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INVESTOR UPDATE	

                                                                                                                                  2013


    Park Street Financial Group
                                     Park Street Financial Group (PSF) is a private, objective, Registered Investment Advisor which manages
     CONTENTS                        portfolios of public equities, fixed income, and commercial real estate for both individual and
                                     institutional investors. We focus on strategy, investment selection, and holistic reporting to support
     Our Approach                    the decision making process.
     Asset Classes

     Passive v Active Investing      In this Investor Update I wanted to review a few of the key aspects of our approach to portfolio management and present
                                     some details on how we research equity managers, manage fixed income portfolios, and source direct real estate investments.
     Finding Good Managers

     Fixed Income Portfolios
                                     Our Approach
     Real Estate Investments
                                     PSF’s approach to portfolio management is modeled after top university endowment management
                                     practices. We take a long-term, methodical approach to investing and believe this will yield more
                                     consistent results. We do not invest in hot stocks nor do we attempt to time the market. Comparatively
                                     we are kind of boring when standing beside stock jockeys or the hot hedge fund of the day. Historical
                                     analysis tends to support a long-term strategy overwhelmingly. In a study by Charles Ellis1 he says that
                                     market timing represents a loosing strategy.
                                     “There is no evidence of any large institutions having anything like consistent ability to get in when the market is low and
                                     get out when the market is high. Attempts to switch between stocks and bonds, or between stocks and cash, in anticipation
                                     of market moves have been unsuccessful much more often than they have been successful.”
                                     Three basic tenets form the foundation of our investing strategy. First, we believe smart diversification
                                     helps reduce risk and achieve more consistent returns. Second, although we are skeptical of active
                                     management, we will employ active managers where we believe the chance for market outperformance
                                     is good and when our research surfaces exceptional skill. Finally, we will default to passive investing
                                     when we have the option and when good managers can’t be found.

                                     Asset Classes
                                     Separating investments into different asset classes and studying their relationships is one of the key tools
                                     that sophisticated investors use. It enables us to better leverage market knowledge to improve portfolio
                                     performance and reduce risk. A few examples of different asset classes are bonds, stocks, and real
                                     estate. We separate them into classes because as groups they behave differently from each other as
                                     economic conditions change. Figure 1 shows a list of the major
                                     asset classes we use along with their expected real returns and
                                     standard deviations. Real returns are adjusted for inflation.              Asset         Real    Standard
                                                                                                                          Class          Return     Deviation
                                     History is used to help understand the relationship between
                                     asset classes and determine if classes are correlated in any way.                    Absolute        6.0%         10%
                                                                                                                          Return
                                     If two classes are positively correlated with each other then we
                                     can expect them to move in the same direction together. If they                      Domestic        6.0%         20%
                                     are negatively correlated then we can expect them to react                           Equity
                                     inversely, from each other, to changes in economic conditions.                       Fixed
                                     Of course between theses two extremes is zero correlation                                            2.0%         10%
                                                                                                                          Income
                                     which says, when one asset class moves we can’t make any
                                     assumption about how the other class will move.                                      Emerging        8.0%         25%
                                                                                                                          Equity
                                     This is very valuable knowledge indeed. Imagine we want to                           Real
                                     invest in two investments for a long term however, they are very                                     6.0%         14%
                                                                                                                          Assets
                                     volatile. They could gain or loose 20% of their value in any
                                                                                                                          Private
                                     given year. If we combine them into a portfolio and they are                         Equity          11%          28%
                                     negatively correlated then their movements will have a
                                     canceling effect on each other. That is, the movement of the                     Figure 1. Asset Classes and their
                                                                                                                      expected returns and standard
                                     portfolio will be a lot smoother (i.e. less volatile) than either one            deviations.
                                     of the individual investments.



1   Charles D. Ellis, “Winning the Loser’s Game” Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing, 3d ed.
INVESTOR UPDATE	

                                                                                                                       2013


Correlations between asset classes are expressed through correlation
                                                                                           U.S.     Fixed   Emerging   Absolute   Private    Real
values which are calculated using historical data. Savvy investors                        Equity   Income    Equity     Return    Equity    Assets
have learned that relying purely on history to help forecast the
future is only so good. So to improve the effectiveness of using               U.S.        1.00
                                                                               Equity
correlations as a tool we modify correlation values to reflect our
assumptions of future economic, political, and market conditions.              Fixed                1.00
                                                                               Income
For example, many investors believe as Emerging Markets become
more developed they will tend to become more positively correlated             Emerging                       1.00
with the developed world. This will in turn reduce some of the                 Equity
benefit of diversifying across Emerging Markets and will tend to
                                                                               Absolute
drive up the expected volatility (aka risk) of a portfolio.                    Return
                                                                                                                         1.00

The table in Figure 2 shows our assumptions of changes in                      Private
                                                                               Equity                                              1.00
expected correlation between different asset classes. Red, up
pointing arrows indicate that we expect asset class pairs to become            Real                                                          1.00
more positively correlated. Down facing green arrows indicate the              Assets
pair is expected to become less positively correlated.
                                                                              Figure 2. Expected changes in correlation between different asset
                                                                              class pairs. Data provided by Yale Investment Management Office.



