The document summarizes the global water and food crisis. It discusses how population growth and increasing demands for food and water are diminishing available water resources on a per capita basis globally. It then provides details on water availability, access, hazards, and use from analysis of 10 major river basins. Key factors influencing livelihoods and the link between water, food, and poverty in these basins include water scarcity, unequal access to water resources, vulnerability to water-related hazards like drought and flood, and generally low water productivity. The impacts of climate change on exacerbating water scarcity, access issues, and hazards are also briefly discussed. The crisis is characterized as a development crisis influenced by how water constraints development and how development
Planning and Facilitating Project Outcomes: CPWF Case Studies
Simon Cook - The global water and food crisis
1. The global water and food crisis
Global picture of water and development
Simon Cook, Tassilo Tiemann & Myles Fisher
2. Outline
• Crisis…
• …behind every crisis is a situation
– more people, more demand, same resources
• The detail in ten river basins
– 4 water related reasons for poverty
• Some impacts of climate change (very brief)
• Conclusions
21. Research plan
Water availability +Water use
How much water flows How well is water used?
through basins? Water productivity of crops,
Who uses it? livestock, fish…(kg/m3
Institutions
(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?
What are the impacts on livelihoods?
How are water, food and poverty
linked?
Potential interventions
Change processes
22. Livelihoods influenced by 4 water-related factors
1. Availability / Scarcity
How much water is there?
2. Access
Who gets water?
How is it shared?
3. Hazard:
Are people hit by water-related problems?
Floods, droughts, disease
4. Use and abuse
How well do people convert water into benefit?
Do they damage the resource?
23. 1 Water scarcity
• More people = greater
scarcity per capita
• Pressure points emerging
– Indus
– Yellow
– Limpopo
• But no simple relationship
between availability and
poverty
24. Water availability is one poverty factor…of many
Drought
Poor
Poverty education
Access to
credit
From Sao Francisco
Torres et al., 2008
25. Conclusions about scarcity:
Scarcity: less influential than
we thought
Per capita income vs. water
GNI vs Water
availability
50,000
40,000
GNI ($/cap PPP)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0 Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
-10,000
World Bank, 2008
3
Water availability (m /cap)
26. 2 Access to water
Local to international
% of population with
access to safe drinking water.
(From Gleick, 2001)
27. Who uses the water?
M
M eko ng
1,19 5 b cm
Ganges
1,167 bcm
Sa o Fr a nc i s c o
G
622 bcm
SF
Nile
Ni
2,042 bcm
Capacity limit
1.0
ET Ganges
(normalised) Sao Francisco
Lim popo
229 bcm
L Fish
0.5 Mekong
Volta
Crops
Nile
Limpopo
Yellow River
Livestock
Karkeh Indus
Yellow
YR
384 bcm
0.0 Andean
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
K ar kheh
K
2 1, 4 0 2 mcm
Net runoff Rainfall
Rainfed cropping
Grass (normalised)
Woodland / other
Irrigation
29. How people develop from water use:
Globally, irrigation supports dense populations….
Indus Ganges
Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Irrigated
Irrigated
Woodland +
Woodland +
Grass
Grass
Rainfed
Rainfed
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
population (millions)
Mekong
Yellow
Water use (mcm) Water use (mcm )
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Irrigated Irrigated
Woodland + Woodland +
Grass Grass
Rainfed Rainfed
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
population (m illions)
Relative values better than absolutes
30. …but not in Africa (or Latin America)
Volta Lim popo
Water use (m cm ) Water use (m cm)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Irrigated
Woodland +
Grass
Rainfed
20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0
population (m illions) population (millions)
Sao Francisco Nile
Water use (m cm ) Water use (mcm)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Irrigated
Woodland +
Grass
Rainfed
20 15 10 5 0 200 150 100 50 0
population (m illions) population (millions)
41. Conclusions about access:
• Infrastructure still lacking in many regions: a
service problem
• Widespread problems of water-sharing: A
resource problem
– local to international scale
• Governance a widespread and difficult issue
– Balancing demands of water - land - development
– Balancing demands of many groups of people
45. Conclusions about water-related hazards
• Hazards hit the
poor hardest
• Hazards prevent
critical investment
to get out of
poverty
46. 4 Water use & abuse
– Water productivity must improve to meet demand
47. Water productivity:
In some places responding to demand
0.800
3
Water productivity, kg/m
VN, Mekong Delta
0.600 Vietnam
VN Central
Highlands
0.400
Laos
Cambodia
NE Thailand
0.200
0.000
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year Mac Kirby, 2007
Rice
48. In some places very high
Yellow River water productivity(irrigated)
48
Ringler & Ximing 2009
50. In most places, water productivity is
VERY low: Africa, Latin America
• Crop water productivity
generally very low (<10% of
potential)
• Reflects lower pressure on
land resources
• Livestock, fish important
• Huge potential for
improvement
51. Conclusions about water productivity
• Generally very low
– Major potential for Wpr (estimated potential)
improvement
• Few data on total YR
IGB
benefits and costs
Mekong
– Multiple uses Nile
Limpopo
Volta Niger
– Net productivity
52. Impact of Climate Change
• On scarcity
– Some basins drier, others wetter
– Rainfall patterns changing
• On access (conflict)
– Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult
• Demand for green power
• Flow projections uncertain
• On hazard
– Unprecedented events are unpredictable
• On use
– Investment of co-factors more difficult
Uncertainty brings MAJOR problems
53. Final thoughts
• The water and food crisis is really a development crisis
• How does water constrain development?
• How does development pressurise water resources?
Agriculture vs GNI
50,000
Gross National Income ($/capita)
40,000
30,000 What factors are preventing people
moving “up the slide”?
20,000
10,000
0
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-10,000
Agricultural contribution to GDP (% )
54. Basins differ in their position on a development trajectory
Niger
Volta
% Contribution of agriculture to GDP
Limpopo
IGB Nile
Mekong YR
Sao Karkheh
Francisco Andes
World Bank, 2007
% Rural poor
55. Niger
Agriculture as % of GDP
Agricultural
Volta
Nile
IGB
Limpopo
Transitional
Mekong
Karkheh Yellow
Industrial Andes
Sao Fran
Rural poverty
56. …so the major issues vary between basins
Niger
Agriculture only
Agriculture as % of GDP
Extreme poverty
Low WR development (no irrigation)
Volta
Complex LLH support
(Livestock and fish may dominate)
Nile
IGB
Some sectors Limpopo
moving
Pressure on others
Agriculture ‘left behind?’
Mekong
Increased vulnerability
Karkheh Yellow
Markets very active
Rural poor in pockets
Andes
Improved potential for
Sao Fran
ecosystem services
Rural poverty
57. Conclusions
• There is a water and food threat
– Will cause more crises if not responded to
• Some clearly solvable needs
– Better sharing and infrastructure
– Hazard management
– Improved eco-efficiency (water productivity)
• Solutions depend on political processes
– Resource sharing
– Use valuation
– Assessment under uncertainty