Future Energy Scenario of Nigeria till 2020

1. Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria: Development of Future Energy
Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria
Thesis Submitted in the Master of Science Programme
Environmental and Resource Management
By Ubong S. Simon (Mat’l No.: 2411604)
Supervisors
Professor Dr.-Ing. G. Lappus
Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus
Chair of Control Engineering
Dr.-Ing. Jörg Becker
Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus
Center of Human Ecology
15.01.2009

2. Contents
€ Introduction and Methodology
€ Objectives and Scope of the
Study
€ Energy supply and demand of
Ghana and Nigeria
€ West Africa Gas Pipeline Project
€ Energy supply plan for Nigeria
€ Implications
€ Conclusion
€ References
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3. Introduction Methodology
Energy Resources in Based on:
Ghana and Nigeria € The Economic and
€Fossil fuels population growth rates
€Hydro
€ Energy data of 2007
€Wood
Electricity
€ Establishment of energy
Financial and
demand scenarios till 2020
political issues € Development of energy supply
plans using scenarios (low,
base, and high)
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4. Objectives and Scope of the Study
Objectives of the study
€ Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)
€ Contribution of non-hydro renewables in TPES of
Nigeria
€ Environmental costs
Scope of the study
€ Energy potential of Nigeria
€ Nuclear energy
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5. Energy Supply and Demand of Ghana and Nigeria
Energy Supply in TPES of Ghana in % (2003)
Ghana
32 Fire wood
•Energy resources 9 9 Petroleum
59 Electricity
•TPES
•Electricity
generated from: Electricity consumption by
68% hydro, and sector in % (2005)
32% thermal
37 Industry
•End-use energy
14 14 Household
distribution 49 Commercial
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6. Energy Supply and Demand of Ghana and Nigeria
Energy Supply in
Nigeria
•Energy resources
•TPES (103.785
Total Primary Energy
Mtoe)
Supply in % (2005)
Hydro
13,9
Gas
7,5 91,8 77,9
0,7 Oil
Wood
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7. Energy Supply and Demand of Ghana and Nigeria
Electricity Electricity Supply in % (2005)
Installed electricity
capacity (2006)
63 Hydro
•6000 MW
22 22 Gas
Available capacity Oil
15
•3600 MW
Access to electricity
Petroleum
End-use Hydro Gas Products Wood Coal Total
Total end-use
energy Cooking/Lighting 0 3.2 9.3 87.5 0 100
Electricity 15 63 22 0 0 100
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8. West Africa Gas Pipeline Project
West Africa Gas
Pipeline company
(WAGPCo)
•Owned by participating
companies
•675 Km of gas pipeline
•Initial capacity of 170
MMSCF/day of gas
•85% for power
generation
•Estimated cost of about
US$480 million
•2006
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9. Energy Supply Plan for Nigeria
Projected Total Primary Energy Supply of Nigeria
Determinants of Future 250000
Energy 200000
TPES (Ktoe)
•Population and economic 150000
growth 100000
*TPES Low (3.5 %)
*TPES Base (5.0%)
(144.7 M in 2006, and 201.6 M in 50000
*TPES High (6.3 %)
2020) 0
•Technological change 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
•Resource base and environment
Future Energy Demand for PROJECTED FUTURE ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Nigeria (2008-2020)
•TPES of 2007 (106.379 Mtoe) 25000
using 3 economic growth 20000
scenarios (3.5%, 5%, and 6.3%) 15000
MW
•166.375, 200.593, and 235.390 Low (3.5 %)
10000
Mtoe in 2020 Base (5.0%)
5000
Electricity High (6.3 %)
0
•18,856 MW in 2020 for the 5%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
scenario
YEAR
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10. Energy Supply Plan for Nigeria
Future Energy Year TPES
(Mtoe)
Coal Nat.
Gas
Hydro Oil Nclear N.
Ren
Wood
Supply for Nigeria .
2008 111.697 - 9 1.2 14.1 - - 75.7
€TPES 2009 117.282 - 10.5 1.7 14.3 - - 73.5
Using 5% base scenario 2010 123.146 0.5 12 2.2 14.5 - 0.2 70.6
% share of :
2015 157.170 3 19.5 4.7 15.5 0.5 1.2 55.6
•Natural gas
•Coal 2016 165.028 3.5 21 5.2 15.7 1 1.4 52.2
•Nuclear
2017 173.280 4 22.5 5.7 15.9 1.5 1.6 48.8
•Wood
•Oil 2018 181.944 4.5 24 6.2 16.1 2 1.8 45.4
•New Renewable
2019 191.041 5 25 6.7 16.3 2.5 2 42
•Hydro
2020 200.593 5.5 27 7.2 16.5 3 2.2 38.6
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11. Energy Supply Plan for Nigeria
Future Energy
Supply for Nigeria
€Electricity
Using 5% base scenario
10,500 MW in 2008, and
18,856 MW in 2020
New renewables
•Solar energy
•Wind, etc
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12. Implications
€ Investment and financing
€ Technology
€ Cost of supplying energy
€ International trade
€ Environmental impact
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13. Conclusion
€ Enormous energy resources
€ Fossil fuels
€ West Africa Gas Pipeline Project
€ Non-hydro renewable
€ Economic affordability
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14. References
€ AKINBAMI, J.F.K (2001): Renewable Energy Resources and
Technologies in Nigeria: Present Situation, Future Prospects and Policy
Framework in “Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change”.
Kluwer. Netherlands. 6: 156-160
€ EIA/IEA (2007): International Energy Outlook 2007. Energy
Information Administration. Washington D. C. DOE/EIA-0484 (2007).
pp. 39-45
€ KRUGER, P. (2006): Alternative Energy Resources. The Quest for
Sustainable Energy. John Wiley. New Jersey. pp. 45-46
€ NAKICENOVIC, N., A. Grübler, and A. McDonald (1998): Global
Energy Perspectives. Cambridge. UK. pp. 97-136
€ OECD/IEA (2003): Energy to 2050. Scenarios for a Sustainable Future.
OECD. Paris. pp. 14-27
€ SAMBO, A. S. (2005): Renewable Energy for Rural Development: The
Nigeria Perspective. ISESCO. Nigeria. pp. 12-17
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