ASSET CLASS                       CLASS INDEX                          ETF    Passive versus Active Investing
                                                                     TICKER
Domestic Equity
                                                                              Passive investing in a market means to invest in a broad
    Large Cap Equity                                                          basket of securities which represent that entire market and only
         US Large Core Passive    Russell 1000                       IWB
                                                                              trade when a security is no longer considered a member of that
                                                                              market. Passive Investing means you are not trying to guess the
         US Large Value Active    Russell 1000 Value                 IWB
                                                                              winners or losers or trying to time when to buy or when to sell.
         US Large Growth Active   Russell 1000 Growth                IWF
                                                                              ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) are the most common passive
    Small Cap Equity
                                                                              investment. They are are basket securities, commonly run by a
         US Small Cap             Russell 2000                       IWM
                                                                              computer, which simply follow market indexes. ETFs are very
         US Small Cap Value       Russell 2000                                efficient, low cost instruments. Today there are thousands of
         US Small Cap Growth      Russell 2000                                them and at least one for every index which tracks publicly
    Micro Cap Equity                                                          traded markets.
         US Micro Cap             Russell Micro Cap                  IWC
Foreign Equity                                                                Figure 3 shows the ticker symbol for each ETF we use. Each
    Developed Int’l Equity                                                    ETF tracks some index. For example, IWB tracks the Russell
         Developed Lg Cap         MSCI ACWI ex. US                   ACWX     1000 index. SPY tracks the S&P 500 index.
         Developed All Cap        MSCI ACWI ex. US                            Active investment management means a person is making
         Developed Small Cap      FTSE Developed Sm Cap ex. US       IFSM     the investment decisions and is typically trying to outperform an
    Emerging Markets                                                          index. The investment manager relies on research and
         Emerging Markets         MSCI Emerging Markets              EEM      experience to make decisions on what and when to buy and
Fixed Income                                                                  then when to sell.
    Fixed Income
         Taxable Fixed Income     BarCap Intermediate Govt./Credit   GVI      When we have the option of a passive vehicle for an asset class
         Cash
                                                                              and we choose an active manager then we are expecting that
Absolute Return
                                                                              manager to do better than the passive vehicle. Essentially, there
    Absolute Return
                                                                              is an implicit mandate on that manager to outperform the asset
                                                                              class as a whole. We are expecting him/her to provide enough
         Absolute Return          S&P 500                            SPY
                                                                              additional value to cover his costs and give us some excess
Hedged Equity
                                                                              return. In our final analysis we are looking for strong indicators
    Hedged Equity
                                                                              which support a managers ability to meet or exceed that
         Hedged Equity            S&P 500                            SPY
                                                                              mandate. If we don’t find that support we choose a passive
Real Assets
                                                                              route.
    Real Assets
         Real Estate              Cohen & Steers Realty Majors       ICF
                                                                              Finding Good Managers
Figure 3. Filters applied to Emerging Markets managers.
                                                                              There are literally thousands of money managers of publicly
                                                                              traded securities. Managers range from small one or two person
                                                                              shops to large teams of analysts. Some are very focused
                                                                              whereas others may diversify across asset types. Filtering
INVESTOR UPDATE	

                                                                                                                                         2013


through this ever expanding, changing pool of managers
can be very time consuming and nerve racking without a                      Filter                   Metric      Description
quantitative based process and good tools.
                                                                                                                 Ratio of excess return divided by the variability
Our process has two stages. The first stage produces an
                                                                                                                 of the portfolio. Excess return is equal to the
“A” list of managers for each asset class. We start with a                                                       portfolio return minus the return on a short term
pool of 29,000+ public funds, segregate them by                             Sharpe Ratio             > 40%
                                                                                                                 risk free bond like a 6 month US Treasury. In
investment focus and strategy and then begin to apply                                                            short its the return generated by taking on risk
filters. The filters are designed to eliminate the low                                                             divided by the risk measured as volatility.
quality managers. Figure 4 shows some of the metrics
we use to filter Emerging Markets managers.
                                                                                                                 Ratio of Managers Return to a market
Sharpe Ratio - is a measure of how much additional                                                               benchmark during periods of rising markets.
                                                                            Upside Capture
return an investment has been generating for the                                                     > 100%      Measures a managers performance in up
                                                                            Ratio (5 Yr)
amount of measured volatility. For riskier investments                                                           markets. Greater than 100% means the
                                                                                                                 manager returned more than the asset class.
like Emerging Markets stocks the Sharpe Ratio tends to
average lower than for riskier investment types. We like
this ratio because it shows good market intelligence.                                                            Ratio of Managers Return to a market
Managers who can generate equal or more return and                                                               benchmark during declining periods. Measures
do that with less risk tend to be smarter and execute                       Downside Capture         < 100%      a managers performance in up markets. Greater
                                                                            Ratio (5 Yr)
better than the rest.                                                                                            than 100% means the manager returned more
                                                                                                                 than the asset class.
Upside and Downside Capture Ratio - compares a
manager to his benchmark in both up and down              Figure 4. Filters applied to Emerging Markets managers.
markets. For us to invest with a manager we look for him
to perform better than the benchmark in up markets
which means his capture ratio should exceed 100% of the
market. In down markets we look for managers to not loose as much and therefore drop less than 100% of the market.

