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Emerging	
  Shi+s	
  and	
  Implica3ons	
  on	
  Hospitality	
  
10	
  May	
  2013	
  |	
  Tim	
  Jones	
  |	
  Programme	
  Director	
  
	
  
This	
  talk	
  provides	
  some	
  views	
  on	
  how	
  external	
  shi4s	
  	
  
outside	
  the	
  hotel	
  industry	
  could	
  provoke	
  key	
  changes	
  
	
  across	
  the	
  hospitality	
  sector	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  or	
  so	
  
Contents	
  
•  Context	
  –	
  Foresight	
  and	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  
•  Macro	
  Trends	
  for	
  the	
  Next	
  Decade	
  
•  Six	
  Key	
  Shi+s	
  and	
  Implica3ons	
  for	
  Hospitality	
  
1.  Flexible	
  Urban	
  Spaces	
  
2.  Sustainable	
  ConsumpBon	
  
3.  Access	
  Not	
  Ownership	
  
4.  Trusted	
  Data	
  
5.  Curated	
  Experiences	
  
6.  AlternaBve	
  Currencies	
  
•  Key	
  Challenges	
  for	
  Hotel	
  Brands	
  
As	
  change	
  accelerates	
  in	
  an	
  increasingly	
  connected	
  world,	
  	
  
more	
  companies	
  are	
  looking	
  further	
  ahead	
  to	
  be>er	
  	
  
understand	
  emerging	
  opportuni?es	
  and	
  challenges	
  
Context	
  -­‐	
  Foresight	
  
	
  
Organisa?ons	
  increasingly	
  want	
  to	
  iden?fy	
  and	
  understand	
  
	
  both	
  the	
  an?cipated	
  and	
  unexpected	
  changes	
  	
  
so	
  that	
  they	
  can	
  be	
  be>er	
  prepared	
  for	
  the	
  future	
  
Context	
  -­‐	
  Foresight	
  
	
  
The	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  open	
  foresight	
  
programme	
  that	
  accesses	
  mul?ple	
  views	
  of	
  the	
  next	
  decade	
  	
  
so	
  all	
  can	
  be	
  be>er	
  informed	
  and	
  s?mulate	
  innova?on	
  
Macro	
  Trends	
  for	
  The	
  Next	
  Decade	
  
By	
  2020	
  the	
  popula?on	
  will	
  have	
  grown	
  by	
  700m	
  with	
  many	
  of	
  us	
  
living	
  longer:	
  A	
  good	
  number	
  of	
  us	
  will	
  be	
  in	
  marginal	
  regions	
  
that	
  are	
  unable	
  to	
  accommodate	
  extra	
  growth	
  
Imbalanced	
  Popula?on	
  Growth	
   Certain?es	
  
We	
  will	
  see	
  economic,	
  physical	
  and	
  poli?cal	
  shortages	
  of	
  	
  
key	
  materials	
  that	
  significantly	
  change	
  our	
  perspec?ves	
  especially	
  
around	
  access	
  to	
  food,	
  water	
  and	
  land	
  
Key	
  Resource	
  Constraints	
   Certain?es	
  
	
  
The	
  centre	
  of	
  gravity	
  of	
  global	
  wealth	
  is	
  accelera?ng	
  to	
  	
  
Asia	
  faster	
  than	
  expected:	
  Western	
  influence	
  is	
  simultaneously	
  
decreasing	
  in	
  many	
  high-­‐growth	
  markets	
  
Asian	
  Wealth	
  Shi4	
   Certain?es	
  
We	
  will	
  finally	
  be	
  connected	
  everywhere	
  -­‐	
  everything	
  	
  
that	
  can	
  benefit	
  from	
  a	
  network	
  connec?on	
  will	
  have	
  one	
  and	
  all	
  
will	
  have	
  the	
  poten?al	
  to	
  access	
  more	
  informa?on	
  
Ubiquitous	
  Data	
  Access	
   Certain?es	
  
Six	
  Key	
  Shi+s	
  and	
  Implica3ons	
  for	
  Hospitality	
  
By	
  2020	
  75%	
  of	
  us	
  will	
  live	
  in	
  urban	
  environments	
  	
  
and	
  these	
  will	
  increasingly	
  be	
  dense	
  ci?es	
  –	
  more	
  like	
  	
  
Paris	
  and	
  Hong	
  Kong	
  than	
  LA	
  or	
  Mexico	
  City.	
  	
