Economic Indicators of Wyoming\'s Economic Health: Part I

TRENDS
WYOMING LABOR FORCE November 2009

Vol. 46 No. 11 © Copyright 2009 by the Wyoming Department of Employment Research & Planning

Indicators of Wyoming’s Economic Health: Part I
by: Doug Leonard, Senior Economist

The movement of workers from their homes to their places of employment is an
integral part of Wyoming’s economy. A considerable amount of movement is due to
the state’s low population density and the existence of work locations in remote
areas. The following article examines the relationship of worker commuting to
other economic variables such as initial unemployment insurance claims, jobs
worked, and oil and gas drilling activity. Research indicated that commuting
as a factor in conjunction with other variables can be a leading indicator of
employment changes in the state.

“O
n an over-the-year basis, follows as to whether (and to what extent)
employment fell by 3,059 jobs downturns can be anticipated and what
(-1.1%) and average weekly wage data are available to either predict or
decreased by $1 (-0.1%) from first quarter confirm these events. Wyoming’s rapid
2008 to first quarter 2009. Job losses were growth in recent years also had other
reported in more than half of Wyoming effects on workers in the state. The rural
counties and in 12 industry sectors.” nature and sparsely populated open
(Bullard & Brennan; October 2009) spaces in the state require some type of
work-related travel for many people. This
As the quote indicates, Wyoming’s increases demand for fuels, automotive
economy entered a period of contraction repair, and automotive maintenance. More
during first quarter 2009. This stands demands are placed on the infrastructure
in stark contrast to the rapid growth the as well when people use public roadways
state experienced from 2005 to 2008.
Once a contraction begins, speculation (Text continued on page 3)

HIGHLIGHTS
• The recently completed Rockies Express natural gas pipeline, which runs from western Colorado
to Ohio, opens new markets for Wyoming natural gas. … page 8
• Wyoming’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 6.8% in September, as the state’s
employment decreased by 12,900 jobs from September 2008. … page 20

NEW
The Growing and Declining Industries tables for Second Quarter 2009
are now available on the Internet at http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/G_DInd/G_D_Industries.htm

http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI

Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning

Unemployment Rate by Wyoming County,
September 2009 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Wyoming Labor
Force Trends
Northwest Region Northeast Region A monthly publication of the
Wyoming Department
Big Horn
Sheridan
of Employment,
Sheridan
Sundance Gary W. Child, Director
Cody
Basin
Bu alo
Crook
Park
Gillette
Research & Planning
Teton Worland
Johnson
Campbell Newcastle
P.O. Box 2760
Washakie
Hot
Springs Weston Casper, WY 82602-2760
Jackson
Thermopolis doeerd_r&p_web@state.wy.us
307-473-3807
Sublette Natrona Converse
Niobrara
Pinedale Casper
Douglas Tom Gallagher, Manager
Lander
Tony Glover, Workforce
Lusk

Fremont Information Supervisor
Goshen
Platte
Carola Cowan, Bureau of Labor
Lincoln
Sweetwater Wheatland
Torrington
Statistics Programs Supervisor
Rawlins
Phil Ellsworth, Editor
Kemmerer

Albany
Uinta
Green River Carbon
Laramie
Michael Moore, Associate Editor
Evanston Laramie Cheyenne Editorial Committee: David Bullard,
Valerie A. Davis, Phil Ellsworth,
Southwest Region Central Region Southeast Region and Michael Moore

2.0 to 3.4 3.5 to 4.9 5.0 to 6.4 6.5 to 7.9 Contributors to Wyoming Labor
Unemployment Rate (Percentage)
Force Trends this month: David
Bullard, Carola Cowan, Phil
Ellsworth, Margaret Hiatt, and
Douglas W. Leonard.
IN THIS ISSUE Subscriptions, additional copies, and
Indicators of Wyoming’s Economic Health: Part I . . . . . . . . . . 1 back issues available free of charge.
© Copyright 2009 by the Wyoming
Occupation Spotlight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Department of Employment,
Research & Planning.
Employment Situation in States Along the Rockies
Express Pipeline Route . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Material contained in this publication
is in the public domain and may
Twelve-Month Percentage Point Increase in be reproduced without special
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates by State, permission provided that source
September 2008 to September 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 credit is given to: Wyoming Labor
Force Trends, Wyoming Department
Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses of Employment, Research & Planning.
Data Online . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Department of Employment
Nondiscrimination Statement
Wyoming Job Losses Continue in September . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
The Department of Employment does
State Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) . . . . . . . . 21 not discriminate on the basis
of race, color, religion, national
Wyoming Nonagricultural Wage and Salary origin, sex, age, or disability. It is our
Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 intention that all individuals seeking
services from our agency be given
Economic Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 equal opportunity and that eligibility
Wyoming County Unemployment Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 decisions be based upon applicable
statutes, rules, and regulations.
Wyoming Normalized Unemployment Insurance
Mission statement available at http://
Statistics: Initial Claims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 doe.state.wy.us/LMI/mission.pdf.
Wyoming Normalized Unemployment Insurance ISSN 0512-4409
Statistics: Continued Claims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Page 2 http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI November 2009

Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment

(Text continued from page 1) individuals working. This means that
the analysis of commuting count and
for work. As trip distances and frequencies distance data includes multiple jobholding.
increase, so do the chances traveling The analysis covers the period from first
workers will be involved in automobile quarter 2001 to first quarter 2009.
accidents. Additional time on the road
means less time spent at home, which may
be associated with family life difficulties.
Results
Positive impacts of workers commuting
may include the ability to secure higher Figure 1 (see page 4) shows the
paying and more stable employment while quarterly intracounty (short distance,
remaining at the same residence. within county) commuting flows from first
quarter 2001 to first quarter 2009 along
Prior analyses performed by Research with the percentage change in flow
& Planning focused on the socioeconomic compared with the prior year. The over-
impacts associated with commuting the-year percentage change line provides
during an economic expansion (Leonard, information regarding positive or negative
2008). However, limited research examined growth in Wyoming’s economy. As the
what happens to worker commuting positive portion of the growth line shows,
during an economic contraction or changes were small (3.2% or less) until
recession. In addition to commuting fourth quarter 2003, when intracounty
effects, what other variables could be used commuting surged 6.7% to 208,850 worker
to analyze the severity of, and, if possible transactions (single and multiple jobs)
to predict economic downturns before they from 195,679 in fourth quarter 2002.
occur? From fourth quarter 2003 until second
quarter 2005 (seven quarters) the growth
rate in intracounty commuting was nearly
Methodology equal to or exceeded 4.0%. From third
quarter 2005 to fourth quarter 2007, the
The primary data set and definitions growth rate slowed but remained steady
used in this analysis come from the between 1.8% and 3.1%. However,
commuting pattern data model (Leonard, beginning in first quarter 2008, growth in
2008). This data set contains information intracounty commuting slowed rapidly and
about worker movements, wages, became negative by second quarter 2008.
industries, and demographics. Other The last three quarters in the time series
data sets used include continued and show a rapid decline in intracounty
initial unemployment insurance (UI) commuting through first quarter 2009 as
claims (Wyoming Department of the recession which beset the United
Employment, 2009), rotary drilling rig States appears to begin substantially
counts (Baker Hughes, Inc., 2009) and affecting Wyoming.
employment levels from the Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages Figure 2 (see page 4) illustrates
(QCEW) program (Wyoming Department commuting behavior in a slightly different
of Employment, 2009). manner than Figure 1. First, Figure 2
shows commuting behavior between
The base unit of analysis was jobs counties (intercounty commuting). Second,
worked at any time in the state, not in addition to Wyoming residents, it

November 2009 http://doe.state.wy.us/LMI Page 3


250,000 8.0%
243,000 6.4%

Over-the-Year Percentage Change
236,000 4.8%
229,000 3.2%
Commuting Flowa

222,000 1.6%
215,000 0.0
208,000 -1.6%
201,000 -3.2%
Over-the-Year Change
194,000 Commuting Flow -4.8%
187,000 -6.4%
180,000 -8.0%
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
Year and Quarter
aCounts may include individuals multiple times if they hold more than one job.

Figure 1: Wyoming Within-County Commuting Flows and Over-the-Year Change, First Quarter 2001 (2001Q1) to
First Quarter 2009 (2009Q1)

includes people working
in the state who do not
130,000 Over-the-Year Change 30.0%
have a Wyoming driver’s

Over-the-Year Percentage Change
124,000 Commuting Flow 25.0%
license (nonresidents). In
118,000 20.0%
2002 there was a rapid 112,000
Commuting Flowa

increase in the amount of 15.0%
106,000
intercounty commuting, 100,000
10.0%

followed by several quarters 94,000
5.0%
of contractions occurring in 88,000
0.0%
the period shortly following 82,000 -5.0%
the collapse of Enron. This 76,000 -10.0%
was followed by a period 70,000 -15.0%
2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

of growth in the first half
of 2005 transitioning back
to negative growth from Year and Quarter
third quarter 2005 until aCounts may include individuals multiple times if they hold more than one job.

