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What is Six Sigma?
Basics

 A new way of doing business
 Wise application of statistical tools within
 a structured methodology
 Repeated application of strategy to
 individual projects
 Projects selected that will have a
 substantial impact on the ‘bottom line’
Six Sigma


        A scientific and practical method to achieve
               improvements in a company


              Scientific:
              • Structured approach.                    “Show me
              • Assuming quantitative data.              the data”
”Show me
the money”    Practical:
              • Emphasis on financial result.
              • Start with the voice of the customer.
Where can Six Sigma be applied?

                      Service
                                    Design
      Management

                                              Purchase



Administration         Six Sigma
                       Methods               Production



                                              IT
            Quality
            Depart.
                      HRM          M&S
The Six Sigma Initiative
      integrates these efforts




Knowledge
Management
‘Six Sigma’ companies
 Companies who have successfully
 adopted ‘Six Sigma’ strategies include:
GE “Service company” - examples

 Approving a credit card application
 Installing a turbine
 Lending money
 Servicing an aircraft engine
 Answering a service call for an appliance
 Underwriting an insurance policy
 Developing software for a new CAT product
 Overhauling a locomotive
General Electric
• In 1995 GE mandated each employee to work towards
achieving 6 sigma
• The average process at GE was 3 sigma in 1995
• In 1997 the average reached 3.5 sigma
• GE’s goal was to reach 6 sigma by 2001
• Investments in 6 sigma training and projects reached
45MUS$ in 1998, profits increased by 1.2BUS$

“the most important initiative GE has ever
undertaken”.              Jack Welch
                              Chief Executive Officer
                              General Electric
MOTOROLA
   “At Motorola we use statistical methods daily
   throughout all of our disciplines to synthesize an
   abundance of data to derive concrete actions….
   How has the use of statistical methods within
   Motorola Six Sigma initiative, across disciplines,
   contributed to our growth? Over the past decade we
   have reduced in-process defects by over 300 fold,
   which has resulted in cumulative manufacturing cost
   savings of over 11 billion dollars”*.
                                         Robert W. Galvin
                                         Chairman of the Executive Committee
                                         Motorola, Inc.
*From the forward to MODERN INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS by Kenett and Zacks, Duxbury, 1998
Positive quotations
 “If you’re an average Black Belt, proponents say
  you’ll find ways to save $1 million each year”
 “Raytheon figures it spends 25% of each sales
  dollar fixing problems when it operates at four
  sigma, a lower level of efficiency. But if it raises
  its quality and efficiency to Six Sigma, it would
  reduce spending on fixes to 1%”
 “The plastics business, through rigorous Six
  Sigma process work , added 300 million pounds
  of new capacity (equivalent to a ‘free plant’),
  saved $400 million in investment and will save
  another $400 million by 2000”
Negative quotations
 “Because managers’ bonuses are tied to Six
  Sigma savings, it causes them to fabricate
  results and savings turn out to be phantom”
 “Marketing will always use the number that
  makes the company look best …Promises are
  made to potential customers around capability
  statistics that are not anchored in reality”
 “ Six Sigma will eventually go the way of the
  other fads”
Barriers to implementation

Barrier #1: Engineers and managers are not interested in
mathematical statistics
Barrier #2: Statisticians have problems communicating with
managers and engineers
Barrier #3: Non-statisticians experience “statistical anxiety”
which has to be minimized before learning can take place
Barrier # 4: Statistical methods need to be matched to
management style and organizational culture
MB B
                                   BB           Master
            Statisticians                     Black Belts
                                Black Belts
Technical
  Skills

                                  Quality Improvement
                                      Facilitators



                            Soft Skills
Reality
 Six Sigma through the correct application
  of statistical tools can reap a company
  enormous rewards that will have a positive
  effect for years
or
 Six Sigma can be a dismal failure if not
  used correctly
 ISRU, CAMT and Sauer Danfoss will
  ensure the former occurs
Six Sigma
 The precise definition of Six Sigma is
 not important; the content of the program
 is
 A disciplined quantitative approach for
 improvement of defined metrics
 Can be applied to all business
 processes, manufacturing, finance and
 services
Focus of Six Sigma*
 Accelerating fast breakthrough
  performance
 Significant financial results in 4-8
  months
 Ensuring Six Sigma is an extension of
  the Corporate culture, not the program
  of the month
 Results first, then culture change!
  *Adapted from Zinkgraf (1999), Sigma Breakthrough
  Technologies Inc., Austin, TX.
Six Sigma: Reasons for Success

 The Success at Motorola, GE and
  AlliedSignal has been attributed to:

     Strong leadership (Jack Welch, Larry
      Bossidy and Bob Galvin personally involved)
     Initial focus on operations
     Aggressive project selection (potential
      savings in cost of poor quality >
      $50,000/year)
     Training the right people
The right way!
 Plan for “quick wins”
     Find good initial projects - fast wins
 Establish resource structure
     Make sure you know where it is
 Publicise success
     Often and continually - blow that trumpet
 Embed the skills
     Everyone owns successes
The Six Sigma metric
Consider a 99% quality level

 5000 incorrect surgical operations per
 week!
 200,000 wrong drug prescriptions per
 year!
 2 crash landings at most major airports
 each day!
 20,000 lost articles of mail per hour!
Not very satisfactory!

 Companies should strive for ‘Six Sigma’
 quality levels
 A successful Six Sigma programme can
 measure and improve quality levels across
 all areas within a company to achieve
 ‘world class’ status
 Six Sigma is a continuous improvement
 cycle
Scientific method (after Box)


        Data
        Facts
                     INDUCTION                      INDUCTION



        Theory
        Hypothesis                DEDUCTION                     DEDUCTION
        Conjecture
        Idea
        Model                          Plan


                                 Act           Do

                                       Check
Improvement cycle
 PDCA cycle

                Plan


        Act            Do


               Check

                            23
Alternative interpretation

                       Prioritise (D)

   Hold                                 Measure (M)
 gains (C)




Improve (I)                                Interpret
                                           (D/M/A)
                    Problem (D/M/A)
                          solve
Statistical background

   Some Key measure




        Target = µ
Statistical background
      ‘Control’ limits

            +/ − 3σ




          Target = µ
Statistical background
         Required Tolerance
LSL                            USL
                +/ − 3σ




              Target = µ
Statistical background

           Tolerance
LSL                            USL
                +/ − 3σ




              Target = µ

                +/ − 6σ
              Six-Sigma
Statistical background

              Tolerance
LSL                                  USL
                   +/ − 3σ




       1350                   1350
       ppm                    ppm



                 Target = µ

                   +/ − 6σ
Statistical background

                 Tolerance
   LSL                                  USL
                      +/ − 3σ




          1350                   1350
          ppm                    ppm
0.001                                     0.001
ppm                                       ppm


                    Target = µ

                      +/ − 6σ
Statistical background


 Six-Sigma allows for un-foreseen
  ‘problems’ and longer term issues
  when calculating failure error or
  re-work rates
 Allows for a process ‘shift’
Statistical background

