1) SHARE OF RUSSIA IN THE GLOBAL NEW CARS SALES BY BRANDS 2) TOP 20 RUSSIAN REGIONS WITH OVER 1000K PASSENGER CARS 3) NEW CAR SALES (LOCAL PRODUCTION IMPORTS) IN RUSSIA 2008 – 2016 4) CAR MANUFACTURING IN RUSSIA IN 2008-2015 5) PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN RUSSIA, 2015 6) SRUCTURE OF RUSSIN CAR MARKET BY SEGMENTS, 2015 7) LEADERS AND OUTSIDERS BY MAKE-MODEL, 2015 8) RUSSIN CAR MARKET DYNAMICS IN 2015 (JAN-DEC) 9) CHINESE BRANDS IN RUSSIA 10) DREAM CAR FOR AVERAGE RUSSIAN CAR DRIVER IN 2015 11) MORE FACTS 12) PERSPECTIVES OF CAR SALES IN RUSSIA (TILL 2025)

1. MITTEL
Market Research & Consulting
PASSENGER CAR MARKET
IN RUSSIA, 2015
KEY FIGURES - DESK RESEARCH REPORT
Based on Autostat and State Statistics Agency data, 2014 - 2016

2. 0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
Toyota
Volkswagen
Ford
Hyundai
Nissan
Chevrolet
KIA
Mercedes
Renault
Peugeot
BMW
Audi
Fiat
Mazda
Suzuki
Jeep
Citroen
Opel
Mitsubishi
Skoda
GreatWall
Subaru
Dongfeng
Lexus
Geely
Volvo
Chery
Isuzu
LandRover
Mini
Sales in Russia, 2015, pcs World sales 2015, pcs
1,2% 1,3% 0,6% 3,3% 1,9% 1,1% 5,2% 2,4% 5,7% 0,3% 1,4% 1,4% 0,2% 1,8% 0,4% 0,2% 0,5% 1,2% 3,3% 5,2% 0,3% 0,7% 0,2% 3,1% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,1% 2,9% 0,4%
In 2015 the world sales of new cars (including LCV) totaled 8.94 mln.
In Russia the new car sales marked only 1.6 mln level. Which is 1.8% of the
world’s. In 2014 this figure was 2.9%.
SHARE OF RUSSIA IN THE GLOBAL NEW CARS SALES BY BRANDS

3. 12.32
7.31
5.51 5.22
4.32 4.23 4.07 3.87 3.50 3.26 3.20 2.86 2.80 2.76 2.54 2.48 2.41 2.33 2.18 1.933.79
2.52
1.64 1.63 1.21 1.22 1.12 1.18 1.01 0.86 0.98 0.82 0.72 0.76 0.66 0.69 0.68 0.70 0.64 0.89
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Moscowcity
Moscowreg(w/oMoscow)
KrasnodarskiyKray
St.Petersburg
Sverdlovskreg
Rostovreg
Bashkortostan
Tatarstan
Chelyabinskreg
NizhniyNovgorodreg
Samarareg
KrasnoyarskiyKray
StavropolsliyKray
Novosibirskreg
Volgogradreg
Saratovreg
Irkutskreg
Voronezhreg
Kemerovoreg
PrimorskiyKray
Population, Mln Number of cars, Mln
Dec 2015
Total passenger car fleet in Russia by 01.01.2016 was almost 41 millions of
cars.
Moscow and Moscow region make 16% of total car fleet in Russia.
TOP 20 RUSSIAN REGIONS WITH OVER 1000K PASSENGER CARS

4. 2.74
1.36
1.78
2.48
2.75
2.61
2.34
1.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sales of new cars. Mln of pcs
Change Y2Y +16% -50% +30% +39% +11% -5% -10% -36%
Cost of
barrel
Millions of cars
Difference
to 2015
70$ 1.45 – 1.50 0%
60$ 1.35 – 1.10 - 10%
40$ 1.10 – 1.20 - 30%
FORECAST
Influence of the
global crisis
Influence of
local crisis
NEW CAR SALES (LOCAL PRODUCTION IMPORTS) IN RUSSIA 2008 –
2016F

