This case study deliberates on the need for world governments, corporations and activists to form a united front against impending climate change catastrophes. It discusses causes, consequences and alleviation of mega disasters and inquires on common and shared responsibilities, predicaments, and smart utilization of global human and material resources. Theories of human response to sudden mass disruption and displacement often reckon with principles and practices in aid of managing mega disasters and critical geopolitics. A literature survey extracts serious concern and trends on traditional fixations of spatial imaginations hindering workable resolutions. The case study therefore elicits response to the need for global policies and strategies as nations would chaotically flow into one another in tragic mishandling of disasters. A stakeholders’ triangle of salvation with governments, corporations and activists may confront an impending Climageddon to provide feasible resolution to an end time Toba Event Hypothesis consistent with the climate change debacle.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEO-POLITICS:
WHITHER WORLD LEADERSHIP
BY
TANKO AHMED fwc
SENIOR FELLOW (SECURITY & STRATEGY)
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR POLICY AND STRATEGIC STUDIES
(NIPSS)
KURU – JOS, NIGERIA

2. FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL
WARMING
TO MEGA DISASTERS AND THE ARMAGEDDON
WE ARE BEGINING TO FEEL THE HEAT
OUR PLANET EARTH IS BURNING
WE MUST DO SOMETING

3. SOME CAPTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
 “Last best hope for humanity at the limits of
suicide” – Pope Francis
 “The future of the Planet is at stake”
– French President Hollande
 “We must act now; it’s almost too late”
– American President Barrack Obama
 “The Earth is in Peril”
– British Prime Minister David Cameron
(Gosden & Samuel, 2015)
 “Global warming is now in overdrive: We just hit
a terrible climate milestone”
– Melissa Cronin, 4 March 2016

4. A PROLOGUE
 A dysfunctional world leadership seems caught
off-guard and off-balance in escalating
manifestation of climate change cataclysm;
 This case study deliberates on the need for
world governments, corporations and activists
to form a united front against impending
climate change catastrophes;
 It discusses causes, consequences and
alleviation of mega disasters; and
 It inquires on common and shared
responsibilities, predicaments, and smart
utilization of global human and material
resources.

5. THEORIES AND LITERATURE SURVEY
 Theories of human response to
sudden mass disruption and
displacement often reckon with
principles and practices in aid of
managing mega disasters and critical
geopolitics.
 A literature survey extracts serious
concern and trends on traditional
fixations of spatial imaginations

6. ELICITATION
 This study therefore elicits response to
the need for global policies and strategies
as nations would chaotically flow into one
another in tragic mishandling of
disasters.
 A stakeholders’ triangle of salvation with
governments, corporations and activists
may confront an impending Climageddon
to provide feasible resolution to an end
time Toba Event Hypothesis consistent
with the climate change debacle.

7. INTRODUCTION
“… whatcha gonna do when they come for you
…”
– Bob Marley (1945 – 1981)

8. BACKGROUND
 The rising tide of debate on climate change
is leaning towards demand for committed
leadership and global policy, requiring
leaders to act fast and timely, before it is too
late (Aguirre, 2002; Schneider, et al, 2010;
Chukwukeme, 2015; Wollersheim, 2016).
 Imagine a worst-case-scenario mega
catastrophe on the scale of Toba Event
Hypotheses, an explosive event striking
large populations, like the recent
snowstorms in China and the United States
trapping millions in wide areas.

9. SHOUTING OUT LOUD
 The American President Obama at the United
Nations Sustainable Development Summit
voiced out that all countries will be affected by
a changing climate and climate change
refugees (Lambert, 2015; Hale, 2015).
 Also, Pope Francis warned that the Paris
Conference, latest in a series on climate
change, may be the ‘last best hope’ for a world
pushed to the ‘limits of suicide’ (Hale, 2015).
 In a deeply divided world facing common
threats of annihilation, global leadership seems
caught off-guard and off-balance, in escalating
climatic change cataclysm.

10. A LITERATURE REVIEW
 Literature on climate change emphasises on
human mass migration for safety, comfort or
security; and tends to expand at a seemingly
exponential rate; with increasing
diversification of types of migration and
directional flow (King, 2012).
 As recent events bring forth literary interests
on the subject, there is still no significant
attention paid to the likelihood of major
climate related mega catastrophe (Abramovitz,
et al. 2002; Anderson & Bausch, 2005; Kousky, et al.
2009; Kurekova, 2011; Hyndman, 2014).