“A” List 2
Figure 5 below shows a small sample of an A-List of managers. This list helps us contrast an investment with its benchmark. For each
metric a value is given for the investment and for the benchmark. The Trailing Return columns show which one returned more the
investment or the benchmark. If the investment did better then the value is positive. If the benchmark outperformed the investment


Manager Analysis A-List                                                                             Annual Returns                       Trailing Returns
       Investment                 Ticker   Return   Return Return   Std. Dev    Std. Dev 2011 2010 2009          2008     2007   2011    2010   2009     2008     2007
                                  Symbol   (YTD)     (3Yr)  (5Yr)     (3Yr)       (5Yr)
Emerging Markets
     Eaton Vance Parametric       EITEX     13.6     6.5    (0.1)     19.7           27.2   (18.1) 23.3   68.2   (51.0)   40.2   0.8     6.8     (0.7)   (2.1)     7.0
        iShares MSCI Emerging      EEM      10.3     3.9    (1.7)     24.3           30.3   (18.8) 16.5   68.9   (48.9)   33.1
Fixed Income
      PIMCO Total Return          PTTRX     9.1      7.7    8.9       3.4            4.3     4.2   8.8    13.8    4.8     9.1    (1.8)   3.4     11.9    (3.4)
        iShares Barclays Interm    GVI      3.1      4.8    5.6       2.4            4.2     6.0   5.5    2.0     8.2      -


Figure 5. A-List example of managers for Emerging Markets and Fixed Income asset groups. Trailing returns shows differences with the
benchmark ETF for each asset class.


then the value is shown in red. For example, PIMCO Total Return fund outperformed its benchmark in 2009 by 11.9 more percentage
points and underperformed by 3.4 less percentage points in the previous year.
Each quarter we update the A-List with new managers who have surfaced from the first stage of filtering (typically each asset class will
have one to five managers in the A-List). We then look for how well our select manager is performing relative to the benchmark and
the other managers. This is where we make investment decisions, whether to continue with a manager or to replace him with another
manager or with an ETF for the asset class. The decision is mostly quantitative driven however, its also balanced against capital gains
tax implications and whether we believe a manager will recover lost ground over the next six to twelve months.



2   Each quarters refined A-List can be downloaded from our website.
INVESTOR UPDATE	

                                                                                                                                 2013


Fixed Income Portfolios
For some institutional and individual clients PSF manages low risk fixed income portfolios                                 A Few Key Points on CDs
in separate accounts 3. This practice focuses on strategies which maximize return while
                                                                                                                      We only buy CDs issued by FDIC
meeting the policy driven risk mandates of treasury cash equivalent accounts, reserve
                                                                                                                      insured banks
funds, foundations, endowments, and some trust accounts.                                                              We use “traditional” CDs which have
Fixed income investments like certificates of deposit (CDs), treasuries, municipal bonds,                              fixed interest rates.
                                                                                                                      In order to maximize FDIC insurance
and corporate bonds typically pay a dividend and then return the principal at maturity. As
                                                                                                                      we stay under the $250K FDIC
with all investments there is risk. All fixed income investments decline in value as interest                          insurance limit per insured bank.
rates rise. Therefore, the risk is in selling when rates are rising rather than holding to
maturity. In addition, they all have loss of principal risk except for those which are secured
by the Federal Government namely CDs and treasuries. As is evident in the markets today
even U.S State municipalities can default on debt.
Our practice focuses on strategies which meet a “preservation of principal” policy requirement. This restricts our investments to
“traditional” CDs and U.S. treasuries. However, even with a limited selection of investments, higher returns can still be engineered by
spreading investments over longer maturities. We call this “maturity laddering” and its an effective strategy when cash requirements
are well understood. Following is a fixed income laddering example which demonstrates this point.