  
Dense	
  Ci?es	
  Shi4	
  1:	
  Flexible	
  Urban	
  Spaces	
  
Midi-­‐city	
  clusters	
  will	
  be	
  of	
  growing	
  significance	
  with	
  	
  
400	
  middleweight	
  ci?es	
  in	
  emerging	
  markets	
  genera?ng	
  
	
  40%	
  of	
  global	
  growth	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  15	
  years.	
  
Midi	
  City	
  Clusters	
  Shi4	
  1:	
  Flexible	
  Urban	
  Spaces	
  
Millions	
  are	
  drawn	
  to	
  ci?es:	
  by	
  2015,	
  32	
  people	
  an	
  hour	
  will	
  be	
  
moving	
  into	
  Shanghai,	
  39	
  into	
  Kinshasa	
  and	
  Jakarta,	
  42	
  into	
  
Mumbai	
  and	
  Karachi,	
  50	
  into	
  Dhaka	
  and	
  58	
  into	
  Lagos.	
  	
  
Developing	
  World	
  Mobility	
  Shi4	
  1:	
  Flexible	
  Urban	
  Spaces	
  
As	
  most	
  of	
  us	
  increasingly	
  live	
  in	
  smaller,	
  more	
  flexible,	
  
mul?func?onal	
  spaces,	
  making	
  more	
  effec?ve	
  use	
  of	
  hotel	
  rooms	
  
and	
  semi-­‐public	
  areas	
  will	
  be	
  pivotal	
  design	
  trends	
  
Flexible	
  Spaces	
  Shi4	
  1:	
  Flexible	
  Urban	
  Spaces	
  
By	
  2020	
  ‘weird	
  weather’	
  is	
  commonplace,	
  has	
  changed	
  some	
  
pivotal	
  adtudes	
  and	
  the	
  macro	
  environmental	
  shi4s	
  are	
  
increasingly	
  visible	
  to	
  all	
  and	
  ac?onable	
  by	
  many	
  
Weird	
  Weather	
  Shi4	
  2:	
  Sustainable	
  Consump?on	
  
Organiza?ons	
  are	
  focused	
  on	
  adapta?on	
  to,	
  rather	
  than	
  
mi?ga?on	
  of,	
  climate	
  change	
  as	
  the	
  impacts	
  of	
  4C	
  rise	
  are	
  
recognized	
  globally	
  –	
  should	
  we	
  be	
  building	
  floa?ng	
  hotels?	
  
Adapta?on	
  Shi4	
  2:	
  Sustainable	
  Consump?on	
  
As	
  ‘green’	
  is	
  a	
  hygiene	
  factor,	
  social	
  innova?on	
  is	
  central	
  for	
  
companies	
  as	
  philanthropic	
  exercises	
  are	
  replaced	
  by	
  a	
  more	
  
genuine	
  focus	
  on	
  risk	
  and	
  sustainability	
  in	
  the	
  core	
  business	
  	
  
Genuine	
  Social	
  Ac?ons	
  Shi4	
  2:	
  Sustainable	
  Consump?on	
  
New	
  regula?on,	
  rising	
  sustainability	
  impera?ves,	
  changing	
  
consumer	
  sen?ment	
  and	
  increasing	
  cost	
  of	
  ownership	
  all	
  shi4	
  the	
  
balance	
  to	
  access	
  as	
  we	
  prefer	
  to	
  rent	
  than	
  buy	
  
Shi4	
  3:	
  Access	
  Not	
  Ownership	
   Lease	
  Everything	
  
As	
  norms	
  change	
  across	
  sectors’	
  supply	
  chains,	
  more	
  items	
  will	
  be	
  
rented	
  not	
  bought	
  –	
  many	
  brands	
  are	
  moving	
  towards	
  leasing	
  as	
  
an	
  integral	
  part	
  of	
  their	
  business	
  models	
  	
  
Shi4	
  3:	
  Access	
  Not	
  Ownership	
   Supply	
  Chain	
  Leasing	
  
Wan?ng	
  less	
  luggage,	
  guests	
  may	
  increasingly	
  prefer	
  to	
  rent	
  and	
  