              Tolerance
  LSL                                   USL
                     1. 5σ




        3.4                     66803
0 ppm   ppm                     ppm       3.4
                                          ppm


                            µ

                  +/ − 6σ
Performance Standards



   σ             PPM             Yield
   2             308537        69.1%
   3              66807        93.3%        Current standard
   4               6210        99.38%
   5                233        99.977%
                                              World Class
   6                3.4        99.9997%
  Process        Defects per    Long term
performance        million        yield
Performance standards

  First Time Yield in multiple stage process

Number of processes    3σ     4σ      5σ       6σ
          1           93.32 99.379 99.9767 99.99966
         10           50.09 93.96 99.77 99.9966
        100            0.1   53.64 97.70    99.966
        500             0     4.44  89.02    99.83
       1000             0      0.2  79.24    99.66
       2000             0       0   62.75    99.32
       2955             0       0   50.27     99.0
Financial Aspects

Benefits of 6σ approach w.r.t. financials

σ-level Defect rate Costs of poor quality Status of the
          (ppm)                             company
   6        3.4       < 10% of turnover    World class
   5       233       10-15% of turnover
   4       6210      15-20% of turnover Current standard
   3      66807      20-30% of turnover
   2     308537      30-40% of turnover    Bankruptcy
Six Sigma and other
Quality programmes
Comparing three recent developments
     in “Quality Management”


   ISO 9000 (-2000)
   EFQM Model
   Quality Improvement and Six
   Sigma Programs
ISO 9000

 Proponents claim that ISO 9000 is a
  general system for Quality Management
 In fact the application seems to involve
     an excessive emphasis on Quality Assurance,
      and
     standardization of already existing systems
      with little attention to Quality Improvement
 It would have been better if improvement
 efforts had preceded standardization
Critique of ISO 9000

 Bureaucratic, large scale
 Focus on satisfying auditors, not customers
 Certification is the goal; the job is done when
  certified
 Little emphasis on improvement
 The return on investment is not transparent
 Main driver is:
      We need ISO 9000 to become a certified supplier,
      Not “we need to be the best and most cost effective
       supplier to win our customer’s business”
 Corrupting influence on the quality profession
EFQM Model
 A tool for assessment: Can measure where we
  are and how well we are doing
 Assessment is a small piece of the bigger
  scheme of Quality Management:
    Planning

    Control

    Improvement

 EFQM provides a tool for assessment, but no
  tools, training, concepts and managerial
  approaches for improvement and planning
The “Success” of Change
            Programs?

   “Performance improvement efforts …
          have as much impact on
   operational and financial results as a
ceremonial rain dance has on the weather”

                     Schaffer and Thomson,
                 Harvard Business Review (1992)
Change Management:
    Two Alternative Approaches
                           Activity Centered
                               Programs
  Change
 Management
                           Result Oriented
                              Programs

Reference: Schaffer and Thomson, HBR, Jan-Feb. 1992
Activity Centered Programs
 Activity Centered Programs: The pursuit of
  activities that sound good, but contribute little
  to the bottom line
 Assumption: If we carry out enough of the
  “right” activities, performance improvements
  will follow
      This many people have been trained
      This many companies have been certified
 Bias Towards Orthodoxy: Weak or no
  empirical evidence to assess the relationship
  between efforts and results
ISO 9000
Data


 Deduction Induction



Hypothesis
No Checking with Empirical Evidence, No
          Learning Process
An Alternative:
Result-Driven Improvement Programs
 Result-Driven Programs: Focus on
  achieving specific, measurable, operational
  improvements within a few months
 Examples of specific measurable goals:
     Increase yield
     Reduce delivery time
     Increase inventory turns
     Improved customer satisfaction
     Reduce product development time
Result Oriented Programs

 Project based
 Experimental
 Guided by empirical evidence
 Measurable results
 Easier to assess cause and effect
 Cascading strategy
Why Transformation
            Efforts Fail!
 John Kotter, Professor, Harvard Business
    School
 Leading scholar on Change Management
 Lists 8 common errors in managing
    change, two of which are:
  •   Not establishing a sense of urgency
  •   Not systematically planning for and
      creating short term wins
Six Sigma Demystified*
Six Sigma is TQM in disguise, but this
  time the focus is:

      Alignment of customers, strategy, process
       and people
      Significant measurable business results
      Large scale deployment of advanced
       quality and statistical tools
      Data based, quantitative
 *Adapted from Zinkgraf (1999), Sigma Breakthrough
 Technologies Inc., Austin, TX.
Keys to Success*


 Set clear expectations for results
 Measure the progress (metrics)
 Manage for results


*Adapted from Zinkgraf (1999), Sigma Breakthrough
Technologies Inc., Austin, TX.
Key personnel in
successful Six Sigma
    programmes
Black Belts
 Six Sigma practitioners who are
 employed by the company using the Six
 Sigma methodology
 work full time on the implementation of problem
 solving & statistical techniques through projects
 selected on business needs
 become recognised ‘Black Belts’ after
 embarking on Six Sigma training programme
 and completion of at least two projects which
 have a significant impact on the ‘bottom-line’
Black Belt requirements


        Black Belt required resources
-Training in statistical methods.
-Time to conduct the project!
-Software to facilitate data analysis.
-Permissions to make required changes!!
-Coaching by a champion – or external support.
Black Belt role!


       In other words the Black Belt is
-Empowered.


-In the sense that it was always meant!


-As the theroists have been saying for years!
Champions or ‘enablers’
 High-level managers who champion Six
 Sigma projects
 they have direct support from an
 executive management committee
 orchestrate the work of Six Sigma Black
 Belts
 provide Black Belts with the necessary
 backing at the executive level
Further down the line - after initial Six Sigma
          implementation package
 Master Black Belts
 Black Belts who have reached an acquired level
 of statistical and technical competence
 Provide expert advice to Black Belts


 Green Belts
 Provide assistance to Black Belts in Six Sigma
 projects
 Undergo only two weeks of statistical and
 problem solving training
Six Sigma instructors (ISRU)
 Aim: Successfully integrate the Six Sigma
  methodology into a company’s existing culture
  and working practices
 Key traits
 Knowledge of statistical techniques
 Ability to manage projects and reach closure
 High level of analytical skills
 Ability to train, facilitate and lead teams to
 success, ‘soft skills’
Six Sigma training
     package
Aim of training package


To successfully integrate Six Sigma
 methodology into Sauer Danfoss’
 culture and attain significant
 improvements in quality, service and
 operational performance
Six-Sigma - A “Roadmap” for improvement

    Define                Select a project


    Measure     Prepare for assimilating information


    Analyze      Characterise the current situation


    Improve            Optimize the process


    Control          Assure the improvements



                 DMAIC
Example of a Classic Training strategy

   Define
                 Throughput time project
  Measure
                   4 months (full time)

