an antidote to global warming alarmism

1. GLOBAL WARMING
FACTS AND FICTION

2. AL GORE'S SCIENCE
FICTION

3. WHY WE ARE HERE
Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth ,
provides most people with their knowledge
of global warming . We will look at some of
its more egregious errors and
misrepresentations , review the basic
science of global warming and its climatic
and economic implications and the nature of
the alleged consensus on these issues

4. WHY AM I HERE ?
● Julian Simon The State of Humanity
● Bjorn Lomborg The Skeptical Environmentalist
● The “accepted wisdom” challenged
● Vituperation and ad hominem attacks
● Sounds like the Global Warming phenomenon
● Did my own research
● Developed a point of view
● Presented it a number of times for U3A
● Merv Simmons asked me to run this programme !

5. WHY ARE YOU HERE ?
● Discuss and agree
●
●
● Discuss and disagree
●
●
● Refuse to discuss and abuse

7. HOUSE RULES
● Evidence not emotion
● Courtesy not rudeness
● Listening as well as talking ( NB
Tony !)
● Discussion not argument
● Mutual respect
● Humour !

8. WHO AM I ?
● 1962 Maths Degree London University
● 1962-65 Reactor Physicist - Power
Generation
● 1965-68 Statistical Engineer - Power
Generation
● 1968-77 Manager Operational Research
- Automotive Industry
● 1977-2003 Director - Strategic HR
Consulting
● 2003- Retired and busier than ever !

9. SESSION ONE OBJECTIVES
To review some of the basic facts
underlying global warming and its
implications to provide us with a
common framework of understanding
for future sessions

10. SOME QUOTES
● “We must be alert to the danger that
public policy could become the captive
of a scientific technological elite”
President Eisenhower 1961
● “Convictions are greater enemies of
truth than lies”
Friedrich Nietzsche 1844-1900

11. SOME QUOTES
● “The human understanding when it has
once adopted an opinion draws all things
else to support and agree with it . And
though there be a greater number and
weight of instances to be found on the other
side , yet these it either neglects or
despises , or else by some distinction sets
aside and rejects , in order that by this great
and pernicious predetermination the
authority of its former conclusion may
remain inviolable”
Sir Francis Bacon 1561- 1626

12. SOME QUOTES
● “Today the evidence of an ecological
Kristallnacht is as clear as the sound of
glass shattering in Berlin”
Al Gore 1992
● “Humanity is sitting on a ticking time
bomb . We have just ten years to avert a
catastrophe which will send our planet into
epic disruption involving extreme weather ,
floods , drought , epidemics and killer heat
waves”
Al Gore 2006

21. CO2 AND TEMPERATURE
SOME BASIC FACTS

48. GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE
● Solar radiation powers the climate system
● The balance can be changed in three ways by ;
● Changing the incoming solar radiation by earth
orbital changes or changes in solar emissions
● Changing the fraction that is reflected “albedo”
by changes in cloud cover , particulates and
vegetation
● Changing the long wave radiation back to space
by greenhouse gas concentrations
● All incorporating various forcing components
and reinforced/diminished by feedback loops

54. THE INVECTIVE
● “This noise won't stop until some of these
sceptics are dead”
● “We should have war crimes trials for these
bastards – some sort of climate
Nuremberg”
● “Climate change denial now looks as stupid
and unacceptable as holocaust denial”
● “Every time someone dies from floods in
Bangladesh an airline executive should be
dragged out of his office and drowned”

55. THE INVECTIVE
● “This is not a battle between civilisations
but a stand off between the whole of society
on the one hand and a fairly small and
particularly nasty bunch of murderers and
criminals on the other” UK Foreign
Secretary 2006

56. CONVENIENT UNTRUTHS

66. An Inconvenient Truth was a masterly
film which since 2006 has shaped the
perceptions of Global Warming and its
impacts for most people . However it
is riddled with errors and
misrepresentations . We look in detail
at the most significant and media
worthy

67. HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES AND
CO2

68. ● “The atmosphere is being filled by huge
quantities of CO2”
● “Here is where the CO2 levels are now –
380 ppm and here – 650 ppm is where they
will be in 45 years if we do not act quickly”
● “Historical temperatures such as the
medieval warm period are tiny compared to
the enormous increases in the last 50 years”

80. “Almost all of the mountain glaciers in
the world are melting , many quite
rapidly”

81. GLACIER DATA
● Worldwide 160,000
● Inventoried 67,000
● Mass balance data 1+ years 200
● Mass balance data 5+ years 115
● Mass balance data winter/summer 79
● Mass balance data 10+ years 4
● This lack of data is ; “one of the most important
problems for mass balance glaciology “

