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Telemus Capital's Summer Insights Q2 2013
1. SUMMER 2013
Message from the
Managing Partner
Telemus Mid-Year 2013
Global Outlook
Equities
Fixed Income
Fund Spotlight: Akahi
Capital Management
Telemus Wealth
Advisors
INSIGHTS
Welcome to the next edition of our new quarterly newsletter
Insights. As we noted in our first issue in these informative pieces
you’ll hear from us, and others, regarding the current market
environment as well as a variety of investment and financial topics.
In this Summer issue you’ll hear from Jim Robinson, CIO and CEO
of Robinson Capital Management, on his current views of the
global economy and markets. Our U.S. equity market commentary
is once again from Evercore Wealth Management, the sub-advisor
of our core equity strategy. Tom Uber, the portfolio manager of
our Beacon tax-exempt bond strategy, will explain how we use
tax-exempt bonds in our portfolios and his current views of the
muni market. Our Chief Wealth Officer, Andy Bass, will discuss the
complex issues around inheriting an IRA. Finally Scott Takemoto of
Akahi Capital Management LLC, writes about the firm’s investment
strategy and the 1st half performance of the Akahi Fund L.P., a
long/short market neutral hedge fund we’re investors in for certain
clients.
Recently the financial markets have reminded investors of their
unpredictable nature. Statements made by Fed Chairman Bernanke
after the release of the FOMC minutes caused quite a stir when he
hinted that the current round of bond buying by the Fed may be
tapered if economic data warranted it. He went on to say further
that doesn’t mean the Fed intends to raise interest rates any time
2. 2 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
soon, it meant that the extraordinary measures in place today
may be eventually ended. The markets listened closely to what
he first said, but for some reason ignored what he said after that.
The result was a dramatic sell-off in the bond market, and to a
lesser extent the stock market. For a couple of days there it felt
like 2008 all over again as even relatively safe investments were
subject to panic selling. Sure enough after the markets unexpected
response to Bernanke’s comments a number of Fed Governors
vocalized quite publicly that the markets had misinterpreted what
the Chairman had said and that interest rates were expected to
remain low. As a result the stock market rallied back to just about
where it was before Bernanke’s comments. The bond market hasn’t
really recovered, the 10 year Treasury as of today yields 2.50%, well
above the recent low yield of 1.60% reached early in May. Given the
general positive trend in the U.S. economic recovery yields in the
bond market are unlikely to retreat much and we can expect even
higher rates if the economic recovery strengthens.
During times like these it’s our jobs as financial advisors to keep
our clients informed, and more importantly, to remain calm and
rational. In my over 30 years of experience it’s never been a good
idea to counter the markets irrational behavior with irrational
behavior of our own, and at Telemus Capital we make sure that’s
the case for all our clients.
We hope that you enjoy this second issue of Insights. If you have
any questions regarding anything contained herein please contact
us.
A Message From The Managing Partner
Gary Ran
Chairman and Partner
3. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 3
U.S. Overview
Economy
As we mentioned in our beginning of the year
Global Outlook, the delay in resolution to the
Fiscal Cliff had an adverse effect on the economy
in the fourth quarter—GDP came in at a near stall
speed of 0.4%; and, the automatic sequester cuts
didn’t help the recovery from that slow growth—
Q1 2013 GDP came in at 1.8%. We believe the
economy is showing gradual, incremental
signs of improvement but we are not nearly as
optimistic as the Federal Reserve appears to be.
Economic growth for the full year will struggle to
get much above 2%; and, the unemployment rate
will likely remain at the 7-7.5% level. The story
really hasn’t changed over the past four years:
fiscal policy is non-existent due to Washington’s
political gridlock and monetary policy can only
spur so much growth.