second quarter 2006.
From second quarter 2006
until second quarter 2008 Figure 2: Wyoming Intercounty Commuting Flows and Over-the-Year
growth rates exceeded Percentage Change, First Quarter 2001 (2001Q1) to First Quarter 2009
12.0% four times. The (2009Q1)



effects of the national recession can larger downward change was observed in
be seen in third quarter 2008 as intercounty commuting. Often during
intercounty commuting contracted at a economic expansions, Wyoming obtains a
pace greater than 12.0%. large amount of labor from other states
(Jones, 2006). When expansions end, these
A comparison of over-the-year changes workers generally return to their locations
in statewide employment (Wyoming of origin (see Figure 4, page 7). Figure 4
Department of Employment, 2009), shows that during the current recession,
intercounty commuting, initial (first-time nearly one-quarter of dislocated workers
filing) unemployment insurance (UI) claims receiving Wyoming unemployment benefits
(Wen & Leonard, 2009), out-of-state UI are now living in another state. Based on
claimants (Leonard, 2009), and rotary the data presented in Figures 1 and 4, the
drilling rig counts (Baker Hughes, 2009) current recession is affecting Wyoming’s
is shown in Figure 3 (see page 6). Changes resident workforce in addition to its
in intercounty commuting, either up or itinerant or transient workforce.
down, do not necessarily precede changes
in the employment level. An example of Although commuting data provide
this occurred in 2007, when intercounty some information regarding economic
commuting increased, yet the employment health, UI claims and rotary drilling
growth levels declined. Over-the-year rig count data are timelier and tend to
percentage changes in initial filings for be more sensitive to economic changes.
unemployment insurance and rotary This is evidenced in Figure 3 when the
drilling rig counts do appear to precede rig counts and UI claims began moving
changes in employment. When initial UI in opposite directions beginning in 2007,
claims and rig counts changed markedly well before the decline in employment was
compared to the recent historical trend in seen in first quarter 2009. Conversely, the
2007 and 2008, the employment growth timeliness and sensitivity of these data
rate began to decline. It was not until sets may be early indicators of Wyoming’s
first quarter 2009 that the state began to recovery, while intercounty commuting
experience negative employment growth. data may be more confirmatory in nature.

Discussion Conclusion

The rapid decline in intercounty In this first article of a two-part series,
commuting (see Figures 2 and 3) beginning we examined the interplay between
in mid-2008 suggests the over-the-year commuting flows, rotary drilling rig
change statistic (in conjunction with other counts, first-time applications for
variables) could be used as a leading unemployment insurance, and employment
indicator of growth or contraction in levels. The combination of these four data
Wyoming’s economy. Intracounty sets showed an early indication of
commuting flows (see Figure 1) show that Wyoming’s economic downturn. Such
the current recession is much different than indicators may also provide information as
the economic downturn Wyoming to when the state has exited the recession
experienced earlier in the decade. During and is on the path toward recovery.
that downturn, intracounty commuting
flows were affected very little, while a much (Text continued on page 7)


5.0 140
4.4 122
3.8 104
3.2 86
2.6 68
Wyoming Department of Employment

2.0 50
1.4 32
0.8 14

Change in Employment
Over-the-Year Percentage
0.2 -4
Commuting, Rigs, & Initial Claims

-0.4 -22
Over-the-Year Percentage Change in

-1.0 -40

2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1

Year and Quarter
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rotary Drilling Rigs
Intercounty Commuting Employment
© WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS

November 2009
Figure 3: Wyoming Over-the-Year (OTY) Percentage Changes in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, Rig Counts, Employment, and
Research & Planning

Intercounty Commuting, First Quarter 2002 (2002Q1) to First Quarter 2009 (2009Q1)


12, 2009, from http://doe.
References Jones, S.D. (2006). States state.wy.us/LMI/cheyenne_
of origin for Wyoming mpo_08.pdf
Baker Hughes, Inc. (2009). workers. Wyoming Labor
Rotary rigs by state. Force Trends, 43(4). Wen, S. & Leonard, D.
Retrieved October 22, Retrieved November 10, (2009). Statewide
2009, from http://investor. 2009 from http://doe.state. normalized initial claims
shareholder.com/bhi/rig_ wy.us/LMI/0406/a1.htm by industry in NAICS.
counts/rc_index.cfm Retrieved October 21,
Leonard, D.W. (2009). 2009, from http://doe.
Bullard D. & Brennan Out of State Continued state.wy.us/LMI/ui/UI_
N. (2009). Covered Unemployment Insurance tables.xls
employment and wages Claimants, 2000-2009
for first quarter 2009: (Normalized). Unpublished Wyoming Department of
Jobs and payroll decrease chart. Employment, Research
from year-ago levels. & Planning
Wyoming Labor Force Leonard, D.W. (2008). (2009).
Trends, 46(10). Retrieved Laramie County Quarterly
November 10, 2009 from and Colorado worker Census of
http://doe.state.wy.us/ commuting pattern Employment
LMI/1009/1009.pdf analysis. Retrieved October and Wages.