    Condominium Reserve Fund - Strategy
                         1YR CD           2YR CD           3YR CD            4YR CD             5YR CD                         Bank               Invested
       Invested          $200,000        $200,000         $200,000          $300,000           $300,000             GE MONEY BANK                 $154,175

     Yield Range      .72% - .845%      .97%-1.1%       1.31%-1.48%       1.62%-1.73%        1.88%-2.29%            GOLDMAN SACHS BK              $196,453

                                                                                                                    GE CAP FINL INC               $181,706
    Client: Condominium Reserve Fund.                                                                                                             $147,145
                                                                                                                    GE CAPITAL RETAIL BK
    Fund: $1.4 million                                                                                              ALLY BK                        $47,931

                                                                                                                    DISCOVER BANK                 $168,343
    Results: Using laddering we achieved a 1.47% annualized return versus the .25% return they had
    been receiving in a money market fund.                                                                          AMER EXP CENT BK               $51,426

                                                                                                                    MORTON CMNTY                    $8,568
    Strategy: Based on the results of a current reserve study we determined the annual cash
    requirements for capital expenditures over the next 5 years. We then laddered the investments                   REPUBLIC BANK                  $10,589
    across CDs with maturities ranging from 1 to 5 years in the amounts shown above.                                BARCLAYS BANK NA               $48,521
    For this account we purchased over 1000 small CDs. It sounds like a lot but the yield on smaller                BMW NA                         $52,607
    denominated CDs is typically slightly higher than for the larger ones. And there are no transaction
                                                                                                                    OHIO VALLEY BANK                $8,322
    fees.
                                                                                                                    LEHMAN COML BANK               $37,306
    Note: While 1.47% is not a lot of return it is six times what was being achieved. Using this strategy
                                                                                                                    MIDFIRST BANK                  $11,314
    over time through different interest rate regimes does maximize return while not compromising
    principal.                                                                                                      CAPITAL ONE                    $95,917




Real Estate Investments
A strategic focus of our group is sourcing and managing indirect and direct investments in commercial real estate for both capital
growth and income needs 4. We focus on finding, building relationships with, and ultimately investing in highly skilled real estate
developers. Finding such developers with the solid financial practices we seek is very hard indeed. Most are small private companies
who do not advertise themselves.



3 Within clients diversified investment accounts we also invest in fixed income. However, in those cases the investment is part of a balanced risk/return strategy
that does not typically carry a mandate to preserve principal. Therefore, we pursue a little higher return by investing with select managers like PIMCO. These
managers invest in all different types of bonds like corporates, munis, and other countries government issued bonds.
4As with fixed income, within clients diversified investment accounts we also invest in real estate, typically through REITs or funds of REITs. In these accounts
REITs are used strategically to balance and to diversify.
INVESTOR UPDATE	

                                                                                                                           2013


Through creative development and re-marketing efforts skilled developers of real estate can add
significant value to properties resulting in compounded ROI. One of the developers in which we have                     CONTACT
invested has consistently grown equity at 20% or higher over 20+ years. Because real estate tends to be                INFORMATION
driven in large part by local economics a developer's skill comes from significant experience and
relationships in a specific market. A developer’s skills in finance are also a major factor in long term
                                                                                                                       Park Street Financial Group
success. The root cause of many developer’s failures is bad financial practices.
                                                                                                                       115 Park Street
When searching for new asset managers we look for developers,                                                          Suite 200
                                                                                                                       Vienna, Virginia 22180
   With a solid track record of entrepreneurial investing i.e. acquiring under-valued, under-
   performing, un-loved, properties and increasing their valuation through creative, experience                        Office: +1 703 662 1283
   guided, redevelopment and re-marketing efforts.                                                                     Fax: +1 703 562 8405
                                                                                                                       Email: info@psfgp.com
   Who focus on the Washington D.C. metro area including Northern Virginia and Baltimore,                              http://www.psfgp.com
   Maryland and mainly the primary sub-markets are Arlington, Alexandria, and Vienna Virginia.
   Who use leverage conservatively and creatively to enhance investment performance and to enable
   sufficient portfolio diversification, mitigating idiosyncratic risk.
   Who minimize performance impairment from lease defaults by following a strict tenant due-
   diligence process. Tenant due-diligence is essentially a risk/return analysis for each potential tenant
   e.g. who has a higher probability of surviving an economic downturn.
Sourcing opportunistic private real estate investments for our clients is a unique part of our practice.
We do this because we believe strongly in the long term potential and inflation mitigating aspects of
the asset class and we believe good, niche focused developers can outperform the market by a
significant margin. However, because of the inefficiencies in commercial real estate and the
complexities in structuring private investments investors must have a long-term focus. Typical
investments take 1 to 2 years to structure and then 5 to 8 years to mature. Below highlights a recent
investment in a redevelopment project located in one of the prime submarkets of Washington, D.C.


Arlington Hotel - Redevelopment
Strategy          Value Added - Capital Growth

Property Type     Hotel

Location          Arlington VA. Prime sub market of D.C.

Min Investment    $125,000

Maturity          Max 8 years with 2 optional years.

Expected ROI      25% compounded.
                                                                     Hotel rendering along Wilson Avenue.
                                                                     Building is designed to step down in the back
Term              Closing July 2011
                                                                     in order to blend better with the adjoining
                                                                     neighborhood.