Inflation
Some Federal Reserve Governors have recently
expressed concern about the trajectory and
absolute level of inflation. The Personal
Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s
preferred measure of inflation, has been declining
consistently over the past year and presently
stands just above the 1% level (below 1% is
considered to be dangerously deflationary)—
the slowest rise in prices over the past 50
years. Chairman Bernanke and the Federal
Open Market Committee have outlined a data-
dependent timeline for withdrawing quantitative
easing. Should the Fed’s optimistic projections
pan out, the Fed would begin cutting back on its
bond purchases toward the end of this year and
stop them altogether by the middle of next year.
Unfortunately, the Fed has consistently been
overly optimistic in its economic projections over
the past four years. We don’t believe quantitative
easing will end until the Fed is certain deflationary
pressures are off the table—which would equate
to a Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
closer to 2% than the current 1%.
Interest Rates
Short-term interest rates will remain low for
some time. Longer-term US Treasury yields,
which have risen significantly over the past two
months thanks to the Fed’s discussion about
removing quantitative easing, are comprised of
two component parts: a real interest rate plus
an inflation expectation. The 1% rise in the 10-
year US Treasury yield since the end of April
was comprised of a 1.25% rise in real yields and
a 0.25% decline in inflation expectations. We
would expect the real interest rate component to
rise another 0.5% when the Fed does finally cease
its quantitative easing—we don’t expect that to
happen until inflation expectations increase. As
noted above, we have more deflationary than
inflationary pressures at present. As a result,
we expect longer-term interest rates to stabilize
and likely decline a bit from these levels over
the balance of this year. Longer term we expect
the Fed will eventually succeed in engineering
higher inflation rates and therefore higher long-
term interest rates as both real interest rates and
inflation expectations rise.
Domestic Equity Markets
Stock prices follow corporate earnings and we
believe the corporate earnings environment
remains positive even as the overall economic
Telemus Mid-Year 2013 Global Outlook
Provided By Jim Robinson, Robinson Capital Management
4. 4 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
environment remains sluggish. We also believe
stocks will continue to benefit from an overall
reallocation from bonds to stocks by investors.
Individual investors have been woefully
underweighted in stocks since the financial
crisis, and institutional pension plans will have
a difficult time achieving 8% actuarial rates of
return with any investments in investment grade
bonds yielding 2.5%. The stock market still
offers comparable yields, far more upside, and
only slightly more downside than the investment
grade taxable bond market. We remain bullish
on the stock market over the balance of this year.
Domestic Bond Market
The domestic bond market experienced a major
re-pricing over the past two months. Investment
grade bond indices were down 4% as bond yields
rose nearly 1%--the biggest two month decline in
bond indices and rise in rates since the height
of the financial crisis in late 2008. We think
investors misinterpreted and overreacted to
the Fed’s message, and we would expect bond
yields to stabilize and likely decline modestly
over the balance of this year. Longer term we
believe bonds are a poor investment as they still
offer historically low yields, little upside and lots
of downside risk as investors experienced these
past two months. Non-traditional fixed income
securities such as senior bank loans, convertible
bonds and preferred stocks continue to provide
the most attractive risk/reward characteristics.
International Overview
Economy
Europe is in a recession and many of the
emerging market economies, particularly China,
have definitely slowed down. Central banks
across the globe, with the exception of Japan, are
looking for ways, like our own Federal Reserve
Bank, to ease their respective economies off of
the monetary stimulus drip they’ve been on for
the past several years. The monetary stimulus
policies recently adopted in Japan are having an
impact—the Japanese economy finally appears
to be emerging from two decades of deflation.
Inflation
Slowing growth in the emerging markets coupled
with most major central banks contemplating
exit strategies for monetary stimulus should keep
inflation in check. We still believe that deflation
may still be a greater risk than inflation to the
overall global economy.
Interest Rates
As with the domestic market, we expect global
short-term interest rates to remain low. Longer-
term interest rates in most major markets are
still near historic low levels. Any improvement in
economic activity will drive those rates higher—
we don’t expect that to happen over the balance
of this year.
Currencies
The dollar has had quite a run ever since the Fed
started talking about curbing its bond buying
activities. Just as we expect interest rates
to stabilize at these levels, we would expect
the dollar to do the same versus most major
currencies with the exception of the Japanese
yen—we expect the yen to continue weakening.