  Analyze


                     Training (1 week)
  Improve
                      Work on project
                        (3 weeks)
   Control                Review
ISRU program content
 Week 1 - Six Sigma introductory week
 (Deployment phase)
 Weeks 2-5 - Main Black Belt training
 programme
   Week 2 - Measurement phase
   Week 3 - Analysis phase
   Week 4 - Improve phase
   Week 5 - Control phase
 Project support for Six Sigma Black Belt
 candidates
 Access to ISRU’s distance learning facility
Draft training schedule

                                                                                       Jan 2003                Feb 2003                Mar 2003                 Apr 2003                   May 2003               Jun 2003                     Jul 2003
No.       Black Belt work package tasks          Start      End       Duration
                                                                                 1/5    1/12 1/19 1/26   2/2   2/9   2/16 2/23   3/2   3/9   3/16 3/23 3/30   4/6   4/13 4/20 4/27   5/4   5/11 5/18 5/25   6/1   6/8   6/15 6/22 6/29   7/6     7/13 7/20 7/27


 1    Champions Day                             03/02/03   03/02/03      1d


 2    Intial 3-day Black belt sessions          04/02/03   06/02/03      3d


 3    Administration Day                        07/02/03   07/02/03      1d


 4    Project support (W orkshop 1)             11/02/03   11/02/03      1d

      Black Belt training (Measurement
 5                                              17/02/03   21/02/03      1w
      phase)

 6    Project support (W orkshop2)              25/03/03   25/03/03      1d


 7    Black Belt training (Analysis phase)      14/04/03   18/04/03      1w


 8    Project support (W orkshop 3)             06/05/03   06/05/03      1d


 9    Black Belt training (Improvement phase)   26/05/03   30/05/03      1w


10    Project support (W orkshop 4)             17/06/03   17/06/03      1d


11    Black Belt training (Control phase)       07/07/03   11/07/03      1w


12    Project support (Follow up)               29/07/03   30/07/03      2d
Training programme delivery

 Lectures supported by appropriate technology
   Video case studies
   Games and simulations
   Experiments and workshops
   Exercises
   Defined projects
   Delegate presentations
   Homework!
5 weeks of training
       Define




      Measure



       Analyze



      Improve




       Control
Deployment (Define) phase
 Topics covered include

 Team Roles
 Presentation skills
 Project management skills
 Group techniques
 Quality
 Pitfalls to Quality Improvement projects
 Project strategies
 Minitab introduction
Measurement phase
 Topics covered include:

 Quality Tools
 Risk Assessment
 Measurements
 Capability & Performance
 Measurement Systems Analysis
 Quality Function Deployment
 FMEA
Example - QFD
 A method for meeting customer
  requirements
 Uses tools and techniques to set product
  strategies
 Displays requirements in matrix diagrams,
  including ‘House of Quality’
 Produces design initiatives to satisfy
  customer and beat competitors
House Of Quality            5. Tradeoff
                               matrix

         Importance         3. Product
                          characteristics




          1. Customer    4. Relationship    2. Competitive
         requirements         matrix        assessment




          6. Technical assessment and
                  target values
QFD can reduce

 Lead-times - the time to market and time
  to stable production

 Start-up costs

 Engineering changes
Analysis phase
 Topics include:

 Hypothesis testing
 Comparing samples
 Confidence Intervals
 Multi-Vari analysis
 ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)
 Regression
Improvement phase
 Topics include:

 History of Design of Experiments (DoE)
 DoE Pre-planning and Factors
 DoE Practical workshop
 DoE Analysis
 Response Surface Methodology (Optimisation)
 Lean Manufacturing
Example - Design of Experiments



  What can it do for you?

 Minimum cost     Maximum output
What does it involve?

 Brainstorming sessions to identify
  important factors
 Conducting a few experimental trials
 Recognising significant factors which
  influence a process
 Setting these factors to get maximum
  output
Control phase
 Topics include:

 Control charts
 SPC case studies
 EWMA
 Poka-Yoke
 5S
 Reliability testing
 Business impact assessment
Example - SPC (Statistical Process Control)

- reduces variability and keeps the process stable
     Disturbed
      process
                                             Temporary
                        Natural process        upsets
                         Natural boundary




                          Natural boundary
Results of SPC


 An improvement in the process
 Reduction in variation
 Better control over process
 Provides practical experience of
  collecting useful information for analysis
 Hopefully some enthusiasm for
  measurement!
Project support
 Initial ‘Black Belt’ projects will be considered in
  Week 1 by Executive management committee,
  ‘Champions’ and ‘Black Belt’ candidates

 Projects will be advanced significantly during
 the training programme via:
 continuous application of newly acquired statistical
 techniques
 workshops and on-going support from ISRU and CAMT
 delivery of regular project updates by ‘Black Belt’
 candidates
Project execution


                    Black Belt

           Review                 Training



 ISRU,                                       ISRU
Champion            Application



                       ISRU,
                      Champion
Conducting projects

          Traditional                         Six Sigma
-Project leader is obliged to        -Black Belt is obliged to
make an effort.                      achieve financial results.
-Set of tools .                      -Well-structured method.
-Focus on technical knowledge.       -Focus on experimentation.
-Project leader is left to his own   -Black Belt is coached by
devices.                             champion.
-Results are fuzzy.                  -Results are quantified.
-Safe targets.                       -Stretched targets.
-Projects conducted “on the          -Projects are top priority.
side”.
The right support
        +
The right projects
        +
 The right people
         +
  The right tools
        +
  The right plan
        =
 The right results
Champions Role
• Communicate vision and progress

• Facilitate selecting projects and people

• Track the progress of Black Belts

• Breakdown barriers for Black Belts

• Create supporting systems
Champions Role

• Measure and report Business Impact

• Lead projects overall

• Overcome resistance to Change

• Encourage others to Follow
Project selection


            Define
Select:
- the project
- the process
- the Black Belt
- the potential savings
- time schedule
- team
Project selection

Projects may be selected according to:

3. A complete list of requirements of customers.

5. A complete list of costs of poor quality.

7. A complete list of existing problems or targets.

9. Any sensible meaningful criteria

11. Usually improves bottom line - but exceptions
Key Quality Characteristics
         “CTQs”

  How will you measure them?
  How often?
  Who will measure?
  Is the outcome critical or important
  to results?
Outcome Examples

Reduce defective parts per million
Increased capacity or yield
Improved quality
Reduced re-work or scrap
Faster throughput
Key Questions

Is this a new product - process?
Yes - then potential six-sigma
Do you know how best to run a
process?
No - then potential six-sigma
Key Criteria

Is the potential gain enough - e.g. -
saving > $50,000 per annum?
Can you do this within 3-4 months?
Will results be usable?
Is this the most important issue at the
moment?
Why is ISRU an effective
Six Sigma practitioner?
Reasons

 Because we are experts in the application
  of industrial statistics and managing the
  accompanying change
 We want to assist companies in improving
  performance thus helping companies to
  greater success
 We will act as mentors to staff embarking
  on Six Sigma programmes
INDUSTRIAL
       STATISTICS
     RESEARCH UNIT
We are based in the School of Mechanical and
Systems Engineering, University of Newcastle upon
Tyne, England
Mission statement



 "To promote the effective and
widespread use of statistical
methods throughout European
industry."
The work we do can be broken
   down into 3 main categories:

 Consultancy
 Training
 Major Research Projects

   All with the common goal of promoting quality
   improvement by implementing statistical
   techniques
Consultancy
We have long term one to one consultancies
 with large and small companies, e.g.