111. HUMAN IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE

119. CONSENSUS AND
DENIERS

120. ● Increase in global temperatures of 0.6 degrees in
the last century
● Same increase in previous two centuries
● Temperature levels and rates of change in line
with historic and geological variations
● Link to human CO2 emission levels not proven
● Glacier , ice cap retreat and sea level rise in line
with historic trends and variation
● Tornadoes and hurricanes no more frequent or
stronger
● Rainfall and droughts no more frequent or intense
● No linkage between disease incidence or levels of
plant and animal extinctions

121. “The truth is that promoting science
isn't just about providing resources –
it's about protecting free and open
enquiry . It's about ensuring that facts
and evidence are never twisted or
obscured by politics.”
President Barack Obama December 20 ,
2008

122. ● “Truth does not change because it is , or is not ,
believed by a majority of the people”
Giordano Bruno 1548-1600
● “Convictions are more dangerous enemies of
truth than lies”
Friedrich Nietzsche 1844-1900
● “The pure and simple truth is rarely pure and
never simple”
Oscar Wilde 1854-1900
● “When the facts change I change my mind . What
do you do sir ?”
John Maynard Keynes 1883-1946

123. THE ENVIRONMENTAL LITANY
● Our resources are running out
● The air and water are becoming more polluted
● Species extinction is out of control
● The forests are disappearing
● We are running out of food and water
● There are too many of us
● Economic development is excessive
● Global warming is endangering the lives of
billions
● We are heading for global cataclysm

124. THE AGENDA
● “We may get to the point where the only way of
saving the world will be for industrial civilization
to collapse”
Maurice Strong , chair of the 1992 Rio
Conference and prime architect of the Kyoto
Protocol
● “We have got to ride the global warming issue .
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong ,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy”
Timothy Wirth , Undersecretary of State for
Global Issues

125. THE AGENDA
● “A global warming treaty must be implemented
even if there is no scientific evidence to back the
greenhouse effect”
Richard Benedick , Deputy Assistant Secretary of
State , US state Department
● “No matter if the science is all phony , there are
still collateral environmental benefits to global
warming policies .... Climate change provides the
greatest chance to bring about justice and
equality in the world”
Christine Stewart,Canada's Environment
Minister

126. THE AGENDA
● “Global warming is the mother of environmental
scares..... It dwarfs all the environmental and
safety scares of our time put together . Through
its primary antidote of withdrawing carbon from
production and consumption it is capable of
realizing the environmentalists dream of an
egalitarian society based on rejection of
economic growth in favour of a smaller
population lower on the economic and food
chain , consuming a lot less and sharing a much
lower level of resources much more equally”
Professor Aaron Wildavsky

127. Al Gore , on the basis of one flawed study ,
claimed that no reputable scientists disputed
the existence of anthropogenic global warming
(AGW) and its impacts . His followers assert
that there is a consensus on AGW and
inaccurately and offensively call those who
disagree with them “deniers”a term used with
obvious emotional links to those who deny the
Holocaust , and/or allege they are in the
pockets of and apologists for energy companies

128. ise
THE INVECTIVE
“The heads of major fossil fuel
companies who spread disinformation
about global warming should be tried
for crimes against humanity and
nature”
James Hansen 2008

129. THE INVECTIVE
● “We should have war crimes trials for
these bastards – some sort of climate
Nuremberg”
● “Climate change denial now looks as
stupid and unacceptable as Holocaust
denial”

130. THE INVECTIVE
“The diagnosis is clear , the science is
unequivocal – it's completely immoral
even to question now on the basis of what
we know , the reports that are out , to
question the issue and question whether
we need to move forward at a much
stronger pace as humankind to address
the issues” Gro Harlem
Bruntland 2007

131. CONSENSUS AND DENIERS
● We look at the results of formal statistical
surveys of the views of climatologists
● We look at the nature of the so called consensus
within the workings of the IPCC
● We obtain some understanding of the calibre of
some of the high profile “deniers”
● We look at the existence of groups of reputable
scientists who do not agree with Al Gore and the
IPCC

132. THE SURVEYS

134. THE SURVEY
● Survey of 500+ climatologists from 27 countries
● Conducted by Bray and von Storch , senior
German climatologists
● Carried out in 1996 and 2003
● Only climatologists could answer
● Numerical responses on 7 point scale to 99
climate assertions
● Grouped into agree , uncertain , disagree
categories
● Responses to the most significant assertions have
been analysed here