11. LITERATURE FOCUS
 Earlier works (Enthoven, 2000; Gupta &
Grubb, 2000) outlined climate change as
major challenge to human kind with far
reaching consequences for a world far away
from mature political and practical policy.
 The situation has gotten worst, as world
leaders are strongly cautioned to listen to
the voices of wisdom and practice from
concerned experts and practitioners
(Sriskandarajah, 2008; Hale, 2015; Wollersheim, 2016)

12. CURRENT TRENDS
 The World Bank Development Research Group on
Environment and Energy Team conducted studies on
how to respond to threats of climate change mega-
catastrophes with a baseline omitting how to face
events of mass migration or relocation to safety
(Kousky, et al. 2009).
 The ‘ecological debts’ and leadership owed weaker
countries by stronger nations are often drowned in
‘green rhetoric’ by leaders responsible for its
escalation as much as its solution (Hale, 2015).
 It is already happening, according to The
Washington Post’s Angela Fritz, as catastrophic
Cyclone Winston bears down on Fiji’s main island in
worst case scenario (Fritz, 2016).

13. THEORIES IN DEBATES
 Theories in debates tend to enhance
constructive and objective reasoning,
especially in wide complex issues like
climate change and geopolitics (Reed, 2011).
 Discourse on climate change and geopolitics
assumes eclectic and inclusive ecosystem at
local, global and cosmic trends.
 Theories of climate change and geopolitics
therefore encapsulate societal features and
processes as universal events and activities
set in cosmic ecosystem.

14. THEORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND GEOPOLITICS
 Theories of climate change and
geopolitics encapsulate societal features,
universal events and activities into a
cosmic ecosystem.
 They cover global warming, bio-activities,
weather, human process, ocean currents,
planetary motion and solar effects.
 A Unified Theory of human and
environment places climate change and
geopolitics as interactive.

15. THE 7 THEORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 Anthropogenic Global Warming;
 Bio-thermostat;
 Cloud Formation and Albedo;
 Human Forcings Besides Greenhouse Gases;
 Ocean Currents;
 Planetary Motion; and
 Solar Variability.

16. THEORIES OF MASS DISRUPTION AND DISLOCATION
 Theories of mass disruption and
dislocation of human activities and
population are in aid of the management
and administration of events at various
scales, from local to global events
(Kurekova, 2011; King, 2012; Hyndman, 2012).
 Recent mega events, mostly associated
with natural disasters, require the
upgrading of approaches to global policy
and strategy.

17. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
 The ‘Seven Theories of Climate Change’ clearly
cover global warming, bio-activities, weather,
human process, ocean currents, planetary
motion and solar effects (Bast, 2010).
 A Unified Theory of human and environment
places climate change and geopolitics as an
interactive process (Nikolov & Zeller, 2011).
 An earlier example of this interactive process
involved human mass displacement and
migration across national borders with climate
change activities as causal factors (Le Treut, et al,
2007).

18. A HYPOTHESIS
Seen from the perspective of critical
geopolitics, global policies and strategies
on climate change mitigate against
explosive mass disruption and dislocation
of human activities and dislocation.

19. PROBLEM
STATEMENT

20. THE PROBLEM
 Seen from the perspective of critical
geopolitics, global policies and strategies on
climate change should be aimed at effective
mitigation against sudden and
overwhelming events at short or no notice at
all anywhere in the world.
 A real world, real time, example of
overwhelming mega events that could
threaten the world system is seen in the
Refugee Surge which threatens the stability
of the so called advanced countries of the
European Union.

21. A GENERAL STATEMENT
 In the event of one or more such
occurrences, the entire world may be caught
off-guard and off-balance, unless, if concrete
measures are at hand for mitigation.
 It is obvious that when these events occur
human activities will be seriously disrupted,
as well as mass dislocation of population, so
much so fast at multiple points across
national and regional borders, interests and
other divides.

22. POINTS OF INQUIRY
 How is the world and humanity ought to
respond to the challenges of managing
climate change and critical geo-political
trends?
 Is the present crop and arrangement of
world leadership capable enough to
handle the scourge?
 Are committed climate change activists
and threatened corporate bodies ready to
assume shared responsibility in global
leadership?

