Presentation on Union voting, Pittsburgh, PA. Netroots Nation 2009

1. How Unions Vote: A Retrospective (2000-2008) Tanya Tarr Texas AFT Netroots Nation August 13, 2009

2. Union Vote Battleground States D+26 Source: Hart 11/00, 11/04, 11/08 D+37 D+41

3. 2004 Election Cycle

4. Unions Reached Their Members (% of members in battleground states saying they received election info from each source) Mail to home Union publication Phone call Workplace flyer* Union TV ad Workplace contact* Internet/e-mail Home visit Web site Kerry +46 among members who received 5 or more union contacts. *among active members only 2000 Results 83% 84% 33% 38% N/A 22% N/A N/A N/A

5. Source: Center for Responsive Politics $1.5 Billion $61.6 Million The Corporate Gameplan: Buy Their Wins 2004 Campaign Contributions

6. We know how that ended.

7. 2006 Election Cycle

8. Labor 2006 Senate Battleground States Source: Hart Research 11/2006

9. Labor 2006 by the Numbers Mobilization Registered Union Voters 13,652,871 Local Coordinators 6,345 Volunteers as of 11/8/06 205,000 Worksites as of 11/8/06 6,130 Released staff & AFL-CIO building staff 3,476

10. Labor 2006 by the Numbers Member Contact Fliers as of 11/7/06 13,924,990 National Phones as of 11/7/06 23,122,448 State Phones (Banks & Robos) 6,512,411 Mail as of 11/7/06 19,997,563 Unique flyers 1,003 Unique pieces of mail 977

11. Labor 2006 by the Numbers Working America Members 1.75 million Members recruited in 2006 900,000 Voted for endorsed candidate 75% Cavassers in the Final Four 800 Doors knocked 3 million

12. 2006 Union Members’ House Vote Q.4 Source: Hart Research 11/2006 N on-union voters split their vote 49% to 49% Democrat Previous Years Democrat Republican 2002 68% 32% 2004 70% 30% Democrats’ Advantage All voters +8 -9 -1 -42 -7 -2 -2 Union members +48 +39 +53 +15 +31 +38 +60 All voters White men White women White born-again Weekly churchgoers Rural voters Married women

13. Governors before 2006

14. Governors After 2006

15. Senate before 2006

16. Senate after 2006

17. House before 2006 Dem Held Seat Rep Held Seat Independent

18. House after 2006 Dem Held Seat Rep Held Seat Independent

19. State Legislature before 2006

20. State Legislature after 2006

21. 2008 Election Cycle

22. Early 2008: Members LIKED McCain Source: Quinnipiac, February 2008

24. AFL-CIO Unions Reached Their Members in 2006 Source: Hart Research, November 2008

25. 365 Obama 173 McCain DC 3 11 7 54 2008 Presidential Results 4 5 5 9 3 10 5 3 34 3 3 3 5 6 7 6 11 7 10 10 21 11 17 20 8 11 9 6 9 15 8 15 27 21 5 13 31 4 4 3 12 7 10 15 DE 3 RI 4 4 Updated: 12/8/08 States that switched from red to blue Popular Vote Obama: 69,394,675 (53%) McCain: 59,892,681 (46%) Other: 1,844,625 (1%)

26. 2008 Electoral Vote Breakdown by Union Density * Includes District of Columbia Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2007 Union Density Obama Electoral Votes McCain Electoral Votes States where less than 10% of workforce belongs to union 74 151 States where 10% or more of workforce belongs to union* 291 22 Total Electoral Votes 365 173

27. House Breakdown by AFL-CIO Density 111 th Congress (2009-2011) * Includes actives, householders, retirees and Working America Source: AFL-CIO Member Database; NCEC AFL-CIO Members* As % of Voting Age Population Democratic Seats Republican Seats Districts with fewer than 25,000 AFL-CIO members 86 74 Districts with 25,000 or more AFL-CIO members 171 104 Total House Districts 257 178

28. Union Members’ Presidential Vote +37 Obama Source: Hart Research, November 2008 Vote among nonunion members: 51% Obama , 47% McCain (Exit Poll) Battleground States Obama McCain 69% 28% +41%

29. Working America Presidential Vote Member Profile White Gun-owners NRA Supporters Ticket-splitters Moderate Conservative +37 Obama 88% 33% 26% 40% 39% 21% Source: Hart Research, November 2008

30. The Union Difference (Obama lead among key subgroups) Source: Hart Research, November 2008 General Public -8 -16 -7 -18 -9 -25 -50 +36 +91

31. Looking ahead To 2010 Races

32. 2010 Senate Races AFL-CIO AFL-CIO Dem Incumbent Dem Open Dem Special Election Rep Incumbent Rep Open MN WI MI IN OH IA MO ND SD NE IL KS MT WA OR CA ID WY AK HI NV UT NM CO AZ MA RI CT ME VT NH OK TX AR LA KY TN NC SC GA FL MS AL VA WV PA NY DE DC NJ MD

33. Number of Competitive House Races by State in 2010 None 1-2 3-4 MA RI CT ME VT NH WV PA NY DE DC NJ MD MT WA OR CA ID WY AK HI NV UT NM CO AZ MN WI MI IN OH IA MO ND SD NE IL KS OK TX AR LA KY TN NC SC GA FL MS AL VA

34. State Legislature Control Post-2008 Election AFL-CIO AFL-CIO Both Houses Dem Non-Partisan Both Houses Rep Split Control MA RI CT ME VT NH WV PA NY DE DC NJ MD MT WA OR CA ID WY AK HI NV UT NM CO AZ MN WI MI IN OH IA MO ND SD NE IL KS OK TX AR LA KY TN NC SC GA FL MS AL VA

36. 2010 Governor Races AFL-CIO AFL-CIO Dem Incumbent Dem Open Dem Status Uncertain Rep Incumbent Rep Open Dem Vacated to Join Cabinet MA RI CT ME VT NH WV PA NY DE DC NJ MD MT WA OR CA ID WY AK HI NV UT NM CO AZ MN WI MI IN OH IA MO ND SD NE IL KS OK TX AR LA KY TN NC SC GA FL MS AL VA

37. Roles of Governors in Redistricting Veto Congressional and Legislative Plans Only Veto Congressional Plans Appoints Members of Redistricting Board No Role in Redistricting Directly involved in drawing plans Alabama (D) New Mexico (D) Arkansas (D) Alaska (R) Arizona (D) Arkansas (D) California (R) New York (D) Colorado (D) Colorado (D) Connecticut (R) Maryland (D) Delaware (D) * North Dakota (R) * Florida (R) Indiana (R) Hawaii (R) Ohio (D) Georgia (R) Oklahoma (D) Mississippi (R) Missouri (R) Idaho (R) Illinois ( D) Oregon (D) Missouri (R) Vermont (R) * Montana (D) * Indiana (R) Rhode Island (R) Maryland (D) New Jersey (D) Iowa (D) South Carolina (R) Ohio (D) North Carolina (D) Kansas (D) South Dakota (R) * Pennsylvania (D) Washington (D) Kentucky (R) Tennessee (D) Louisiana (D) Texas (R) Maine (D) Utah (R) Massachusetts (D) Vermont (R) * Michigan (D) Virginia (D) Minnesota (R) West Virginia (D) Nebraska (R) Wisconsin (D) Nevada (R) Wyoming (D) * New Hampshire (D) * Single Congressional District States