CKNP Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment

1. CKNP
Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment
Report
Dr. Vaqar Ahmed
Sustainable Development Policy Institute
1

2. CKNP Region: Population & Livelihoods
Populations; Gilgit (0.8
10,000 square Distinctive
million), Skardu
kilometers and biggest biodiversity, unique
(214,848), Ghanchi
national park of local culture and
(88,366), and Hunza
Pakistan wilderness
(87,000)
Unique ecosystem
Economic activities
including highest
relate to
glacier peeks such as
agriculture, tourism
Baltoro, Panmah, Biafo,
and mining
Hispar glaciers
2

3. Need for this Study
• The ecosystem of the CKNP region is highly vulnerable to
climate change in particular to rise in temperature which
is directly and indirectly affecting the communities,
culture, economy, livestock, pattern of agriculture and
biodiversity of that area (IPCC 2007, Campbell 2004).
• Ecosystem  Human well-being (Reid et al. 2005).
3
Conservation of ecosystem from climate change

4. Key Areas of Study
• Highlights the impacts of climate change on the
communities of CKNP region.
• Identify vulnerable communities and regions that need
policy focus for conservation of biodiversity and local
ecosystems.
• Possible Identification of vulnerabilities and link with
economic growth in the region
4

5. Methodology
Regional Growth Collective
Review of
& Climate Stakeholder
Literature
Modeling Observations
Primary Data Secondary Data Key Informant
Collection Collection Interviews
5

6. Data Sources
• Primary data
– Household survey conducted in Gilgit, Hunza, Skardu, Ghanche
in April 2011 (sample size 300 households)
– Stakeholder’s interviews: AKCSP, EV-K2-CNR, MGPO, PARC,
PMD, WWF and CKNP Directorate
• Secondary data by PMD
– For Gilgit: temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity,
sunshine hours, and relative humidity
– For Hunza and Skardu data provided was on wind speed, wind
direction, and relative humidity
• Secondary data by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
– Production and Consumption data
• Government of Gilgit-Baltistan: Institutional Review 6

7. Existing Literature
• Khan, B., Ali, F. Understanding Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change
On Gilgit-Baltistan. WWF, UNDP, OCHA
• Salerno et al., 2009. Integrated case study of a selected valley in
the Central Karakoram National Park. The Bagrot Valley. HKKH
Partnership Project. EV-K2-CNR. 81-103
• Shah, A., et al. 2009. Land Cover Mapping of the Central
Karakoram National Park.WWF, Pakistan
• Mayer, C., et al. 2006. Glaciological Characteristics of the Ablation
Zone of Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan. International
Glaciological Society

8. Existing Literature (Contd..)
• Mihalcea, C., et al. 2006. Ice Ablation and Meteorological
Conditions on the Debris-Covered Area of Baltoro Glacier,
Karakoram, Pakistan. International Glaciological Society
• CESVI., Daconto, G. 2007. Exploring the Future: Strategic Analysis
of Future Scenarios for Central Karakorum National Park. CESVI.
• Belò, M., et al. 2008. The Recent Evolution of Liligo Glacier,
Karakoram, Pakistan, and Its Present Quiescent Phase.
International Glaciological Society.
Three of these studies were on glaciers, two were on climate
change, and the rest were generally on CKNP

9. Gaps in Existing Literature
• Update and further research, advocacy and outreach required for
CKNP region
• There is a need of integrated study for the CKNP region that tries
to explore issues and remedies through a social, economic and
environmental appraisal
• Missing link with sectoral economic growth
• Link the various facets of climate change impacts with the
resource availability and capacity to deal with the challenges.

10. Climatic Trends in Skardu
Minimum Temperature 1979 Vs. 2009 Maximum Temperature 1979 Vs. 2009
20 35
30
15
1979 25
10 20
15 1979
5 2009
10
2009
0 5
Average 1979- Average 1979-09
0
-5 09
April
October
June
May
November
March
July
January
February
August
September
December
-10
Precipitation in 1979 Vs. 2009 Snowfall Record 2004-2011
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60 1979
20
40 2009
10
20 Average 1979-09
0
0
2005 Nov
2004 Dec
2006 Dec
2010 Dec
2006 Feb
2005 Feb
2008 Feb
2011 Feb
2007 Mar
2009 Mar
2004 Jan
2009 Jan
2010 Jan
April
June
October
November
May
July
January
March
February
August
September
December