5. 593,880
360,000
629,200
1,088,500
1,325,810 1,386,660 1,253,300
893,750
876,120
240,000
580,800
661,500
644,190 523,340
406,700
356,250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Foreign makes Russian makes
Total , mln 1.47 0.60 1.21 1.75 1.97 1.91 1.66 1.25
Change +14% -59% +102% +45% +13% -3% -13% -25%
 The largest volume of car manufacturing in Russia was in 2012.
 Currently in Russia 100 models of 23 brands are being produced. The share of foreign localized makes was highest
in 2014 toping 75.5%.
CAR MANUFACTURING IN RUSSIA IN 2008-2015

6. Total number of cars 40.9 mln
Average age 12.5 years
Foreign makes 58%
Above 15 years old 32%
Diesel cars 4.5%
Euro-4 28%
SUV 20%
41.5
22.1
9.7
9.3
7.4
4.6
5.4
Russian makes Japanese makes
German makes Korean makes
American makes French makes
Others
PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN RUSSIA, 2015

7. Segment Share, %
Dynamics
2015 to 2014
Leading model in segment
Thousands
of pcs
Dynamics
Y2Y
В 39,8 -20,0% LADA Granta 120 -21,4%
SUV 36,2 -40,7% Renault Duster 43,9 -42,3%
C 11,5 -53,7% Nissan Almera 26 -43,8%
D 5,4 -31,6% Toyota Camry 30,1 -11,7%
LAV 2,8 -43,6% LADA Largus 39 -40,2%
E 1,3 -33,6% Mercedes E-class 4,9 -23,2%
MPV 0,9 -60,1% KIA Soul 6 -10,3%
PICKUP 0,8 -49,7% Toyota Hilux 3,8 -44,6%
A 0,5 -59,7% Daewoo Matiz 4,5 -52,5%
F 0,4 -17,5% Mercedes S-class 3 -29,1%
Coupe
Cabriolet 0,3 19,9% Mercedes E-coupe 1,1 -29,0%
SRUCTURE OF RUSSIN CAR MARKET BY SEGMENTS, 2015

8. Group Sales*
Change, Y2Y,
%
Share, %
AUTOVAZ-RENAULS-NISSAN 517 799 -32,20% 32,30%
HYUNDAI-KIA 324 701 -13,50% 20,30%
VW GROUP 164 806 -36,80% 10,30%
TOYOTA GROUP 118 373 -34,60% 7,40%
GM GROUP 67 589 -64,30% 4,20%
GAZ LCV 51 192 -26,20% 3,20%
MERCEDES-BENZ 50 414 -16,70% 3,10%
UAZ 48 739 -2,20% 3,00%
FORD 38 607 -41,50% 2,40%
MITSUBISHI 35 909 -55,20% 2,20%
Top 10 manufacturers
Brand Model Sales*
Change, Y2Y,
%
1 LADA Granta 120 182 -21,40%
2 HYUNDAI Solaris 115 868 1,10%
3 KIA Rio 97 097 3,70%
4 VW Polo 45 390 -23,00%
5 RENAULT Duster 43 923 -42,30%
6 RENAULT Logan 41 311 -31,60%
7 LADA Largus 38 982 -40,20%
8 LADA Kalina 35 869 -45,30%
9 LADA 4x4 35 312 -17,70%
10 CHEVROLET Niva 31 367 -27,80%
11 RENAULT Sandero 30 211 -18,00%
12 TOYOTA Camry 30 136 -11,70%
13 LADA Priora 28 507 -40,40%
14 TOYOTA RAV 4 27 102 -30,40%
15 NISSAN Almera 25 977 -43,80%
16 SKODA Rapid 24 547 22,90%
17 DATSUN on-DO 23 643 107,10%
18 SKODA Octavia A7 21 373 -39,40%
19 KIA Sportage 20 751 -32,20%
20 NISSAN X-Trail 20 502 -13,00%
TOP 20 Models
* Including LCV
In 2015 the total car sales in Russian reduced by 35,7% comparing
to 2014.
GM Group faced the largest sales reduction (due to leaving the
market) while Russian UAZ the lowest. Largest growth of sales was
shown by Datsun on-DO model (market newcomer).
LEADERS AND OUTSIDERS BY MAKE-MODEL, 2015

