Presentation for road user behaviour seminar January 2012

1. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Motorcyclists
Paul Hewson
paul.hewson@plymouth.ac.uk
10th January 2012

2. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Overview
What works?
Workshop
Presentation
Conclusions

3. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Headline figures
For Engand 2009 (latest RRCGB)
ˆ Deaths: 402
ˆ Serious: 4,809
ˆ Slight: 13,824
(add 86 deaths for Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland)

4. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
1800
1600
1400
1200
Bike fatalities
Killed
1000
800
600
400
1940 1960 1980 2000
Year

5. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
1800
1600
Bike fatalities and ownership
1500
1400
1200
Killed
1000
1000
800
500
600
400
1940 1960 1980 2000
Year

6. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Global Problem
ˆ Around 1.2 million deaths due to road collisions globally
(mainly in developing world where motorcycles are relatively
more common)
ˆ In post-industrial countries, typically 1-2% of traffic, 15-25%
of fatalities

7. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Global solutions
ˆ Helmets (compulsory in UK)
ˆ Pre-licence training (minimal training now compulsory in UK)
ˆ Post licence training not linked with licensing - no idea of
popularity (estimated in US that around 1 in 4 P2W users
have attended some kind of training)

8. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Hierarchy of Evidence
ˆ Systematic review
ˆ Literature review
ˆ Randomised controlled trial
ˆ Case controlled study
ˆ Cohort study
ˆ Cross sectional study
ˆ Anecdote

9. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Cochrane Review
ˆ High standards of critical review
ˆ Produce a “live” document
ˆ Good place to start
ˆ We will review one in the workshop
ˆ Is there any evidence that training interventions reduce PTW
casualties?

10. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Data modelling
ˆ Overlapping idea - what is the evidence that age/experience
are beneficial

11. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
The Daily Telegraph 22/10/200
Born-again bikers who are riding for a fall
By David Bamber, Home Affairs Correspondent
POLICE have identified an increasing risk on the roads from affluent middle-aged men
attempting to recapture their lost youth by riding powerful motorbikes.
Nicknamed “Bambis” by traffic police - born-again middle-aged bikers - they have inspired
the Association of Chief Police Officers to launch a campaign to encourage bike dealers to ensure
that their middle-aged customers get the training they need to meet the challenge that newer bikes
pose.
Chief Insp David Short of North Yorkshire traffic police, whose research led to the current
campaign, said: “Many of them used to ride bikes years ago but they don’t seem to realise that
bikes have advanced so much over the past 20 years that today’s machines bear little resemblance
to what they were used to. They return to biking with a little more money in their pockets and
buy bikes that are actually very similar to performance bikes used in racing. They simply go too
fast, lose control and hit something.”

12. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Before we zoom in a little
Fatal casualties
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Male Male
80−89 90−99
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
60−69 70−79
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
40−49 50−59
80
60
Freq
40
20
0
Male Male
20−29 30−39
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
0−9 10−19
80
60
40
20
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

13. 0
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Male Male
40−49 50−59
80
60
Freq
40
20
0
Male Male
20−29 30−39
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
0−9 10−19
80
60
40
20
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
biker.year

14. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
But let’s aggregate the data in a different way
Fatal casualties
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Male Male
1880 1890
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
1900 1910
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
1920 1930
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
1940 1950
80
60
Freq
40
20
0
Male Male
1960 1970
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
1980 1990
80
60
40
20
0
Male
2000
80
60
40
20
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

15. 40
Outline Overview 20 What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
0
Male Male
1940 1950
80
60
Freq
40
20
0
Male Male
1960 1970
80
60
40
20
0
Male Male
1980 1990
80
60
40
20
0
Male
2000
80
60
40
20
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
biker.year

16. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
What is this saying
ˆ Data from STATs19 via Data Archive for 1985-2009
ˆ All Motorcycle casualties
ˆ Each cohort has a similar shape (high risk as 16/17 year olds,
rapid decline in injuries) but then appears to show constant
injury count)
ˆ We don’t want to analyse tea-leaves BUT it’s hard to
reconcile this with BAMBIs.
ˆ It is easier to reconcile this with individual cohorts having
different numbers of potential riders. What we see in a given
year reflects the mix of cohorts in a given year.

17. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Power and Risk
ˆ Mattson and Summala (2010): evidence that more powerful
bikes are always higher risk bikes
ˆ Obvious comment on EU restrictions on bike power
ˆ Our own work (Rolison et al. unpublished) also indicative that
large bikes are always more dangerous

18. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was
effective (yes, “more research needed”)

19. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was
effective (yes, “more research needed”)
ˆ Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests the
pattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of biking
in formative years and size of cohort.

20. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was
effective (yes, “more research needed”)
ˆ Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests the
pattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of biking
in formative years and size of cohort.
ˆ Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large”
bikes are always relatively more dangerous

21. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was
effective (yes, “more research needed”)
ˆ Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests the
pattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of biking
in formative years and size of cohort.
ˆ Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large”
bikes are always relatively more dangerous
ˆ Therefore, training may be dangerous - because we can’t
mitigate the effects of “large” bikes but we make people think
we can)