Public Lecture Presentation Slides (6.11.2013): Robert Dujarric: Understanding the US "pivot" to Asia
1. Rotating to Asia?
ICAS Seminar
Tokyo, 11 June 2013
Robert Dujarric
Director, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies
Temple University, Japan Campus, Tokyo
robertdujarric@gmail.com
www.tuj.ac.jp/icas
1Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan
http://hidayaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/earth-rotation.png 9 June 2013
2. US wars East Asia
• 1850s-1860s: Threats vs. Japan.
• 1898: Philippines invaded.
• 1900: Beijing occupied (with allies)
• 1941-45: Pacific War.
• 1945-1949: Chinese Civil War.
• 1945-1989: Cold War.
• 1950-1953+: Korean War.
• 1954-1975: Vietnam War.
• 1989(?)-present: semi-Cold War with China.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 2
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_inwdIe1giWk/RwEzOBzMOlI/AAAAAAAAD10/M4nxdWIIdi8/s320/Filipino-American+war+1899.jpg 9 June 2013
http://www.losalamoshistory.org/images/hiroshima.jpg 9 June 2013 Hiroshima
3. Is the Pivot new?
• US and Asia before the Pivot:
– Big military presence since 1945 (and before).
– Pre-Pivot upgrades with Japan, Australia, SE Asia, India.
– Focus on China threat since 1990s.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 3
http://www.thepeacefulsea.com/pics/great-white.jpg 9 June 2013 Great White Fleet visits Japan
4. Constraints on the Pivot:
Global Balkans on Fire
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 4
See Notes for image source
5. Short sample of Global Balkans crises
• Internal: Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Turkey…
• Religious: theocrats/secularists, Shia/Suni…
• Ethnic: Kurd/Arab, Arab/Jew, Turkish/Kurd...
• International: Israel/Palestine, Iran/Arab
States, Iran/Israel, India/Pakistan…
• Ongoing war: Afghanistan.
• Lots of oil/gas.
• Past/present/future wars.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 5
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2010/8/4/1280932648978/Saudi-Arabian-oil-field-006.jpg 9 June 2013
6. Meaning of Pivot
• Deterring/planning war with China.
• Potential for (very) big war(s).
• East Asia vital to US global role, US won’t leave.
• Signals US effort to contain China.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 6
http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/animals081911/a25_RTR2PEZ0.jpg 9 June 2013 panda
http://i67.servimg.com/u/f67/11/37/47/81/09021710.jpg 9 June 2013 prison guard
Hinweis der Redaktion
http://hidayaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/earth-rotation.png 9 June 2013
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_inwdIe1giWk/RwEzOBzMOlI/AAAAAAAAD10/M4nxdWIIdi8/s320/Filipino-American+war+1899.jpg 9 June 2013http://www.losalamoshistory.org/images/hiroshima.jpg 9 June 2013 Hiroshima
http://www.thepeacefulsea.com/pics/great-white.jpg 9 June 2013 Great White Fleet visits Japan
Map from http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OUrLYJV_zc0/SSomzmoM4EI/AAAAAAAAAEM/-8TbjIYluwY/s400/global_balkans.jpg 3 June 2013. Term coined by Z. Brzezinski. http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/39936000/gif/_39936447_pakistan_missile_map416.gif 9 June 2013 – missiles capabilitieshttp://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/redline.jpg?w=620 9 June 2013 Netanyahu UN http://www.awesomestories.com/images/user/107b7d5d54.gif 9 June 2013 oil maphttp://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65996000/jpg/_65996636_29dd9870-253a-4259-8fa8-3309f5332bc0.jpg explosion 9 June 2013
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2010/8/4/1280932648978/Saudi-Arabian-oil-field-006.jpg 9 June 2013
http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/animals081911/a25_RTR2PEZ0.jpg 9 June 2013 pandahttp://i67.servimg.com/u/f67/11/37/47/81/09021710.jpg 9 June 2013 prison guard