25.0%
Percentage of Out-of-State Continued Claimants

Percentage of Out-of-State Claimants
12-Month Trailing Moving Average (Claims-Weighted)

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%
Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 4: Percentage of Out-of-State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants, 2000-2009 (Normalized)



Occupation Spotlight

D
id you know there are an estimated 530 dental assistants in
Wyoming?
According to the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
survey, dental assistants in Wyoming earn a mean wage of $13.24
per hour, with an average entry wage of $8.90 per hour. Wage data
for specific occupations is available online at http://doe.state.wy.us/
LMI/oes.htm. Click on the “County and Regional Wages (estimates for Dental
Wyoming wages for September 2009)” link. From there you can select Assistants
statewide or county-specific data on different occupations in Wyoming.

Employment Situation in States Along the Rockies Express
Pipeline Route
by: Phil Ellsworth, Information Specialist

S
ince the earliest days of energy segment pipeline in 2009 differs from most
production in pre-statehood of the pipeline expansions and capacity-
Wyoming, producers have been increasing projects of 2008 in that the
looking for ways to transport their goods previous projects had primarily expanded
to customers without shedding too much capacity along existing distribution routes.
of their profit in the process. The delivery The new pipeline has changed regional
system that began as wagon tracks distribution dynamics that have been
through the sagebrush now forms a in place since the construction boom
spider web of oil and natural gas pipelines following World War II (Energy Information
throughout the state and beyond. Many of Administration, 2009).
these lines are relatively short intracounty
lines, interconnected parts of the gathering Regression analysis by Research &
system. Others, such as the Wyoming- Planning (R&P) has shown that natural
to-California Kern River Pipeline are gas prices from 2000 to 2005 were highly
mammoth, multi-state conduits. In recent correlated with the number of jobs in oil
years, limited pipeline capacity has led to and gas, and crude oil prices explained
lower prices for natural gas produced in much of the variation in oil and gas
Wyoming than for gas produced in areas of employment from 1971 to 1986 (Wen,
the country where pipeline capacity is less 2005).
competitive (Leonard, 2008).
However, a larger contributor to gas
With the recent completion of the 1,679- prices is domestic demand, and that
mile, Colorado-to-Ohio Rockies Express demand will be determined in large
natural gas pipeline (see Map, page 9), a part by the health of the economies
price differential that at times was as much at the eastern end of the pipeline and
as $4 per thousand cubic feet has virtually points beyond. According to the Energy
disappeared (Curran & Farquhar, 2009). Information Administration, 30 states and
According to the U.S. Energy Information the District of Columbia are 85% or more
Administration, the completion of the three- dependent upon the interstate pipeline



WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN MICHIGAN
REX-ENTREGA

NEBRASKA IOWA

REX-WEST INDIANA OHIO
ILLINOIS

COLORADO
REX-EAST
KANSAS

MISSOURI
KENTUCKY
NEW MEXI
CO
OKLAHOMA
TENNESSEE
ARKANSAS

Map: Route of the Rockies Express Pipeline

network for their natural gas supply and Training Administration’s Monthly
(Energy Information Administration, Program and Financial Data tool (http://
2007). Generally speaking, these states www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claimssum.
are in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, asp).
and along the West Coast.

Because the customer base and
Natural Gas Consumption
geographic distribution of consumption is
relatively known, we may well anticipate
the rate at which Wyoming’s natural
gas commodity market can expect to As Table 1 on page 10 shows, the
be stimulated as certain regions of the largest consumers of natural gas in the
country pull out of the recession. nation are electric power generation and
industrial use (28.7% and 28.5% of total
This article offers a brief look at consumption for 2008, respectively).
natural gas consumption and the Residential use makes up a little
employment situation in those states more than one-fifth (21.0%) of total
along the Rockies Express pipeline. consumption. And while use of natural
Unless otherwise noted, total nonfarm gas for electrical power has increased in
employment data were collected for each the nation over the past decade, industrial
of the states through the Bureau of Labor use has declined (see Figure 1, page 10;
Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration,
survey custom table creation tool (http:// 2009a). Part of the decline in industrial
data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm) and are consumption is due to the decline in
seasonally adjusted. For an explanation of manufacturing. As Figure 2 shows (see
seasonal adjustment, see the footnote on page 11), manufacturing employment
page 20. Unemployment insurance claims in the states along the Rockies Express
data were collected via the Employment pipeline route has declined since 1999.



Table 1: U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by End User, 2008 for Wyoming and Rocky
Mountain gas producers.
End Use Million Cubic Percentage of
Feet Total
Electrical Power
Total Consumption 23,195,069 100.0%
Lease and Plant Fuel 1,272,831 5.5%
Generation
Pipeline & Distribution Use 626,888 2.7%
Of the top 10 states
Volumes Delivered to Consumers 21,295,350 91.8%
in terms of natural gas
Residential 4,865,691 21.0% consumption for electrical
Commercial 3,119,988 13.5% power, only New York and
Industrial 6,618,631 28.5% New Jersey are east of
Vehicle Fuel 30,094 0.1% the terminus of the new
Electric Power 6,660,947 28.7% pipeline. Combined, they
represented 8.5% of total
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Retrieved December 10, 2009, from http://tonto.
consumption for power
eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm generation in 2008.

