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Challenge
&
Possibilities





Prepared
by
Terry
Garrett
(see
last
slide
for
contact
info)

This
presentation
is
directed
to
traditional
media

  players,
primarily
print
publishers.

The
ideas
and
concepts
represent
a
synthesis
of

  the
thoughts,
opinions
and
research,
which

  many
have
contributed.

I
hope
this
provides
an
overview
of
the
current

   situation
that
leads
to
quick
and
furious

   invention
and
innovation.

There
have
been
many
good
ideas
floated
by

   earnest
efforts
of
Newspaper
Next,
Pew

   Center
and
AJR.

There’s
too
much
toe
in
the
water
and
not

   enough
baptism
for
implementation
of
those

   ideas.


Fairly
simple
and
stable


• You
knew
how
the
game
was
played.

 

• You
acted
accordingly.

 

• Supply
and
demand
were
fairly
stable.

 

• Mild
disruptions
produced
new
ideas

 

and
you
could
adapt
without
much

effort
or
pain.

iterate
intuitive

                                       relationships…

Too
many
levels
happening
             aggregate
seamless
e‐
                                       services…reinvent

  simultaneously:

Drying
up
of
       sticky
users…HA!


  financing,
deep
budget
cutbacks,

  disappearing
sales
and
audience…

You
don’t
know
what
to
do.

•  
You
react
constantly
and
lose

   sense
of
being
proactive.

•  
You
want
time
to
sort
it
out.

•  
You
have
to
try
new
things,
but

   what?


•  
WTF?

Market
driven
economy


 
 over
past
fifty
years




          Consumer
spending
73%
of
US
economy



Drives
advertising
spending
and
proliferation

of
media
channels
and
players

Consumer
spending
rose
rapidly

                    AND

Advertising
spending
followed
and
increased

             10X
pre‐1980
levels…




Media
channels
became
over‐saturated
with

                 players

Mature
players
profit
harvest,

 but
make
less
investment
in

 content
quality,
slower
growth,

 lose
market
share
gradually.


Start‐ups
show
heady
growth,

  invest
in
marketing,
make
less

  profits
than
incumbent

  players…

•
Move
from
gorging
on
the
“media
buffet”
to
post‐
  consumption
fatigue,
over‐whelmed,
over

  stimulated,
too
much
of
a
good
thing

•
Diminished
engagement,
indifference
set
in…


Then
consumers
begin

•
Mental
sorting
of
most
media
channels
and

  players
into
‘all
about
the
same’,
lumpy
mass


 Or
into
a
slimmer
‘must
have’
niches

1908
average
newspaper
costs
5¢

(for
news
content,
pre‐mass
advertising
era)

  2008
average
newspaper
costs
50¢

      Adjust
1908
costs
to
2008

         for
equivalent
price:

                                         $2.67
per
copy

           In
100
years,
News
content

           was
devalued
in
price
400%

Content
             Device
          Device
costs
               Perception
of
content


TV
                  TV
sets
         *Relative
                  FREE
(except
cable)


Radio
               Multi‐sets
      Relative
                   FREE


Daily
newspaper
 Paper
               Nominal
recurring
          Paid,
but
necessary


Magazines
           Paper
           Nominal
‘+’
recurring
 Paid,
necessary
luxury


Other
print
         Paper
           None
recurring
             FREE




* Expense of acquiring device was relative to consumer’s income
Two
devices
can
deliver
all
forms
of

    media
anywhere,
anytime    


                             

                                 VE

 Perception:
FREE
content
       Device
and
service
Cost:

                                 relative
to
consumer’s
income

▼ Traditional
media
players
bundled
content

 

 (many
articles
became
daily
packaged
product)

▼ Web
unbundles
content
packages
[atomizes
it]

 

▼ Web
players
[search,
aggregators,

 

 reconstructors]
re‐bundle
content
into
new

 packages
under
their
brand,
which
dilutes

 originator’s
brand
based
on
single
package
idea

▼  oogle,
Yahoo
atomizes
advertising
and
change

 G
 price/value
metric
and
buy/sell
methodology.

•  New
players
capture
new
web
ad

   income,
device
and
distribution
income

   and
reduce
the
income
potential
for

   traditional
media
players…who
lack

   ability
to
scale.

•  Consumers
get
a
freer
free
ride
     Tell
me

                                           something
I

                                           don’t
know!

New
models
for
content
and

advertising
are
urgently
necessary.


There
is
no
going
back.


Major
overhaul
is
required.



1  Will
consumers
pay
a
price
above
FREE
for

    news
content?

2  Will
ad
sales
alone
yield
enough
income
to

    support
a
news
operation?