135. THE RESULTS
● 17 of the 99 question responses were used to give
an overall picture
● The responses were categorised as
● Agree- responses 1 2 3
● Uncertain- response 4
● Disagree- responses 5 6 7
● This analysis can smooth out very skew response
distributions

136. GLOBAL WARMING IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY
● Agree 82.2%
● Uncertain 6.4%
● Disagree 11.3%

137. HUMAN ACTIVITY IS CAUSING
CLIMATE CHANGE
● Agree 55.8%
● Uncertain 14.2%
● Disagree 30%

138. CLIMATE MODELS CAN
ACCURATELY PREDICT
CLIMATE
● Agree 35.1%
● Uncertain 18.3%
● Disagree 46.6%

139. CLIMATE MODELS
ACCURATELY VERIFY CLIMATE
CONDITIONS
● Agree 46.8%
● Uncertain 17.6%
● Disagree 35.6%

140. CLIMATE MODELS
ADEQUATELY DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION
● Agree 25.4%
● Uncertain 17.1%
● Disagree 57.5%

141. CLIMATE MODELS
ADEQUATELY DEAL WITH
WATER VAPOUR
● Agree 40.8%
● Uncertain 14.8%
● Disagree 44.4%

142. CLIMATE MODELS
ADEQUATELY DEAL WITH
CLOUDS
● Agree 24.1%
● Uncertain 14.1%
● Disagree 61.8%

143. CLIMATE MODELS
ADEQUATELY DEAL WITH
SOLAR RADIATION
● Agree 65.7%
● Uncertain 12.6%
● Disagree 21.7%

144. WOULD CLIMATE CHANGE
HAVE BENEFICIAL EFFECTS
● Agree 69.8%
● Uncertain 13.1%
● Disagree 17%

145. WOULD CLIMATE CHANGE
HAVE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS
● Agree 85.8%
● Uncertain 5.5%
● Disagree 8.6%

146. CLIMATE CHANGE WILL
HAPPEN SUDDENLY
● Agree 49.3%
● Uncertain 17.3%
● Disagree 33.4%

147. SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY HAS
BEEN REDUCED IN THE PAST
10 YEARS
● Agree 60.3%
● Uncertain 9.2%
● Disagree 30.5%

148. THE SCIENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY
SETTLED THAT THE
POLICYMAKERS CAN TAKE
OVER
● Agree 44.1%
● Uncertain 10.2%
● Disagree 45.8%

149. DOES THE MEDIA INFLUENCE
CLIMATE RESEARCH
● Agree 51.1%
● Uncertain 12.3%
● Disagree 36.5%

150. SCEPTICS RECEIVE TOO MUCH
MEDIA ATTENTION
● Agree 49.1%
● Uncertain 17.2%
● Disagree 33.7%

151. THE IPCC REFLECTS
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
● Agree 72.8%
● Uncertain 7.5%
● Disagree 19.7%

152. THE IPCC

153. ● UN in 1988 took over responsibility on behalf of
governments through the IPCC for assessing
scientific evidence for the impact of
anthropogenic CO2 on climate , likely
environmental social and economic impacts
and political responses
● Does not do scientific research but coordinates
and assesses work carried out around the world
● Publishes a Technical Report and a Summary for
Policy Makers (SPM)
● Four reports in 1990 , 1996 , 2001 , 2007

154. ● SPM content driven by politicians and makes
exaggerated statements not reflecting the science
● SPM is sometimes produced before the Technical
Report which is then modified to fit !
● IPCC contributors selected/rejected by
Governments/IPCC on the basis of conformity
with IPCC thinking
● Contributor contributions accepted/rejected on
the basis of conformance with consensus
● Majority of outcomes based on computer models
of future scenarios not experimental evidence

155. THE IPCC CONSENSUS

156. IPCC WORKING GROUPS
● The IPCC has three working groups with 1250
authors of whom only 20% have had some
involvement with climate
● WG1 assesses information on causes and
forecasts of climate change and has 600
reviewers
● WG2 looks at the impacts of climate change
● WG3 looks at response strategies
and between them WG2& 3 have 1900
reviewers . They assume that the conclusions of
WG1 are correct

157. IPCC PROCESSES
● IPCC approves outline
● Governments and NGO'S nominate experts
● Bureaux select authors
st
●
Authors prepare 1 draft
● Expert review
● Authors prepare 2nd draft
● Expert and government review
● Authors prepare final draft
● Final distribution/review of SPM
● WG IPCC accepts/approves reports and SPM
● Publication of reports