Natural Resources
The slowing of emerging market economies,
particularly China, and the strength in the US
dollar, has had a direct negative impact on
commodity prices. We don’t see that changing
over the balance of this year, but longer-term
we believe the emerging and frontier markets
will resume their growth trajectories and natural
resources will follow.
Global Equity Markets
While emerging market economies continue
to show signs of slowing, we believe some of
those markets’ stock valuations are becoming
attractive. At present we still have a bias toward
domestic versus international stocks; frontier
markets over emerging markets, and small cap
stocks over large cap stocks in both domestic
and developed international markets.
Global Bond Markets
Most of the weaker countries in the Eurozone
(Greece, Italy, Spain) have seen their bond yields
come down dramatically in recent months.
While we haven’t read or heard much about the
European sovereign debt crisis lately, it doesn’t
mean it’s been resolved. We believe the risk is still
there but the potential reward has been greatly
reduced. We would favor higher rated developed
European countries at these levels. We remain
underweight emerging market debt as we don’t
believe investors are being compensated for
the reduced liquidity and lower credit quality in
those markets.
5. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 5
Equities
For the first quarter of 2013 the Partner’s Account
was up 10.8%, slightly ahead of the S&P 500
return of 10.6%. Through May 31st, the Partner’s
Account was up 18.4%. For the same period, the
S&P was up 15.4%.
While it has been a strong start absolutely and
relative to the market, the last several summers
have been very volatile. It appears that this
summer may well follow the same pattern.
That said, we believe that the account is well
positioned and we have both harvested some
recent gains and initiated new positions that we
hope will perform well for the balance of the year
and beyond.
For the year-to-date through May 31st , Rock-
Tenn, Western Digital and Blackstone were three
of our most significant contributors. Each of
these companies’ stock prices reacted well to
very strong first quarter earnings. Rock-Tenn
continues to execute on its operational targets
post its acquisition of Smurfit. Western Digital is
also executing very well in a difficult environment
and is showing excellent capital discipline; a
key ingredient to our thesis for the company.
Blackstone is benefitting from the ability to
refinance many of its portfolio companies debt
and extract dividends. They have also been able
bring several companies public. Additionally,
they are beginning to unlock value in their real
estate funds which ultimately should flow to the
LP holders.
On the negative side, Apple was our largest
detractor. There continues to be tremendous
skepticism about Apple’s ability to continue to
innovate. At current prices, we believe that the
stock is very inexpensive for a non-distressed
company and that cash flow will be very
significant over the next few years. American
Tower, while up modestly has been a laggard for
the year. The company continues to have solid
growth in the US and very good opportunities
internationally and the stock should perform
better prospectively.
We have sold several positions including Actavis
and Oil States. Actavis is involved in merger
discussions and the stock appreciated very
quickly. While we like the longer term prospects
we decided to take profits but may revisit when
the dust settles. Oil States also jumped in price
when an activist investor announced a large
position and desire for the company to split into
several parts. While there may be further value,
we sold on the jump in price.
We added new positions in Qualcomm (QCOM) a
leader in the design and manufacture of wireless
communication technology and Polaris (PII)
the designer manufacturer of on and off-road
vehicles and motorcycles.
We have seen a number of our company
managements at recent conferences and, overall,
business appears to be reasonably good. The
proof will obviously be in the numbers and we
look forward to seeing second quarter earnings
in the coming weeks.
Provided By Timothy Evnin, Portfolio Manager, Evercore Equities
6. 6 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
Successful investment portfolios resemble
successful business and sports teams, each
comprising a diverse group of specialists with
unique skills and attributes, working together
to achieve excellence, the ultimate goal of all
teams. Because their returns are tax-exempt,
municipals bonds are an essential component of
taxable fixed income allocations within high net
worth portfolios. Generally speaking, municipal
bonds are less volatile than US Treasuries and
have historically outperformed them in rising
rate environments. Municipal investors typically
“buy and hold” their bonds, making them less
actively traded. They are purchased for their
tax free income, not as trading vehicles as many
investors view Treasuries. Municipal bonds play
a defensive role in most portfolios, providing tax
free income, safety of principal and liquidity as
well as higher tax equivalent yields than taxable
securities with comparable quality.