9. -2.2%
-10.3%
-16.4%
-30.5%
-34.8%
-35.9%
-38.1%
-38.3%
-38.8%
-39.4%
-41.5%
-43.8%
-45.7%
-46.1%
-53.1%
-55.2%
-59.6%
-61.0%
-67.2%
-72.5%
-72.6%
-73.2%
-74.3%
-77.6%
-79.2%
UAZ 48 739
Huyndai 161 201
KIA 163 500
LADA 269 096
Skoda 55 012
Lifan 15 131
Renault 120 411
Geely 11 617
VW 78 390
Toyota 98 149
Ford 38 607
Nissan 91 100
Daewoo 20 451
Mazda 27 358
FIAT 3 799
Mitsubishi 35 909
Chevrolet 49 765
Subaru 6 852
Suzuki 6 540
Citroen 5 528
Chery 4 964
Peugeot 5 645
Opel 16 682
Honda 4 622
SsangYong 5 194
Total
market
share
90.2%
Mass
segments
Dynamics: –37.5%
Total sales: 1 385 311 pcs
12.40%
5.60%
-13.70%
-15.40%
-22.60%
-22.90%
-24.60%
-34.80%
-38.80%
-40.30%
-45.10%
-49.20%
Cadillac 1 142
Mercedes-Benz 41 614
BMW 27 486
Mini 1 350
Audi 25 650
Acura 721
Infiniti 5 495
Jaguar 972
Land Rover 11 605
Volvo 7 831
Porsche 5 290
Lexus 20 224
Premium
segments
Dynamics: –23%
Total sales: 149 895 pcs
Total
market
share
9.8%
RUSSIN CAR MARKET DYNAMICS IN 2015 (JAN-DEC)

10. Brand
Total sales in
2015
Y2Y 2014
15 131 -52%
11 617 -38%
4 964 -73%
3 181 -79%
1 365 Entered in 2014
1 202 +26%
Others 1 293
TOTAL 38 753 -52%
The most popular Chinese model
in 2015 is Lifan X60. Total sales
equal to 8300 cars.
Market share of Chinese cars in the Russian market in 2014 and 2015
Year 2014 2015
Total passenger cars sales 2 340 000 1 500 000
Total Chinese passenger cars sales 81 292 38 753
Market share (%) 3,5% 2,6%
 Almost 40% of current owners of Chinese cars changed
to them from LADA.
 Main alternative considered brands were Renault, KIA
and LADA.
 35% of current owners are ready to consider Chinese car
as their next purchase.
The share of Chinese makes on the market is growing. Immediately
after market entry the level of rejection was extremely high. But with
passing of time the opinion of Chinese makes is improving. However
the forecasts are not good. Only 2 brands are expected to remain in
the market – Lifan and Geely
CHINESE BRANDS IN RUSSIA

11. Crossover / SUV 48%
4WD 71%
Gasoline engine 69%
Power 150 - 200 hp 34%
Automated transmission 70%
Color - black or white 48%
Average price, Rubles 837 000
 Among 26 000 Russian car drivers surveyed in October 2015 almost half would dream of Сrossover / SUV.
Autostat and drom.ru online survey across all Federal Districts in Russia, 10.2015
 The other characteristics the dream car should
have are following:
In fact, Russians do love crossovers and SUVs.
On focus group discussions respondents explain
their love by rational advantages of vehicle type –
poor road condition in the country on the one hand
and all-terrain maneuverability, solidity of carbody,
on the other hand. But actually, on the emotional
level, the feeling of superiority on the road given by
the high rising seat and larger size of SUV are more
important for respondents.
DREAM CAR FOR AVERAGE RUSSIAN CAR DRIVER IN 2015