not	
  bring	
  their	
  own	
  stuff	
  –	
  whether	
  that	
  be	
  tablets	
  and	
  laptops	
  or	
  
gym	
  kit,	
  business	
  shirts	
  and	
  even	
  evening	
  wear	
  
Shi4	
  3:	
  Access	
  Not	
  Ownership	
   Luggage-­‐less	
  Travel	
  
As	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  data	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  doubles	
  every	
  month	
  access	
  is	
  
not	
  the	
  issue:	
  Making	
  be>er	
  sense	
  of	
  open	
  and	
  owned	
  
informa?on	
  is	
  a	
  pivotal	
  and	
  dis?nc?ve	
  capability	
  
Shared	
  Data	
  Shi4	
  4:	
  Trusted	
  Data	
  
Leaders	
  expertly	
  use	
  (their	
  own	
  and	
  others)	
  data	
  to	
  get	
  closer	
  to	
  
consumers	
  and,	
  as	
  the	
  nature	
  of	
  trust	
  and	
  value	
  shi4s,	
  
established	
  brands	
  carry	
  less	
  relevance	
  and	
  weight	
  
Value	
  and	
  Relevance	
  Shi4	
  4:	
  Trusted	
  Data	
  
	
  
As	
  consumers	
  put	
  increasing	
  faith	
  in	
  those	
  most	
  able	
  to	
  match	
  
unar?culated	
  needs	
  and	
  make	
  the	
  best	
  connec?ons,	
  hotel	
  stay	
  
recommenda?ons	
  will	
  shi4	
  to	
  the	
  data	
  miners	
  
Intelligent	
  Connec?ons	
  Shi4	
  4:	
  Trusted	
  Data	
  
	
  
For	
  many	
  the	
  future	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  reduced	
  choice	
  but	
  not	
  less	
  interest	
  
as	
  retailers	
  especially	
  provide	
  an	
  increasingly	
  edited	
  porlolio	
  of	
  
products	
  through	
  ever	
  more	
  efficient	
  channels	
  
Less	
  Choice	
  Shi4	
  5:	
  Curated	
  Experiences	
  
	
  
Consumers	
  increasingly	
  seek	
  increasingly	
  tailored	
  selec?ons	
  of	
  
op?ons	
  with	
  the	
  onus	
  on	
  providers	
  to	
  curate	
  the	
  ‘choice	
  
architecture’	
  and	
  give	
  guests	
  apparent	
  personalisa?on	
  
Apparent	
  Personaliza?on	
  Shi4	
  5:	
  Curated	
  Experiences	
  
	
  
Several	
  different	
  organiza?ons	
  are	
  already	
  making	
  strong	
  moves	
  
into	
  taking	
  a	
  share	
  of	
  online	
  and	
  offline	
  payments	
  through	
  
alterna?ve	
  currencies	
  and	
  plalorms	
  	
  
Exis?ng	
  Ac?vi?es	
  Shi4	
  6:	
  Alterna?ve	
  Currencies	
  
Decreased	
  trust	
  in	
  ins?tu?ons	
  may	
  broaden	
  the	
  	
  
adop?on	
  of	
  new	
  usable	
  stores	
  of	
  value	
  controlled	
  by	
  a	
  
	
  few	
  key	
  global	
  consumer	
  brands	
  but	
  used	
  by	
  many	
  
Shi4	
  6:	
  Alterna?ve	
  Currencies	
   Global	
  Scale	
  
Looking	
  ahead	
  there	
  seems	
  to	
  be	
  four	
  main	
  challenges	
  	
  
and	
  /	
  or	
  opportuni?es	
  for	
  leading	
  hotel	
  brand	
  owners	
  
Key	
  Thoughts	
   Four	
  Challenges	
  
Going	
  forward	
  how	
  best	
  should	
  hotel	
  companies…	
  	
  
	