158. PEER REVIEW
● Peer reviewed = incontestable
● Non peer reviewed = unbelievable
● But it's not that simple ;
● “Peer review is a crude means of discovering the
acceptability , not the validity , of a new finding .
We portray peer review to the public as a quasi
sacred process that helps to make science our
most objective truth teller .But we know that the
system of peer review is biased , unjust
,unaccountable , incomplete , easily fixed , often
insulting , occasionally foolish and frequently
wrong”. Richard Horton Editor The Lancet

159. PEER REVIEW
● “There seems to be no study too fragmented , no
hypothesis too trivial , no literature too biased or
too egotistical , no design too warped , no
methodology too bungled , no presentation of
results too inaccurate , too obscure and too
contradictory , no analysis too self serving , no
argument too circular , no conclusions too
trifling or unjustified and no grammar or syntax
too offensive for a paper to end up in print”
Drummond Rennie organiser of the International
Congress on Peer Review and Biomedical
Publication

160. THE PEER REVIEW PROCESS
● The IPCC gives the impression of 2500 scientists
diligently reviewing all its reports
● Previously the number and type of peer reviews
were not published
● With the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 they
were forced by FOI to release this information
● The picture that emerges is very different from
the public perception

161. THE PEER REVIEW PROCESS
● 308 reviewers commented on the penultimate
draft
● Only 32 reviewers commented on more than
three chapters
● Only 5 commented on all 11 chapters
● The IPCC chapter editors however believed their
say was final and theirs was the only correct
interpretation
● Very often there was little justification for
rejection and acceptance only of trivial
modifications

162. IPCC AND PEER REVIEW
● “I have never witnessed a more disturbing
corruption of the peer review process....More
than 15 sections were changed or deleted after
the scientists charged with examining this
question had accepted the supposedly final
text...The following passages are examples of
those deleted .”
● “None of the studies cited above has shown clear
evidence that we can attribute observed climate changes
to.... increases in greenhouse gases”
● “No study to date has positively attributed all or part of
the climate change to... man made causes”
● Dr Frederick Seitz past President N.A.S

163. THE ATTRIBUTION OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
● Only 62 of the 308 reviewers commented on this
most important chapter
● 31 reviewers were part of the IPCC process and
26 were authors of papers in the chapter !
● Just 23 individual and 8 government reviewers
had no vested interest
● Only 5 of the 23 independent reviewers explicitly
endorsed the chapter

164. WHAT PEER REVIEW ?
● Of the 44 chapters in the latest (2007) IPCC
report (AR4) the following peer review
percentage applied
● 21 59% or less
● 4 60-69%
● 6 70-79%
● 5 80-89%
● 8 90-100%

165. SUMMARY FOR POLICY
MAKERS
● Selectively reports on the science
● Published three months before the Technical
Report !
● Only 51 out of 1250 authors worked on the draft
version
● The final SPM written at a plenary session
primarily of government representatives and
representatives of environmental and industrial
organisations

166. “ Most institutions demand unqualified
faith but the institution of science
makes scepticism a virtue”
Professor Robert K Merton
“Scepticism is the first step towards
truth”
Denis Diderot 1713-84

167. THE CORRUPTION OF SCIENCE
“ When an issue becomes a vital part of a
political agenda as is the case with climate ,
then the politically desired position becomes a
goal rather than a consequence of scientific
research . Scientists will then adjust data and
even theory to accommodate politically correct
positions ”
Professor Richard Lindzen

168. THE CORRUPTION OF SCIENCE
“ Penetrating questions often ended without any
answer . Comments on the IPCC drafts were
rejected without any explanation and attempts
to pursue the matter were frustrated
indefinitely ... the data collection and scientific
methods employed are unsound . Resistance to
all efforts to try and discuss or rectify these
problems has convinced me that normal
scientific procedures are not only rejected by
the IPCC but that this practice is endemic ,..... I
therefore consider that the IPCC is
fundamentally corrupt “
Professor Vincent Gray

169. CLIMATEGATE
● Series of emails from 1996 to 2009
● Concerned with modifying data and analyses to
conform with the AGW scenario
● Discuss how to discredit and cut out those
scientists who disagree
● Overall impugn the integrity of IPCC
-Temperature data
-Temperature analyses
-Processes

