2. A MIXED-USE “SUBURB” AND
GATEWAY TO SWAKOPMUND
BAHNHOFF SQUARE will regenerate railway land at the
entrance to Swakopmund into a mixed-use suburb comprising
• 20 000m² “one-stop” shopping centre
• 4-5 000m² boutique/restaurant retail
• 10 000m² of offices
• >500 apartments
•>10 000m² of big-box retail (Auto showrooms, hardware etc)
The estimated project value over the next 10 years is ± $2 billion, with
the first phase of >25 000m² delivering a one-stop shopping centre, an
office/retail block and motor showrooms.
The vision is to create a quality mixed-use development that will provide
high quality premises for the retailers, residents and shoppers of
Swakopmund.
A development that fits neatly into the existing traffic & shopping
patterns of Swakopmund, makes use of existing infrastructure
investment and co-exists profitably with existing buildings.
3. • Founded 1892 as port for
German/Namibian trade
• Almost 10 000 households,
growing at >3% p.a.
• “Like Hermanus over
Christmas” – population
almost doubles
SWAKOPMUND •
•
±30 000 residents
Distinct German influence in
the town, with much of the
Located on the Western Coast CBD declared a heritage area,
of Namibia, capital of Erongo due to the architectural gems
District and “capital city” of the world’s from the late 1800’s. Many of
uranium mining industry. the German tourists are also
pretty old…
• Walvis Bay, an industrial
town, is situated ±35km to
the south and Henties Bay, a
fishing village, ±75km to the
north.
4. To Henties Bay
± 75km
C34
AT THE HEART
OF SWAKOP
Township
Airfield
Mixed Use
Development B2
To Windhoek
± 350km
CBD
4
To Walvis Bay
± 35km
13. • >9 000 households in primary catchment + 18 000
more in secondary catchment
• Spending power of ±R70 million/month (primary)
• Already world’s 4th biggest producer of uranium, with
more mines to follow
• NamPower building 22MW diesel-fired power plant in
Walvis, seeking site for 800MW coal-fired plant in
Erongo region to support the new mines
FACTS & • N$2 billion to be spent on desalination plants to
support new uranium mines
FIGURES •
•
Gazprom bought into Kudu gas field (2010)
Oil discovered off-shore: 11 billion barrel reserves
(placing Namibia 3rd behind Nigeria & Angola)
• Gecko Group has ambitions to build a new harbour in
Swakop, facilitating production of 1.2 million tons of
sulphuric acid, as well as chemical re-agents needed by
the uranium mines
• A bit like Burgersfort/Lephalale 10 years ago…
** Full Fernridge study available
14. Source: J & B Estates, Swakopmund Council
Other Developments and Langer Heinrich Uranium Management
Mining
• According to Langer Heinrich Uranium Management 5 to 7 new uranium mines are proposed for development with the next 3 to 7 years.
However, the development of these mines are strongly dependant on economic markets and commodity prices. The expected production dates
of these mines may be delayed depending on these economic conditions.
• Mines that are proposed for the next 2 to 4 years include:
Total of ±5,800 mine workers and consultants to enter the
Swakopmund/Walvis Bay population base (increased retail potential)
• Enigma Oil & Gas Exploration received Government approval to move to the first renewal phase for several offshore exploration blocks, starting
from 31 August 2011. Chariot Oil and Gas, another oil and gas exploration company, propose to start drilling off the coast of Walvis Bay and
Swakopmund at the end 0f 2012.
• Australian Based Pancontinental Oil and Gas was granted a petroleum exploration licence for three blocks in the Walvis Bay Basin.
• The Sichuaun Hanlong Group of China made a conditional bid of A$144 million for Australia’s Bannerman Resources. Bannerman is currently
developing the Etango Uranium Project near Swakopmund and has applied for a mining licence.
Copyright 2011: Fernridge Consulting 14
15. Source: 2006 Aerial Photography
Primary Catchment Demographics & 2011 Fieldwork
• Formal Households are also classified by Nett Monthly Income.
These ranges are applied and constantly updated through
research among estate agents and relative literature (we assess C34
the property values per suburb and relate it back to household
income).
• The current demographic data for the primary catchment area
was calculated by using 2006 aerial photography with the
Fernridge Household Points as set out on the previous slide.
• With the help of 2011 fieldwork we determine the current (2011)
household count.
• The primary catchment area currently hosts 9,244 households.
B2
Primary Catchment
Copyright 2011: Fernridge Consulting 15
16. Retail Potential Estimate (RPE) - 2014
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE
SECONDARY CATCHMNET AND
TOURIST MARKET ALSO INCLUDED
DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL FOR
2014 Demographics THE COMBINED CATCHMENT AREA
(excl the D low income category
for the secondary catchment).
• The forecasted 2014 demographics of the Primary Catchment area (with additional support from the secondary catchment and
tourist market also included) warrant a total of ±126,020m² GLA of retail space.
• This model excluded the retail potential of the proposed mines. This potential will be included in the 2017 RPE Model on the
following slide.
• In order for a 25,000m² shopping centre to be deemed feasible by 2014 a market share of ±20% is required – this is considered as a
high market share, given the relatively large size of the secondary catchment.
Important Note: This model uses Average trading densities. In our relationship with retailers we get constant feedback on trading densities actually achieved. Please note the
figures used here are R/ m² selling and used to determine an area’s total retail potential. This is therefore an average of all kinds of retail: old & new, national brands &
independents, in shopping centres & free standing, good & bad performers. Retailers in a new shopping centre typically have to trade at higher trading densities to be viable.
Copyright 2011: Fernridge Consulting 16
17. Shopping centre
• Finalise lease commitments 03/2013
• Finalise funding 04/2013
TARGET •
•
Start construction
Finish construction
06/2013
10/2014
DATES
Big box users: 7-9 months after lease signature
Mixed use: 9-12 months after lease signature
18. MICHAEL SCHIRNIG
michael@alchemyadvisors.co.za
supermarkets, anchor retailers
STEFAN BOTMA
LEASING stefan@alchemyadvisors.co.za
food service, home/decor, electronics, services, outdoor
+27 21 852 6648
TARRYN SMITH
tarryn@alchemyadvisors.co.za
financial services, fashion line-shops, health & beauty,
jewellery, specialities
19. DEVELOPER:
Public Private Partnership between Stacks Property & Transnamib
Holdings
PEOPLE PROFESSIONAL TEAM:
BEHIND Development team: Eris
Urban Design: Osmond Lange
THE Architects: Osmond Lange (Jhb), Barnard Mutua (WHK) &
PROJECT Karen Miller (Swakop)
Quantity Surveyor: Hendrik Herselman
Tenant mix & leasing: Alchemy Advisors
Research: Fernridge
Stacks Property 37 CC