This document summarizes a visioning workshop on the future of the geospatial industry in 2015 held by the AGI (Association for Geographic Information). The workshop included presentations on data and technology trends, market directions, and public policy and business models. Data sharing and cloud computing were seen becoming more ubiquitous. Crowdsourcing of geospatial data through tools like OpenStreetMap was predicted to grow substantially. Challenges included adapting to new players like Google and changes in public sector funding and policies around open data. In the discussion of markets, location-based services and mobile navigation were seen growing significantly. New entrants and business models may disrupt existing players. Public policy issues included implementing open data and geospatial strategies

1. AGI Foresight Study A Vision of the Geospatial industry in 2015 John Pepper AGI Chairman

2. Agenda Setting the Scene John Pepper Data and Technology Andrew Coote Market Directions Steven Feldman Public Policy and Business Models Robin McLaren Open Debate

3. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Neils Bohr (1885-1962)

4. Defining the Geospatial Market Information, processes, products and services where location is a significant component. or Any endeavour where our expertise can be used to the benefit of citizens, business and good governance

5. Expert Contributors Alan Belward Alan Dodson Andrew Hudson-Smith Andrew Woolf Berik Davies Bill Oates Charles Arthur Stephen Booth Chris Osborne Gary Gale Gesche Schmid Graham Wallace Iain Greenway Jo Cook John Pepper Jamie Justham Mary Short Michael Nicholson Mick Cory Mike Osborne Muki Haklay Nick Rigby Peter Batty Peter ter Haar Richard Groom Rob Walker Spencer Chainey Stewart Fotheringham Jon Raper Steven Feldman William Mackaness Andy Wells Robin McLaren Chris Holcroft Hugh Neffendorf Tony Black Graham Vowles Brian Higgs Alun Jones Sung Hyun Jong Audun Clark Marek Ziebart Thierry Gregorius Tim Duffy Claire Huppertz

6. Next Steps Highlights presentations (today) Open survey on key Questions (now – Christmas) Summary Report (in preparation) Final results will be published in January AGI consider implications for the organisation

7. Complementary Perspectives Data and Technology Markets Policy

8. Data and Technology

9. Geospatial Information is Pervasive Position will be “always available” through Smartphones, RFID tags and other sensors. The value to each application will be variable, but it will always be there.

10. Sub-metre accuracy 3D data is available for all urban areas “Imagery becomes a commodity, viewed and distributed on the web almost for free. Mass market removed and specialist capture returns”. Andy Wells

11. Augmented Reality http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b64_16K2e08

12. Global Navigation Satellite System “Multi-constellation GNSS providing 100 satellites Centimetre positioning commonly achievable in a mobile environment.” Alan Dodson Source: klipsi.ch

13. Cloud Computing:the dominant delivery mechanism “Essentially it will mean that users of IT-related services will be able to focus on what the service provides them rather than how the services are implemented or hosted.” Gartner (2009)

14. Location based Services “Mainstream consumer-focused location aware smartphones and related location based services will make significant inroads into the enterprise, significantly reducing the cost and effort required for many mobile applications.” Peter Batty

15. Earth Observation Satellites “By 2015 governmental organisations will operate over 200 EO satellites carrying 385 different instruments. Turning data from such a range of systems into information calls for a corresponding range of scientific and technical competencies.” Alan Belward

16. Open Source Geospatial Software GRASS OpenLayers “In 5 years time, Open Source Geospatial won't be a niche or a specialism, it will be the standard way that things are done.” Jo Cook

17. Crowd sourcing “Five years ago OpenStreetMap didnʼt exist, so forecasting the future of crowdsourced data feels particularly futile.” “However, the UK is predicted to be complete, at the street level, in 14 months time.” “There will be more than 1,000,000 users in much less than five years time.” Chris Osborne

18. Geomatics “I can envisage a market for 3D point cloud data from lidar combined with mobile scanning by ground vehicles.” Richard Groom

19. Semantic Web Google will parse complete natural language sentences in a single query – Gary Gale

20. Some Resulting Challenges Discard the location-specific baggage and enter the mainstream. Survive and prosper alongside Google and other emerging global players. Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take advantage. Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm shifts. Take location information into socially significant applications, e.g. climate change, participatory democracy, mega city planning Communicating with end users who don’t understand maps.