170. CLIMATEGATE CHARACTERS
● Mike Mann (US) - the man behind the infamous
Hockey Stick
● Keith Briffa (US) - producer of suspect tree ring
based temperature analyses
● Ben Santer (US) – the man who in 1995
unilaterally stated that there was unambiguous
evidence of man made global warming
● Phil Jones (UK) – custodian of the UK
temperature data and analyses
● Tom Wigley – an earlier advocate of AGW who
became increasingly disaffected

172. ● Internationally recognised scientists at or near the
top of their disciplines
● Below is a sample of the most outstanding
● The name of each is given together with their
speciality
● I can give more detail now , if you wish based on
the book , The Deniers
● They have called into question aspects of global
warming where it conflicts with their
authoritative knowledge
● All have specialised mastery in their own areas ,
those in bold type are recognised as unique
international authorities

173. ● Dr Edward Wegman Statistician
● Professor Richard Tol Economist
● Dr Christopher Landsea Hurricane
meteorologist
● Professor Duncan Wingham Polar
climatologist
● Professor Robert Carter Earth scientist
● Professor Richard Lindzen Meteorologist
● Dr Vincent Gray Climatologist
● Dr Syun Ichi Akasofu Arctic geophysicist
● Professor Tom Segalstad Geologist
● Professor Nir Shaviv Astrophysicist

174. ● Dr Zbigniew Jaworowski Physicist
● Dr David Bromwich Arctic meteorologist
● Professor Hendrik Tennekes Meteorologist
● Professor Freeman Dyson Physicist
● Professor Antonino Zichichi Nuclear physicist
● Dr Eigil Friis Christensen Geophysicist
● Dr Henrik Svensmark Solar physicist
● Professor Sami Solanki Astronomer
● Dr Jasper Kirkby Particle physicist
● Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov Mathematical
physicist

175. ● Dr George Kukla Solar physicist
● Professor Rhodes Fairbridge Geologist
● Professor William Gray Meteorologist &
Geophysicist
● Professor Cliff Ollier Geomorphologist
● Professor Paul Reiter Entomologist
● Dr Claude Allegre Physicist
● Professor Reid Bryson Meteorologist
● Professor Ian Plimer Geologist
● Professor Garth Paltridge Atmospheric physicist

176. ● Professor Howard Hayden Physicist
● Professor Patrick Michaels Climatologist
● Professor Robert Balling Climatologist
● Dr Roy Spencer Climatologist
● Professor Fred Singer Physicist

177. GROUPS OF SCIENTISTS
DISSENTING FROM THE
AGW MANTRA

178. ● Heidelberg Appeal 1992 signed by 4000
scientists
● Bali Open Letter 2007 signed by 103 world
climate experts to UN Secretary General
● Manhattan Declaration 2008 on Climate change
with 1,300 endorsers
● US Senate Minority Report 2008 signed by 650
international scientists
● Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Project
signed by 31,000 scientists , engineers .

179. THE OREGON INSTITUTE
DISSENTING STATEMENT
“There is no convincing scientific evidence that
the human release of carbon dioxide , methane
or other greenhouse gases is causing or will , in
the foreseeable future , cause catastrophic
heating of the Earth's atmosphere and
disruption of the Earth's climate . Moreover
there is substantial evidence that increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many
beneficial effects upon the natural plant and
animal environments of the earth”

182. WEEK THREE SUMMARY
● There are significant numbers of scientists , many
of international stature , who disagree that human
caused CO2 is the prime driver of climate change
● The IPCC is driven by political agendas and
represents the views of a small number of
scientists not a consensus of 2500
● The IPCC processes for collecting and analysing
data have been corrupted to maintain the AGW
story
● Those scientists who are sceptical of IPCC claims
are attacked personally and professionally

183. FORECASTS , FEARS
AND POLICIES

185. THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
● It is alleged that temperatures are out of control
and that a 2 degree increase will give rise to
catastrophic , irreversible climate change
● Forecasts of the world in 100 years are that there
will be huge negative impacts on humanity , in
terms of welfare and economics
● It is stated that to overcome these there should be
immediate massive changes to move from a
carbon to a non carbon economy
● These changes should be implemented through
UN coordinated global bodies with extensive
supra national legal powers

186. 1900 - THE UNKNOWN FUTURE
● Airports ● Laser
● Antennae ● Microwaves
● Antibiotics ● Neutron
● Atomic bomb ● Nuclear energy
● Computer ● Penicillin
● DVD ● Radio
● Ecosystem ● Robot
● Gene ● Video
● Internet ● Virus