11. Climatic Trends in Gilgit
Maximum Temperatures 1979 Vs. 2009 Minimum Temperature 1979 Vs. 2009
20
40
35
30 15
25
20 10
1979 1979
15
10 2009 5 2009
5 Average 1979-09 Average 1979-09
0 0
June
April
October
May
March
July
January
February
August
September
November
December
February
April
June
May
January
March
July
August
October
September
November
December
-5
Precipitation in 1979 Vs. 2009
140
120
100
80
60 1979
40 2009
20 Average 1979-09
0
April
June
October
November
May
July
January
March
February
August
September
December

12. Economic Growth Projections
Scenario A • growth in agribusiness
• growth in agribusiness and
Scenario B tourism
• growth in agribusiness, tourism
Scenario C and mining

13. Projected Rise in Average Maximum
Temperatures for G-B 2010-30
Projected Growth (Real GDP)
Rise in Average Maximum Temperatures 2010-30
scenario for Gilgit Baltistan
25.0
24.9
9
8 24.8
7
Temparature oC
24.7
GDP Percent (%)
6
5 24.6
4 24.5
Scenario-A (Agribusiness)
Scenario A
3
Scenario-B (Agribusiness + 24.4
2 Scenario B
Tourism)
1 Scenario-C (Agribusiness + 24.3 Scenario C
Tourism+Mining)
0
24.2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

14. Challenges with Household-level Survey
• Advocacy before research
• The problem was that majority of population in CKNP
was not being educated above secondary school,
explanation of these concepts was sometimes made
difficult
• Most vulnerable resources in CKNP:
– Glaciers
– Forests
– Pastures
– Biodiversity

15. Social, Environmental and Economic
Impacts Because of Climate Change
• Climatic Conditions (becoming warmer region, increased
in rainfall pattern, snow pattern changed)
• Land Use Pattern (increased due to urbanization,
agriculture pattern has changed, cash crops)
• Flora of CKNP (lose of plant species, lessen fruit
production)
• Domestic animals (GLOF causing epidemic diseases)
• Wildlife (endangered species, human interferences,
deforestation)

16. Social, Environmental and Economic
Impacts Because of Climate Change
• Drinking Water (increase in water availability and rain
fed areas facing shortages, occurrence of water born
diseases)
• Forest Cover (loss in forest cover due to urbanization and
used as a source of energy)
• Natural disasters (frequency has increased)

17. Institutional Capacity in Context of CKNP
• This report assesses the capacity of the organizations that are
directly or indirectly, involved in research or implementation
projects on the climate change in the CKNP region.
• Many organizations supporting common agenda:
Planning Commission Mountain and Glacier
Pakistan Agriculture Research Protection Organization
Council(PARC) (MGPO)
Karakoram International Agha Khan Rural Support
University (KIU) Programme (AKRSP)
Northern Areas World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
Forests, Wildlife and Parks Social, Economic and
Department (NAFWPD) Environmental Development
Global Change Institute Study (SEED) project
Centre (GCISC) Ev-K2-CNR

18. Institutional Capacity Assessment
Parameters
The parameters used to assess the capacity of the
aforesaid organizations:
• Institutional Setup
• Qualified/Trained Manpower
• Database Management
• Availability of GIS or Geographic Information
• Allied Equipment (Hardware/Software)
• Past projects on Climate Change
• Ongoing projects on Climate Change
• Budget Allocations for Climate Change Projects
• Specific Achievements in the related discipline

19. Institutions: Policy Threats to Climate
G-B Government Policies
• Investment Opportunities
– Hydro-power
– Mineral Development
• Mega Projects
– KKH, Daimer-Bhasha Dam, Bunji Power Project, Satpara
Dam
• PM’s directives on public works

20. Policies: Production Threats to Climate
• G-B Economic Report
suggests: Private sector led
growth in agribusiness,
minerals, tourism; Ensuring
adequate maintenance of
existing infrastructure
assets (especially in
irrigation, energy and
transport)
• Chinese $100b investment
in XinJiang over next 5 years

21. Formulating Appropriate Adaptation
Strategies – for Implementation
• Environmental appraisal of public sector
development programs in the region – role of
G-B government
• Regulate (environmental) private sectors entry
– Free trade agreements with China (and India-
MFN)
• Planning economic growth in compliance with
environmental quality and social equity – role
of federal government
• Capacity and will to undertake reform – role of
civil society

22. Way Forward
• Focus of socio-economic impact should go beyond
poverty (e.g. food security)
– Coordination needed between G-B’s agriculture,
environment and water department’s initiatives. All still in
project-mode.
• Less time and intensity of winter  taking stock of
changing consumption/demand patterns
• Baseline needed on pattern changes (crops,
animals migrating etc.)
• How Chinese growth will impact glaciers & park
region? [beyond climate  brain drain]

23. Thank You
Thank You
www.sdpi.org
vaqar@sdpi.org