Credit markets have been unusually active since
the Spring edition of Insights, and municipal
yields have risen dramatically.
Compare the following changes in the Municipal
Yield Curves over the last month and AAA, AA
and A rated Municipal Bonds compared to US
Treasuries:
Fixed Income
By Thomas Uber, Senior Portfolio Manager
7. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 7
June was an uncharacteristically volatile month
as Fed Chairman Bernanke’s June 19 comments
about reducing asset purchases sent global
bond prices lower across all sectors. The Fed
indicated that “downside risks” have diminished,
that inflation expectations are “stable”, and that
they were lowering their outlook on inflation and
unemployment. With slight upticks in economic
forecasts, the Fed committed to reduce asset
purchases and end Quantitative Easing by next
summer, triggering a sell-off which moved yields
to higher ranges. While municipals typically
lag moves in the US Treasury market, yields
rose sharply in the face of a heavy new issue
market and rising global bond yields. Additional
market setbacks could be touched off by new
comments from the Fed, negative news affecting
the municipal market, such as recent bankruptcy
announcementsinDetroit,StocktonandJefferson
County, Alabama, and Administration challenges
to the tax exempt status of municipal bonds.
Look for volatility to continue as adjustments
to expectations will create ebbs and flows into
the bond market, remembering though, the Fed
reserves the right to change its mind as rising
interest rates will likely slow the economy.
We maintain a defensive posture within the
municipal portion of the portfolio by selecting
highly rated, AA or better, general obligation,
essential service revenue and pre-refunded
bonds with short durations, to reduce credit and
market risk. We avoid troubled states, counties
and cities. We will extend duration when we
feel reward outweighs risk. When the market
experiences dramatic setbacks, as we have this
month, we will add bonds with durations longer
than the portfolio average to take advantage of
higher yields without sacrificing credit quality.
When the opportunity doesn’t exist, we patiently
wait.
MMD Current
7/5/2013
Week Ago
6/28/2013
Month Ago
6/5/2013
UST Gross
7/5/2013
Muni/UST
7/5/2013
AAA
5 Year 1.47 1.40 .98 1.59 92.5%
10 Year 2.66 2.56 2.12 2.71 98.29%
15 Year 3.68 3.58 2.96 3.43 107.3%
20 Year 3.95 3.83 3.29 3.68 107.3%
AA
5 Year 1.66 1.59 1.15 1.59 104.4%
10 Year 2.93 2.81 2.39 2.71 108.1%
15 Year 3.97 3.86 3.24 3.43 115.7%
20 Year 4.23 4.11 3.57 3.68 114.9%
A
5 Year 1.91 1.84 1.41 1.59 120.1%
10 Year 3.41 3.31 2.83 2.71 125.8%
15 Year 4.47 4.41 3.74 3.43 130.3%
20 Year 4.70 4.58 4.06 3.68 127.7%
8. This piece should only be distributed to clients who are verified to be accredited investors. This not a recommendation,
advertisement or offer to sell any investment products. Please consult with your Telemus Wealth Advisor with any questions
or for advice.
Fund Spotlight: Akahi Capital
Management
Akahi Capital Management, LLC’s investment
objective is absolute returns. Our goal is to earn
positive returns regardless of the direction of the
stock market with less volatility over the long
term. To neutralize our exposure to the market’s
movement up and down, we buy stocks long in
half the portfolio (to profit in up markets) and
we sell stocks short in the other half (to profit in
down markets). To earn positive returns, we must
select stocks to buy that will go up more than
the market and select stocks to short that will
go down more than the market. The universe of
stocks that we invest in is defined as U.S. small-
cap growth. The firm manages this strategy
identically in two separate funds, Akahi Fund,
L.P. and Akahi Fund II, L.P.