187. FORECASTS

188. FORECASTING PRINCIPLES
● Unaided judgemental forecasts by experts have
no value due to complexity , coincidence ,
feedback and bias
● Agreement among experts is weakly related to
accuracy
● Complex forecasting models harm accuracy
because their errors multiply
● With even modest uncertainty , model forecast
prediction intervals are enormous
● When there is uncertainty in forecasting ,
forecasts should be conservative

189. FORECASTS BY EXPERTS
● A 20 year study was carried out of 82,000
forecasts made by groups of experts
● Forecasts were of probabilities of outcomes as
well as specific outcomes
● These were compared with forecasts made by non
experts and simple rules
● The experts performed no better than non experts
or simple rules
● There was typically no feedback process by
which expert forecasts were compared with
outcomes

190. ● “I think there is a world market for maybe five
computers” 1943
● “There is no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home” 1977
● “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk” 1927
● “Drill for oil in the ground . You must be crazy”
1859
● “The atom bomb will never go off . I speak as an
expert in explosives” 1944
● “Stocks have reached what looks like a
permanently high plateau” 1929

191. ● “Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military
value”
● “Man will never reach the moon regardless of all
future scientific advances”
● “Heavier than air flying machines are
impossible” 1895
● “640k ought to be enough for anybody” 1984
● “The horse is here to stay , but the automobile is
only a novelty” 1903

192. ● The battle to feed humanity is over . In the
1970's and 1980's hundreds of millions of people
will starve to death 1968
● “The advent of a new ice age scientists say ,
appears to be guaranteed” 1992
● “An environmental holocaust without precedent
if we do not stop having babies” 1992
● “US life expectancy will drop to 42 years by 1980
due to cancer epidemics and the population will
drop to 22.6 million” 1969
● “DDT will wipe out nearly 100% of the human
population from a cancer epidemic in one
generation” 1962

193. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
● Mathematical formulae which attempt to forecast
future climate based on assumed start conditions
and relationships for thousands of variables
● Oversimplify poorly understood climate
processes and interactions
● Same models produce different results
● Unable to generate current or historical
temperatures , globally or regionally
● Based on deficient temperature data
● Wrong on every forecast to date

195. CLIMATE FACTOR
UNDERSTANDING
● High
Long lived greenhouse gases
● Medium
Stratospheric & Tropospheric ozone
● Medium to Low
Direct Aerosol
Cloud Albedo

196. ● Low
Cloud Albedo Effect
Surface Albedo
Persistent Linear Contrails
Solar Irradiance
Volcanic Aerosols
● Very Low
Stratospheric Water Vapour
Tropospheric Water Vapour
Aviation induced Cirrus
Cosmic Rays
Other Surface Effects

199. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL
FORECASTS
● For such models to give accurate results it is
necessary to include , at an appropriate level of
detail ;
● All relevant factors and weights
● Accurate definitions of their interrelationships
● How these vary over time
● Probability distributions over time
● Correct initialization
● Means of validating forecasting performance
● Few of these exist

201. “Today's scientists have substituted
mathematics for experiments and they wander
off through equation after equation and
eventually build a structure which has no
relation to reality”
Nikolai Tesla 1934

202. BUT WAIT , THERE'S MORE
● IPCC attempt , in addition to climate , to forecast
future population , energy growth , economic
development , technological and social
development 100 years into the future. However :
● Predicted warming three times that observed
● Predictions of the nature of warming at the poles ,
northern and southern hemispheres , atmosphere
and oceans all wrong
● Reconciliation to actual temperatures through
mathematical curve fitting not an understanding
of the science

203. IPCC AND FORECASTS
● The IPCC says it does not provide forecasts but
scenarios or projections
● “Scenarios are not predictions of the future and
should not be used as such .
● Scenarios are neither predictions or forecasts .
The possibility that any single emissions path
will occur is highly uncertain .
● No judgement is offered in this report as to the
preference for any of the scenarios and they are
not assigned probabilities of occurrence nor
must they be interpreted as policy
recommendations”

204. IPCC AND FORECASTS
● “In climate research and modelling we should
recognise that we are dealing with a coupled
non linear chaotic system and therefore that the
long term prediction of future climate states is
not possible”
● In one chapter of the 2007 report however it uses
the word forecast or its derivatives 37 times and
predict or its derivatives 90 times”
● The SPM goes even further to say that “ increase
in global temperatures is 90% likely due to
increase in anthropogenic CO2”

205. AUDIT OF IPCC FORECASTING
METHODOLOGY
● Accurate forecasting processes should comply
with well established principles of forecasting
science , of which 140 have been identified in the
forecasting literature
● Of the 140 , 127 were considered relevant to
climate forecasting as practiced by the IPCC
● Only 89 could be rated
● There were 60 clear violations
● There were 12 apparent violations
● There was no evidence that any use of the
forecasting literature had been made

