Global Trends 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013

10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013
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10 Trends to Watch for 2013

1. Social everything: New generations and their digital world stepping forward
2. Redefining value: The consumer is winning the fight to own the new consumer
3. Distributed everything: Mobility in production and consumption
4. The next “industrial” revolution: Robots and smart machines reshaping work
5. The new space race: Pushing the frontiers of technology once again?
6. Geopolitical wars: The fight to control the future
7. Resource wars escalating: From a world of abundance to shortage
8. Business stepping up: From profit to purpose
9. Information is power: The security challenge
10. Who needs banks anyway? Reshaping the financial system


Social technologies are now a central part of
everyday life and work. The social generations are
reshaping firms from the inside, helping
companies to build broader, more agile networks
to create and deliver value to customers. Mobility
and connectedness will be at the heart of the
future business environment: Relationships,
communications and marketing are moving from a
focus on one-to-one, to many-to-many
relationships.

1. SOCIAL EVERYTHING: NEW GENERATIONS AND THEIR
DIGITAL WORLD STEPPING FORWARD


Social technologies are moving from being solely
consumer interaction platforms towards corporate life

ADOPTION OF SOCIAL TECHNOLOGIES
CONSUMER VERSUS COMPANY PENETRATION, GLOBAL, 2012

Users Employees

Social networks 84% Social networks 50%

Video sharing* 81% Video sharing* 38%

Blogs 57% Blogs 41%

Wikis** 36% Wikis** 25%

Microblogging*** 23% Microblogging*** 23%

Average 56% Average 35%

•As of October 2011.
** Classified as directories.
*** Includes microblogging sitesTwitter, Tumblr, Weibo, Plurk, and Posterous Spaces.
Source: McKinsey Global Insitute - The social economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies , July 2012


As businesses and consumers become more networked, the
focus is shifting from one-to-one to many-to-many
relationships


The notion of value is being redefined for the
21st century. Consumers have choice. They
want personalization, and to participate in value
creation, shifting the mindset to “made with
me.” Value will also be about “shared with me,”
as the ownerless economy expands, driven
particularly by younger generations who value
experiences they can share over possessions –
ones that also deliver benefits for society.

2. REDEFINING VALUE: THE CONSUMER IS WINNING THE FIGHT TO
OWN THE NEW CONSUMER


Individualism, customization and uniqueness are the key

CONSUMER ADVERTISING PREFERENCES (U.S. STUDY)

60% 59%
Smartphone users Globally 70% of customers
Feature phone users are willing to provide their
bank with more
information if this leads to
greater personalization or
17% 18% 16% better service.
14%
10% 8%
(Source: Ernst &Young – Global Consumer
Banking Survey 2012

Personalized Promotions Promotions Promotions
offers based on based on based on
timing lifestyle location
(Source: Upstream)

Consumers want personalized, relevant content and
experience from brands and information providers

A new ownerless economy is emerging

Why own when you can Why buy when
rent and share? you can swap?

The copyright on this image is
owned by author David
Hawgood and is licensed for
reuse under the Creative
Commons Attribution-
ShareAlike 2.0 license.

Zipcar, the biggest international car-share scheme, has 700,000 members and more than 9,000
vehicles. Buzzcar, a French company set up by the Zipcar founder, has 605,000 members sharing
9,000 cars. (Source: The Economist – Seeing the back of the car.)


Mobility is entering a new stage, where not only
consumption occurs anywhere, anytime but also the
tools and resources to create and capture value are
more broadly distributed. Work has been becoming
more distributed for years. Smart machines now tap the
global brain. Small-scale manufacturing, including 3D
printing, will reshape production. Renewable
technologies are distributing energy production, while
mass teaching platforms are revolutionizing education.
Ask what can’t be distributed, not what can.