This was an entrepreneurial investment in one of the fastest growing regions of the U.S. The parcel and existing
retail space are in a prime spot in Arlington, Virginia located just a short walk from a major metro line, providing
easy access to Washington D.C. and the metro area. The developer had stabilized the existing retail space which
provided sufficient cash flow to cover the existing note. Our investment entered the project during the early
redevelopment stage when significant entitlement work was underway. Entitlement risk was still there which is
typically a risk institutional investors will shun. Because of our deep knowledge of the developer, the project, and
the market we viewed the risk as a lot less significant than others would have.




- Thomas Morris
  Managing Director
INVESTOR UPDATE	

                                                                                                           2013


                            Thomas Morris is an instructor of finance and adjunct professor at George Mason University, an
                            independent finance consultant, and owner of Park Street Financial Group, a registered investment
                            advisory based in Vienna, Virginia. Thomas consults on matters of capital formation, investment strategy,
                            and valuation. He has consulted to high-net-worth individuals, start-up technology companies, asset
                            managers, and organizations operating as fiduciaries of capital. Through Park Street Financial Group
                            Thomas manages portfolios for a small group of private investors. A focus of his practice is sourcing,
                            valuing, and structuring off market real estate investments in prime sub-markets of Washington D.C.
                             At George Mason University Thomas teaches course work in real estate finance. He has also taught
                             Financial Planning to graduate medical students at George Washington University and has delivered a
series of courses on investing and risk analysis at the Ollie Osher Institute. Prior to forming Park Street Financial Group Thomas was
a Portfolio Manager with Citigroup Smith Barney where managed portfolios for individual and institutional clients.
Thomas is semi-fluent in German, and holds a Master’s of Quantitative Finance from George Washington University and a Bachelor’s
degree in Physics from Auburn University.