206. FEARS

207. “No passion so effectively robs the mind
of all of its powers of acting and reasoning
as fear” Edmund Burke 1729-97
“Nothing in life is to be feared , only to be
understood . Now is the time to
understand more so that we may fear
less”
Marie Curie 1867-1934
“Fear is not the natural state of civilised
people”
Auung San Sui Kyi 1945-

208. ● “Unless we announce disasters , no one will
listen”
Sir John Houghton 1988
● “To capture the public imagination we have
to offer up scary scenarios , make simplified
dramatic statements and little mention of
any doubts one might have”
Stephen Schneider 1989
● “Scientists who want to attract attention
and great funding to themselves have to find
a way to scare the public”
Professor Peter Chylek 2001

211. FEAR STAGES
● Initial concerns
● Exaggeration of concerns
● Development of scary scenarios
● The media take sides
● Special interest groups jump on board
● The precautionary principle is invoked
● The politicians have to act
● Dissenters are vilified
● The facts/consequences become clear
● The scare subsides

212. POLICIES

213. POLICY AND FORECASTS
● Climate change policies should only be
implemented if there are accurate long term
forecasts for ;
● Mean global temperature in the long term
● Effects of any temperature rise on climate
● Effects of climatic changes on people , animals
and plants
● Population levels and distribution
● Technological developments
● Costs and benefits of feasible alternative policy
proposals

214. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
● Mitigation advocates think that long term
forecasts of global warming and its climate and
associated impacts are accurate and caused
predominantly by anthropogenic CO2
● State that the best way to mitigate these impacts
is by immediately reducing CO2 levels by
changing the economic base of society
● Adaptation advocates think that forecasts of
human caused global warming and its climate and
associated impacts are speculative and caused
predominantly by natural causes
● State that the best way to adapt to future climate
changes and impacts is to monitor and adapt

215. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
● All of the14 authoritative and independent
economic analyses other than Stern & Garnaut
show that if AGW is true and mitigation is
adopted
● The costs far outweigh the benefits
● Delaying action is more cost effective than taking
precipitate action
● If of course the causes of global warming are
predominantly natural , then adaptation is the
only option

216. STERN/GARNAUT
● Take multi century speculative forecasts of
climate , technology , economy and society
● Adopt worst case scenarios in terms of adverse
consequences and human ability to cope with
climate change
● Adopt methods of valuing outcomes which are at
variance with the majority of other experts
● Move from highly speculative modelling
outcomes to unambiguous and urgent, highly
centralised political recommendations

217. THE EXPERTS REVIEW OF
STERN
● “The Stern Review is very selective in the studies
it quotes , invariably seeking only the most
pessimistic of them . It can only be dismissed as
alarmist and incompetent”
Professor Richard Tol
● Similar comments from ;
● Professor William Nordhaus – Economist Yale
● Professor Colin Henderson – Chief economist
OECD
● Professor Ian Castles – Chief Statistician
Australian Government

218. KYOTO PROTOCOL 1997
● 10,000 participants , 2,000 from governments ,
3,000 media , 5,000 from 200 NGO's
● Reductions in CO2 emissions of 5% of 1990
levels by industrialised countries by 2010
● No specification how to be achieved
● Global emissions trading scheme to be
administered by the UN
● Estimated cost $716 billion
● If all targets met , global temperature reduction
by 2050 of 0.05 degree C !

219. KYOTO OUTCOMES
● As at 2007 CO2 emissions had increased by 38%
and climbing
● European emissions trading schemes failed , with
CO2 prices dropping from $36/tonne to $0.15
between 2005/7 with a similar drop in the next
two years
● There is no record of effectiveness of such
schemes e.g. for SO2 in the USA
● Potential costs of such schemes are likely to be
immense with little gain
● The main beneficiaries will be financial trading
companies and rent seekers

221. COPENHAGEN
● A disaster !
● Had an underlying agenda of ;
● “ A huge reordering of the world economy , likely
involving trillions of dollars in wealth transfer ,
millions of losses and gains , new taxes ,
industrial relocations , new tariffs and subsidies
and complicated payments for greenhouse gas
abatement schemes and carbon taxes – all under
the supervision and control of an unelected world
body”
● Rejected by the developing nations principally
China and India