However, the use of natural to a large percentage of Industrial use
gas for electrical power the nation’s residential gas Although industrial
generation and new access customers may bode well consumption of natural
gas has been declining
nationally, 4 of the top
10 states for natural gas
800,000 consumption for industrial
Electric Power Generation purposes are along
Industrial
the pipeline or near its
700,000
terminus. Indiana, Ohio,
Illinois, and Pennsylvania
600,000 together represent 15.4% of
the national consumption
for industrial power.
500,000

Residential use
400,000 Eight of the top 10
Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 states for consumption of
natural gas for residential
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Consumption by End Use. Retrieved
December 10, 2009, from http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm use are within 500 miles
Note: Industrial consumption is de ned as natural gas used for heat, power, or chemical feedstock of the pipeline or its
by manufacturing establishments or those engaged in mining or other mineral extractions as
well as consumers in agriculture, forestry, sheries, and construction. terminus. Illinois, New
York, Michigan, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, New Jersey,
Figure 1: Comparison of September U.S. Consumption of Natural Gas for
Indiana, and Wisconsin
Electrical Power Generation and Industrial Use, 2001 to 2009
combined represent 46.2%



110.0%

Colorado
Wyoming
90.0%
Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Illinois
70.0%
Indiana
Ohio

50.0%
Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 2: September Manufacturing Employment in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline Route as a
Percentage of September 1999 Manufacturing Employment Levels, 1999 to 2009

of the nation’s residential electrical power generation increased dramatically
consumption of natural to fall from 22% to 21% from 1999 to 2009.
gas. due to lower coal prices Employment levels in the
and increased capacity four easternmost states
According to the from renewable sources, on the pipeline – Missouri,
Energy Information including wind power. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio
Administration’s (EIA) – were lower in September
Short-Term Outlook for 2009 than in September
December 8, 2009, overall Employment by 1999. Unemployment
natural gas consumption insurance claims in most of
State: A Measure
for 2009 is expected to be the states along the pipeline
down by 1.9%, and by an of Potential Gas route increased over the
additional 0.4% in 2010 Consumption year from September 2008
(2009b). EIA expects the to September 2009, but had
Henry Hub spot price for decreased over the month
2010 to be $0.67 higher As Figures 3 and 4 from August. Seasonally
than the estimated 2009 show (see pages 12 and 13, adjusted unemployment
price, despite record- respectively), employment rates for all but three states
high working inventories levels in each of the eight declined from August to
of natural gas and lower states along the new September but remained
consumption due to mild pipeline have declined higher over the year. In
weather in November. over the past year, but Illinois and Wyoming, the
The EIA also expects Wyoming’s employment
natural gas’ share of level for September 2009 (Text continued on page 13)



2,353.9
Colorado 2,245.2
2,240.1

301.1
Wyoming 287.8
287.4

964.2
Nebraska 949.6
944.4

1,388.3
Kansas 1,337.1
Sept 2008
1,330.9

Aug 2009
2,790.2
Missouri 2,712.9
Sept 2009
2,710.5

5,941.6
Illinois 5,648.9
5,638.8

2,946.9
Indiana 2,806.7
2,804.0

5,355.3
Ohio 5,103.1
5,097.0

0.0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Total Nonfarm Employment (Thousands)

Figure 3: Total Nonfarm Employment in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline Route. Source: Current
Employment Statistics (CES) program, a joint federal-state cooperative survey of establishments.



(Text continued from page 11) for mining, and construction of buildings
(Colorado Department of Labor &
unemployment rate increased over the Employment, 2009a) – all relatively high
month, and in Missouri it was unchanged. paying industries.
Research & Planning publishes Employment on
unemployment rates for all states each Colorado’s 12.0%
month in Wyoming Labor Force Trends; Western Slope, 10.0%
readers may want to watch the following where the 8.0%
states’ rates to gain a better sense of where Rockies Express
6.0%
the natural gas market is headed. originates, is
4.0%
heavily dependent
upon mining and 2.0%
Colorado

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009
oil and gas
From September 2008 to September development.
2009, total nonfarm payroll employment in Local Figure 5: Colorado seasonally
Colorado declined by 112,100 jobs. Over that communities adjusted unemployment rate,
period, the state lost 28,300 jobs in likely will see a 1999 to 2009
professional & business services and 25,600 benefit if the
jobs in construction. According to the price differential between Rockies Express
Colorado Department of Labor and natural gas and natural gas sold elsewhere
Employment, the three slowest growing remains small. The September 2009
industries are computer and electronic unemployment rate for Colorado was 7.0%, a
product manufacturing, support activities decrease from August (7.3%; see Figure 5),