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Investor update 2013

  • 1. INVESTOR UPDATE 2013 Park Street Financial Group Park Street Financial Group (PSF) is a private, objective, Registered Investment Advisor which manages CONTENTS portfolios of public equities, fixed income, and commercial real estate for both individual and institutional investors. We focus on strategy, investment selection, and holistic reporting to support Our Approach the decision making process. Asset Classes Passive v Active Investing In this Investor Update I wanted to review a few of the key aspects of our approach to portfolio management and present some details on how we research equity managers, manage fixed income portfolios, and source direct real estate investments. Finding Good Managers Fixed Income Portfolios Our Approach Real Estate Investments PSF’s approach to portfolio management is modeled after top university endowment management practices. We take a long-term, methodical approach to investing and believe this will yield more consistent results. We do not invest in hot stocks nor do we attempt to time the market. Comparatively we are kind of boring when standing beside stock jockeys or the hot hedge fund of the day. Historical analysis tends to support a long-term strategy overwhelmingly. In a study by Charles Ellis1 he says that market timing represents a loosing strategy. “There is no evidence of any large institutions having anything like consistent ability to get in when the market is low and get out when the market is high. Attempts to switch between stocks and bonds, or between stocks and cash, in anticipation of market moves have been unsuccessful much more often than they have been successful.” Three basic tenets form the foundation of our investing strategy. First, we believe smart diversification helps reduce risk and achieve more consistent returns. Second, although we are skeptical of active management, we will employ active managers where we believe the chance for market outperformance is good and when our research surfaces exceptional skill. Finally, we will default to passive investing when we have the option and when good managers can’t be found. Asset Classes Separating investments into different asset classes and studying their relationships is one of the key tools that sophisticated investors use. It enables us to better leverage market knowledge to improve portfolio performance and reduce risk. A few examples of different asset classes are bonds, stocks, and real estate. We separate them into classes because as groups they behave differently from each other as economic conditions change. Figure 1 shows a list of the major asset classes we use along with their expected real returns and standard deviations. Real returns are adjusted for inflation. Asset Real Standard Class Return Deviation History is used to help understand the relationship between asset classes and determine if classes are correlated in any way. Absolute 6.0% 10% Return If two classes are positively correlated with each other then we can expect them to move in the same direction together. If they Domestic 6.0% 20% are negatively correlated then we can expect them to react Equity inversely, from each other, to changes in economic conditions. Fixed Of course between theses two extremes is zero correlation 2.0% 10% Income which says, when one asset class moves we can’t make any assumption about how the other class will move. Emerging 8.0% 25% Equity This is very valuable knowledge indeed. Imagine we want to Real invest in two investments for a long term however, they are very 6.0% 14% Assets volatile. They could gain or loose 20% of their value in any Private given year. If we combine them into a portfolio and they are Equity 11% 28% negatively correlated then their movements will have a canceling effect on each other. That is, the movement of the Figure 1. Asset Classes and their expected returns and standard portfolio will be a lot smoother (i.e. less volatile) than either one deviations. of the individual investments. 1 Charles D. Ellis, “Winning the Loser’s Game” Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing, 3d ed.
  • 2. INVESTOR UPDATE 2013 Correlations between asset classes are expressed through correlation U.S. Fixed Emerging Absolute Private Real values which are calculated using historical data. Savvy investors Equity Income Equity Return Equity Assets have learned that relying purely on history to help forecast the future is only so good. So to improve the effectiveness of using U.S. 1.00 Equity correlations as a tool we modify correlation values to reflect our assumptions of future economic, political, and market conditions. Fixed 1.00 Income For example, many investors believe as Emerging Markets become more developed they will tend to become more positively correlated Emerging 1.00 with the developed world. This will in turn reduce some of the Equity benefit of diversifying across Emerging Markets and will tend to Absolute drive up the expected volatility (aka risk) of a portfolio. Return 1.00 The table in Figure 2 shows our assumptions of changes in Private Equity 1.00 expected correlation between different asset classes. Red, up pointing arrows indicate that we expect asset class pairs to become Real 1.00 more positively correlated. Down facing green arrows indicate the Assets pair is expected to become less positively correlated. Figure 2. Expected changes in correlation between different asset class pairs. Data provided by Yale Investment Management Office. ASSET CLASS CLASS INDEX ETF Passive versus Active Investing TICKER Domestic Equity Passive investing in a market means to invest in a broad Large Cap Equity basket of securities which represent that entire market and only US Large Core Passive Russell 1000 IWB trade when a security is no longer considered a member of that market. Passive Investing means you are not trying to guess the US Large Value Active Russell 1000 Value IWB winners or losers or trying to time when to buy or when to sell. US Large Growth Active Russell 1000 Growth IWF ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) are the most common passive Small Cap Equity investment. They are are basket securities, commonly run by a US Small Cap Russell 2000 IWM computer, which simply follow market indexes. ETFs are very US Small Cap Value Russell 2000 efficient, low cost instruments. Today there are thousands of US Small Cap Growth Russell 2000 them and at least one for every index which tracks publicly Micro Cap Equity traded markets. US Micro Cap Russell Micro Cap IWC Foreign Equity Figure 3 shows the ticker symbol for each ETF we use. Each Developed Int’l Equity ETF tracks some index. For example, IWB tracks the Russell Developed Lg Cap MSCI ACWI ex. US ACWX 1000 index. SPY tracks the S&P 500 index. Developed All Cap MSCI ACWI ex. US Active investment management means a person is making Developed Small Cap FTSE Developed Sm Cap ex. US IFSM the investment decisions and is typically trying to outperform an Emerging Markets index. The investment manager relies on research and Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets EEM experience to make decisions on what and when to buy and Fixed Income then when to sell. Fixed Income