The business impact of MOOCs

Transform to the power of digitalThe possible business impact of MOOCsTimo Kos@timokos/timokos@KhanAcademyNLwww.khanacademy.nltimo.kos@capgemini.comtimo@khanacademy.nlCapgemini Consultingmarketleader educationKhan Academy NLVoorzitter stichtingsbestuur

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I)A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now cMOOC)3David Wiley (Brigham Young University)George Siemens (Athabasca University)Stephen Downes (National Research CouncelCanada)Proponents of connectivism use the web to explore the possibilitiesof open & social (‘networked’) learning

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)B. Pioneers (2011-2012) of free massive open online classes (now xMOOCs)4Salman KhanProf. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun(Stanford)Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller(Stanford)Prof. Anant Agarwal(MIT)These proponents use the web to provide traditionally structured online courses for free andaim to ‘disrupt higher education and open it up to the masses’.

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.xMOOC platforms: Technology start-ups building new digital distribution channelsfor ‘open’ online education...5Founded: April 2012Founder: Koller & Nge(Stanford professors)Company: For profitFunding: $22 million(Venture Capitalist)# Universities: 62# Courses: 323# Topics: All academic fields# Students: 3.5 millionCertification: Yes (most)Proctored examination: Yes,(5 accredited courses + partnershipwith ProctorU)Open Source: No (licenced)Founded: May 2012Founders: MIT & HarvardCompany: Not- for-profitFunding: $60 million(Harvard / MIT: 30 each)# Universities: 12# Courses: 20# topics: ICT, Engineering, Health#students: 700.000Certification: YesProctoree examination: Yes(450 CBT locations in 110 countriesvia partnership with Pearson VUE)Open Source: Partly (licenced)Founded: January 2012Founder: Sebastian Thrun(ex Stanford professor)Company: For profitFunding: $15 million(Venture Capital)# Universities: none# Courses: 22# Topics: ICT# Students: 800.000Certification: YesProctored examination: Yes(4000 CBT locations in 170 countriesvia partnership with Pearson VUE)Open Source: No (licenced)

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.05101520#1 - Harvard University#3 - MIT#4 - University of California- Berkley#27 - University of Toronto#35 - The University of Texas at Austin#63 - McGill University#64 - Australian National University#91 - Rice University#101-150 - École Polyt. Lausanne#201-300 - Delft University of Tech.#301-400 - Georgetown University-# - Wellesley CollegeNumber of courses announced or offeredCertificate after completionOfficial on-campus courseNon-official courseTextbook digital available0 5 10 15 20Stanford University - #2California Institute of Technology - #6Princeton University - #7Columbia University - #8University of Pennsylvania - #14University of California, San Diego - #15University of Washington - #16Johns Hopkins University - #17University of California, San Francisco - #18University of Wisconsin–Madison - #19The University of Tokyo - #20University of Michigan - #22University of Illinois at Urbana-Ch. - #25University of Toronto - #27University of Minnesota - #29Northwestern University - #30University of Colorado Boulder - #33Duke University - #36University of Maryland, College Park - #38The University of British Columbia -#39The University of North Carolina - #41University of Copenhagen - #44University of California, Irvine -#45Pennsylvania State University - #49Vanderbilt University - #50NO certificate after compl.Accredited course.. partnering with top universtities of the Shanghai Ranking (ARWU)(25 from the top 50, including 7 from the top 10)

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.…experimenting with online didactics from other successfull open education start-ups…7Founded: 2006Founder: Salman KhanCompany: non-profitFunding: $ 10 million(Philantropists)# Courses: 3000+ weblectures(200 million + views)# Topics: Math,Science,HistoryArt, etc..# Students: ca. 8 millionCertification: NOProctoreed examination: NORevenue Model: Non-profitOpen Source: YesFounded: 2009Founder: Phillip SchmidtCompany: non-profitFunding: unknown (Philantropists)# Courses: 6 schools on openlearning# Topics: Open Data,EducationWebcraftSocial InnovationMathematical Future# Students: 30.000Certification: NOProctoreed examination: NORevenue Model: Non-profitOpen Source: YesFounded: 2011Founders: Zach Sims and RyanBubinskiCompany: for-profitFunding: $ 12,5 million (VentureCapital)# Courses: 5# Topics: JavascriptHTML & CSSPython,RubyJQuery# Students: 550.000Certification: NOProctoreed examination: NORevenue Model: Referral fee’sOpen Source: No (licenced)