130.0%
Percentage of September 1999 Levels

120.0% Wyoming
Colorado
Nebraska
Kansas
110.0%
Missouri
Illinois
Indiana
100.0% Ohio

90.0%
Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 4: September Employment in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline as a Percentage of September
1999 Employment Levels, 1999 to 2009



but higher than the September 2008 rate, from 6.6% in August to 6.8% in September
5.0% (Colorado, 2009b). (not a statistically significant increase;
see Figure 6), it remained lower than
Initial unemployment claims were the national rate of 9.8%. Over the year,
156.8% higher in September 2009 than Wyoming employment decreased by 12,900
they were a year earlier, while continued jobs (4.2%). The largest job losses were in
weeks claimed for the month were natural resources & mining (-6,000 jobs,
231.3% higher than for September 2008 or -19.9%) and construction (-4,600 jobs,
(Employment & Training Administration, or -15.3%). Over the month, seasonal job
2009). gains in government (5,300 jobs) were
more than offset by job losses in most
industry sectors. County unemployment
Wyoming rates for September increased in most
From first quarter 1988 through fourth counties, and ranged from 8.2% in Big
quarter 2008, Wyoming’s unemployment Horn County to 3.6% in Albany County
insurance-covered employment grew – a (see page 25).
stretch of economic expansion in which
Wyoming total payroll topped the $3 Initial unemployment insurance claims
billion mark in September 2008 and a were 201.9% higher in September 2009
record was set than in September 2008, but the 2,804
for number of 12.0% claims were far fewer than the 4,796
jobs in the state 10.0% reported in March 2009. Continued weeks
(294,463). But 8.0%
claimed were 335.6% higher in September
in first quarter 2009 than in September 2008. The 29,356
6.0%
2009, the 21- continued claims for September 2009
4.0%
year streak of were considerably lower than the 36,620
over-the-year 2.0% for August 2009 and the peak of 43,026
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

growth ended, for May 2009. Wyoming unemployment
as the national insurance claims are published each
recession that Figure 6: Wyoming seasonally month in Wyoming Labor Force Trends.
began in adjusted unemployment rate,
December 2007 1999 to 2009
began to show
Nebraska
effects in Wyoming. Total payroll declined From September 2008 to September
by $36.0 million, and job growth fell to 2009, Nebraska non-farm employment
-1.1%. Employment declined by 3,535 jobs declined by an estimated 23,434 jobs,
in construction, and by 1,121 jobs in retail including a decline of 9,979 manufacturing
trade. Job losses were also seen in jobs. The state’s seasonally adjusted
accommodation & food services, unemployment rate increased over the
manufacturing, and administrative & year from 3.4% to 4.9%, but remained far
waste services. Job gains occurred in below the national unemployment rate (see
state, local and federal government and in Figure 7, page 15). (Unemployment Rate
health care & social assistance, and other Information for September 2009)
services (Bullard, 2009).
Nebraska’s initial unemployment claims
Although Wyoming’s seasonally declined from 7,634 in August 2009 to
adjusted unemployment rate increased 7,159 in September, but were still higher



than the 4,964 initial claims reported in 17,574 in September, just 1,666 higher
September than the number for September 2008
2008. 12.0% (15,908). Continued claims declined by
Continued 10.0% 43,030 over the month, but were 62.5%
claims declined 8.0%
higher than the September 2008 level.
from 91,709 in
6.0%
August to
70,911 in 4.0% Missouri
September, but 2.0% 1999 Total nonfarm employment in Missouri
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009
remained nearly declined by an estimated 79,700 jobs from
double the September 2008 to September 2009, and
September Figure 7: Nebraska seasonally by 2,400 jobs from August 2009 to
2008 level of adjusted unemployment rate, September 2009. The largest over-the-year
37,738. 1999 to 2009 losses were in manufacturing (-29,100),
construction
(-18,800), and
Kansas professional &
12.0%
10.0%
Kansas lost an estimated 59,700 jobs business
8.0%
from September 2008 to September 2009, services
a 4.3% decrease. Among the sectors with (-15,000). Gains 6.0%

job losses were manufacturing (-26,400 in educational 4.0%
jobs), professional & business services & health 2.0%

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009
(-13,400), and trade, transportation, & services (8,600)
utilities and government
(-8,700). (7,300) were
12.0% Figure 9: Missouri seasonally
Continued more than offset adjusted unemployment rate,
10.0%
claims for by losses in 1999 to 2009
8.0%
unemployment these and other
insurance 6.0% sectors (Bureau
declined from 4.0% of Labor Statistics, 2009).
222,219 in 2.0%
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