3. DISTRIBUTED EVERYTHING: MOBILITY IN PRODUCTION
AND CONSUMPTION


New technologies are bringing “production” power into
the hands of the consumer: 3D-printing is taking off…

Just opened:
Shapeways - a 25,000-square-foot 3D-printing
“Factory of the Future,” Long Island City
• U.S. Customers will be able to create and print out newly
designed products within a matter of days at the facility.
• When fully up and running the factory will be largest
consumer-facing 3D printing manufacturing facility in the world.
• It will house 30 to 50 high definition, industrial-sized 3D
Photo: Author Kyle Pearce (www.diygenius.com) printers. Each is capable of producing more than 100 products
via Flickr; licensed for reuse under the Creative
Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license. on a daily basis, and three to five million products on annual
basis.
• The factory will support Shapeways’ community of nearly
200,000 users.
(Source: Smart Planet )


…and we are increasingly creating our own healthcare
system – personalized, of course

• DIY health checks where you want them: By August
2012 there were over 13,000 iPhone health apps
available for consumers, including Skin Scan which
monitors the development of moles over time and
Lifelens which can diagnose malaria with a drop of
blood.

• Being your own doctor by networking: Medical sites
are exploding, linking patients to the best treatments
and to other patients with the same conditions, e.g.
PatientsLikeMe has almost 154,000 users who post their
experiences with medications for more than 1000
conditions.


Smart machines and robots will redefine society, by
taking on any job that can be reduced to repetitive steps.
Robots are now being deployed as receptionists, banking
assistants and even prison guards, while technology
allows amateurs to do what professionals once did. The
upside: Addressing issues such as caring for ageing
populations. The downside: Huge job losses. Yet the next
wave of deployment of smart machines will also create
new kinds of jobs.
The challenge will be to ensure a workforce that is ready
and skilled for them.

4. THE NEXT “INDUSTRIAL” REVOLUTION: ROBOTS AND SMART
MACHINES RESHAPING WORK


Perhaps our future job landscape look like this…
INDUSTRY JOBS GOING AWAY (examples) JOBS BEING CREATED (examples)
Power industry All types of power generation/coal plants will Manufacturing power generation units the size of air
begin to close down. conditioning units will go into full production.
Many railroad and transportation workers will Installation crews will begin to work around the clock.
no longer be needed. People for the recycling of the national grid which has
Utility company engineers/Line repairmen been taken down. Micro-grid operations requiring a
new breed of engineers, managers, and regulators.
Automobile Taxi, limo, bus, truck drivers Delivery dispatchers; traffic monitoring systems
transportation Gas stations, parking lots, traffic cops (require some people); automated traffic designers,
Fewer doctors and nurses will be needed. architects, and engineers; driverless “ride experience”
Delivery drivers (food, mail, package etc.) people; driverless operating system engineers;
emergency crews.
Education Teachers, trainers, professors Coaches; course designers; learning camps
3D printers If we can print our own things: Manufacturers, 3D printer design, engineering, and manufacturing; 3D
clothing/shoe retailers will quickly go away. printer repairmen will be in big demand; product
Construction material, e.g. the lumber, rock, designers, stylists, and engineers for 3D printers, 3D
drywall, shingle, concrete, and various other printer ‘Ink’ sellers.
construction industries will go away.
Bots Bots will replace fishermen, miners, farmers, Robot designers, engineers, repairmen, dispatchers.
human inspectors. Therapists, trainers, fashion designers.
Warrior drones will replace soldiers.
Source: Thomas Frey, Innovation Editor, The Futurist


However the digital world still needs human creativity,
emotional engagement and sophistication of thinking
which, despite huge efforts, artificial brains are unlikely to
offer in the near future!


Scientific advances from national space programs have
had a significant impact on how we live and work,
from advanced materials to global
telecommunications. Now, commercial space travel
and exploration is a reality and a new space race is
hotting up particularly between the US, China and
Europe. New advances will surely result, as will
questions over the ownership of space “assets,” and
whether advances will be shared for public benefit.

5. THE NEW SPACE RACE: PUSHING THE FRONTIERS OF
TECHNOLOGY ONCE AGAIN?


A new industry – space tourism – is seeing the light of day

• Virgin Galactic has already signed up well over
500 people willing to pay US$200,000 each to fly
into space in 2013 on the SpaceShipTwos
suborbital flights.

• XTAR space plane that will take a pilot and one
passenger/co-pilot up nearly 60 km for about
half the price of a Virgin Galactic flight.

