Japan’s politics will likely enter the New Years in a highly enervated state. Effort to sell the Official Secrets Act floundered, requiring humiliating negotiations with the opposition ending in a dictatorial denouement to screams of protest. The Supreme Court declared the map of electoral districts crafted to defeat constitutional challenge unfair -- guaranteeing continued strife over the issue. Meanwhile, another set of cases challenging the constitutionality of the House of Councillors election wend their way to the Supreme Court.
Relations with China and South Korea are at their lowest ebb in memory, with China pursuing what seems an inexorable escalation toward open conflict. Should the Prime Minister make good on hints in the direction of a visit to Yasukuni, the publics of South Korea and China will erupt. As for a revival of the economy, median incomes need to rise, meaning the corporate sector has to be more adventurous and generous. For international investors to continue to have faith in Abenomics, they must see meaningful Third Arrow structural reforms. With the Administration’s recent all-consuming focus on security, the economic program seems to have been relegated to the back burner.
The Abe Administration has nevertheless had a remarkable run of good fortune and smart decisions. It has reason to feel proud of itself and its leaders still exude a stunning sense of confidence.
What are the Abe Cabinet’s and ruling party’s plans for 2014? Will they have a have the political momentum and maintain the internal cohesion necessary to achieve them in a meaningful way?
Public lecture slide presentation (1.9.2014) Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo one year on: what have we learned?
1. Abe Shinzo One Year On: What Have We Learned?
Michael Cucek
Research Associate, MIT Center of International Studies
Adjunct Fellow, TUJ - ICAS
2. “Abe and the LDP: A New Era of Stability?”
( 28 February 2013 )
3. 90
%
NHK Cabinet Support Ratings
Obuchi
80
Mori
70
66
64
66
64
65
Koizumi
62
59
60
57
57
60
58
Abe 1
50
50
Fukuda
40
Aso
30
Hatoyama
Kan
20
Noda
10
Abe 2
Number of months post-inaguration
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
4. NHK Party Support Ratings
50
%
LDP
45
DPJ
40
35
JRP
30
New Komeito
25
Your Party
20
Life
15
Communist
10
Socialist
5
Don't know/Cannot
say
2012
2013
12月
11月
10月
9月
8月
7月
6月
5月
4月
3月
2月
1月
12月
0
5. “A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong
( 28 February 2013 )
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International Incident
• Internal Dissension
• Policy Overreach
7. Yen vs. Dollar vs. Euro vs. Dollar
Abe Shinzo elected
president of the LDP
Image courtesy: Tsuchiya Atsushi
8. Foot In Mouth Disease
May 2013
JRP Co-leader Hashimoto Toru says
“comfort women” were necessary
for calming hopped up soldiers and
suggests that U.S. personnel on
Okinawa become regular patrons of
Okinawan sexuals services
establishments
July 2013
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance
Minister Aso Taro muses to a
revisionist audience about a
supposed quiet demise of the liberal
Weimar Constitution and wonders
“Is there not something we could
learn from the experience”?
Image courtesy: Tokyo Shimbun
9. The Immaculate Deflection
Tokuda Takeshi
LDP, Kagoshima District #2
Inose Naoki
Governor, Tokyo Metropolitan District
Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun
Image courtesy: Sankei Biz
10. International Incident
23 November 23, 2013
China ADIZ announcement
Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun
1 January 2014
Chinese balloonist attempts
landing on Senkakus, ditches.
JCG, China Coast Guard and
Taiwanese authorities
cooperate to save and
repatriate him
Image courtesy: The New York Times
11. “A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong
( 28 February 2013 )
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International Incident
• Internal Dissension
• Policy Overreach
12. “A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Right
( 28 February 2013 )
• A Moribund DPJ
• A By-passed JRP
• Proper policy mix
• The Third Way
13. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
14. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
15. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
16. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
17. Oops, I Did It Again
April 23, 2013
Abe stumbles through Maruyama Katsuya’s questions regarding
implications of “escape from the postwar regime” and the
“misaken policies” clause in the Maruyama Statement
Screen capture courtesy: House of Councillors Television
18. Oops, I Did It Again…Again
Heisei Emperor and Empress
First Official Sovereignty Day Ceremony
April 28, 2013
19. Oops, I Did It Again…Again…Again
Prime Minister Abe Shinzo wearing jersey # 96
Ceremony Bestowing People’s Honor Awards on Nagashima Shigeo and Matsui Hideki
6 May 2013
20. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
21. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
22. “What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
24. House of Representatives – The Parties
Socialist
2
Independents
14
Your Party
9
People's Life
7
JRP
53
Communist
8
Yui
7
DPJ
56
LDP
293
Number of seats needed for
supermajority = 320
New Komeito
31
25. House of Councillors – The Parties
New
Renaissance
3
Socialist
3
Independents
4
JRP
9
Your Party
12
People's Life
2
Communist
11
Yui
6
DPJ
58
LDP
114
Number of seats needed for
majority = 122
New Komeito
20
26. House of Councillors – The Ruling Coalition
New
Renaissance
3
Socialist
3
Independents
4
JRP
9
Your Party
12
The Ruling
LDP-NK
“Hawks and Doves”
Coalition
People's Life
2
Communist
11
Yui
6
DPJ
58
LDP
114
134 seats
Number of seats needed for
majority = 122
New Komeito
20
27. House of Councillors – The New Ruling Coalition?
New
Renaissance
3
Socialist
3
Independents
4
JRP
9
Your Party
12
The New Ruling
LDP-JRP-Your Party
“Hawks, Hawks, Hawks”
Coalition?
People's Life
2
Communist
11
Yui
6
DPJ
58
LDP
114
135 seats
Number of seats needed for
majority = 122
New Komeito
20
28. House of Representatives – The Ruling Coalition
Socialist
2
Independents
14
Your Party
9
People's Life
7
Current Ruling
LDP-NK
“Hawks and Doves”
Coalition
JRP
53
Communist
8
Yui
7
DPJ
56
324 seats
LDP
293
Number of seats needed for
supermajority = 320
New Komeito
31
29. House of Representatives – The New Ruling Coalition?
Socialist
2
Independents
14
Your Party
9
People's Life
7
Future Ruling
LDP-JRP-Your Party
“Hawks, Hawks, Hawks”
Coalition?
JRP
53
Communist
8
Yui
7
DPJ
56
357 seats
LDP
293
Number of seats needed for
supermajority = 320
New Komeito
31
32. Thanks.
Special thanks to Robert Dujarric and the Institute of Contemporary Asia Studies, Temple University Japan.
Michael Thomas Cucek
http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/
shisakublog@gmail.com