21. Looking at Markets in 2015 Steven Feldman

22. Future gazing can be a risky business

23. It’s not easy to predict the future …

24. It’s easier to predict technology than the way it may be used

25. An early mobile phone http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVtDWXohLXY

26. Technology drives the Market

27. 1cm accurate always available GPS

28. Or even indoors

29. Real time data feeds http://is.gd/lCrI

30. Vehicle Telematics

31. Passive Crowd Sourcing

32. Cloud, Cloud, Cloud

33. Commercial themes

34. Falling Prices

38. Resistance to change

39. First mover advantage

40. Crime and Public Safety Market “information sharing may result in creating an information explosion that results in those at the receiving end of information having too much information”

41. Energy Market “Decisions will be based on data that will cost millions of dollars; a well that misses its target by 20m due to an incorrect or missing datum or CRS could mean the difference between exploration success or failure”

42. Environmental Management 1 “In many cases, more information equals greater confusion – another dataset will be around the corner to refute any …“

43. Financial Services “A new breed of market entrants will emerge to exploit structural weaknesses of the legacy IT infrastructure of existing players in the financial services sector”

44. Local Government “public sector sourced and derived data will have to be more freely and openly available to manage this shift from centrally provided services to a more enabled and self service society”

45. Marine and Coastal Markets “the greatest challenge to SDI creation is the existing culture and work practices that support a myriad of individual projects and legacy applications”

46. Retail “Greater granularity in customer information and segmentation, enabled by embedded geodata elements, will allow for wild and exciting interpretations and analyses of the customer profiles, matching movement to will, location to desire and helping to model every expectation of every customer in a dynamically, visually representable way”

47. Transport “The green agenda will continue to have an influence on the transport industry. Businesses will want to parade their credentials as part of their marketing message, and geospatial data will be a key element for them. However, cost saving will remain the biggest incentive to purchasing of technology”

48. Health “Too often in the healthcare market it seems that spatial analysis is currently used to defend decisions which have already been made, rather than being relied upon to optimise the decision-making process itself. This contrasts with the best practice elsewhere in the public sector”

49. More of the same?

50. No Breakthroughs health government bi local government environment insurance defense transport resources

52. Consumer

53. Something Else or Somewhere Else? Location targeted advertising Mobile Navigation Hyperlocal News Location Based Social Networks Ubiquitous Location Location aware price comparison

54. Where will the money be?

55. How good is our foresight?

56. Foreseeing the internet in the 60’s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC5sbdvnvQM

57. Know Edge Ltd 57 Looking at Policy in 2015 Robin McLaren

58. Did you know? 58 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY

59. Know Edge Ltd 59 Predicting the Future “While I can’t predict the future, after listening to 50 companies working on the same problem I have a view of what’s likely to happen” Nancy Peretsman, Managing Director, Allen & Co. [Supported Google to go public]

60. Know Edge Ltd 60 Global Forces

61. Know Edge Ltd 61 Drivers of Change 2015 We are now in a global market. The shape of the geospatial industry in 2015, will be one influenced significantly by key global trends of a China (and USA) dominated world economy. China has a $3 trillion reserve to invest in assets and development around the world. Challenge To co-exist and take advantage of this level of potentially disruption as the balance of economic power changes.

62. Know Edge Ltd 62 Source: www.biojobblog.com Source: www.smu.edu.sg

63. Know Edge Ltd 63 Drivers of Change 2015 We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t exist, using technologies that haven’t been invented in order to solve problems that we don’t even know are problems yet. Challenge Death of the GIS MSc courses Appropriate GI capacity building in range of professions

64. Know Edge Ltd 64 Public Sector Information Source: www.eom.com.my/terms

65. Know Edge Ltd 65 Drivers of Change 2015 data.gov.uk will soon expose over 1,100 government datasets and the adoption of the ‘linked data’ approach will enable significant innovation in its re-use. Gordon Brown announced that some data from the Ordnance Survey would be made online free of charge (following consultation); OPSI is reviewing and simplifying the government’s approach to PSI licensing. Challenge To create sustainable business models that will maintain data of appropriate quality in Making Public Data Public.

66. Know Edge Ltd 66

67. Know Edge Ltd 67 Drivers of Change 2015 A TechMarketView report said improvements to the teaching of science, technology, engineering and maths need to be made in order to create the next generation of software developers. Furthermore, better tax incentives for investment, corporate venturing, R&D support and so on could all help young software companies to flourish in the UK. Challenge To create a cluster of Location Information SMEs in the UK.