 Transco
 Prescription Pricing Agency
 Silverlink

 To name but a few
Training
In-House courses
 SPC
 QFD
 Design of Experiments
 Measurement Systems Analysis
On-Site courses
 As above, tailored courses to suit the company
 Six Sigma programmes
European projects

 The Unit has provided the statistical input into
  many major European projects
Examples include -
 Use of sensory panels to assess butter quality
 Using water pressures to detect leaks
 Assessing steel rail reliability
 Testing fire-fighter’s boots for safety
European projects

 Eurostat - investigating the multi-dimensional
  aspects of innovation using the Community
  Innovation Survey (CIS) II
- 17 major European countries involved
  -determining the factors that influence
  innovation
 Certified Reference materials for assessing
  water quality - validating EC Laboratories
 New project - ‘Effect on food of the taints
and odours in packaging materials’
Typical local projects
 Assessment of environmental risks in
  chemical and process industries
 Introduction of statistical process control
  (SPC) into a micro-electronics company
 Helping to develop a new catheter for
  open-heart surgery via designed
  experiments (DoE)
 ‘Restaurant of the Year’ & ‘Pub of the Year’
  competitions!
Benefits


Better monitoring of processes
Better involvement of people
Staff morale is raised
Throughput is increased
Profits go up
Examples of past successes

 Down time cut by 40% - Villa soft drinks
 Waste reduced by 50% - Many projects
 Stock holding levels halved - Many
  projects
 Material use optimised saving £150k pa -
  Boots
 Expensive equipment shown to be
  unnecessary - Wavin
Examples of past successes

 Faster Payment of Bills (cut by 30 days)
 Scrap rates cut by 80%
 New orders won (e.g £100,000 for an
  SME)
 Cutting stages from a process
 Reduction in materials use (Paper - Ink)
Distance Learning
     Facility
Distance Learning


          or Flexible training
          or Open Learning

            your time
            your place
            your study pattern
            your pace
Distance Learning
 http://www.ncl.ac.uk/blackboard
 Clear descriptions
 Step by step guidelines
 Case studies
 Web links, references
 Self assessment exercises in ‘Microsoft
  Excel’ and ‘Minitab’
 Help line and discussion forum
 Essentially a further learning resource for Six
  Sigma tools and methodology
Case study
Case study: project selection
                      Savings:
    Coffee            -Savings on rework and scrap
    beans             -Water costs less than coffee

     Roast            Potential savings:
                      500 000 Euros
     Cool

     Grind
                Moisture
     Pack       content

    Sealed
    coffee
Case study: Measure


1. Select the Critical to Quality (CTQ)
   characteristic
2. Define performance standards
3. Validate measurement system
Case study: Measure

          1. CTQ

  Moisture contents of
  roasted coffee


        2. Standards
- Unit: one batch
- Defect: Moisture% > 12.6%
Case study: Measure

3. Measurement reliability

Gauge R&R study


 Measurement system
 too unreliable!


             So fix it!!
Case study: Analyse


            Analyse
4. Establish product capability
5. Define performance
    objectives
6. Identify influence factors
Improvement opportunities

                    USL




   USL
Diagnosis of problem




               CTQ
CTQ




              CTQ
CTQ
Discovery of causes

                                                  6. Identify factors
     Man          Machine        Material
                                            -Brainstorming
                                            -Exploratory data analysis
              Roasting
              machines
                                Batch
                                 size

                                                    Moisture%
 Amount of       Reliability    Weather
added water   of Quadra Beam   conditions




 Method         Measure-       Mother
                 ment          Nature
Discovery of causes


Control chart for moisture%
A case study
        Potential influence factors


- Roasting machines (Nuisance variable)
- Weather conditions (Nuisance variable)
- Stagnations in the transport system
  (Disturbance)
- Batch size (Nuisance variable)
- Amount of added water (Control
  variable)
Case study: Improve


           Improve
7. Screen potential causes
8. Discover variable
    relationships
9. Establish operating
    tolerances
Case study: Improve

7. Screen potential causes

- Relation between humidity and moisture
  % not established
- Effect of stagnations confirmed
- Machine differences confirmed


8. Discover variable relationships

Design of Experiments (DoE)
Experimentation

                               How do we often conduct experiments?
                                                Experiments are run based on: Intuition
                                                                              Knowledge
                                                                              Experience
                                                                              Power
                                                                              Emotions
Possible settings for X2




                                       X
                                                            X
                                                                              X: Settings with which
                                   X                                          an experiment is run.
                                                        X
                                                                X
                                            X                                  Actually:
                           X                                                   • we’re just trying
                                                                               • unsystematical
                                                                               • no design/plan
                                  Possible settings for X1
Experimentation
                           A systematical experiment: Organized / discipline
                                                      One factor at a time
                                                      Other factors kept constant


                                               X                            Procedure:
Possible settings for X2




                                                                            X: First vary X1; X2 is kept constant
                                               X
                                               X                            O: Optimal value for X1.
                             X X X X X X XO X        X   X
                                          X                                 X: Vary X2; X1 is kept constant.
                                          X
                                          X                                   : Optimal value (???)




                                    Possible settings for X1
Design of Experiments (DoE)
                                   One factor (X)

                                         X1               1
                                                      2
                             low               high



    Two factors (X’s)                                 Three factors (X’s)
 high
                                              high

        X2                   2
                         2
                                                                                3
                                                                            2
                                                X2
 low         X1
                        high
                                                                      X3
                                               low            X1   high
Advantages of multi-factor
     over one-factor
A case study: Experiment



Experiment:
Y: moisture%
X1: Water (liters)
X2: Batch size (kg)
A case study



  9. Establish operating tolerances

Feedback adjustments for influence
of weather conditions
A case study: feedback adjustments




           Moisture% without adjustments
A case study: feedback adjustments




            Moisture% with adjustments
Case study: Control


           Control
10. Validate measurement
   system (X’s)
11. Determine process
   capability
12. Implement process controls
Results

     Before
σlong-term = 0.532


   Objective
σlong-term < 0.280


     Result
σlong-term < 0.100
Benefits

         Benefits of this project
σlong-term < 0.100
Ppk = 1.5
This enables us to increase the mean to
12.1%

Per 0.1% coffee: 100 000 Euros saving


        Benefits of this project:

       1 100 000 Euros per year
               Approved by controller
Case study: control
 12. Implement process controls
- SPC control loop
- Mistake proofing
- Control plan
- Audit schedule



                               Project closure
                     - Documentation of the results and
                       data.
                     - Results are reported to involved
                       persons.
                     - The follow-up is determined
Six Sigma approach to this project

- Step-by-step approach.
- Constant testing and double checking.
- No problem fixing, but: explanation → control.
- Interaction of technical knowledge and
  experimentation methodology.
- Good research enables intelligent decision
  making.
- Knowing the financial impact made it easy to find
  priority for this project.
Re-cap I!
 Structured approach – roadmap
 Systematic project-based improvement
 Plan for “quick wins”
     Find good initial projects - fast wins
 Publicise success
     Often and continually - blow that trumpet
 Use modern tools and methods
 Empirical evidence based improvement
Re-cap II!