Taxable Fixed Income BarCap Intermediate Govt./Credit GVI When we have the option of a passive vehicle for an asset class Cash and we choose an active manager then we are expecting that Absolute Return manager to do better than the passive vehicle. Essentially, there Absolute Return is an implicit mandate on that manager to outperform the asset class as a whole. We are expecting him/her to provide enough Absolute Return S&P 500 SPY additional value to cover his costs and give us some excess Hedged Equity return. In our final analysis we are looking for strong indicators Hedged Equity which support a managers ability to meet or exceed that Hedged Equity S&P 500 SPY mandate. If we don’t find that support we choose a passive Real Assets route. Real Assets Real Estate Cohen & Steers Realty Majors ICF Finding Good Managers Figure 3. Filters applied to Emerging Markets managers. There are literally thousands of money managers of publicly traded securities. Managers range from small one or two person shops to large teams of analysts. Some are very focused whereas others may diversify across asset types. Filtering
  • 3. INVESTOR UPDATE 2013 through this ever expanding, changing pool of managers can be very time consuming and nerve racking without a Filter Metric Description quantitative based process and good tools. Ratio of excess return divided by the variability Our process has two stages. The first stage produces an of the portfolio. Excess return is equal to the “A” list of managers for each asset class. We start with a portfolio return minus the return on a short term pool of 29,000+ public funds, segregate them by Sharpe Ratio > 40% risk free bond like a 6 month US Treasury. In investment focus and strategy and then begin to apply short its the return generated by taking on risk filters. The filters are designed to eliminate the low divided by the risk measured as volatility. quality managers. Figure 4 shows some of the metrics we use to filter Emerging Markets managers. Ratio of Managers Return to a market Sharpe Ratio - is a measure of how much additional benchmark during periods of rising markets. Upside Capture return an investment has been generating for the > 100% Measures a managers performance in up Ratio (5 Yr) amount of measured volatility. For riskier investments markets. Greater than 100% means the manager returned more than the asset class. like Emerging Markets stocks the Sharpe Ratio tends to average lower than for riskier investment types. We like this ratio because it shows good market intelligence. Ratio of Managers Return to a market Managers who can generate equal or more return and benchmark during declining periods. Measures do that with less risk tend to be smarter and execute Downside Capture < 100% a managers performance in up markets. Greater Ratio (5 Yr) better than the rest. than 100% means the manager returned more than the asset class. Upside and Downside Capture Ratio - compares a manager to his benchmark in both up and down Figure 4. Filters applied to Emerging Markets managers. markets. For us to invest with a manager we look for him to perform better than the benchmark in up markets which means his capture ratio should exceed 100% of the market. In down markets we look for managers to not loose as much and therefore drop less than 100% of the market. “A” List 2 Figure 5 below shows a small sample of an A-List of managers. This list helps us contrast an investment with its benchmark. For each metric a value is given for the investment and for the benchmark. The Trailing Return columns show which one returned more the investment or the benchmark. If the investment did better then the value is positive. If the benchmark outperformed the investment Manager Analysis A-List Annual Returns Trailing Returns Investment Ticker Return Return Return Std. Dev Std. Dev 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Symbol (YTD) (3Yr) (5Yr) (3Yr) (5Yr) Emerging Markets Eaton Vance Parametric EITEX 13.6 6.5 (0.1) 19.7 27.2 (18.1) 23.3 68.2 (51.0) 40.2 0.8 6.8 (0.7) (2.1) 7.0 iShares MSCI Emerging EEM 10.3 3.9 (1.7) 24.3 30.3 (18.8) 16.5 68.9 (48.9) 33.1 Fixed Income PIMCO Total Return PTTRX 9.1 7.7 8.9 3.4 4.3 4.2 8.8 13.8 4.8 9.1 (1.8) 3.4 11.9 (3.4) iShares Barclays Interm GVI 3.1 4.8 5.6 2.4 4.2 6.0 5.5 2.0 8.2 - Figure 5. A-List example of managers for Emerging Markets and Fixed Income asset groups. Trailing returns shows differences with the benchmark ETF for each asset class. then the value is shown in red. For example, PIMCO Total Return fund outperformed its benchmark in 2009 by 11.9 more percentage points and underperformed by 3.4 less percentage points in the previous year. Each quarter we update the A-List with new managers who have surfaced from the first stage of filtering (typically each asset class will have one to five managers in the A-List). We then look for how well our select manager is performing relative to the benchmark and the other managers. This is where we make investment decisions, whether to continue with a manager or to replace him with another manager or with an ETF for the asset class. The decision is mostly quantitative driven however, its also balanced against capital gains tax implications and whether we believe a manager will recover lost ground over the next six to twelve months. 2 Each quarters refined A-List can be downloaded from our website.
  • 4. INVESTOR UPDATE 2013 Fixed Income Portfolios For some institutional and individual clients PSF manages low risk fixed income portfolios A Few Key Points on CDs in separate accounts 3. This practice focuses on strategies which maximize return while We only buy CDs issued by FDIC meeting the policy driven risk mandates of treasury cash equivalent accounts, reserve insured banks funds, foundations, endowments, and some trust accounts. We use “traditional” CDs which have Fixed income investments like certificates of deposit (CDs), treasuries, municipal bonds, fixed interest rates. In order to maximize FDIC insurance and corporate bonds typically pay a dividend and then return the principal at maturity. As we stay under the $250K FDIC with all investments there is risk. All fixed income investments decline in value as interest insurance limit per insured bank. rates rise. Therefore, the risk is in selling when rates are rising rather than holding to maturity. In addition, they all have loss of principal risk except for those which are secured by the Federal Government namely CDs and treasuries. As is evident in the markets today even U.S State municipalities can default on debt. Our practice focuses on strategies which meet a “preservation of principal” policy requirement. This restricts our investments to “traditional” CDs and U.S. treasuries. However, even with a limited selection of investments, higher returns can still be engineered by spreading investments over longer maturities. We call this “maturity laddering” and its an effective strategy when cash requirements are well understood. Following is a fixed income laddering example which demonstrates this point. Condominium Reserve Fund - Strategy 1YR CD 2YR CD 3YR CD 4YR CD 5YR CD Bank Invested Invested $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $300,000 $300,000 GE MONEY BANK $154,175 Yield