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Wise computing 20150215 v5
1.
From Cognitive Computing To
Wise (or Wisdom) Computing: A Service Science Perspective Jim Spohrer, IBM AAAS Annual Meeting, San Jose, CA USA February 15, 2015 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 1
2.
Today’s Talk • Questions –
Smarter, yes; But wiser? – How can we be sure? • Progressions – Tool, assistant, collaborator, ? – ? = cognitive machine, moral entity • Occupations – Cognitive assistants for all occupations – Smart service systems – Everyone can afford an executive secretary and personal coach 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 2 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.
3.
Smarter, yes 2/16/2015 © IBM
2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 3 Ken Jennings jokingly wrote: “(I for one welcome our new computer overlords)”
4.
But wiser? 2/16/2015 © IBM
2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 4 “Wise leaders make decisions only after they figure out what is good for the organization and society.” “Practical wisdom is tacit knowledge acquired from experience that enables people to make prudent judgments and take actions based on the actual situation, guided by values and morals.”
5.
Iwano: Cyber +
Reality 1.0 = Reality 2.0 The emerging “cyber-coated reality” • Reality 1.0 Relationships • Reality 2.0 Relationships include Cyber-relationships: – “Cogs” for all roles • People-people • People-organizations • People-things • People-information – Cogs = cognitive assistant intermediary 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 5 Source: ResourcesForLife.com
6.
What is “cyber-coated
reality” like? • From Bacteria to “nervous-system- coated reality” • From Simple Machines to “cyber- coated reality” • Complex Adaptive Systems – Physical systems – Chemical systems – Biological systems – Social systems – Socio-technical systems – Physical symbol systems – Cognitive systems – Service systems • Capabilities & Constraints • Rights & Responsibilities – Smart service systems • AKA “cognitive service systems” – Wise service systems 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6 Source teachersparadise.com
7.
Progression • Tool • Assistant •
Collaborator • ? – Fear: “overlord” – Design goal: “moral entity” 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 7 Source Amazon.com First three items from a discussion with Paul Maglio (UCMerced) & Don Norman (UCSD)
8.
Brief History of AI 1956
– Dartmouth Conference 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation 1988 – Expert Systems Peak 1990 – AI Winter 1997 – Deep Blue 1997 – 2011 Real-World 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute 2014 – Watson Business Unit 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 8
9.
Vision: Augment &
Scale Expertise 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9
10.
Cognitive Assistants -
Occupations 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
11.
Biochemist/Biochemical Engineer 2/16/2015 © IBM
2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11
12.
Occupations = Many
Tasks 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12
13.
Watson Discovery Advisor 2/16/2015 ©
IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
14.
User Models 2/16/2015 © IBM
2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 14
15.
New Era of
Computing: Cognitive Technologies & Componentry 15 Natural Language – Reasoning, Logic & Planning – Symbolic Processing – Natural Language Processing – Ranking of Hypotheses – Knowledge Representations – Domain-Specific Ontologies – Information Storage/Retrieval – Machine Learning, Reasoning – Von Neumann Componentry – OpenPOWER Systems Pattern Recognition – Recognition, Sensing & Acting – Pattern Processing – Image & Speech Processing – Ranking of Hypotheses – Pattern Representations – Domain-Specific Neural Nets – Information Storage/Retrieval – Machine Learning, Perception – Neuromorphic Componentry – TrueNorth & Corelets Systems AI for IA: Intelligence Augmentation Cognitive Systems (“Cogs”) that boost learning, discovery, engagement, transformation, and long-range planning. Cognition as a Service 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 15
16.
Watson Platform on
BlueMix 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 16
17.
CSIG: Cognitive Systems
Institute Group LinkedIn discussion Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452 Web site for resource sharing cognitive-science.info Bluemix ibm.biz/HackBluemix ibm.biz/LearnBluemix $0.07 per GB-Hour (*) 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 17 * = check online for current pricing info
18.
Smarter Service Systems
Workshop 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 18
19.
National Science Foundation A
feature of a service system is the participation and cooperation of the customer in the service and its delivery. A service system then requires an integration of knowledge and technologies from a range of disciplines, often including engineering, computer science, social science, behavioral science, and cognitive science, paired with market knowledge to increase its social benefit. Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 19
20.
Future Research Directions •
“The CSIG Algorithm” • Cognitive Assistants for Policy Maker – “Debater” is coming – Objective functions for other entities • Wise/Wisdom Computing Needs: – Literature review – Roadmap of steps 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 20 Source http://www.linkedin/group/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452
21.
Literature Review 2/16/2015 © IBM
2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 21
22.
Related Work: Steve
Omohundro 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 22 Source http://www.parc.com/event/2127/ai-and-robotics-at-an-inflection-point.html
23.
Join ISSIP.org Professional Development
for Smart Service System Innovators • 2015 Conferences – HICSS, Honolulu, HI, Jan 5-8 – T Summit, E Lansing, MI, Mar 16-17 – ICSERV,San Jose, CA July 6-8 – Frontiers, San Jose, CA July 9-12 – AHFE HSSE,Las Vegas, NV July 23-27 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 23
24.
2/16/2015 © IBM 2015,
IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 24
25.
2/16/2015 © IBM 2015,
IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe Acquisitions contribute significantly to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in last decade Number 1 in patent generation for more than two decades More than 40% of IBMs workforce does business away from an office 5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation – latest for LASIK laser refractive surgical techniques The Smartest Machine On Earth 100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011 New Era in IBM’s Leadership IBM Growth Initiatives IBM has ~400,000 employees worldwide
26.
Jim Spohrer, IBM •
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is Director IBM Global University Programs and leads IBM’s Cognitive Systems Institute. The Cognitive Systems Institute works to align cognitive systems researchers in academics, government, and industry globally to improve productivity and creativity of problem-solving professionals, transforming learning, discovery, and sustainable development. IBM University Programs works to align IBM and universities globally for innovation amplification and T-shaped skills. Jim co-founded IBM’s first Service Research group, ISSIP Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. He was awarded Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technology title for his work on next generation learning platforms. Jim has a Yale PhD in Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence and MIT BS in Physics. His research priorities include service science, cognitive systems for smart holistic service systems, especially universities and cities. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he is also a PICMET Fellow and a winner of the S-D Logic award. 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26
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Professional Roles • Director
Global University Programs and Cognitive Systems Institute (2014 - ) – http://cognitive-science.info – Cognitive Assistants for all occupations in smart service systems • Director IBM Global University Programs (2009 – 2014) – http://www.ibm.com/university – 6 R’s - research, readiness, recruiting, revenue, responsibility, regions) – Universities as “smarter service systems” and startup engines of their regions • Founding Director of IBM’s first Service Research group (2003 - 2009) – http://www.service-science.info – Service Science (short for Service Science Management Engineering Design Arts Public Policy) – http://www.issip.org – International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP) • Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group (1999-2002) • Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s) • Student: Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s) • Researcher: Dialogue Systems/VERBEX – Speech Recognition Startup (1978-1982) • Student: B.S. in Physics from MIT (1974-1978) 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 27
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28 Measuring Impact (2003-2009) •
SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment – Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR • Key was tools to model customers & IBM better • Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures • Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent) • Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems) – External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities – External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications – External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations – External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions – External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation) – External: International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP) • Service Research, a Portfolio Approach – 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s) – 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers) – 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion) – 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up) – 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums) – 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations) 2/16/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development
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2/16/2015 © IBM 2015,
IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 29
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