  
1.  Take	
  advantage	
  of	
  trust	
  in	
  their	
  brands	
  to	
  deepen	
  rela3onships	
  
2.  Be	
  proac3ve	
  to	
  poten3al	
  disrup?on	
  from	
  outside	
  and	
  within	
  
3.  Challenge	
  themselves	
  on	
  their	
  individual	
  future	
  dis?nc?ve	
  capability	
  
4.  BePer	
  use	
  new	
  partnerships	
  to	
  expand	
  reach	
  beyond	
  current	
  assets	
  
	
  
Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
futureagenda.org
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
The	
  world’s	
  leading	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  

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Emerging shifts and impacts on hospitality - 10 may 2013

  • 1. Emerging  Shi+s  and  Implica3ons  on  Hospitality   10  May  2013  |  Tim  Jones  |  Programme  Director    
  • 2. This  talk  provides  some  views  on  how  external  shi4s     outside  the  hotel  industry  could  provoke  key  changes    across  the  hospitality  sector  over  the  next  decade  or  so   Contents   •  Context  –  Foresight  and  Future  Agenda   •  Macro  Trends  for  the  Next  Decade   •  Six  Key  Shi+s  and  Implica3ons  for  Hospitality   1.  Flexible  Urban  Spaces   2.  Sustainable  ConsumpBon   3.  Access  Not  Ownership   4.  Trusted  Data   5.  Curated  Experiences   6.  AlternaBve  Currencies   •  Key  Challenges  for  Hotel  Brands  
  • 3. As  change  accelerates  in  an  increasingly  connected  world,     more  companies  are  looking  further  ahead  to  be>er     understand  emerging  opportuni?es  and  challenges   Context  -­‐  Foresight    
  • 4. Organisa?ons  increasingly  want  to  iden?fy  and  understand    both  the  an?cipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  be>er  prepared  for  the  future   Context  -­‐  Foresight    
  • 5. The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight   programme  that  accesses  mul?ple  views  of  the  next  decade     so  all  can  be  be>er  informed  and  s?mulate  innova?on  
  • 6. Macro  Trends  for  The  Next  Decade  
  • 7. By  2020  the  popula?on  will  have  grown  by  700m  with  many  of  us   living  longer:  A  good  number  of  us  will  be  in  marginal  regions   that  are  unable  to  accommodate  extra  growth   Imbalanced  Popula?on  Growth   Certain?es  
  • 8. We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poli?cal  shortages  of     key  materials  that  significantly  change  our  perspec?ves  especially   around  access  to  food,  water  and  land   Key  Resource  Constraints   Certain?es    
  • 9. The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  is  accelera?ng  to     Asia  faster  than  expected:  Western  influence  is  simultaneously   decreasing  in  many  high-­‐growth  markets   Asian  Wealth  Shi4   Certain?es  
  • 10. We  will  finally  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything     that  can  benefit  from  a  network  connec?on  will  have  one  and  all   will  have  the  poten?al  to  access  more  informa?on   Ubiquitous  Data  Access   Certain?es  
  • 11. Six  Key  Shi+s  and  Implica3ons  for  Hospitality  
  • 12. By  2020  75%  of  us  will  live  in  urban  environments     and  these  will  increasingly  be  dense  ci?es  –  more  like     Paris  and  Hong  Kong  than  LA  or  Mexico  City.     Dense  Ci?es  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  • 13. Midi-­‐city  clusters  will  be  of  growing  significance  with     400  middleweight  ci?es  in  emerging  markets  genera?ng    40%  of  global  growth  in  the  next  15  years.   Midi  City  Clusters  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  • 14. Millions  are  drawn  to  ci?es:  by  2015,  32  people  an  hour  will  be   moving  into  Shanghai,  39  into  Kinshasa  and  Jakarta,  42  into   Mumbai  and  Karachi,  50  into  Dhaka  and  58  into  Lagos.     Developing  World  Mobility  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  • 15. As  most  of  us  increasingly  live  in  smaller,  more  flexible,   mul?func?onal  spaces,  making  more  effec?ve  use  of  hotel  rooms   and  semi-­‐public  areas  will  be  pivotal  design  trends   Flexible  Spaces  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  • 16. By  2020  ‘weird  weather’  is  commonplace,  has  changed  some   pivotal  adtudes  and  the  macro  environmental  shi4s  are   increasingly  visible  to  all  and  ac?onable  by  many   Weird  Weather  Shi4  2:  Sustainable  Consump?on  