68. Know Edge Ltd 68 Tyndrum, Scotland Giants Causeway, Northern Ireland a unique opportunity Snowdonia, Wales London, England

69. Know Edge Ltd 69 Drivers of Change 2015 UK Location Strategy. EU INSPIRE Directive. Devolved administrations’ GI Strategies. Making Public Data Public The economic situation for the next decade will significantly squeeze public sector budgets. Challenge To successfully implement these strategies with minimal public sector intervention – collaboration is key to success. To engage with the public sector through the efficiency and citizen empowerment agendas. To leverage private sector innovation.

70. Know Edge Ltd 70 Institutional Change

71. Know Edge Ltd 71 Drivers of Change 2015 Independent Scotland! Institutional reform to drive efficiencies similar to Land & Property Services NI. Privatisation of elements of public sector. Empowering citizens and communities. Challenge A new institutional landscape. A new type of public sector – a streamlined central government. Impact on existing business models in private sector.

72. Know Edge Ltd 72 Source: www.bestventureinc.com

73. Know Edge Ltd 73 Reporting a Problem with Google Maps (USA)

74. Know Edge Ltd 74 Drivers of Change 2015 Momentum building in crowdsourcing to generate Open Data (OSM will have 1 millionth contributor). Google has adopted crowdsourcing policy. Challenge Few, if any countries, have generated data management policies that truly integrate and utilise this new, valuable resource of large scale, citizen initiated information. This paradigm shift has yet to be understood and absorbed at a government level.

75. Know Edge Ltd 75

76. Know Edge Ltd 76 Drivers of Change 2015 AGI needs to become a trusted spokesman on key social and technological issues, and to have a strong, high profile. The journey from a representative group to a professional body is a long and arduous one. Is it a journey that AGI wishes to make? Challenge If the journey is to be made, is it as a stand-alone GI profession, or as part of another professional grouping? ‘In this world the games developers will replace professional GIS specialists.’

77. Know Edge Ltd 77 Data Privacy Source: www.easyheath.org.uk

78. Know Edge Ltd 78 Drivers of Change 2015 Sharing information about your self should be a transaction where the default is that you reject, in other words you have to opt-in NOT out In the consumer market data about yourself has become much more important – Facebook! The trend is now not to register Oyster cards as it provides information about where you’ve been. Challenge A large programme of work is required to get balance of privacy corrected. The structures (and software) exist to make this happen – Microsoft’s “passport” is an example.

79. Know Edge Ltd 79 Source: www.abouttheimage.com

80. Know Edge Ltd 80 Drivers of Change 2015 GI is becoming ubiquitous, with “location” becoming part of mainstream information systems. GI standards will follow this move from being specific to GI into extensions of wider standards for general IT and application areas. The emphasis will change from syntax (form) to semantics (meaning). Challenge Accept that location information interoperability standards will migrate to W3C based standards.

81. Know Edge Ltd 81 Value Added Resellers Source: www.thevarguy.com

82. Know Edge Ltd 82 Drivers of Change 2015 Rising user expectations, advances in technology, and new ways of working (based on Web 2.0) offer new opportunities and provide easier market entry to small players. The balance of power is moving from data producers to data users. It’s getting rather crowded up on Gartner’s ‘curve of enlightenment’. The cost of geospatial data and technology is likely to fall – as are the margins, but he market will increase in the consumer space. Challenge Microsoft and Google show no sign currently of moving into high value, but niche markets. If they do then this could be extremely disruptive to current data markets.

83. Challenging times ahead

84. Discard the location-specific baggage and enter the mainstream. Survive and prosper alongside Google and other emerging global players. Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take advantage. Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm shifts. Take location information into socially significant applications, e.g. climate change, participatory democracy, mega city planning Communicating with end users who don’t understand maps. Challenging Technology

85. Challenging Markets Technology drives the market Making money out of free From producer to consumer centric Resistance to change Information overload and lack of trust From consumer to enterprise

86. Challenging Policy Economic power changes Appropriate GI capacity building Sustainable business models in the world of “free” Build a UK based global market leader A new type of public sector Are we a profession? Privacy is a nightmare

87. Know Edge Ltd 87 Your Role A bright future won’t just happen. It is up to you to make it happen and shape the future. Source: www.mindyfuller.com

88. Thank You