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.… creating possibilities to pursue new monetization strategies and create new businessmodels for higher education… license model: a share of gross revenue between platform provider and universities offering courses hosted on theplatform for tuition paid degee programs or fees for additional services to students (e.g. coaching) Administrative fees: for certification on proctored exam locations Recruitment fees: from corporations for recruiting talented students Premium/Fremium model: free and upgraded paid versions of the MOOCs and services, resembling the ‘freemium’and ‘premium’ payment models of other internet services Advertisement: monetizing on the scale and social characteristics of users of the platform.9

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.Given the unprecedented scale of MOOCs and the global reputation of the partneruniversities of the xMOOC platforms, we set out to answer the following question :11are MOOCs a HYPE or a DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION?Review boardDrs. Anka MulderProf. Dr. Marc VermeulenIntervieweesDrs. Paul Rullmann (TUD)Prof. dr. Simone Buitendijk (UL)Prof. dr. Elmer Sterken ()Prof. dr. Ed Brinksma (UvT)Drs. Agnita Mur (HL)Drs. Gerard van Drielen (HR)Dr. Geleyn Meijer (HvA)Dr. Wilfred Mijnhardt (EUR)Drs. Tom Abel (UvA)OpdrachtgeverDrs Paul RullmannDrs. Anka MulderCasestudy ‘Business impact of MOOCs’as part of 3 year research with MITBusiness plan Online Education

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.First we analyzed xMOOC platforms from Gartners technology hypecycle perspective …12(Smart) BrowsersSocial MediaYou TubeWeb Cams… and concluded that MOOCs do not fit the characteristics of a technology hype(although the media attention they receive do fit the characteristics of a media hype)

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.The theory ofʺdisruptive innovationʺ(Open) Online Education viewed from Christensens’s disruptive innovation perspective...„A process by which a product or servicetakes root initially in simple applicationsat the bottom of a market and thenrelentlessly moves ‘up market’, eventuallydisplacing established competitors”‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen,Harvard Business SchoolAuthor of Disrupting Class (2008) and TheInnovative University (2011)Low ranked(under) graduatedegree programsHigh ranked (under)graduate degreeprogramsTop ranked (under) graduatedegree programs

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.The value propositons of the different types of online education compared:14Traditional education(on-campus, f2f)OpenCourseWare xMOOCs Online (only)EducationAccessibility Selective/inclusive: (high) tuition,admission requirementsFree and open access for everyone Free and open access for everyone Selective/inclusive: (high) tuition,admission requirementsInstruction / classes Offline(inflexible schedule)Online courses, web-lectures &digital learning materialsOnline classes &digital learning materialsOnline courses(flexible schedule),Interaction betweenstudentsYes, mainly f2f & off-line No, self learners Yes,peer-to-peer via onlinelearning platforms and socialmedia and ‘MOOC-meetups’Yes, online learning platforms,virtual classrooms, and socialmediaQuality Control Yes, Accreditation Yes: for contentNo for processNo, only by reputation(professor / ranking)Yes, AccreditationInteraction betweenstudens & facultyYes, (mainly ) off-line & on-campus No Yes, online learning platforms andsocial mediaYes, online learning platforms andsocial mediaExercises Yes, both individual and in groups Yes, as static teaching materials(no student feedback)Yes, online excercises (quizes) withautomated answers & feedbackYes, revised by teacher/facultystaffExams Yes, on campus & graded by facultystaffYes, as static teaching materials(no grading)Yes, online & computer graded orby peer-gradingYes, online and graded by facultystaffIdentity verification Yes, on campus No Yes: proctored exams in computerbased testing centresYes, through online or on campusidentification processDeadlines Yes, fixed terms (semesters,trimesters)No Yes, dedicated course periodsduring the year as well as deadlinesfor homework & examsYes, several starting dates duringthe year as well as deadlines forhomework & exams during couresCertificate Yes, Accredited No Yes, non-formal certificate ofcompletion (by professor a/o UniX)Yes, AccreditedDegree Yes, Accredited No No (not yet) Yes, Accredited