 DMAIC is a basic ‘training’ structure
 Establish your resource structure
  - Make sure you know where external help is
 Key ingredient is the support for projects
  - It’s the project that ‘wins’ not the training itself
 Fit the training programme around the
  company needs
  - not the company around the training
 Embed the skills
  - Everyone owns the successes
ENBIS

All joint authors - presenters - are members of:
Pro-Enbis or ENBIS.
This presentation is supported by Pro-Enbis a
Thematic Network funded under the ‘Growth’
programme of the European Commission’s 5th
Framework research programme - contract
number G6RT-CT-2001-05059

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Six sigma

  • 1. What is Six Sigma?
  • 2. Basics  A new way of doing business  Wise application of statistical tools within a structured methodology  Repeated application of strategy to individual projects  Projects selected that will have a substantial impact on the ‘bottom line’
  • 3. Six Sigma A scientific and practical method to achieve improvements in a company Scientific: • Structured approach. “Show me • Assuming quantitative data. the data” ”Show me the money” Practical: • Emphasis on financial result. • Start with the voice of the customer.
  • 4. Where can Six Sigma be applied? Service Design Management Purchase Administration Six Sigma Methods Production IT Quality Depart. HRM M&S
  • 5. The Six Sigma Initiative integrates these efforts Knowledge Management
  • 6. ‘Six Sigma’ companies  Companies who have successfully adopted ‘Six Sigma’ strategies include:
  • 7. GE “Service company” - examples  Approving a credit card application  Installing a turbine  Lending money  Servicing an aircraft engine  Answering a service call for an appliance  Underwriting an insurance policy  Developing software for a new CAT product  Overhauling a locomotive
  • 8. General Electric • In 1995 GE mandated each employee to work towards achieving 6 sigma • The average process at GE was 3 sigma in 1995 • In 1997 the average reached 3.5 sigma • GE’s goal was to reach 6 sigma by 2001 • Investments in 6 sigma training and projects reached 45MUS$ in 1998, profits increased by 1.2BUS$ “the most important initiative GE has ever undertaken”. Jack Welch Chief Executive Officer General Electric
  • 9. MOTOROLA “At Motorola we use statistical methods daily throughout all of our disciplines to synthesize an abundance of data to derive concrete actions…. How has the use of statistical methods within Motorola Six Sigma initiative, across disciplines, contributed to our growth? Over the past decade we have reduced in-process defects by over 300 fold, which has resulted in cumulative manufacturing cost savings of over 11 billion dollars”*. Robert W. Galvin Chairman of the Executive Committee Motorola, Inc. *From the forward to MODERN INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS by Kenett and Zacks, Duxbury, 1998
  • 10. Positive quotations  “If you’re an average Black Belt, proponents say you’ll find ways to save $1 million each year”  “Raytheon figures it spends 25% of each sales dollar fixing problems when it operates at four sigma, a lower level of efficiency. But if it raises its quality and efficiency to Six Sigma, it would reduce spending on fixes to 1%”  “The plastics business, through rigorous Six Sigma process work , added 300 million pounds of new capacity (equivalent to a ‘free plant’), saved $400 million in investment and will save another $400 million by 2000”
  • 11. Negative quotations  “Because managers’ bonuses are tied to Six Sigma savings, it causes them to fabricate results and savings turn out to be phantom”  “Marketing will always use the number that makes the company look best …Promises are made to potential customers around capability statistics that are not anchored in reality”  “ Six Sigma will eventually go the way of the other fads”
  • 12. Barriers to implementation Barrier #1: Engineers and managers are not interested in mathematical statistics Barrier #2: Statisticians have problems communicating with managers and engineers Barrier #3: Non-statisticians experience “statistical anxiety” which has to be minimized before learning can take place Barrier # 4: Statistical methods need to be matched to management style and organizational culture
  • 13. MB B BB Master Statisticians Black Belts Black Belts Technical Skills Quality Improvement Facilitators Soft Skills
  • 14. Reality  Six Sigma through the correct application of statistical tools can reap a company enormous rewards that will have a positive effect for years or  Six Sigma can be a dismal failure if not used correctly  ISRU, CAMT and Sauer Danfoss will ensure the former occurs
  • 15. Six Sigma  The precise definition of Six Sigma is not important; the content of the program is  A disciplined quantitative approach for improvement of defined metrics  Can be applied to all business processes, manufacturing, finance and services
  • 16. Focus of Six Sigma*  Accelerating fast breakthrough performance  Significant financial results in 4-8 months  Ensuring Six Sigma is an extension of the Corporate culture, not the program of the month  Results first, then culture change! *Adapted from Zinkgraf (1999), Sigma Breakthrough Technologies Inc., Austin, TX.
  • 17. Six Sigma: Reasons for Success  The Success at Motorola, GE and AlliedSignal has been attributed to:  Strong leadership (Jack Welch, Larry Bossidy and Bob Galvin personally involved)  Initial focus on operations  Aggressive project selection (potential savings in cost of poor quality > $50,000/year)  Training the right people
  • 18. The right way!  Plan for “quick wins”  Find good initial projects - fast wins  Establish resource structure  Make sure you know where it is  Publicise success  Often and continually - blow that trumpet  Embed the skills  Everyone owns successes
  • 19. The Six Sigma metric
  • 20. Consider a 99% quality level  5000 incorrect surgical operations per week!  200,000 wrong drug prescriptions per year!  2 crash landings at most major airports each day!  20,000 lost articles of mail per hour!
  • 21. Not very satisfactory!  Companies should strive for ‘Six Sigma’ quality levels  A successful Six Sigma programme can measure and improve quality levels across all areas within a company to achieve ‘world class’ status  Six Sigma is a continuous improvement cycle
  • 22. Scientific method (after Box) Data Facts INDUCTION INDUCTION Theory Hypothesis DEDUCTION DEDUCTION Conjecture Idea Model Plan Act Do Check
  • 23. Improvement cycle  PDCA cycle Plan Act Do Check 23
  • 24. Alternative interpretation Prioritise (D) Hold Measure (M) gains (C) Improve (I) Interpret (D/M/A) Problem (D/M/A) solve
  • 25. Statistical background Some Key measure Target = µ
  • 26. Statistical background ‘Control’ limits +/ − 3σ Target = µ
  • 27. Statistical background Required Tolerance LSL USL +/ − 3σ Target = µ
  • 28. Statistical background Tolerance LSL USL +/ − 3σ Target = µ +/ − 6σ Six-Sigma
  • 29. Statistical background Tolerance LSL USL +/ − 3σ 1350 1350 ppm ppm Target = µ +/ − 6σ
  • 30. Statistical background Tolerance LSL USL +/ − 3σ 1350 1350 ppm ppm 0.001 0.001 ppm ppm Target = µ +/ − 6σ
  • 31. Statistical background  Six-Sigma allows for un-foreseen ‘problems’ and longer term issues when calculating failure error or re-work rates  Allows for a process ‘shift’