August to Missouri’s seasonally adjusted
180,202 in unemployment rate was unchanged from
September, but August to September (9.5%), and up from
Figure 8: Kansas seasonally
were still 6.3% in September 2008 (see Figure
adjusted unemployment rate,
substantially 1999 to 2009 9; Missouri Department of Economic
higher than the Development, 2009).
109,253 claims
in September 2008. The state
unemployment rate declined from 7.2% in
Illinois
August to 6.9% in September, but was still Total nonfarm employment in Illinois
considerably higher than the 4.6% rate of decreased by 302,800 from September
September 2008 (see Figure 8; Kansas 2008 to September 2009, and by 10,100
Department of Labor, 2009). from August 2009 to September 2009. The
largest over-the-year job losses were in
Initial unemployment insurance claims manufacturing (-79,100 jobs), professional
dropped from 20,750 in August 2009 to & business services (-72,000), and trade,



transportation, & utilities (-61,100). Total peak of 108,832 claims the state hit in
employment declined from August 2009 December 2008. Over-the-month initial
to September 2009 by 10,100 jobs despite claims were lower as well, down 5,469
a gain of 8,200 in government (Illinois from August 2009. Continued claims,
Department of Employment Security, which peaked at 785,747 in March 2009,
2009a). increased from 287,663 in September
2008 to 392,016
Illinois’ seasonally adjusted in September 12.0%
unemployment rate rose from 10.0% in 2009, but 10.0%
August to 10.5% in September. The rate in declined from 8.0%
September 2008 was 6.7% (see Figure 10; August to
6.0%
Illinois Department of Employment September by
4.0%
Security, 2009b). 128,213.
2.0%
12.0%

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009
Initial 10.0%
Indiana’s
unemployment seasonally
8.0%
insurance adjusted Figure 11: Indiana seasonally
6.0%
claims in unemployment adjusted unemployment rate,
Illinois 4.0% rate rose 1999 to 2009
increased by 2.0% from 6.1% in
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

21,981 from September 2008 to 9.7% in September
September 2008 2009, but declined over the month from
to September Figure 10: Illinois seasonally
9.9% in August (see Figure 11).
2009, but adjusted unemployment rate,
decreased 1999 to 2009
from August
Ohio
to September by 1,924. Continued weeks Total nonfarm employment in Ohio
claimed were up by 506,031 over the decreased by 258,100 from September
year, but down by 86,455 from August to 2008 to September 2009, with the largest
September. job losses in manufacturing (-115,900),
professional & business services (-54,100),
and trade, transportation, & utilities
Indiana (-51,700).
From September 2008 to September According to a 12.0%
2009, Indiana shed an estimated 135,800 report by the 10.0%
jobs, including 73,600 in manufacturing, Ohio Department
8.0%
24,900 in trade, transportation, & utilities, of Job and
6.0%
and 23,800 in construction. Over-the- Family Services,
month job gains were seen in government Ohio’s 4.0%
(3,600 jobs), manufacturing (3,000), employment 2.0%
1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

and professional & business services peaked in 2000,
(2,900; Indiana Department of Workforce but never fully
Development, 2009). recovered from Figure 12: Ohio seasonally
the 2001 adjusted unemployment rate,
Initial unemployment claims declined recession. In 1999 to 2009
from 41,012 in September 2008 to 35,627 both goods-
in September 2009 and far lower than the producing and services-providing sectors,



Ohio has underperformed U.S. averages seen effects of the current economic
since 2000 (Horner, 2009). downturn, although several are showing
signs of recovery through reductions in
Ohio’s seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance claims and
unemployment rate for September 2009 lower unemployment rates. Total nonfarm
was 10.1%, down from 10.8% in August employment in all of the states along the
2009, but higher than the September 2008 pipeline was lower in September 2009
rate of 6.8%. than in September 2008.

Initial unemployment insurance claims
in Ohio fell from 75,503 in August 2009 References
to 67,321 in September 2009, still 1,660
higher over the year, but far lower than
the peak of 144,682 from December 2008. Bullard, D. (2009). Covered employment
Continued claims fell from 1,021,347 and wages for first quarter 2009: Jobs
in August to 746,758 in September. and payroll decrease from year-ago levels.
There were 467,481 continued claims in Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 46(10),
September 2008. 1. Retrieved November 29, 2009, from
http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/1009/a1.htm

