Update : Crude 94$ Target Achieved....as per view given in Commodity Insight on 03.05.12...

1. Commodity Insight
3rd May, 2012
Turnover of 02.05.12 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
03.05.12 02.05.12
Exchange Turnover (Cr.)
Gold 1645.00 $ 1653.60 $ - 8.60 $
MCX 44727 Silver 30.37 $ 30.56 $ - 0.19 $
NCDEX 24959 Crude 104.85 $ 104.78 $ 0.07 $
USDINR 53.69 53.25 0.44
Crude Oil
Fundamentally, OPEC output in April has hit its
highest since 2008 as extra crude from Iraq, Saudi
Arabia and Libya more than compensates for the
lowest Iranian supply in two decades ahead of a
European Union (EU) embargo. Supply from the 12-
member OPEC averaged 31.75 million barrels per
day (bpd), up from a revised 31.32 million bpd in
March, the survey of sources at oil companies,
OPEC officials and analysts found. The International
Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast global oil demand
at 89.9 million barrels a day for 2012, a rise of 0.9
per cent over 2011.
Technically, Crude is moving up from past few days,
we have seen that prices have moved up from 5400
levels to 5625 levels that means a return of approx
5% in just one week. Crude is having major
resistance at 108$, a breakout and consistent close
above same will take prices till 114$ i.e. in MCX a
breakout above 5640 will take prices till 5800 and
6000 levels. On downside crude has major support
at 5380 Rs, if prices are able to break these levels
then further correction in the commodity can be
seen till 5050 levels.
In long term, Crude is expected to touch levels of
94$ i.e. in MCX levels of 5000 Rs and below that
4800 can be seen in next one month. Crude Oil is
good to sell at around 108$ in NYMEX and 5600 Rs
in MCX. In long term i.e. for next one to two months,
we maintain our bearish view on Crude Oil.
Potato
Fundamentally, According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), Potato
output in the season 2011-12, is estimated higher at 43.6 mn tn compared to 40 mn tn last year. There are also
reports of late blight disease which may hamper output to the extent of 10-15% and thus revised output may be
around 36 mn tn. However, even if output is lower by 10-15% it is compare to last year’s bumper output of 40
mn tn. Thus revised 36 mn tn output is sufficient to cater the domestic consumption demand.
Even though India witnessed bumper potato output in 2010-11 season at 40 mn tn more than 20% was just
thrown away. Potato prices have already factored in the impact of 10-15% drop in output and thus we expect
prices to consolidate or may even start declining sooner or later. This is because, output is revised lower it is
much higher compared to the consumption demand of around 28-30 mn tn.
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2. Commodity Insight
3rd May, 2012
Technically, Potato prices are moving in upward
direction, we have seen prices moving up from the
levels of 900 to a recent high of 1132 levels i.e. a
return of approx 25% in last one month. After a sharp
upside rally now it’s time where prices need to
consolidate and give some correction from present
levels. Also on charts it seems that prices are highly
overbought and there should be some correction in
short term. RSI is also trading at 70 levels, which
shows that Potato is overbought.
So for Short term rise in prices till 1120 or 1130 levels
should be used as selling opportunity for the target of
1070 and 1020 levels. If prices are able to break and
give close below 1020 then an extended rally can be
seen till 950 levels. We maintain our bearish view in
Potato for next one to two months.
Crude Chart
CRUDE OIL - 1 BBL - 1 MONTH (5,598.00, 5,623.00, 5,575.00, 5,596.00, -4.00000) 5800
5700
5600
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
Relative Strength Index (72.7685) 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Volume (11,185,500)
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x1000
11 18 25 1 8 16 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14
August September October November December 2012 February March April May
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3. Commodity Insight
3rd May, 2012
Daily Trading Range
Crude Oil today’s trading levels are 5545 - 5640….
Intraday Support @ 5545 - 5580 and Resistance @ 5640 - 5680
Intraday Trend Sideways, Buy on dips & Sell on rise….
Crude Oil Sell @ 5610 SL 5640 TGT 5580….
Open Calls
Type
Stop Closing
Date of Commodity Initiated Price Target Comments
Loss Price
Call
1st TGT Achieved,
02.05.12 Sell Lead Mini 114.4 115.1 113.50-111 113.15 Hold with SL @
Cost.
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Comments
of Call Price Loss Spread
Spread
Report by: -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodities & Currencies Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Kunal Kame (Research Associate) kunal.kame@destimoney.com
Siddhesh Ghare (Research Associate) siddhesh.ghare@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
3rd May, 2012
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