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.The future? Early adoptors are positioning themselves for a new and truly global marketfor massive (low price) formal certificate & degree awarding online education15Traditional universitiesTimeMarketsegmentscMOOCFor Profit UniversitiesSelf Learner Population(badges)Certificate seeking(non-formal)Degree &Certificateseeking(formal)F2FCampus(formal)

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.Which will have impact on on the long term financial outlook of incumbant universities16Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA, US Public Finance, Sept 2012

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.So are MOOCs a disrputive innovation? YES171. MOOCs are distributed through new digital channels with a potential of attracting millions of visitors,creating valuable digital channels with the potential of new (low price) revenu models that are common inthe internet economy (scale now, monetize later).2. MOOCs serve a global mass market with a new value proposition that till recently was not available oraffordable for large groups of students around the world.3. Some of the MOOC courses provide the same content as on campus courses, and claim to be of thesame academic quality.4. MOOCs are not equal to a campus education, but a stripped down version targeted at astudentpopulation who do not need the full value offered at the high end of the market5. MOOCs are produced using widely accepted internet technology which enable any lecturer with a highacademic reputation to produce a MOOC by themselve and reach a potentially unlimited number ofstudents at a fraction of the cost per student that are needed for delivering traditional (online) universitylectures.6. MOOCs offer a supplement to on-campus courses and are already being integrated in credited(bachelor) degree programs.7. MOOCs are replacing parts of the regular campus curriculum and thereby start to alter the businessmodel and operating model of brick-and-mortar universities (leading to speciliazation betweenuniversities).

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.Nyenrode BusinessUniversityMITTUDStanfordUniversiteitLeidenMarket Segments – focus versus motive19AcademicProfessionalProfitNot-for-profitFocusofqualificationMotiveDuisenbergSchool of FinancePhoenixUniversityKaplanUniversityNCOIUniversity ofLiverpoolOUHS InhollandUniversidadEuropea de MadridAvansINSEADLiberty UNTIDeVryUniversity of SouthernCaliforniaUniversity ofNotre Dame

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.Nyenrode BusinessUniversityMITTU DelftStanfordUniversiteitLeidenWhere do the MOOC Platforms fit in the market for online higher education?20Academic(selective)Professional(inclusive)For-ProfitNot-for-profitFocusofqualificationMotiveDuisenbergSchool of FinancePhoenixUniversityKaplanUniversityNCOIUniversity ofLiverpoolOpenUniversityHS InhollandUniversidadEuropea de MadridAvansINSEADLiberty UNTIDeVryUniversity ofNotre Dame

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.Nyenrode BusinessUniversityDuisenbergSchool of FinanceUniversidadEuropea de MadridMITDelft University ofTechnologyStanfordErasmus UniversityRotterdamWhen the rise of Massive Online Education is viewed as a disruptive innovation,an early adoption strategy for online education differs per market-segment21Academic(selective)Professional(inclusive)ProfitNot-for-profitFocusofqualificationMotivePhoenixUniversityKaplanUniversityNCOIAmsterdam Universityof Applied ScienceOpen UniversitySaxion University ofApplied ScienceLEVERAGEGLOBALREPUTATIONADD. PROFNETWORKSERVICESLOCALLYAPPLIEDSCIENCESLOW PRICEFIGHTMARKET

Copyright © 2013 Capgemini Consulting. All rights reserved.Transform to the power of digitalTimo Kos, Principal ConsultantMarket Leader Education & Employability NLTimo KosPhone: +31 (0)30 6897540Mobile: +31 (0)6 47924140timo.kos@capgemini.comhttp://linkedin.com/in/timokoshttp://twitter.com/timokos

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The business impact of MOOCs

von timokos am 26. Februar 2013

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