AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Mathematical Modelling of Social Systems" course. 5th hour. Part 1.

1. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
SYSTEM ANALYSIS,
FORESEES
AND MANAGEMENT OF
E-SERVICES IMPACTS ON
INFORMATIONAL SOCIETIES
Professor Alexander MAKARENKO
Institute for Applied System Analysis at National Technical University
of Ukraine (KPI),
makalex@i.com.ua

2. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 General problems of interrelations of society and
e- servises are considered.
 The system analysis of informational aspects of
society is proposed which are important for
development of informational technologies (IT).
 New concept for considering and modeling the
society, e- servises and informational
technologies are described.
 The problems of society and large cities are
considered as the examples for application of
concepts and the problems of e- servises
development.
 The challenges and dangers of introducing of
new information technologies are discussed.

3. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
1. Introduction
Recent ideas:
information society (IS),
 knowledge- based society,
 post- industrial society etc.
Informational technologies (IT) for IS – e- services:
 e- governance,
 e- learning,
 e- health,
 e- business,
 e- security,
 e- cartography.
Because of very fast growth of IT and e- services
the practical realizations of projects and
infrastructure development usually forestall the
detailed theoretical investigations and foresees
of future state of IT and IS.
 We propose considerations on the interaction of IT and society,
the possible role of e- services in society transformation,
the searching of optimal way for e- services development,
possible profits and dangers during such development.

4. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
2. Some general considerations
 First of all we should stress that
informational technologies in
developed society are not only
technical object but socio- technical
phenomena that is part of the society
with self- influence on the society.
 So the considering of IT and IS
phenomena requires accounting of
social aspects. Useful tools for such
accounting are supplied by system
analysis, cybernetics, synergetic.

5. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
The issues from system
analysis:
 holism (that is considering the system as the whole)
 hierarchical levels in the system
 complexity of the system
 emergent of new properties
 evolutionary nature of the systems
 different space and time scales in the systems
 complex interaction between elements
 mentality accounting in analysis
 the goals, laws of evolution of the systems
 influence of environment
 stability and sustainable development
 different scenarios of development
 risks and dangers for system
 leverage points and bifurcations

6. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 The experience in system analysis allows to remark that the
understanding of large complex systems is impossible
without using mathematical models, simulation and
optimization methods.
 Other necessary issues are costs, profits and damages.
 For better understanding of IT&IS it is also desirable
philosophical understanding of the society nature,
human nature (especially mentality), society culture,
behavior, social psychology, ecology, medicine, laws.
 Different practical consequences from the analysis may be
derived: foresees, strategic planning, current
management in dependence of the time and space volume
of the process. One of the important goals may be
democratic transformation of society.
 Of course different approaches and investigations have
been proposed by many researchers and businessman
earlier. We only remember cellular automate, multi –
agent systems, system dynamics, imitational games
etc.
 But the accelerating of changes follows to the conclusion
that the new approaches should be developed.

7. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
3. Associative memory approach
to large socio- technical
systems (Makarenko, 1998,
2001)
‘Patterns’
 The ‘pattern’ is the collection of elements and
bonds between them at any moment of time.
 Such description is useful as for environment as
for the mental structures of individuals (or agents
in the models).
 Such ‘geometrical’ description may be
transformed in pure ‘logical’ or sometimes
‘linguistic’ description

8. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

9. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 Firstly in complex system dynamic there
exist some global structures (for
example formations or civilisations).
 The socio-technical system as the rule
change in the frame of such structures.
 Secondly, alternation in elements state
frequently is determined by the
influence of some environment. This
can be described by some mean field
approach .
 There are many interrelations between
the elements of complex systems (and
not only in social but also in natural
systems).

10. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 There are many sub-processes in such system –
communicational, political, social, cultural and so on.
 The system can go from one global structure to another by two
ways: evolutionary or by revolution.
 Revolution can be described by fast rupture of bonds and may
be unpredictable.
 Evolutionary way is long and demands patience.
 Yet on such global level there are phenomena of life- cycle type.
 For example, the change of social formation may be considered
as the change of "patterns" in such models.
 Branch of industry may be considered as union of producers,
consumers and mediators.
 These relations have the same properties as the subjects of
global model:
 The bonds are build evolutionary, all structure of industry
branch is rather stable,

11. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

12. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

13. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

14. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
Anticipatory property for social
systems and scenarios
 Now it became known that one of very
interesting for understanding the society
property is anticipating.
 The main essential new property is the
possibility of multi-valued solution (that
is many values of solution for some
moments of time and initial conditions).
This may be interpreted as the
possibility of many scenarios of
development for real social systems.
 The second key issue is connected to
property that the real social system has
single realization of historical way
(trajectory). So the social system as the
whole makes the choice of the own
trajectory at any moment of time.

15. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
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0 1 2 3 t

16. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
SOME APPLICATIONS
 COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING
 AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING
 FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF
HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY
 DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS
 MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET
PROCESSES
 SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN
LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS
 ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN
DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL
ANALOGIES.
 SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE
 SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS
 GIS

17. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
4. e- services for cities
 Here as the first example for system analysis
we consider the large city.
 Such considerations may serve as some
background for investigations of e- services
problems in the cities and practical
solutions.
 According our approach the large city is the
complex object with many elements and
interconnections between them.
 So the large city has a little number of hardly
changeable natural states of development.
 Attractors in our models correspond to such
states.

18. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 Thus approach allows in principle to evaluate the
future states of cities, the future city center(s)
location, fragmentation or consolidation of city.
 Natural and relatively easy measurable
phenomena and objects - geography, climate,
resources, demography, and ecology also may be
accounted in approach.
 Useful is application of geoinformational systems
of local and regional levels.
 Such parameters as the mentality, mobility of
habitants may be represented in approach.
 The special space and time scales should be
accounting in case of city just as the specific
formalizations of parameters.
 The approach may be useful as the framework
concept for concrete problems investigations and
e-services design.

19. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
5. Example of problem: Cheap
notebook for all
 As the presumable problem (which may be typical for
many IT tools) we propose the example of cheep (100$)
notebooks program proposed by team of Nikolas
Negroponte (MIT, USA).
 The main idea of the program is to propose free of
charge the cheep notebook with independent power
generator for developing countries.
 This is interesting example for further deep analysis
including the social impact, e- services development,
advantages and possible drawback.
 Let us suppose that this program will be realized.
 So imagine the limit case that all peoples in developed
countries will receive the notebook and access to
INTERNET.
 What are the possible consequences?

20. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 A lot of profit exists (digital inequality decreasing, new
possibilities, new education, new skills etc).
 But some dangers also will rise (implicit and explicit).
 For example if the peoples will receive new skills
without employment then we may receive the
environment for crimes and terrorism (with dependence
of original culture of the country).
 Second problem is presumable reducing of the culture
diversity and total control of society.
 Third is the growth of accessible information without its
transformation into knowledge.
 Some usual for PC consumer health problems also may
originate.
 Another interesting problem is counting economical
cost and optimal parameters of implementation such
idea.
 Remark that described problems may be considered as
one of typical examples in e- services implementation.

21. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
6. Country as large scale social
system
 Illustration of the ideas above – that is some problems
and background in e-services application.
 Here we consider the country level and especially the
problems of developing countries with stressing the
Ukrainian experience as the background.
 Remark that such list of problems is the result of
previous discussions and the system analysis.
 Also some efforts have been applied to resolve the
problems during the experience of NGO Atlantic
Council of Ukraine and some discussion in
EUROSCIENCE society.
 Besides new education specialty 'social informatics'
had been created in our institute with the purpose to
prepare the specialists on informational technologies in
society and for society.

22. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 It is not the secret that now a developing countries
have a lot of serious problems. Such problems are
connected to the historical non -development or to
the transformation from one state of country to
another (as in former USSR countries).
 At first glance the problems are evident:
economical, political, the human rights, ecological,
health care, poverty and many others.
 But deeper analysis follows to the conclusion that
common peculiarity of developing countries is
the shortage of democracy and civil society.
 The consequences are
 the lack of adequate to recent challenge
infrastructures,
 lack of power structures balances
 lack of public opinion accounting in the
government
 non-activity, non - sustainable development,
 lack of environment for enterprise development.

23. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 The most important consequences of such way of
development are some obsolete way of population
thinking (and mentality models of the world).
 Moreover the old internal structure of such
societies partially reproduces such obsolete
thinking in young generations.
 Namely such old mental structure and internal
structure of developing society are the sources of
failure of economical and political reforms in our
countries.
 Remark also that non - optimal top- level
management in such countries implicitly has also
background in the population consciousness.
 Of course the diversity of cultures in general sense
(by A.Toinby) leads also to diversity of domestic
conditions and historical ways of development.

24. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 Thus to improve society in developing
countries in is necessary
 1) to reconstruct the infrastructures in
society,
 2) to reconstruct the mentality of
population and leaders.
 In such situation the e-services may
be one of the key factors !!!.
 But their applications require special
investigation and design of
infrastructure.

25. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
Many tools exist for such goals:
 direct forcing for task 1,
 education of new generations for task 2,
 economical stimulation for both tasks,
 natural (isolated) evolution of country and many others
 in dependence on the scale of the problem considered.
 Also the target groups of transformation process may be
different from bottom to upper level.
 Remark that unfortunately frequently the international efforts
and projects for developing countries are directed to top levels
of governance without deep reconstruction of bottom levels,
infrastructure and mentality.
 Analysis of existing tools for transformations follows to the
conclusion that in the solutions of the country problems above
one of the most suitable tools in gaming and simulation (GS) on
the base of recent informational technologies and e-services.

26. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
 We should stressed that such problems are
new and needs new investigations by expert
community,
 but mathematical modeling is one of the (or
may be unique) tool for considering such
complex object, doing virtual experiments and
designing the transformation events.
 The multi- agent approach and author's
models are good technical tools for such
investigations.
 Of course it needs also special investigations
on necessary resources and financial base,
considering the different possible scenarios
which are intrinsic for large social systems,
risks evaluations and collaboration of
international and domestic specialists on IT,
GIS, GS , politics, scientists and
independent experts.

27. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
SOME APPLICATIONS
 COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING
 AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING
 FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF
HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY
 DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS
 MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET
PROCESSES
 SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN
LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS
 ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN
DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL
ANALOGIES.
 SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE
 SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS
 GIS

28. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
ILLUSTRATIONS
OF
DEVELOPMENTS
AND
SOFTWARE
POSSIBILITIES

29. General Fields of
Development
System Analysis and Prognosis for
Socio- Economical Systems
Medical
System Analysis
Engineering and
of Large Cities
socio- medical
Evolution
Geoinformatics
Information Separate Applied
Technologies for and Theoretical
Education Investigations

30. System Analysis and Prognosis of
Socio- Economical Systems
Demograp
Productivity Capital
hical
of Labor Store dynamics
Population Prognosis of
Salary on
Involvement Population
Labor Migration
in Labor

31. DEMOGRAPHYC
MIGRATION
MODELING WITH
GIS

32. CASE OF CAPITAL ATTRACTIVITY
1 1 1
↓ ↓ ↓
3 1 2 5 1 3 1
→ → → ← ← ↓
1 2 1 1 1 1 2
↑ ↑ ↑ ← ↓ ↓ ←
1 1 1 4 5 1
↑ → → → ←
1 1 1 2
↑ ← ↑ ↑
2 1
↑ ←
1
↑

