Talk on the Future of mobility drawing on some of the insights from the Future Agenda programme

1. The
Future
of
Mobility
22 September 2010
Tim
Jones
-­‐
Programme
Director
:m.jones@futureagenda.org

2. World’s
First
Global
Open
Foresight
programme
Looking
out
10
years
at
the
big
issues
for
2020
50
workshops
in
25
countries
with
2,000
people
Engaged
with
>20,000
people
in
147
countries
52
major
probable
insights
on
the
next
decade
The
Future
Agenda
Programme

3. Four
Certain:es
for
2020

4. Imbalanced
Popula;on
Growth
Certain;es
By
2020
we
will
add
another
700m
people
to
the
planet,
most
in
places
least
able
to
accommodate
them

5. Key
Resource
Constraints
Certain;es
We
will
see
economic,
physical
and
poli;cal
shortages
of
key
materials
that
will
bring
about
fundamental
changes
in
how
we
live

6. Ubiquitous
Data
Access
Certain;es
We
will
be
connected
everywhere
-­‐
everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
network
connec;on
will
have
one

7. Asian
Wealth
ShiL
Certain;es
The
centre
of
gravity
of
global
wealth
shiLs
East
with
decreased
influence
for
the
US
and
Europe

8. Six
Clusters
of
Future
Insights

9. Health

10. Diabesity
Health
With
diabetes
consuming
5%
of
GDP
a
combina;on
of
fat
taxa;on,
pa;ent
data
mining
and
personal
budgets
will
play
a
role
in
stabilising
the
obesity
epidemic

11. Global
Pandemics
Health
We
are
likely
to
see
2
to
3
major
pandemics
start
in
regions
with
limited
public
healthcare
and
rapidly
spread
globally
and
so
demand
fast
response

12. Hal;ng
Alzheimer's
Health
Stopping
mental
degrada;on
from
Alzheimer’s
makes
quality
ageing
more
possible
by
improving
cogni;on
and
slowing
the
rate
of
decline

13. Wealth

14. Richer
Poorer
Wealth
Widening
differences
in
wealth
between
and
within
urban
and
rural
communi;es
extends
the
gap
between
rich
and
poor
-­‐
but
they
s;ll
need
each
other

15. Mobile
Money
Wealth
Proven
systems
built
on
mobile
connec;vity
and
increasingly
flexible
means
of
exchange
provide
a
;pping
point
in
the
shiL
towards
the
cashless
society

16. Third
Global
Currency
Wealth
The
economic
rise
of
Asia
and
the
need
for
an
alterna;ve
to
the
US
dollar
as
the
world’s
reserve
currency
produces
a
parallel
broad-­‐basket
Asian
Currency
Unit

17. Happiness

18. Ac;ve
Elderly
Happiness
A
wealthier,
healthier
older
genera;on
increasingly
lead
more
ac;ve
lives
including
3rd
genera;on
careers
and
becoming
more
poli;cally
involved

19. Choosing
God
Happiness
The
increasing
fragmenta;on
of
society
and
looser
connec;on
between
religion
and
the
state
sees
more
of
us
turning
to
God
to
help
define
who
we
are

20. Switching
Off
Happiness
Being
disconnected
in
an
always
connected
world
leads
to
virtual
cocoons
at
home
and
real
physical
solitude
becomes
an
op;on
only
for
the
rich

21. Security

22. Credible
Sources
Security
Greater
informa;on
overload
moves
our
focus
from
simply
accessing
data
to
include
the
source
of
the
insight
to
dis;nguish
what
we
trust

23. Solar
Sunrise
Security
Increasing
governmental
focus
on
energy
security
and
climate
change
drives
the
uptake
of
large-­‐scale
solar
as
the
leading
renewable
supply

24. Water
Management
Security
Advanced
water
purifica;on,
irriga;on
and
desalina;on
technologies
are
used
to
help
communi;es
to
manage
the
rising
supply
/
demand
imbalance

25. Locality

26. Mega
City
States
Locality
Increasing
compe;;on
between
ci;es
over-­‐rides
na;onal
priori;es
as
mayors
lead
bold
ini;a;ves
to
place
their
ci;es
at
the
forefront
of
the
global
stage