  • 32. Statistical background Tolerance LSL USL 1. 5σ 3.4 66803 0 ppm ppm ppm 3.4 ppm µ +/ − 6σ
  • 33. Performance Standards σ PPM Yield 2 308537 69.1% 3 66807 93.3% Current standard 4 6210 99.38% 5 233 99.977% World Class 6 3.4 99.9997% Process Defects per Long term performance million yield
  • 34. Performance standards First Time Yield in multiple stage process Number of processes 3σ 4σ 5σ 6σ 1 93.32 99.379 99.9767 99.99966 10 50.09 93.96 99.77 99.9966 100 0.1 53.64 97.70 99.966 500 0 4.44 89.02 99.83 1000 0 0.2 79.24 99.66 2000 0 0 62.75 99.32 2955 0 0 50.27 99.0
  • 35. Financial Aspects Benefits of 6σ approach w.r.t. financials σ-level Defect rate Costs of poor quality Status of the (ppm) company 6 3.4 < 10% of turnover World class 5 233 10-15% of turnover 4 6210 15-20% of turnover Current standard 3 66807 20-30% of turnover 2 308537 30-40% of turnover Bankruptcy
  • 36. Six Sigma and other Quality programmes
  • 37. Comparing three recent developments in “Quality Management”  ISO 9000 (-2000)  EFQM Model  Quality Improvement and Six Sigma Programs
  • 38. ISO 9000  Proponents claim that ISO 9000 is a general system for Quality Management  In fact the application seems to involve  an excessive emphasis on Quality Assurance, and  standardization of already existing systems with little attention to Quality Improvement  It would have been better if improvement efforts had preceded standardization
  • 39. Critique of ISO 9000  Bureaucratic, large scale  Focus on satisfying auditors, not customers  Certification is the goal; the job is done when certified  Little emphasis on improvement  The return on investment is not transparent  Main driver is:  We need ISO 9000 to become a certified supplier,  Not “we need to be the best and most cost effective supplier to win our customer’s business”  Corrupting influence on the quality profession
  • 40. EFQM Model  A tool for assessment: Can measure where we are and how well we are doing  Assessment is a small piece of the bigger scheme of Quality Management:  Planning  Control  Improvement  EFQM provides a tool for assessment, but no tools, training, concepts and managerial approaches for improvement and planning
  • 41. The “Success” of Change Programs? “Performance improvement efforts … have as much impact on operational and financial results as a ceremonial rain dance has on the weather” Schaffer and Thomson, Harvard Business Review (1992)
  • 42. Change Management: Two Alternative Approaches Activity Centered Programs Change Management Result Oriented Programs Reference: Schaffer and Thomson, HBR, Jan-Feb. 1992
  • 43. Activity Centered Programs  Activity Centered Programs: The pursuit of activities that sound good, but contribute little to the bottom line  Assumption: If we carry out enough of the “right” activities, performance improvements will follow  This many people have been trained  This many companies have been certified  Bias Towards Orthodoxy: Weak or no empirical evidence to assess the relationship between efforts and results
  • 44. ISO 9000 Data Deduction Induction Hypothesis No Checking with Empirical Evidence, No Learning Process
  • 45. An Alternative: Result-Driven Improvement Programs  Result-Driven Programs: Focus on achieving specific, measurable, operational improvements within a few months  Examples of specific measurable goals:  Increase yield  Reduce delivery time  Increase inventory turns  Improved customer satisfaction  Reduce product development time
  • 46. Result Oriented Programs  Project based  Experimental  Guided by empirical evidence  Measurable results  Easier to assess cause and effect  Cascading strategy
  • 47. Why Transformation Efforts Fail!  John Kotter, Professor, Harvard Business School  Leading scholar on Change Management  Lists 8 common errors in managing change, two of which are: • Not establishing a sense of urgency • Not systematically planning for and creating short term wins
  • 48. Six Sigma Demystified* Six Sigma is TQM in disguise, but this time the focus is:  Alignment of customers, strategy, process and people  Significant measurable business results  Large scale deployment of advanced quality and statistical tools  Data based, quantitative *Adapted from Zinkgraf (1999), Sigma Breakthrough Technologies Inc., Austin, TX.
  • 49. Keys to Success*  Set clear expectations for results  Measure the progress (metrics)  Manage for results *Adapted from Zinkgraf (1999), Sigma Breakthrough Technologies Inc., Austin, TX.
  • 50. Key personnel in successful Six Sigma programmes
  • 51. Black Belts  Six Sigma practitioners who are employed by the company using the Six Sigma methodology  work full time on the implementation of problem solving & statistical techniques through projects selected on business needs  become recognised ‘Black Belts’ after embarking on Six Sigma training programme and completion of at least two projects which have a significant impact on the ‘bottom-line’
  • 52. Black Belt requirements Black Belt required resources -Training in statistical methods. -Time to conduct the project! -Software to facilitate data analysis. -Permissions to make required changes!! -Coaching by a champion – or external support.
  • 53. Black Belt role! In other words the Black Belt is -Empowered. -In the sense that it was always meant! -As the theroists have been saying for years!
  • 54. Champions or ‘enablers’  High-level managers who champion Six Sigma projects  they have direct support from an executive management committee  orchestrate the work of Six Sigma Black Belts  provide Black Belts with the necessary backing at the executive level
  • 55. Further down the line - after initial Six Sigma implementation package  Master Black Belts  Black Belts who have reached an acquired level of statistical and technical competence  Provide expert advice to Black Belts  Green Belts  Provide assistance to Black Belts in Six Sigma projects  Undergo only two weeks of statistical and problem solving training
  • 56. Six Sigma instructors (ISRU)  Aim: Successfully integrate the Six Sigma methodology into a company’s existing culture and working practices  Key traits  Knowledge of statistical techniques  Ability to manage projects and reach closure  High level of analytical skills  Ability to train, facilitate and lead teams to success, ‘soft skills’
  • 58. Aim of training package To successfully integrate Six Sigma methodology into Sauer Danfoss’ culture and attain significant improvements in quality, service and operational performance
  • 59. Six-Sigma - A “Roadmap” for improvement Define Select a project Measure Prepare for assimilating information Analyze Characterise the current situation Improve Optimize the process Control Assure the improvements DMAIC
  • 60. Example of a Classic Training strategy Define Throughput time project Measure 4 months (full time) Analyze Training (1 week) Improve Work on project (3 weeks) Control Review
  • 61. ISRU program content  Week 1 - Six Sigma introductory week (Deployment phase)  Weeks 2-5 - Main Black Belt training programme  Week 2 - Measurement phase  Week 3 - Analysis phase  Week 4 - Improve phase  Week 5 - Control phase  Project support for Six Sigma Black Belt candidates  Access to ISRU’s distance learning facility
