1. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
W
R
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E E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
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Bullions,
T
Base metals,
25 NOV – 29 NOV 2013
Energy…

2. MAJOR EVENTS
India's gems and jewellery trade has called for restoration of credit facility (SBLC -Gold
loan) for jewellery manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers in order to ensure growth
in exports. The present stipulation that twenty percent of the imported gold has to be
exported could also act as a restraint on import of gold, according to All India Gems
and Jewellery Trade Federation.
Gold smuggling has increased sharply across the country on import duty hike and
restrictions on import. This will ruin the economy while many entrepreneurs who had
spent money to set up jewellery manufacturing facility are in dire straits that will
result in economic loss and unemployment.
The absence of sufficient customs bonded ware houses in the country is also making it
difficult for manufacturers to get gold, resulting high premiums have rendered
artisans jobless despite the wedding season which provides peak business for the
trade. Jewellery business has reported sharp fall in sales of coins and bars in the
festival season of 2013.
Crude oil futures slipped lower during early European trading hours on Friday, but
remained within close ranged of a three-week high following the release of positive
U.S. economic reports on Thursday, while talks with Iran continued. On the New York
Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at
USD95.18 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.28%. The January contract
settled up 1.69% at USD95.44 a barrel on Thursday. Oil futures were likely to find
support at USD93.47 a barrel, Thursday's low and resistance at USD96.64 a barrel, the
high from November 1. Oil prices found support on Thursday after preliminary data
showed that U.S. manufacturing activity improved to an eight-month high of 54.3 in
November from a reading of 51.8 in October. A separate report showed that the
number of people filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 21,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 323,000, beating expectations for a decline of 9,000. However,
data also showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region expanded at
the slowest pace in six months in November. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange,
Brent oil futures for January delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD109.79 a barrel, with
the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD14.61 a barrel.
Copper futures inched higher on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S.
economic data due later in the session to gauge the strength of the economy and the
need for further stimulus. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.170 a pound during
European morning trade, up 0.35%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between
USD3.143 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.171 a pound. The
December contract settled 0.06% higher on Wednesday to end at USD3.159 a pound.
U.S. was release data on producer price inflation, as well as the weekly report on initial
jobless claims and data manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed later in the day.
Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if
they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus. Minutes
from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting published Wednesday triggered fresh
concerns that the central bank could begin to slow its bond-purchasing program as
soon as December. According to the minutes, policymakers said they could start
scaling back the USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming
months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.
India Jewellery
trade calls for
restoration of
credit facility to
rescue industry,
boost export.
Crude oil futures
slip lower, but
remain near 3week highs.
Copper futures
edge higher
before U.S.
jobless claims
data.

3. ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
DESCRIPTION
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
Nov 25 8:30pm
Pending Home Sales m/m
2.2%
-5.6%
Nov 26 7:00pm
Building Permits
0.94M
7:00pm
Housing Starts
0.92M
Sep Data
Building Permits
0.94M
0.93M
Housing Starts
0.91M
0.89M
7:30pm
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
13.0%
12.8%
7:30pm
HPI m/m
0.5%
0.3%
8:30pm
CB Consumer Confidence
72.2
71.2
Richmond Manufacturing Index
3
1
Nov 27 7:00pm
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
0.5%
-0.2%
7:00pm
Unemployment Claims
331K
323K
Durable Goods Orders m/m
-1.5%
3.8%
Chicago PMI
60.6
65.9
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
73.1
72.0
Sep Data
8:30pm
7:00pm
8:15pm
8:25pm
8:25pm
8:30pm
9:00pm
10:30pm
Nov 28 All Day
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
CB Leading Index m/m
3.1%
0.1%
0.7%
Crude Oil Inventories
0.4M
Natural Gas Storage
-45B
Bank Holiday

4. GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed
sideways to bearish movement due to
comex weakness and closed around
the upper band of triangle pattern. If it
able to break 30500 then breakout of
triangle pattern on higher side is
expected and it may find resistance
around 31150. On other hand if it
maintains on lower level then 29550
will act as major support.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 29500 for the targets of 2885028400 with stop loss of 30500.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
29550
28750
28000
30500
31165
32000
SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed bearish
movement, took reversal from trendline
acting as resistance, broke major
support of 45950 and closed below it.
Now, if this bear trend continues then it
may find support around 42850 below
which it may drag towards next support
of 40500. Closing above 45950 may
show
some
correction towards
resistance level of 47000-47700.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell on highs for target
of 43000, with stop loss of 46850.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
44240
42680
40660
45850
47560
49160

5. CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on its daily chart broke 61.8%
retracement but unable to sustain
below it and showed correction
towards its resistance level of 6110.
Now, if it able to break resistance of
6110 then it may find next resistance
around 50% retracement i.e. 6225. On
lower level 5900 is act as support for it
below which next support is seen
around 5760.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
on highs for the targets of 5750-5600 with
stop loss of 6650.
PIVOT TABLE
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
5840
5650
5450
6065
6310
6510
COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper moved in downward
channel pattern found support near
lower band and closed above its
resistance of 440. Now, if it sustain
above 440 then it may find resistance
around upper band i.e. 455 closing
above it indicates breakout of channel
pattern and find strong resistance
around 460. Below 435 again it may
drag towards lower band around 425.
PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 447, with stop loss of 435 for the
target of 459.
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
436.70
426.85
417.40
450.35
460.15
471.50

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