• The Zero G Corporation offers weightless
experiences on flights while it is possible to take
cosmonaut training at Star City near Moscow.
Source: Virgin Galactic/Mark Greenberg; licensed under the Creative
Commons (Source: The Futurist – The New Age of Space Business)
Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license


While space offers exciting opportunities, questions
include how international treaties on the use and control
of space will develop, and whether advances from space
research will be shared?

THE U.S RUSSIA
CHINA
EUROPE INDIA

ADVENTURE CAPITALISTS

COMMERCIAL CAPITALISTS


The BRICS and Beyond (other rapidly growing
economies) will be where the fight to control future
economic growth and social development will take
place. It’s a multipolar market landscape, based on
dramatically different economic, social and political
systems. Politicians, along with companies, are still
trying to find and control their place in the new
world order, even as trust in governments falls,
nationalism rises, and power shifts towards the
people. The potential for radical political shifts at
home and between nations is rising.

6. GEOPOLITICAL WARS: THE FIGHT TO CONTROL THE FUTURE


Economic power is shifting from West and North to South
and East

SHARE OF GLOBAL GDP
(MEASURED BY EACH COUNTRY’S GDP, ADJUSTED FOR PURCHASING POWER)

35%

30% EMERGING MARKET POWER

25%
To reach a financial deal in
2010, the IMF was forced to
20% increase the emerging
economies’ voting share by
15%
around 6%, with Europe
European Union
10%
losing around 4%.
Developing Asia, including China and India
Now emerging markets are
5% United States demanding an even greater
share of power.
0%
1980 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: IMF


At the same time, global is giving way to local, as
protectionism increases and countries seek to boost flagging
economies
WHICH COUNTRIES HAVE INFLICTED
MOST HARM SINCE NOVEMBER 2008?
Rank Ranked by # of (almost certainly) “I'm calling on those businesses
discriminatory measures imposed that haven't brought jobs back to
take this opportunity to get the
1 EU27 (302)
American people back to work.“
2 Russian Federation (169) President Obama, 2012
3 Argentina (141)
4 India (74)
5 UK (67)
6 Germany (64)
7 France (61)
8 China (60)
9 Italy (56)
10 Brazil (54)
Source: Débâcle: The 11th GTA Report on Protectionism
Notes: There is no single metric to evaluate harm. Different policy measures affect different numbers of products,
economic sectors, and trading partners. GTA reports four measures of harm. * The results for Germany aggregate the (many) measures taken by
the central government in Berlin and the (fewer) measures taken by the European Commission on behalf of all of the EU member states. This
approach was applied consistently to each EU member state. At the request of some users, Table 1.1 reports information on both individual EU
member states and the total amount of measures taken by all the member states plus the European Commission (listed as EU27).


As the world’s population moves towards 9 billion
by 2050, resources are under pressure,
exacerbated by climate change. By 2030 we will
demand twice as many resources as the planet
can supply – risking social unrest and conflicts as
people and nations compete for ever scarcer
resources. Scarcity is already driving resource
price volatility, and cross-border investments.
New technologies and rethinking consumption
will be critical in future – with businesses rather
than governments likely to be leading the way.

7. RESOURCE WARS ESCALATING: FROM A WORLD OF
ABUNDANCE TO SHORTAGE


Natural resources are under pressure

IS THE POPULATION ON EARTH
MORE WATER IS NEEDED
MORE ENERGY IS NEEDED
MORE FOOD IS NEEDED


Addressing the challenges: Do we fight over what is left,
reduce consumption, or invent new resources?

IN THE NEWS NOVEMBER 7, 2012

“Scientists believe they are getting closer to
creating an artificial meat product, it may not be
a steak initially, hamburger or ground beef are
more likely as they are easier to create. The
development of 3D printing technologies is
aiding development efforts. Much like a laser
printer mixes the primary colors to create a
multitude of colors; different cell types can be
loaded and “printed” to create an end product
more closely resembling the taste and texture
of real meat.”
Source: Innovation Management)


Many businesses are stepping up to a new role,
often with partners, to tackle societal and
economic challenges. In many areas, corporations
are seeking to build legitimacy – and the license to
operate – in the eyes of demanding consumers,
employees and stakeholders who care about the
impact and motivations of companies with whom
they associate. But it’s also good business as
companies realize mutual benefits with society.
Look for more businesses redefining their corporate
purpose as they step up to this new role.