23. SIGNIFICANCE
 These questions and many others are ripe
for debates and operational simulations on
climate change and critical geopolitics,
including risk assessments, policy models
and strategic postulations.
 It is also interesting to note, at this juncture,
that the trio of governments, in pursuit of
national interests; corporations going after
profits; and activists threading on non-state
space may form a triangle of salvation to
rescue the world and humanity.

24. CONCEPTUAL DISCOURSE

25. CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change constitutes
alterations in global weather
patterns witnessed in
temperature fluctuations and
tempestuous activities owing to
atmospheric effluence partly
associated with human ventures
or greenhouse effect.

26. CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS
Critical Geo-Politics sum the
complex interrelationship of
geography, politics and human
population determined by national
boundaries, citizenship, sovereignty,
values and survival of nations which
if disrupted, the world will be in
chaos.

27. CLIMAGEDDON
Climageddon is a combo-word
for ‘climate change’ and
‘armageddon’ inferring the
potency of climate change related
disasters on mega scale (Wollersheim,
2016).

28. MEGA CATASTROPHES
Mega catastrophes are extreme
natural disasters with terrible
consequences often beyond the
control or mitigation of
humankind, like the Toba Event
(Gibbons, 1993).

29. TOBA EVENT HYPOTHESIS
Toba Event Hypothesis holds
that a single super volcanic
eruption caused a global winter
of 6 – 10 years with about 1,000
years of cooling process
(Gibbons, 1993 and 2010).

30. TOBA EVENT HYPOTHESIS
Holds that a single super
volcanic eruption caused a
global winter of 6 – 10 years
with about 1,000 years of
cooling process (Gibbons, 1993 and 2010).

31. MASS MIGRATION
Mass Migration refers to any
significant movement of human
population from one point to
another due to mega
catastrophe disrupting geo-
political arrangement of
nations.

32. CLIMATE CHANGE
AND
CRITICAL
GEOPOLITICS

33. CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS AND NATIONAL SURVIVAL
 Critical geo-politics for national survival
threatened by climate driven mega
disasters may force nations to flow into
each other as human population migrate
away from certain danger.
 In a situation where Governments fail to
serve and protect people, things become
free-for-all for corporations, and the
'people' will take to activism to save the
world.

34. THE WOLLERSHEIM’S CLIMAGEDDON
 Intellectual response to recent events gave
birth to impending events termed as
‘Climageddon’ in which climate change
events are considered as potential agents of
Armageddon.
 Lawrence Wollersheim (2016) in the
oncoming book ‘Climageddon: The Global
Warming and How to Survive It’ relates a
universal confusion on issues of possible
mega disasters and what to do next.

35. EARLIER WARNINGS
 Aguirre (2002) had earlier reviewed
natural and technological hazards and
identified unresolved issues on global
disaster mitigation requiring critical
geopolitical States’ policies and
strategies.
 It still remains doubtful whether national
and international policy makers are yet
willing or able to act to prevent or mitigate
the displacement impacts of climate
change (Sriskandarajah, 2008).

36. SIGNS OF THE
OBVIOUS

37. THE RUDE AWAKENING AND GREEN RHETORIC
 Recent major disasters capable of displacing human
habitation and activities at mega scale include
avalanche, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption,
landslide, flood, snowstorms, windstorms, ocean
surge, heat wave, severe weather and wildfire.
 The Norwegian Refugee Council confirmed that mega
disasters drove more than 22 million people from
home, more than wars and conflicts.
 The super Typhoon Haiyan of Philippines
demonstrated capacity to destroy homes in seconds
and turn entire communities into rubbles in few
minutes.
 These combine to form a rude awakening for a world
long comforted with ‘green rhetoric’ www.foe.co.uk.

38. REAL WORLD MEGA EVENTS
 The State of California in the USA is as dry as bone with
effects out of an apocalyptic movie, cities ran out of
water, communities fought over water rations, local
governments rationing with steep fines, fires ravaging
the land, and all creatures threatened (Miles, 2014).
 A Category 5 Catastrophic Cyclone Winston had swept
Fiji Islands in the Pacific Ocean at the speed of 150mph
or 240kph, almost off the chart as the Dvorak placed its
escalation at Scale 8, the last mark, with speed of
180mph or 295kph (Fritz, 2016).
 A Climageddon situation of Toba Event scale is already
here inflicting mass disruption, destruction and
migration.