  • 62. Draft training schedule Jan 2003 Feb 2003 Mar 2003 Apr 2003 May 2003 Jun 2003 Jul 2003 No. Black Belt work package tasks Start End Duration 1/5 1/12 1/19 1/26 2/2 2/9 2/16 2/23 3/2 3/9 3/16 3/23 3/30 4/6 4/13 4/20 4/27 5/4 5/11 5/18 5/25 6/1 6/8 6/15 6/22 6/29 7/6 7/13 7/20 7/27 1 Champions Day 03/02/03 03/02/03 1d 2 Intial 3-day Black belt sessions 04/02/03 06/02/03 3d 3 Administration Day 07/02/03 07/02/03 1d 4 Project support (W orkshop 1) 11/02/03 11/02/03 1d Black Belt training (Measurement 5 17/02/03 21/02/03 1w phase) 6 Project support (W orkshop2) 25/03/03 25/03/03 1d 7 Black Belt training (Analysis phase) 14/04/03 18/04/03 1w 8 Project support (W orkshop 3) 06/05/03 06/05/03 1d 9 Black Belt training (Improvement phase) 26/05/03 30/05/03 1w 10 Project support (W orkshop 4) 17/06/03 17/06/03 1d 11 Black Belt training (Control phase) 07/07/03 11/07/03 1w 12 Project support (Follow up) 29/07/03 30/07/03 2d
  • 63. Training programme delivery  Lectures supported by appropriate technology  Video case studies  Games and simulations  Experiments and workshops  Exercises  Defined projects  Delegate presentations  Homework!
  • 64. 5 weeks of training Define Measure Analyze Improve Control
  • 65. Deployment (Define) phase  Topics covered include  Team Roles  Presentation skills  Project management skills  Group techniques  Quality  Pitfalls to Quality Improvement projects  Project strategies  Minitab introduction
  • 66. Measurement phase  Topics covered include:  Quality Tools  Risk Assessment  Measurements  Capability & Performance  Measurement Systems Analysis  Quality Function Deployment  FMEA
  • 67. Example - QFD  A method for meeting customer requirements  Uses tools and techniques to set product strategies  Displays requirements in matrix diagrams, including ‘House of Quality’  Produces design initiatives to satisfy customer and beat competitors
  • 68. House Of Quality 5. Tradeoff matrix Importance 3. Product characteristics 1. Customer 4. Relationship 2. Competitive requirements matrix assessment 6. Technical assessment and target values
  • 69. QFD can reduce  Lead-times - the time to market and time to stable production  Start-up costs  Engineering changes
  • 70. Analysis phase  Topics include:  Hypothesis testing  Comparing samples  Confidence Intervals  Multi-Vari analysis  ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)  Regression
  • 71. Improvement phase  Topics include:  History of Design of Experiments (DoE)  DoE Pre-planning and Factors  DoE Practical workshop  DoE Analysis  Response Surface Methodology (Optimisation)  Lean Manufacturing
  • 72. Example - Design of Experiments What can it do for you? Minimum cost Maximum output
  • 73. What does it involve?  Brainstorming sessions to identify important factors  Conducting a few experimental trials  Recognising significant factors which influence a process  Setting these factors to get maximum output
  • 74. Control phase  Topics include:  Control charts  SPC case studies  EWMA  Poka-Yoke  5S  Reliability testing  Business impact assessment
  • 75. Example - SPC (Statistical Process Control) - reduces variability and keeps the process stable Disturbed process Temporary Natural process upsets Natural boundary Natural boundary
  • 76. Results of SPC  An improvement in the process  Reduction in variation  Better control over process  Provides practical experience of collecting useful information for analysis  Hopefully some enthusiasm for measurement!
  • 77. Project support  Initial ‘Black Belt’ projects will be considered in Week 1 by Executive management committee, ‘Champions’ and ‘Black Belt’ candidates  Projects will be advanced significantly during the training programme via:  continuous application of newly acquired statistical techniques  workshops and on-going support from ISRU and CAMT  delivery of regular project updates by ‘Black Belt’ candidates
  • 78. Project execution Black Belt Review Training ISRU, ISRU Champion Application ISRU, Champion
  • 79. Conducting projects Traditional Six Sigma -Project leader is obliged to -Black Belt is obliged to make an effort. achieve financial results. -Set of tools . -Well-structured method. -Focus on technical knowledge. -Focus on experimentation. -Project leader is left to his own -Black Belt is coached by devices. champion. -Results are fuzzy. -Results are quantified. -Safe targets. -Stretched targets. -Projects conducted “on the -Projects are top priority. side”.
  • 80. The right support + The right projects + The right people + The right tools + The right plan = The right results
  • 81. Champions Role • Communicate vision and progress • Facilitate selecting projects and people • Track the progress of Black Belts • Breakdown barriers for Black Belts • Create supporting systems
  • 82. Champions Role • Measure and report Business Impact • Lead projects overall • Overcome resistance to Change • Encourage others to Follow
  • 83. Project selection Define Select: - the project - the process - the Black Belt - the potential savings - time schedule - team
  • 84. Project selection Projects may be selected according to: 3. A complete list of requirements of customers. 5. A complete list of costs of poor quality. 7. A complete list of existing problems or targets. 9. Any sensible meaningful criteria 11. Usually improves bottom line - but exceptions
  • 85. Key Quality Characteristics “CTQs” How will you measure them? How often? Who will measure? Is the outcome critical or important to results?
  • 86. Outcome Examples Reduce defective parts per million Increased capacity or yield Improved quality Reduced re-work or scrap Faster throughput
  • 87. Key Questions Is this a new product - process? Yes - then potential six-sigma Do you know how best to run a process? No - then potential six-sigma
  • 88. Key Criteria Is the potential gain enough - e.g. - saving > $50,000 per annum? Can you do this within 3-4 months? Will results be usable? Is this the most important issue at the moment?
  • 89. Why is ISRU an effective Six Sigma practitioner?
  • 90. Reasons  Because we are experts in the application of industrial statistics and managing the accompanying change  We want to assist companies in improving performance thus helping companies to greater success  We will act as mentors to staff embarking on Six Sigma programmes
  • 91. INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS RESEARCH UNIT We are based in the School of Mechanical and Systems Engineering, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, England
  • 92. Mission statement "To promote the effective and widespread use of statistical methods throughout European industry."
  • 93. The work we do can be broken down into 3 main categories:  Consultancy  Training  Major Research Projects All with the common goal of promoting quality improvement by implementing statistical techniques
  • 94. Consultancy We have long term one to one consultancies with large and small companies, e.g.  Transco  Prescription Pricing Agency  Silverlink To name but a few
  • 95. Training In-House courses  SPC  QFD  Design of Experiments  Measurement Systems Analysis On-Site courses  As above, tailored courses to suit the company  Six Sigma programmes