Summary Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.).
Employment, hours, and earnings from
the Current Employment Statistics
The Wyoming economy is closely tied survey (state and metro area). Retrieved
to natural gas production, but Rocky December 10, 2009, from http://data.bls.
Mountain gas producers have historically gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm
been paid less for gas than producers
in other markets because they have had Colorado Department of Labor and
to compete for limited pipeline capacity. Employment (2009). Labor Market Facts:
This disparity will likely be diminished What Are the Slowest-Growing Jobs in an
by the addition of the Rockies Express Area? Retrieved November 27, 2009, from
Pipeline to the nation’s gas distribution Long-Term Industry Projections, 2008-2018.
system. This new pipeline opens new
markets for Wyoming natural gas, but Curran, D., & Farquhar, B. (2009,
prices will still be driven by demand in November 17). Gov celebrates
the states along the pipeline and points opening of Rockies Express Pipeline.
beyond. Use of natural gas for electrical Wyoming Business Report. Retrieved
power generation is expected to decline November 24, 2009, from http://www.
somewhat in the short term, but has been wyomingbusinessreport.com/article.
increasing overall since 2001. Industrial asp?id=103047
consumption has declined over the same
period. Residential use makes up a Employment & Training Administration,
smaller percentage of overall consumption, United States Department of Labor.
but Wyoming gas producers will now have (2009). Monthly Program and Financial
greater access to a larger percentage of Data. Retrieved December 8, 2009, from
the nation’s residential gas customers. http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/
All of the states along the pipeline have claimssum.asp



Energy Information Administration. adjusted employment estimates. Retrieved
(2007). Interstate Natural Gas Supply December 10, 2009, from http://www.
Dependency, 2007. Retrieved November hoosierdata.in.gov/publookup/default.
24, 2009, from http://www.eia.doe.gov/ aspx
pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_
publications/ngpipeline/interstate.html Kansas Department of Labor. (2009,
October 21). September 2009 Labor
Energy Information Administration. Report. Retrieved November 29, 2009,
(2009a). Expansion of the U.S. natural from http://www.dol.ks.gov/lmis/newsrel/
gas pipeline network: Additions in 2008 pr0910/pr0910.html
and projects through 2011. Retrieved
December 21, 2009, from http://www. Leonard, D. W. (2008). Barriers to Growth
eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/ in Wyoming’s Economy. Wyoming Labor
feature_articles/2009/pipelinenetwork/ Force Trends, 45(5), 1-11.
pipelinenetwork.pdf
Missouri Department of Economic
Energy Information Administration. Development. (2009, October 14). DED
(2009b). Short-Term Energy Outlook. releases September 2009 state jobs
Retrieved. December 21, 2009, from report. Retrieved December 10, 2009,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/ from http://www.ded.mo.gov/cgi-bin/
contents.html dispress.pl?txtpressid=219

Horner, L., & Calig, J. (2009). In 2009 Nebraska Department of Labor. (2009,
Economic analysis: Responding to November). Unemployment Rate
recession, preparing for recovery. Ohio Information for September 2009 (n.d.).
Department of Job and Family Services, Retrieved November 29, 2009, from
Office. Retrieved November 29, 2009, http://www.dol.nebraska.gov/nwd/lmi/
from http://ohiolmi.com/research/2009O es/trends/trends/Nov09/County%20
hioEconomicAnalysis.pdf Unemployment%20Rates.pdf

Illinois Department of Employment Ohio Department of Job and Family
Security. (2009a) CES Monthly Statewide Services. (2009, October 16). Ohio and
Data file. Retrieved December 10, 2009, U.S. employment situation (seasonally
from http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/cesfiles/ adjusted). Retrieved December 21, 2009,
cesmonthlysa.htm from http://jfs.ohio.gov/releases/unemp/
200910/UnempPressRelease.asp
Illinois Department of Employment
Security. (2009b, November 19). Wen, S. (2005). Oil and gas production
National recession pushes state rate and the relationship between prices
to 11.0 percent. Retrieved December and employment in Wyoming. Wyoming
10, 2009, from http://www.illinois. Labor Force Trends, 42(9),
gov/PressReleases/ShowPressRelease. 1. Retrieved November
cfm?SubjectID=1&RecNum=8038 24, 2009, from http://doe.
state.wy.us/LMI/0905/
Indiana Department of Workforce a1.htm
Development. (2009). Publications
Lookup Tool. Monthly CES seasonally


Twelve-Month Percentage Point Increase in Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment
Rates by State, September 2008 to September 2009
Research & Planning

November 2009
AK

WA

MT ME
ND
OR VT
MN NH
ID SD NY MA
WI
WY MI CT
RI
PA NJ
IA
NE DE
NV OH
IL IN MD
UT
CA WV DC
CO VA
KS MO
KY
© WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS

NC
TN

AZ OK
NM AR SC
Increase in Percentage Points
MS AL GA from September 2008
to September 2009
TX More than 4.4%
LA

FL 3.0% to 4.4%
HI
1.5% to 2.9%

Less than 1.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Extracted January 4, 2010.

Page 19
Wyoming Department of Employment

Economic Indicators of Wyoming\'s Economic Health: Part I

Economic Indicators of Wyoming\'s Economic Health: Part I

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Andere mochten auch

Andere mochten auch (10)

Economic Indicators of Wyoming\'s Economic Health: Part I