Range .72% - .845% .97%-1.1% 1.31%-1.48% 1.62%-1.73% 1.88%-2.29% GOLDMAN SACHS BK $196,453 GE CAP FINL INC $181,706 Client: Condominium Reserve Fund. $147,145 GE CAPITAL RETAIL BK Fund: $1.4 million ALLY BK $47,931 DISCOVER BANK $168,343 Results: Using laddering we achieved a 1.47% annualized return versus the .25% return they had been receiving in a money market fund. AMER EXP CENT BK $51,426 MORTON CMNTY $8,568 Strategy: Based on the results of a current reserve study we determined the annual cash requirements for capital expenditures over the next 5 years. We then laddered the investments REPUBLIC BANK $10,589 across CDs with maturities ranging from 1 to 5 years in the amounts shown above. BARCLAYS BANK NA $48,521 For this account we purchased over 1000 small CDs. It sounds like a lot but the yield on smaller BMW NA $52,607 denominated CDs is typically slightly higher than for the larger ones. And there are no transaction OHIO VALLEY BANK $8,322 fees. LEHMAN COML BANK $37,306 Note: While 1.47% is not a lot of return it is six times what was being achieved. Using this strategy MIDFIRST BANK $11,314 over time through different interest rate regimes does maximize return while not compromising principal. CAPITAL ONE $95,917 Real Estate Investments A strategic focus of our group is sourcing and managing indirect and direct investments in commercial real estate for both capital growth and income needs 4. We focus on finding, building relationships with, and ultimately investing in highly skilled real estate developers. Finding such developers with the solid financial practices we seek is very hard indeed. Most are small private companies who do not advertise themselves. 3 Within clients diversified investment accounts we also invest in fixed income. However, in those cases the investment is part of a balanced risk/return strategy that does not typically carry a mandate to preserve principal. Therefore, we pursue a little higher return by investing with select managers like PIMCO. These managers invest in all different types of bonds like corporates, munis, and other countries government issued bonds. 4As with fixed income, within clients diversified investment accounts we also invest in real estate, typically through REITs or funds of REITs. In these accounts REITs are used strategically to balance and to diversify.
  • 5. INVESTOR UPDATE 2013 Through creative development and re-marketing efforts skilled developers of real estate can add significant value to properties resulting in compounded ROI. One of the developers in which we have CONTACT invested has consistently grown equity at 20% or higher over 20+ years. Because real estate tends to be INFORMATION driven in large part by local economics a developer's skill comes from significant experience and relationships in a specific market. A developer’s skills in finance are also a major factor in long term Park Street Financial Group success. The root cause of many developer’s failures is bad financial practices. 115 Park Street When searching for new asset managers we look for developers, Suite 200 Vienna, Virginia 22180 With a solid track record of entrepreneurial investing i.e. acquiring under-valued, under- performing, un-loved, properties and increasing their valuation through creative, experience Office: +1 703 662 1283 guided, redevelopment and re-marketing efforts. Fax: +1 703 562 8405 Email: info@psfgp.com Who focus on the Washington D.C. metro area including Northern Virginia and Baltimore, http://www.psfgp.com Maryland and mainly the primary sub-markets are Arlington, Alexandria, and Vienna Virginia. Who use leverage conservatively and creatively to enhance investment performance and to enable sufficient portfolio diversification, mitigating idiosyncratic risk. Who minimize performance impairment from lease defaults by following a strict tenant due- diligence process. Tenant due-diligence is essentially a risk/return analysis for each potential tenant e.g. who has a higher probability of surviving an economic downturn. Sourcing opportunistic private real estate investments for our clients is a unique part of our practice. We do this because we believe strongly in the long term potential and inflation mitigating aspects of the asset class and we believe good, niche focused developers can outperform the market by a significant margin. However, because of the inefficiencies in commercial real estate and the complexities in structuring private investments investors must have a long-term focus. Typical investments take 1 to 2 years to structure and then 5 to 8 years to mature. Below highlights a recent investment in a redevelopment project located in one of the prime submarkets of Washington, D.C. Arlington Hotel - Redevelopment Strategy Value Added - Capital Growth Property Type Hotel Location Arlington VA. Prime sub market of D.C. Min Investment $125,000 Maturity Max 8 years with 2 optional years. Expected ROI 25% compounded. Hotel rendering along Wilson Avenue. Building is designed to step down in the back Term Closing July 2011 in order to blend better with the adjoining neighborhood. This was an entrepreneurial investment in one of the fastest growing regions of the U.S. The parcel and existing retail space are in a prime spot in Arlington, Virginia located just a short walk from a major metro line, providing easy access to Washington D.C. and the metro area. The developer had stabilized the existing retail space which provided sufficient cash flow to cover the existing note. Our investment entered the project during the early redevelopment stage when significant entitlement work was underway. Entitlement risk was still there which is typically a risk institutional investors will shun. Because of our deep knowledge of the developer, the project, and the market we viewed the risk as a lot less significant than others would have. - Thomas Morris Managing Director
  • 6. INVESTOR UPDATE 2013 Thomas Morris is an instructor of finance and adjunct professor at George Mason University, an independent finance consultant, and owner of Park Street Financial Group, a registered investment advisory based in Vienna, Virginia. Thomas consults on matters of capital formation, investment strategy, and valuation. He has consulted to high-net-worth individuals, start-up technology companies, asset managers, and organizations operating as fiduciaries of capital. Through Park Street Financial Group Thomas manages portfolios for a small group of private investors. A focus of his practice is sourcing, valuing, and structuring off market real estate investments in prime sub-markets of Washington D.C. At George Mason University Thomas teaches course work in real estate finance. He has also taught Financial Planning to graduate medical students at George Washington University and has delivered a series of courses on investing and risk analysis at the Ollie Osher Institute. Prior to forming Park Street Financial Group Thomas was a Portfolio Manager with Citigroup Smith Barney where managed portfolios for individual and institutional clients. Thomas is semi-fluent in German, and holds a Master’s of Quantitative Finance from George Washington University and a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from Auburn University.