Through June 2013, Akahi Fund, L.P. is up 1.57%
net of fees and expenses, Akahi Fund II, L.P.
is up 1.48% net of fees and expenses and our
benchmark, the Russell 2000 Growth Index, is up
17.44%. We are not surprised by the performance
of the funds or the performance of the market in
2013. The strategy is not designed to participate
in large market swings, up or down. For instance,
in 2008, the Russell 2000 Growth Index was
down 38.54% and Akahi Fund, L.P. was up 6.71%
net of fees and expenses (Akahi Fund II, L.P. had
not yet been created).
The market has been up strongly thus far, and
while this move might extend through year-end,
we do not anticipate this continuing without
increased volatility. Being that the funds are
hedged, the market’s direction largely did not
impact performance. However, it seemed to us
that all boats rose with the tide and investors did
not closely differentiate between more attractive
and less attractive investments. Our internal
analysis ranks stocks by risk (downside potential
if the company fails) and reward (upside potential
if the company succeeds). Our take-away from
the first half of the year is that stocks with poor
risk/reward participated in the market up swings
as much or more than companies with great risk/
reward.
For instance, in our March newsletter, we wrote
about a company that we believe has poor risk/
reward, Select Comfort Corp. (SCSS). Since
March, SCSS is up from $19.77 to $25.06. To
summarize our letter, the risk to the company
comes from competition and sales volumes in the
high-end bed market (not intended to suggest
that the SCSS is not a good company, or that
it is poorly run). The company confirmed our
assessment of its operating risk in April, when it
reported revenue and earnings estimates below
street expectations and lowered future guidance.
Despite this, the stock has risen 26.76%.
We remain focused on generating positive,
absolute returns through our research of
individual stocks. Regardless of market volatility
and direction, we believe investors will ultimately
care about what they put in their portfolios.
Provided By Scott Takemoto, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer,
Akahi Capital Management
8 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
9. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 9
Telemus Wealth Advisors
We are nearing the peak of the baby boom inheritance cycle where one of the most common assets
being left is IRAs or other retirement accounts. Due to the advantageous tax deferral nature of such
accounts, these investments were usually the last ones utilized to support the older generation.
Due to the deferred income obligation associated with these accounts, thorough and well advised
planning is critical due to varied potential income tax outcomes based on to whom and how such
accounts are transferred. The named beneficiary designation on the account is what controls the
disposition of these assets, versus what one’s will or trust documents say. Thus it is critical that
beneficiary designations are reviewed regularly to insure they are consistent with one’s wishes and
the overall estate and income tax plan of the owner.
Inherited IRA rules vary based on who is the named beneficiary and the age of the account owner
at death, however there are three basic options and each has special rules and timing requirements.
1. Assets can be transferred to an “Inherited IRA” where depending on the facts the assets
can be drawn down immediately without a penalty; deferred and withdrawn systematically
over a specified time period; or possibly required to be withdrawn in total by the end of the
fifth year.
2. If you are the spouse of the plan owner you can roll the assets into your own IRA and have
them treated as if they are your own IRA assets subject to the same rules and restrictions as
other assets in your own IRA or leave the assets in an inherited IRA.3.
3. One can take a lump sum distribution and pay taxes on the full value based on your
personal tax rates.
The first thing that must be done is determining the type of plan being inherited;
• An IRA (including traditional or employee sponsored) and Roth IRA or
By Andrew Bass, CWM, CPA Chief Wealth Officer and Senior Advisor
10. 10 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
• A qualified retirement plan such as a profit sharing or 401(K) or a similar plan.