39. POSSIBLE STATE SPONSORED MASS MIGRATION
 Possible State initiated and sponsored mass
migration for survival of its citizens should be seen
as an impeding natural trend in environmental
security (Gaan, 1990; Dijkink, 1996; Abramovitz, et al. 2002;
Anderson & Bausch, 2006; Hyndman, 2014; Wollersheim, 2016).
 The recent North American snowstorm had
threatened not less than 85 million people in 20 states
of the United States of America.
 This paper presumes that a continued occurrence
and increased intensity of mega disasters such as
this, particularly in the advanced northern
hemisphere countries would eventually necessitate
mass migration or exodus of people from one country
or region to another.

40. STAKEHOLDER
TRILOGY OF
GOVERNMENT,
CORPORATION AND
ACTIVISM

41. A TRILOGY OF STAKEHOLDERS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
 Major stakeholders engaged in the climate change saga
and its outcome consists of the trilogy of governments,
corporations and activism (Anan, 2000; Figueres & Ivanova,
2002; Drexhage, 2008; Ihlen, 2009; Biermann & Boas, 2010; O’Flaherty,
2015).
 Governments possess political authority in control of
human and material resources on the global platform.
 Corporations own and control private business,
governance or professional activities cutting across
national borders.
 Activism mobilizes vigorous and aggressive actions in
checking excesses of governments and corporations.
 A trilogy of these stakeholders would be capable of
forming a formidable front to confront climate change in
its causal, consequential and containment outcomes.

42. TOWARDS A GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE
 Figueres & Ivanova (2002) address the challenges of
global environmental governance and explore on
causal responsibility for climate change; its
consequences; responses; and what to do.
 Emphasis on building a global climate regime among
nations; linkage and consultations; technological
competence; and paradigm shift in values all require
effective collaboration, cooperation and coordination
of major stakeholders.
 From Climate Change Conferences’ agreements to
the Global Earth Hour series’ observance, the main
thrust is to get single individuals and larger formal
groupings of stakeholders to be aware, and then do
something about it.

43. WHITHER WORLD
LEADERSHIP FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE
MITIGATION

44. GLOBAL EFFORTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
 Series of global climate conferences at Montreal: 2005, Bali: 2007,
Copenhagen: 2009, Cancun: 2010, Durban: 2011, Warsaw: 2013.
Lima: 2014, and Paris: 2015 all point to the need for global
leadership.
 Global public policy, legal framework and political action are
hindered by the inability of world leaders to collaborate, cooperate
and coordinate a global strategic plan to checkmate climate
change mega catastrophe (Chukwukeme, 2015).
 This is supported by the World Development Report 2015 that
illustrates a more realistic and cooperative decision making and
behavior among leadership of the world which will bring more
effective policies and strategies in human affairs (World Bank
Group, 2015).
 The world is therefore faced with acute shortage of a committed
political leadership able to harness human and other resources to
counter the challenges of climate change effectively at global
scale.

45. INITIAL CONFUSION ON MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE
 Initial confusion on managing climate change is
perfectly reflected in the politics of naming
storms.
 Olejarski (2016) explains that hurricanes were
originally named after Saints, then phonetic
alphabets to politicians and gender
controversies.
 This trend brought in politicians, corporations
and activists into loggerheads, for the sake of
increased disaster risk awareness,
preparedness, management and reduction.
 The world and humanity face acute trial period
of no retreat no surrender as there is no option

46. A TRIANGLE OF SALVATION

47. PEOPLES OF THE WORLD
 The opening phrase of the United Nations’
Charter ‘we the peoples of the United Nations
…’ has taken a generational leap powered by
the information and communication technology
(ICT) revolution.
 A peoples’ global mind is described by Barsh,
Brown & Kain (2016) as part of one
electronically based, intercommunicating
network sharing real time experiences in
planetary universal mode.
 A new generation of ‘peoples of the world’ is
already in place, facing a relentless climate
change debacle capable of mass disruption and

48. A TRIANGLE OF SALVATION
 The stage is set for getting all stakeholders
aboard a resilient planet of smart human
creatures able to turn around the negative trend
of climate change.
 What is needed now is a trilogy of governments
with regulatory commitments and enforcement
zeal; corporations with pro-earth business
models and practices; and sound worldwide
activism with local to global inclusiveness.
 This ‘triangle of salvation’ formed and
controlled by a worldwide universal and
inclusive leadership could redirect awareness
away from self-destructive conflicts to the

49. THANK YOU

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