33. System Analysis of Mega
-cities Development
System Current
Analysis of Administration
Sustainable Problems of
Development Kiev
of cities Development
Scenario analysis of harmful
firms removal from mega-
cities

34. Formation of cities, model of
isolation of harmful
manufactures for limits of city
Institute of Applied System
Analysis
Makarenko Alexander, Trofimenko
Alexander

37. Medical Engineering and Socio-
Medical Geoinformatics
Informational and Algorithms for
Prognosis Patient Medical
Support in Information
Epidemiology Processing
System Analysis of Pollutant Influence on
Population Health: Monitoring, Analysis,
Prognosis and Planning

38. MODELING
OF GLOBAL
GEOPOLI-
TICAL

39. he Characteristics Of States
he Characteristics Of States

40. 1994 Result
1994 Result

41. Virtual Result
Virtual Result
Greenland
Greenland
Iceland
Iceland Finland
Finland
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Canada
Canada Denmark
Denmark
Belarus
Belarus
Austria Ukraine
Austria Ukraine Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Mongolia
Andorra Albania
Andorra Albania Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
Azores (port.)
Azores (port.) Armenia
Armenia
United States
United States Gibraltar Malta Cyprus
Gibraltar Malta Cyprus China
China Japan
Japan
Bermuda Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Bermuda
Algeria
Algeria Nepal
Nepal
Egypt Bahrain
Egypt Bahrain
Mexico Bahamas
Mexico Bahamas Bangladesh Hong Kong
Bangladesh Hong Kong
Oman
Oman
Belize
Belize Anguilla
Anguilla Cape Verde Mali Niger Chad
Cape Verde Mali Niger Chad
Aruba (neth.)
Aruba Cambodia
Cambodia Guam
Guam
Djibouti
Djibouti
Guinea Benin
Guinea Benin Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Micronesia, Fed St
Micronesia, Fed St
Colombia Somalia
Somalia Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam
Colombia Maldives
Congo
Congo Maldives
Ecuador
Ecuador Burundi
Burundi Seychelles
Seychelles
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Peru
Brazil Angola
Angola Comoros
Comoros
Bolivia
Bolivia
Madagascar
Madagascar
Paraguay
Paraguay Botswana
Botswana
Australia
Lesotho
Lesotho
Argentina
Argentina
Falkland Islands
Falkland Islands

42. Example calculation of
the
car traffic in Darnitsa
district of the Kiev
city.

44. Traffic in center of City
Traffic from center of City

45. SIMULATION OF
TRAFFIC IN
CITIES AND
BUILDINGDS
Cellular automata and
Multi - agent systems

46. Example 2 of traffic
simulation
• The
case of
intensiv
e traffic
• Some
regions
with
concentr
ation of
element
s and
car jam

47. Building car route
with use of
geographic
information
systems
MapInfo и ISGEOMap

49. MULTIAGENT
MODELING AND
PROGNOZING OF
MARKET
PROCESSES

50. MARKET
OSCILLATION

51. Separate Applied
Investigations
Multi- Agents
Poly-
Space Plasma Models for
dispersed
Statistical Socio-
Fuels
Investigations Economical
Investigations
Systems
Virtual
Computer
Chemistry
Laboratory
System
Complexity Algorithms for Neuronet
Algorithms Neuro- signals Models and
and Processing Algorithms
Investigations

52. Future Prospect Fields of
Research and
Development
Scenarios
Application of Analysis and
Bioinformatics Multi- valued Risks in
Models Socio-
Technical
Systems
New Neuroinformati Consciousnes
Algorithms for cs and s
Pattern Neurophysiolo Investigations
Recognition gy and Modeling
Quantum
Control and Computing Strategic
Optimization and New Planning for
for Mobile Information Ukraine
Robots Processing
Algorithms

53. l e|GovDays, Prague, 19-20 April, 2006
Alexander Makarenko
Thanks
for
attention