12. Total market reduction in 2015: – 35%
Market in 2016:
 Pessimistic scenario – the market is expected to reduce on another -15% (comparing to 2015
results).
 Optimistic scenario – the sales will be the same as in 2015.
Withdrawal from the market:
 GM / Opel
 Seat
Loosing positions and reducing presence in the market:
 Honda & Acura
 SsangYong
 Suzuki
 Chrysler
 Jeep
 Ford – 4 times sales reduction comparing to 2008
 Peugeot and Citroen – 6 to 8 times sales reduction comparing to 2010
New expected launches:
 Hatchback X-RAY (LADA)
 Sedan Vesta (LADA) new modifications
 Compact crossover Hyundai Creta
 New generation of business sedan KIA Optima
 New generation of crossover KIA Sportage
 Ravon brand (Uzbekistan) to replace Daewoo
Premium segment and
brands
- Mercedes - Benz
- Lexus
- Porsche
- BMW
- Audi
almost do not lose their
positions in the current
market conditions.
But best of all lux cars are
feeling:
- All ordered for Russian
market cars Ferrari,
Lamborghini and Bentley
were all sold out before
even reaching the land of
Moscow.
Retail prices on new cars during the period of 1,5 years (from
Sep 2014 to Feb 2015) increased on 35%
MORE FACTS

13. Level of sales by Y2012
Optimistic Scenario
Basic Scenario
Recovery of car sales by
the level of Y2012
 Rehabilitation of new car sales in Russia (by the highest level fixed in 2012) is expected only by 2020.
 By the same year the manufacturing of new cars on the Russian market is expected to reach 2.8 mln of cars (currently
1.25 mln).
 Car import is to be mostly replaced by local production of international brands after localization. The more localization
degree in brand production the more better perspectives on the local market is expected by the year 2020.
PERSPECTIVES OF CAR SALES IN RUSSIA (TILL 2025)

14. ClientsType of projects:
 Car clinics: static and dynamic with car drive, photo clinic
 Fly-in car-clinics (Paris, Munich)
 New buyers satisfaction study
 After-service satisfaction study
 Market exploration study
 Ethnographic study (home visits, joint driving, day-in-life, video dairies)
 Drive log survey
 Dealers surveys and audits
 Purchase journey study
 Marketing and communication strategy study
 On-line communities and BBs
 Monthly monitorings
 Brand health study
Total number of implemented
projects since 2010: 57
MITTEL EXPERIENCE IN AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

15. Independent full-cycle market research agency located in Moscow, Russia
Founded in 2006
ESOMAR member since 2006
Member of 3D international network since 2010
Member of Digital Insight Network since 2015
Number of stuff – 26 full time employees
Number of interviewers in Moscow - 900, in Federal Districts – over 3000
Annual turnover – over 1 000 000 USD
FACTS
Doing fieldwork in:
 Russia
 Belarus
 Ukraine
 Kazakhstan
 Uzbekistan
 Baltic States

16. We will be happy to answer any questions connected with this research proposal:
Lev Astafyev
Executive director
Head of qualitative research department
E-mail: lev.astafiev@mittel-mgu.ru
Anna Bordovskaya
Head of quantitative research department
E-mail: anna.bordovskaya@mittel-mgu.ru
MITTEL MGU Market Research & Consulting
Russian Federation, 115162, Moscow, 18, Khavskaya str, bld.2
Tel.: +7 495 792 5418 Fax: +7 495 958 6855 E-mail: info@mittel-mgu.ru www.mittel-mgu.ru
CONTACT US!
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