27. Local
Foods
Locality
Increased
transparency
on
food
availability
and
security,
land
use
and
eco-­‐literacy
accelerate
mass
consump;on
of
locally
grown
and
processed
foods

28. Migra;on
Magnets
Locality
Immigra;on
is
part
of
economic
development
strategies
and,
especially
in
low
fer;lity
economies,
na;ons
posi;on
themselves
to
a_ract
migrants

29. Mobility

30. Asian
Avia;on
Mobility
Led
by
more
tourists
and
steady
growth
in
cargo
transporta;on,
Asian
avia;on
places
more
orders
and
becomes
the
largest
air
market
in
the
world

32. Drone
Wars
Security
Intelligent
UAVs
choose
their
vic;ms
themselves
as
the
race
for
more
focused
military
influence
leads
to
the
prolifera;on
of
assassina;on
tools

33. Chinese
Trains
Mobility
China,
the
pacese_er
for
change
in
inter-­‐urban
transport,
is
inves;ng
over
$1
trillion
expanding
its
rail
network
to
120,000km
by
2020

34. People
Tracking
Mobility
The
acceptance
of
being
tracked
by
your
mobile
is
accelerated
by
;cket-­‐less
transport
systems,
increased
surveillance
and
successful
loca;on-­‐based
services

35. Dense
Ci;es
Locality
As
urban
migra;on
increases,
efficient,
densely
populated
ci;es
not
distributed
op;ons
are
the
blueprints
for
more
sustainable
places
to
live

37. Less
Energy
Wealth
Consumers
are
incen;vised
to
use
significantly
less
energy
as
escala;ng
growth
in
carbon
emissions
force
u;li;es
to
change
their
business
models

40. Clean
Shipping
Mobility
Under
increasing
pressure
to
improve
efficiency
freight
shipping
adopts
a
range
of
alterna;ve
policies
and
power
systems

41. Electric
Mobility
Mobility
With
France
and
Germany
taking
the
ini;al
lead
roles,
electric
cars
take
off
and
form
up
to
10%
of
the
world’s
vehicle
fleet
by
2020

42. Electric
Mobility
Mobility
Renault
in
par;cular
is
making
bold
moves
for
the
future
in
France,
Denmark
and
Israel
in
partnership
with
Be_er
Place

43. Intelligent
Highways
Mobility
Mesh
networks
and
ubiquitous
mobile
connec;ons
deliver
automated
highways
to
improve
safety,
increase
capacity
and
reduce
conges;on

44. Automated
Vehicles
Mobility
With
truck
platoons
and
urban
delivery
vehicles
at
the
fore,
we
will
see
a
steady
shiL
to
driverless
transporta;on
in
those
areas
where
improved
efficiency
and
safety
are
key

45. Automated
Vehicles
Mobility
Personal
pods
are
gedng
a
lot
of
a_en;on
with
trials
scheduled
for
a
number
of
ci;es
across
Europe,
Asia
and
also
at
Heathrow
Airport

46. Urban
(Im)mobility
Mobility
Informed
choices,
growth,
conges;on
and
regula;on
impact
the
world’s
ci;es
to
drive
a
shiL
to
more
sustainable
efficient
transport
op;ons

48. Bridging
The
Last
Mile
Locality
The
need
to
make
public
transport
as
flexible
as
private
focuses
a_en;on
on
the
last
mile
between
mul;-­‐modal
hubs
and
the
home
/
work
des;na;on

49. Lease
Everything
Wealth
Rising
sustainability
impera;ves
and
increasing
cost
of
ownership
shiL
the
balance
from
ownership
to
access
and
we
prefer
to
rent
than
buy

50. Dynamic
Pricing
Wealth
Pervasive
smart
meters
and
ubiquitous
tracking
services
create
plagorms
for
the
dynamic
pricing
of
resources,
access
and
travel
to
manage
demand

51. More
people
=
more
freight
+
more
travel
Less
energy
+
more
conges:on
=
more
regula:on
>
Big
steps
forward
in
some
loca:ons
(but
not
all)
>
New
business
models
on
access
and
pricing
=
Some
great
opportuni;es
for
innova;on
Key
Mobility
Thoughts

52. The
Future
of
Mobility
22 September 2010
Tim
Jones
-­‐
Programme
Director
:m.jones@futureagenda.org