  • 17. Organiza?ons  are  focused  on  adapta?on  to,  rather  than   mi?ga?on  of,  climate  change  as  the  impacts  of  4C  rise  are   recognized  globally  –  should  we  be  building  floa?ng  hotels?   Adapta?on  Shi4  2:  Sustainable  Consump?on  
  • 18. As  ‘green’  is  a  hygiene  factor,  social  innova?on  is  central  for   companies  as  philanthropic  exercises  are  replaced  by  a  more   genuine  focus  on  risk  and  sustainability  in  the  core  business     Genuine  Social  Ac?ons  Shi4  2:  Sustainable  Consump?on  
  • 19. New  regula?on,  rising  sustainability  impera?ves,  changing   consumer  sen?ment  and  increasing  cost  of  ownership  all  shi4  the   balance  to  access  as  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy   Shi4  3:  Access  Not  Ownership   Lease  Everything  
  • 20. As  norms  change  across  sectors’  supply  chains,  more  items  will  be   rented  not  bought  –  many  brands  are  moving  towards  leasing  as   an  integral  part  of  their  business  models     Shi4  3:  Access  Not  Ownership   Supply  Chain  Leasing  
  • 21. Wan?ng  less  luggage,  guests  may  increasingly  prefer  to  rent  and   not  bring  their  own  stuff  –  whether  that  be  tablets  and  laptops  or   gym  kit,  business  shirts  and  even  evening  wear   Shi4  3:  Access  Not  Ownership   Luggage-­‐less  Travel  
  • 22. As  the  amount  of  data  in  the  world  doubles  every  month  access  is   not  the  issue:  Making  be>er  sense  of  open  and  owned   informa?on  is  a  pivotal  and  dis?nc?ve  capability   Shared  Data  Shi4  4:  Trusted  Data  
  • 23. Leaders  expertly  use  (their  own  and  others)  data  to  get  closer  to   consumers  and,  as  the  nature  of  trust  and  value  shi4s,   established  brands  carry  less  relevance  and  weight   Value  and  Relevance  Shi4  4:  Trusted  Data    
  • 24. As  consumers  put  increasing  faith  in  those  most  able  to  match   unar?culated  needs  and  make  the  best  connec?ons,  hotel  stay   recommenda?ons  will  shi4  to  the  data  miners   Intelligent  Connec?ons  Shi4  4:  Trusted  Data    
  • 25. For  many  the  future  is  one  of  reduced  choice  but  not  less  interest   as  retailers  especially  provide  an  increasingly  edited  porlolio  of   products  through  ever  more  efficient  channels   Less  Choice  Shi4  5:  Curated  Experiences    
  • 26. Consumers  increasingly  seek  increasingly  tailored  selec?ons  of   op?ons  with  the  onus  on  providers  to  curate  the  ‘choice   architecture’  and  give  guests  apparent  personalisa?on   Apparent  Personaliza?on  Shi4  5:  Curated  Experiences    
  • 27. Several  different  organiza?ons  are  already  making  strong  moves   into  taking  a  share  of  online  and  offline  payments  through   alterna?ve  currencies  and  plalorms     Exis?ng  Ac?vi?es  Shi4  6:  Alterna?ve  Currencies  
  • 28. Decreased  trust  in  ins?tu?ons  may  broaden  the     adop?on  of  new  usable  stores  of  value  controlled  by  a    few  key  global  consumer  brands  but  used  by  many   Shi4  6:  Alterna?ve  Currencies   Global  Scale  
  • 29. Looking  ahead  there  seems  to  be  four  main  challenges     and  /  or  opportuni?es  for  leading  hotel  brand  owners   Key  Thoughts   Four  Challenges   Going  forward  how  best  should  hotel  companies…       1.  Take  advantage  of  trust  in  their  brands  to  deepen  rela3onships   2.  Be  proac3ve  to  poten3al  disrup?on  from  outside  and  within   3.  Challenge  themselves  on  their  individual  future  dis?nc?ve  capability   4.  BePer  use  new  partnerships  to  expand  reach  beyond  current  assets    
  • 30. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org tim.jones@futureagenda.org The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program