opposition
• Option 2:
▫ PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form opposition

55. Scenario 3
• IF:
▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and current allies –
ANP, MQM, and PML-Q
▫ Opposing alliance between PML-N and PTI
• THEN:
▫ PML-N and PTI jointly sweep through, capturing
45.0% of the votes  relatively stable govt. at the
centre
▫ Anti-PPP parties may also join in

56. Scenario 4
• IF:
▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and PTI
▫ PML-N led strong opposing alliance
• THEN:
▫ PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes  stable
govt. at the centre

57. Scenario 5
• IF:
▫ PPP-led coalition with current allies
▫ PTI and JI partner for an alliance
▫ PML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-PPP
parties
• THEN:
▫ PPP and allies secure 38.1% of the votes
▫ PTI and JI alliance secures 23.9%
▫ PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%

58. What is expected…
• Scenarios 3 and 4 unlikely
• Elections unlikely to be dominated by a single
political party
• PPP may have to continue with its current alliance
• An emerging PTI
• Likelihood of a strong opposition high
• Electorate divided over ‘crucial’ issues

59. Thank you
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