3  Does
‘quality
of
content’
matter
to

    consumers?

4  How
do
consumers
participate
in
creating
the

    context
of
news?

5  Does
brand
of
news
content
provider
matter

    to
consumers?

6  How
important
is
distribution
of
content
to

    consumers?

Name
at
least
three
consumer
items

that
were
once
paid,
but
are
now
FREE.



           No
fair
saying
news
content,
or

           anything
related
to
the
web.

FREE
checking

                                                as
a
loss
leader

                 Free
checking
accounts
        to
writing
bad

                                                mortgages?





The
point
is
there
are
few
instances
of
converting
consumer

products
or
services
to
free.


The
reason
is
obvious,
it’s
a
damn
tough
economic
model
to

make
work.

The
problem
is
that
it’s
been
priced
at
FREE
by

traditional
players
for
so
long
now
they
believe
it’s

worthless
and
consumers
expect
it.

  Traditional
players
are
motivated
to
think
news

  content
has
value
now,
because
the
advertising
sales

  rug
has
been
pulled
out
from
under
them
and
online

  prices
suck.



  
They
haven’t
figured
out
the
new
value
created
for

  content
when
consumers,
bloggers
and
others
rate
it,

  share
it,
comment
on
it,
re‐bundle
it.

As
a
matter
of

  fact,
they
have
resisted
this
practice
when
they

  should
work
it
and
see
the
value.

It
creates
context

  for
news
consumption.
News
content





       Commodity
                                   Is
this
true?



“Undifferentiated
quality”
             o News
content
publishers
have
been

                                          

“All
info
is
equal”
                    told

and
some
believe
that
news
is
a

“Info
=
News”
                          commodity
that
is
valueless
in
and
of

                                        itself.


                                        o It
is
valuable
only as
a
means
to

                                         

                                        attract
audience
and
sell
advertising.

Even
commodities
have
value
at
a
price
above

                    FREE.



 gold
 
 silver

 soybeans


corn


 

copper
 

 


pork
bellies
(yum,
yum)

How
so?

Commodities
are
things
fairly
simple
to
identify

  and
value
based
on
simpler
supply
and
demand

  variables.

News
content
is
rapidly
becoming
more
complex.


  It
is
based
on
thoughts
and
ideas
about
events

  and
things,
and
subjectively
valued.

Commodity
is
the
wrong
noun
to
associate
with

  news.

It
oversimplifies
its
true
meaning
and

  value.

Value
depends
upon
how
well
news
is:

▼  onceptualized

 C

▼  ontextualized

 C

▼  here
and
how
it’s
delivered

 W

▼  hen
it’s
delivered

 W

▼  redible
source

 C
FREE
rattlers,
all
you
can
eat!





“I
don’t
think
I
can
eat
all
this

     on
me
lunch
break”

What
gives
them
more
enjoyment
for
less
time

 invested?


▼  ublishers
must
know
the
utility
of
news
for

 P
 consumers
[think
Newspaper
Next
‘Jobs
to
be
done’
list]

▼  elp
them
find
it—make
it
readily
available

 H
 via
computer
and
mobile

▼  elp
them
share
it,
rate
it,
evaluate
it
in
a
new

 H
 context—connected
consumption
factor

Consumers
share
content
they
value
            Connected
consumption
helps

with
selected
others
or
to
the
commons.
       them
filter
and
discover
content.



News
content
providers
must
exploit
and
leverage
this
to
great
advantage
for
all.



     Did
you

     hear…?




      Bloggers

                                               Think

                                                             ‐like

      Consumers

      News
                             X

      Aggregators

      ‘Link
economy’
     Devices



                                                         strategy

                            and

                        Sharing
apps

▼  dds
to
content
value
by
providing
a
new
measure

   A
of
community‐propagated
context…community
tells

one
another
what
the
news
is
worth
and
why.


▼  ot
fixed,
but
constantly
mutable
and
elastic.

 N

▼  ontext
and
content
are
no
longer
one‐way,

 C

   Editor/writer



consumer.


▼  hich
means,
it
alters
the
nature
and
value
of

  W
content
in
a
meaningful
and
positive
way
for

consumers
and
content
providers

From
the
Pew
Center’s
State
of
the
News
Media
2008
report


  “A
survey
of
journalists
from
different
media
...
Majorities

  think
such
things
as
journalists
writing
blogs,
the
ranking
of

  stories
on
their
Web
sites,
citizens
posting
comments
or

  ranking
stories,
even
citizen
news
sites,
are
making

  journalism
better
—
a
perspective
hard
to
imagine
even
a

  few
years
ago.
These
new
technologies
are
seen
as
less
a

  threat
to
values
or
a
demand
on
time
than
a
way
to

  reconnect
with
audiences.
News
people
also
are
less
anxious

  about
credibility,
the
focus
of
concern
a
few
years
ago.”