  • 96. European projects  The Unit has provided the statistical input into many major European projects Examples include -  Use of sensory panels to assess butter quality  Using water pressures to detect leaks  Assessing steel rail reliability  Testing fire-fighter’s boots for safety
  • 97. European projects  Eurostat - investigating the multi-dimensional aspects of innovation using the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) II - 17 major European countries involved -determining the factors that influence innovation  Certified Reference materials for assessing water quality - validating EC Laboratories  New project - ‘Effect on food of the taints and odours in packaging materials’
  • 98. Typical local projects  Assessment of environmental risks in chemical and process industries  Introduction of statistical process control (SPC) into a micro-electronics company  Helping to develop a new catheter for open-heart surgery via designed experiments (DoE)  ‘Restaurant of the Year’ & ‘Pub of the Year’ competitions!
  • 99. Benefits Better monitoring of processes Better involvement of people Staff morale is raised Throughput is increased Profits go up
  • 100. Examples of past successes  Down time cut by 40% - Villa soft drinks  Waste reduced by 50% - Many projects  Stock holding levels halved - Many projects  Material use optimised saving £150k pa - Boots  Expensive equipment shown to be unnecessary - Wavin
  • 101. Examples of past successes  Faster Payment of Bills (cut by 30 days)  Scrap rates cut by 80%  New orders won (e.g £100,000 for an SME)  Cutting stages from a process  Reduction in materials use (Paper - Ink)
  • 102. Distance Learning Facility
  • 103. Distance Learning  or Flexible training  or Open Learning  your time  your place  your study pattern  your pace
  • 104. Distance Learning  http://www.ncl.ac.uk/blackboard  Clear descriptions  Step by step guidelines  Case studies  Web links, references  Self assessment exercises in ‘Microsoft Excel’ and ‘Minitab’  Help line and discussion forum  Essentially a further learning resource for Six Sigma tools and methodology
  • 106. Case study: project selection Savings: Coffee -Savings on rework and scrap beans -Water costs less than coffee Roast Potential savings: 500 000 Euros Cool Grind Moisture Pack content Sealed coffee
  • 107. Case study: Measure 1. Select the Critical to Quality (CTQ) characteristic 2. Define performance standards 3. Validate measurement system
  • 108. Case study: Measure 1. CTQ Moisture contents of roasted coffee 2. Standards - Unit: one batch - Defect: Moisture% > 12.6%
  • 109. Case study: Measure 3. Measurement reliability Gauge R&R study Measurement system too unreliable! So fix it!!
  • 110. Case study: Analyse Analyse 4. Establish product capability 5. Define performance objectives 6. Identify influence factors
  • 112. Diagnosis of problem CTQ CTQ CTQ CTQ
  • 113. Discovery of causes 6. Identify factors Man Machine Material -Brainstorming -Exploratory data analysis Roasting machines Batch size Moisture% Amount of Reliability Weather added water of Quadra Beam conditions Method Measure- Mother ment Nature
  • 114. Discovery of causes Control chart for moisture%
  • 115. A case study Potential influence factors - Roasting machines (Nuisance variable) - Weather conditions (Nuisance variable) - Stagnations in the transport system (Disturbance) - Batch size (Nuisance variable) - Amount of added water (Control variable)
  • 116. Case study: Improve Improve 7. Screen potential causes 8. Discover variable relationships 9. Establish operating tolerances
  • 117. Case study: Improve 7. Screen potential causes - Relation between humidity and moisture % not established - Effect of stagnations confirmed - Machine differences confirmed 8. Discover variable relationships Design of Experiments (DoE)
  • 118. Experimentation How do we often conduct experiments? Experiments are run based on: Intuition Knowledge Experience Power Emotions Possible settings for X2 X X X: Settings with which X an experiment is run. X X X Actually: X • we’re just trying • unsystematical • no design/plan Possible settings for X1
  • 119. Experimentation A systematical experiment: Organized / discipline One factor at a time Other factors kept constant X Procedure: Possible settings for X2 X: First vary X1; X2 is kept constant X X O: Optimal value for X1. X X X X X X XO X X X X X: Vary X2; X1 is kept constant. X X : Optimal value (???) Possible settings for X1
  • 120. Design of Experiments (DoE) One factor (X) X1 1 2 low high Two factors (X’s) Three factors (X’s) high high X2 2 2 3 2 X2 low X1 high X3 low X1 high
  • 121. Advantages of multi-factor over one-factor
  • 122. A case study: Experiment Experiment: Y: moisture% X1: Water (liters) X2: Batch size (kg)
  • 123. A case study 9. Establish operating tolerances Feedback adjustments for influence of weather conditions
  • 124. A case study: feedback adjustments Moisture% without adjustments
  • 125. A case study: feedback adjustments Moisture% with adjustments
  • 126. Case study: Control Control 10. Validate measurement system (X’s) 11. Determine process capability 12. Implement process controls
  • 127. Results Before σlong-term = 0.532 Objective σlong-term < 0.280 Result σlong-term < 0.100
  • 128. Benefits Benefits of this project σlong-term < 0.100 Ppk = 1.5 This enables us to increase the mean to 12.1% Per 0.1% coffee: 100 000 Euros saving Benefits of this project: 1 100 000 Euros per year Approved by controller
  • 129. Case study: control 12. Implement process controls - SPC control loop - Mistake proofing - Control plan - Audit schedule Project closure - Documentation of the results and data. - Results are reported to involved persons. - The follow-up is determined
  • 130. Six Sigma approach to this project - Step-by-step approach. - Constant testing and double checking. - No problem fixing, but: explanation → control. - Interaction of technical knowledge and experimentation methodology. - Good research enables intelligent decision making. - Knowing the financial impact made it easy to find priority for this project.
  • 131. Re-cap I!  Structured approach – roadmap  Systematic project-based improvement  Plan for “quick wins”  Find good initial projects - fast wins  Publicise success  Often and continually - blow that trumpet  Use modern tools and methods  Empirical evidence based improvement
  • 132. Re-cap II!  DMAIC is a basic ‘training’ structure  Establish your resource structure - Make sure you know where external help is  Key ingredient is the support for projects - It’s the project that ‘wins’ not the training itself  Fit the training programme around the company needs - not the company around the training  Embed the skills - Everyone owns the successes
  • 133. ENBIS All joint authors - presenters - are members of: Pro-Enbis or ENBIS. This presentation is supported by Pro-Enbis a Thematic Network funded under the ‘Growth’ programme of the European Commission’s 5th Framework research programme - contract number G6RT-CT-2001-05059

Hinweis der Redaktion

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  2. Operational definition of CTQ: measurement procedure + reliability/validity -&gt; better measurement system! Operational definition of requirements Current performance Objective