8. BUSINESS STEPPING UP: FROM PROFIT TO PURPOSE


Increasingly businesses do not only want to be the best
in the world but also to do what is best for the world

There is a growing community of
more than 600 Certified B Corps
from 15 countries and 60 industries
working together towards the goal
of redefining success in business.
Patagonia, Etsy, and Ben & Jerry’s
(now owned by Unilever), have all
obtained B Corp certification.

B Corp certification is to sustainable business what LEED
certification is to green building or Fair Trade certification is
to coffee (Source: Urban Times).


Trust, values and collaboration are at the heart of
moving from profit to purpose

“The Pothole Brigade”

Where: South Africa
Who: Insurance company Direct Dial
What: A road maintenance initiative that has repaired over
50,000 potholes in and around Johannesburg, as drivers reported them.

Cutting ties with meat producer
What: In 2012 an undercover video taped at a slaughterhouse in
California showed horrible treatment of cows.
Action taken: McDonald’s (and other companies) severed ties with
the meat producer.
Why: McDonald’s has worked with CI for years to develop
environmentally and socially responsible food-sourcing guidelines.
(Sources: JWT Anxiety Index and ABC News)


Cyberspace is the new frontline for security.
Knowledge and information is a source of
competitive advantage, for organizations, nations
and individuals. But it’s a growing challenge to retain
control as mobility and the democratization of
everything (commerce, politics, societies) increases –
along with cybercrime and cyber war. Look for a
rising tide of litigation, policies and regulation.
Digital freedom or a “big brother” society?

9. INFORMATION IS POWER: THE SECURITY CHALLENGE


Are we prepared at all for the new reality in cyber
space? Global experts…

Believe that an arms race is taking place in cyber
space 57%

Believe that cyber-security is as important as
border security 45%

Identify damage or disruption to critical
infrastructure as the greatest single threat posed
by cyber-attacks with wide economic 43%
consequences

Believe cyber-security is more important than
missile defense 36%

Source: Security and defense think-tank SDA - Cyber-security: The vexed question of global rules


Will proliferation of cyber laws, meant to protect people,
stifle free expression and speech?

In the Philippines a controversial cyber crime law has been suspended after a
public outcry. It was initially put in place to protect against Internet crimes like
hacking, identity theft, spamming, and online child pornography.

In January 2012 a public outcry swept the Internet and shook the power structure
of Washington, D.C. aiming to stop PIPA (Protect IP Act) and SOPA (Stop Online
Piracy Act).

According to Freedom House recent revisions to the United Arab Emirates’ cyber
crime law will not only restrict internet freedom but are in violation of citizens’
rights to freedom of expression.

(Sources: Global Post and Freedom House).


The financial system is broken. Regulators want
change, businesses want new means of financing
and consumers want alternatives. The “banks” of
the future will include state-owned entities, and
firms that simply don’t use cash: Think bartering and
community currencies. Digital wallets and mobile
banking are opening the door for telcos and
software players, while trust is the entry point for
retailers and crowdfunding communities. In an
increasingly crowded and cashless financial system,
banks may no longer be key players.

10. WHO NEEDS BANKS ANYWAY? RESHAPING THE FINANCIAL
SYSTEM


Bartering is seeing new life as a medium of exchange

More than 400,000 companies
worldwide used bartering to earn an
estimated US$12 billion on unwanted or
underused assets in 2011.

Source: International Reciprocal Trade Association


Crowdfunding is a growing industry controlled by the
masses with the potential to disrupt established financial systems

Though not having the advantage of being “too big to fail” it comes
with a set of challenges that policy makers cannot afford to ignore.


How will these trends impact your
organization?

Are you ready?


www.globaltrends.com
This presentation is adapted from the GT Briefing 10 Key Trends to Watch in 2013 and The
Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future by Tracey Keys and Thomas
Malnight. For an additional brief summary you can also see The Economist.

Electronic copies of the briefing and The Global Trends Report 2013 are available on
www.globaltrends.com, and printed copies of The Global Trends Report 2013 can be found
on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites.

Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next
monthly briefing (they are free)!

About the Authors
Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. Thomas Malnight is a professor of
strategy and general management at the International Institute for Management Development
(IMD), in Lausanne, Switzerland.


Global Trends 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2013

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