Free
content
       Free
&
Paid
   Paid
content



 Donor
supported
       No
ads
         No
ads




  Ad
supported
         Ads
too
       Ads
too





Free
content
       Free
&
Paid
   Paid
content

A
Word
from
Our

    Sponsor

Mass
advertising
model

                              Created

                              advertising

                              to
a
mass
       Targeted
advertising

                              audience
               model

                                                Created
bid
pricing
and

                                 Innovation
    self‐admin
advertising
to
a

                                                very
targeted
audience.




  Joseph
Pulitzer's

  New
York
World
1890

  Adjusted
to
2007
dollars
                    Google’s
World
2007

  Net Income $916
million
                     Net
Income
$5
billion

Google’s
innovation
reshapes
all
advertising‐
 based
media,
not
just
online.

It
is
disrupting
an
established
marketplace
and

   converting
vast
sums
of
market
share
to
itself.


The
magnitude
of
operating
income
at
5
times

  the
level
of
the
previously
dominating
model

  shows
it’s
power—a
massive
reshaping

  strategy.

The
nature
of
the
disruption
is
so
severe
and

  share
conversion
so
quick
that
it
will
wipe
out

  a
significant
number
of
traditional
media

  players,
including
major
ad
agencies.

Players
need
an

Entirely
new
approach
to
selling,
distribution
and

              business
administration. 

                  THINK
MANY

     $mall$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$treams$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


                             vs.
                               


                           $$$

•  Banner
ads:
some
income
but
not
enough
to

   support
an
organization

•  Classifieds:
ditto

•  Affiliate:
lots
of
room
for
growth

•  Mobile:
nascent
stage
with
lots
of
upside

Unbelievable

 this
has
been
ignored
by
traditional
players.
                                             


Can
be:

  1.  Locally‐dominated
or
niche‐dominated


  2.  Networked
globally


  3.  High‐utility
for
consumers
and
advertisers


  4.  Integrated
well
online
and
with
mobile

But
brand
value
is
generated
differently

than
before.


Connected
consumption
plus
atomized

distribution
play
a
big
role
in
brand

value.

A
lot
about
brand
worth
based
on
the
value
they

receive.

• 
Make
it
easy
for
them
to
convey
that

 

information
and
help
them
spread
the
word.

• 
Consumers
can
promote
or
kill
a
brand
in
quick

 

fashion.

• 
The
more
transparency
and
the
more
players

 

facilitate
consumer
communication
about
their

products
and
services,
the
higher
the
brand
value

probability.

 New
value
chain
based
on
one
of
the
six

 models
selected

 Quality
of
content
matters
more
or
less

 depending
on
the
model
selected

 Ad
income
from
many
small
streams

 Web
is
the
hub
for
content
management

 and
distribution

 Connected
consumption
is
the
new

 brand
driver

Traditional
players
have
adapted
and

adopted
practices—poorly
in
most

cases.


It’s
urgent
to
be
innovative
instead.


That
demands
new
models
based

upon
being
a
shaper,
not
a
follower.

With
an
organizational
culture
that
fosters:

  self‐responsibility

  creativity

  enthusiasm

  experimentation

  innovation

  integrity

  cooperation
and
direct
communication

  traditional
players
have
a
chance.

Gotta
make

the
donuts





              If
I
want
your

              opinion
by
God
I’ll

                                     Traditional

              give
it
to
you!

                                     Players

Wanna
go
for
a
run

after
we
finish

coding
that
new

feature?


 I’m
creating
a
complete
analysis
of
each
model
(6)

including
requirements
for
each
value
chain
node
and
the

relationship
between
them.

Additionally,
I’ll
create
pro
forma

budgets
for
a
few
of
the
more
promising
models
that
apply
to

transitioning
players.



 I’m
convinced
that
traditional
players
must
start
this

transitional
process
with
the
attitude
that
says,
“If
we
started

a
new
media
company
today,
what
would
it
look
like?”


 It’s
the
only
approach
that
removes
the
bias
of
which

resources
are
valuable
and
which
aren’t.

If
you’re
interested
in
learning
more
about

what
you
can
do
by
reviewing
the
analysis
of

the
models
mentioned,
please
contact
me:

Terry
Garrett

Garrett.tm@gmail.com

415.302.9583

Management
and
Web
Consulting:
Business
As
If

Content
Management
Systems:
Oasis
Web
Logistics

http://bizasif.com
and
http://oasiscms.com


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