222. C.P.R.S
● Accepts the scariest climate scenarios and
impacts and economic analyses
● Targets a 60% reduction in 2000 greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 , not achievable even if all
coal fired power stations were converted to
nuclear !
● Hopes to facilitate this through an Emissions
Trading Scheme
● Reinforces the Scheme through draconian
legislation
● Creates alarm through the incorrect use of the
words “carbon pollution”

224. CPRS LEGISLATION
● Can decide through issue/withholding of permits
whether generators can produce or not
● Can unilaterally decide on the value of coal based
power stations and investments in them
● Abolishes the right to silence
● Abolishes the right to self incrimination
● Reverses the onus of proof from innocent until
proved guilty
● Sets aside the privacy laws

225. “Emissions regulation offers government an
irresistible opportunity to centralize and control
every aspect of our lives ; on our roads , on our
travels , in our workplaces , on our farms , in
our forests and our mines and more
threateningly in our homes , constructed as
they will be compelled to be , of very specific
materials and of prescribed sizes . It is not
difficult to foresee a diktat as to how many
lights we may turn on and when we must turn
them off : the great curfew . The new regime
has the capacity to make the wartime National
Security Regulations look like a timid exercise
of government restraint”
Ian Callinan AC QC Justice of the High Court

226. LOW VS HIGH CARBON
ECONOMIES !

227. WHY SHOULD WE WORRY
ABOUT CLIMATE POLICIES
● They pay little regard to the cost effectiveness of
schemes for “fighting climate change”
● Create opportunities for lobbying and rent
seeking
● Open up the probability of a range of worrying
intrusions on the freedom of people and
enterprises
● Divert attention and resources away from real ,
current and more pressing concerns

233. THE REAL WORLD
● China and India realise that their major priority is
to overcome the world's major killer – absolute
poverty – through economic growth
● China has brought 650 million people out of
absolute poverty in 40 years -the largest poverty
reduction scheme in history
● In one year China and India increased their GDP
by $750 billion equal to 20 years global
development aid
● A key feature underpinning this development is
the provision of cheap energy

234. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES

235. THE IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY
● Modern civilisation depends on available cheap
energy in the form of electricity
● The primary source of such energy is currently
hydrocarbon based ; gas , oil and coal
● Alternatives are potentially
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Biofuels
Nuclear
Geothermal
● We look at two of these ; Wind and Nuclear

236. WIND POWER
● Highly variable depending on wind speed
● Unreliable and outside the control of grid
management
● Inefficient ; 5000 windmills , covering 100 sq km
necessary to replace one 2000 MW coal fired
plant
● Cannot replace base load generation and needs
base load back up to cope with its variability
● Does not inevitably reduce alternative fuel use
● Does not inevitably reduce emissions and is
environmentally damaging
● The highest cost option

237. NUCLEAR POWER
● It is reliable and can thus provide critical base
load power
● Higher capital costs
● Lower operating costs
● Can be easily upgraded
● No air pollution-SO2
● Zero CO2 emissions !
● Nuclear fuel is recyclable
● Nuclear power is safe

238. THE SPANISH EXPERIENCE
● Renewables subsidised at a cost of $36 billion
● 50,000 green jobs at a cost of $500,000 each
● Only 1 in 10 were in ongoing operation
● Provide less than 10% of Spain's electricity
● Each green job added $774,000 to consumers
bills
● 2.2 jobs lost for every green job created
● Each green job destroyed between 5.39 to 8.99
jobs per MW installed
● Can destabilise electricity grid operation

239. THE NEW RELIGION ?
● Sin - the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere by
humanity through economic growth
● Prophets – the IPCC and media who look into
the future and predict dreadful consequences as a
result
● Repentance - through changing lifestyles at an
individual , corporate , country and global level
● Truth - “the science is settled”
● Heresy – the vilification and silencing of
dissenting scientists who do not agree
● Salvation – through the stopping of global
warming/climate change effects

241. “It is important for assessments in this
regard to be carried out prudently in
dialogue with experts and people of
wisdom uninhibited by ideological
pressure to draw hasty conclusions and
above all with the aim of reaching
agreement on a model of sustainable
development capable of ensuring the well
being of all while respecting
environmental balances”
Pope Benedict XVI

242. AN APPEAL TO REASON
“The new religion of global warming...... is a great
story and a phenomenal best seller . It contains a
grain of truth and a mountain of nonsense . And
that nonsense could be very damaging indeed .
We appear to have entered a new age of
unreason , which threatens to be as economically
harmful as it is profoundly disquieting . It is from
this above all that we really do need to save the
planet”
Nigel Lawson An Appeal to Reason