Then one determines who the named beneficiary is; spouse, non-spouse; trust, or estate executor
• If you are the spouse and are the named beneficiary of a traditional, SEP, or Simple IRA
your options are:
o Take a lump sum and pay tax in full (no penalty and full access to the after tax
proceeds)
o Transfer assets to your own IRA: assets are transferred to your own IRA and you have
full discretion to choose beneficiaries. The assets are treated as yours and subject
to the same distribution rules as your other assets. If you are young and do not
need immediate access to the funds, this could be the most advantageous option
as the deferral continues in full until you reach the required beginning date for
your minimum distributions.
o Open an inherited IRA: Assets in the account continue to grow tax free and you are
not subject to the early withdrawal penalty (Note: if the account is left to multiple
beneficiaries you must establish separate beneficiary accounts by December 31 of the
year after death in order for each beneficiary to use their own single life expectancy
otherwise the oldest beneficiary’s life will control).
• If the owner was under 70 ½ at date of death; required distributions are
required to start by the later of these two dates;(1) the December 31 following
the year in which the owner died or (2) December 31 of the year in which
the account owner would have reached age 70 ½.
• If the account owner was over 70 ½; you must start taking the required
minimum distribution over your life expectancy beginning no later than the
December 31 following the year of death. (Note: if the original account owner
did not take an RMD in the year of death it must be taken by the end of
that year)
• If the named beneficiary is a non-spouse individual, you have the following two options:
o Open an inherited IRA where the assets continue to grow. There is no early
withdrawal penalties and you can chose your beneficiaries.
• Assets are transferred into an inherited IRA in the name of the original account
owner. If the account is left to multiple beneficiaries, you must establish
separate beneficiary accounts by December 31 of the year after death so
that each beneficiary can use their own single life expectancy.
Otherwise the oldest’ s life will control.
• You can access funds whenever you like and are taxed on each distribution
however:
• If account holder was under age 70½ at death:
o If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution
(RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the
11. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 11
year of the original account holder’s death.
o You may delay distributions until the end of the fifth year after
the year in which the original account holder died, at which time
all assets need to be fully distributed.
• If account holder was over age 70½:
o Your annual distributions are spread over your expected lifetime.
o If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution
(RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the
year of the original account holder’s death.
o If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year he
or she died, you must take the distribution by the end of
that year.
o Take a lump sum distribution and the assets are fully taxed at date of distribution
• If the named beneficiary is a trust:
o Determine if the trust is a qualified trust or a non-qualified trust (consult legal
counsel) as the rules are complex and the ultimate method of distribution will vary.
o If it is a qualified trust, the distribution period for the assets can generally be spread
over the life expectancy of the named beneficiary.
• Open an inherited IRA in the name of the original account owner for the
benefit of the trust (individuals of the trust generally cannot establish their
own inherited IRAs unless the IRA was actually distributed out by
the trust within the designated post death time period.)
• There are two ways that the trust may take distributions:
• Based on the single life expectancy of the beneficiary, if he or she is
the sole beneficiary of the trust.
• Based on the single life expectancy of the oldest beneficiary if there
are multiple beneficiaries.
• If account holder was under age 70½:
• If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD),
you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of the
original account holder’s death. You may delay distributions until
the end of the fifth year after the year in which the original
account holder died, at which time all assets need to be fully distributed.
• If account holder was over age 70½:
• If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD),
you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of
the original account holder’s death.
• If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year he or she died,
you must take the distribution by the end of that year.
o If the trust is a nonqualified trust meaning that one cannot use the “look through
rules” then it will be subject to the no designated beneficiary rule and required
distributions will be calculated under the account owner’s life expectancy or the five
year rule depending on the age when the account owner died.
As can be seen, the rules on inheriting an IRA are very complicated and need to be understood before
naming beneficiaries. Furthermore, after death, the executor and all stakeholders must be sure that
all deadlines are met regarding determining optimum ownership and if necessary distributing and
designating who the ultimate owners will be. There are different rules for other non IRA retirement
accounts which need coordination with the plan administrator and estate tax counsel to insure they
are properly designated and timely handled as well.
12. southfield, michigan
two towne square, suite 800
southfield, Michigan 48076
248.827.1800
fax 248.827.1808
ann arbor, michigan
110 Miller avenue, suite 300
ann arbor, Michigan 48104
734.662.1200
fax 734.662.0416
800.827.3519
telemuscapital.com