1. Software Convergence
Dr. James C. (“Jim”) Spohrer
IBM Innovation Champion & Director, IBM Global University Programs
KTECH, Santa Clara, CA, USA, Nov. 14, 2013
3. Software Convergence
• “Variations of Moore’s Law have been applied to improvement over
time in disk drive capacity, display resolution, network bandwidth
and, most recently, energy consumption.9 In these and many other
cases of digital improvement, doubling happens both quickly and
reliably.”
• “It also seems that software can progress at least as fast as
hardware does, at least in some domains. Computer scientist
Martin Grötschel analyzed the speed with which a standard
optimization problem could be solved by computers during 19882003. He documented a 43-million-fold improvement, which he
broke down into two factors: faster processors and better
algorithms embedded in software. Processor speeds improved by a
factor of 1,000, but those gains were dwarfed by the algorithms,
which got 43,000 times better over the same period.10”
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2012). Winning the Race With Ever-Smarter Machines.
MIT Sloan Management Review, 53(2), 53.
5. Next Generation:
T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators
Many disciplines
Many sectors
Many regions/cultures
(understanding & communications)
Deep in one region/culture
Deep in one sector
Deep in one discipline
6. National Science Foundation
A feature of a service system is the
participation and cooperation of the customer
in the service and its delivery. A service system
then requires an integration of knowledge and
technologies from a range of disciplines, often
including engineering, computer science, social
science, behavioral science, and cognitive
science, paired with market knowledge to
increase its social benefit.
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
7. Welcome to the new age of
platform technologies and
smarter service systems
for every sector of
business and society
nested, networks systems
15. Example: Leading Through Connections with…
Universities Collaborate with IBM Research to Design Watson
for the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy !
Assisted in the development of the Open
Advancement of Question-Answering Initiative
(OAQA) architecture and methodology
Provided technological advancement enabling a
computing system to remember the full
interaction, rather than treating every question like
the first one - simulating a real dialogue
Explored advanced machine learning
techniques along with rich text
representations based on syntactic and
semantic structures for the Watson’s
optimization
Pioneered an online natural language question
answering system called START, which provided the
ability to answer questions with high precision using
information from semi-structured and structured
information repositories
Worked on a visualization component to visually
explain to external audiences the massively parallel
analytics skills it takes for the Watson computing
system to break down a question and formulate a
rapid and accurate response to rival a human brain
Focused on large-scale
Worked on information retrieval information
and text search technologies
extraction, parsing, and
knowledge inference
technologies
http://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2011/02/chq_watson_wrapup.html
15
15
Worked to extend the
capabilities of Watson, with a
focus on extensive common sense
knowledge
22. Competitive Parity – Achieved.
• The NFL touts parity—the idea
that any team can win on any
given Sunday. But this year,
parity has truly run wild.
• Through six weeks, 11 of the
NFL's 32 teams are 3-3.
• The Journal asked the statistical
gurus of Massey-Peabody
Analytics to run a coin-flip
simulation…
22
29. Why ISSIP? T-shapes for
Teamwork
BREADTH
DEPTH
• Our world is becoming more
interconnected and complex
• Yet most organizations
operate is silos
• Most professional
organizations do a great job
of focusing on one
discipline, function, or
industry sector
ISSIP is a professional society designed
to focus on the interconnected nature
of value co-creation for smart service
systems (tech, biz, social, etc.)
T-Shape
professionals can
innovate across
traditional
boundaries
30. ISSIP Ambassadors
•
More than 15 Ambassadors
and growing…
•
Link ISSIP to other
professional
associations, research
centers, conferences, etc.
•
Help ISSIP co-sponsor
activities in other conferences
more...
http://www.issip.org/learningcenter/valuen
twork/
31. Service Systems Fundamental Abstraction of Service Science:
ISSIP portal to Disciplines (23), Professional Associations (39), Journals (20), Conferences (31), Workshops (7)
Discipline
Association
Marketing
AMA
Operations Research
INFORMS
Information
Systems
AIS
Computer Science
and Engineering
ACM, IEEE
Human Factors
AHFE
Operations
Management
POMS
Systems Science
ISSS
Design
SDN
Systems Engineering
IIE
…
…
Serviceology
SfS
(SSME+DAPP)
ISSIP
IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress
32. The Well-Read Service Scientist
(The top 300 papers – together over 100,000 citations)
• http://service-science.info/archives/2708
33. Service-Dominant Logic
Prof. Stephen VARGO
Prof. Robert LUSCH
Vargo, S. L., & Lusch, R. F. (2004). Evolving to a
new dominant logic for marketing. Journal of
marketing, 1-17. (Oct. 2013, ~4500 citations)
Claude Frédéric Bastiat
David Ricardo
Colin Clark
Richard Normann
John Riordan
34. Service Thinking
Saperstein & Hastings: Book, Course, ISSIP Certificate
All value is co-created
Service systems we live and work in
Componentized business architecture
Global-mobile-social scalable platforms
Run-Transform-Innovate
Multi-sided metrics
CVC Group, LLC
34
36. “Order of Magnitude” Observation:
Modeling Holistic Service Systems
Level
AKA
~No. People
~No. Entities
Example
0. Individual
Person
1
10,000,000,000
Jim
1. Family
Household
10
1,000,000,000
Spohrer’s
2.Neighborhood
Street
100
100,000,000
Kensington
3. Community
Block
1000
10,000,000
Bird Land
4. Urban-Zone
District
10,000
1,000,000
SC Unified
5. Urban-Center
City
100,0000
100,000
Santa Clara
6.Metro-Region
County
1,000,000
10,000
SC County
7. State
Province
10,000,000
1,000
CA
8. Nation
Country
100,000,000
100
USA
9. Continent
Union
1,000,000,000
10
NAFTA
10. Planet
World
10,000,000,000
1
UN
36
39. Smarter Planet = Smarter Systems
INSTRUMENTED
INTERCONNECTED
INTELLIGENT
We now have the ability to
measure, sense and see
the exact condition of
practically everything.
People, systems and objects
can communicate and
interact with each other in
entirely new ways.
We can respond to changes
quickly and accurately,
and get better results
by predicting and optimizing
for future events.
IT NETWORKS
PRODUCTS
WORKFORCE
39
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORTATION
BUILDINGS
48.
Exclusive Networking and
Mentoring event
Identifies entrepreneurs developing
businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet
vision.
SmartCamp finalists raised more than
$50m and received significant press in
Wall Street Journal, Forbes and
Bloomberg
in
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012
Apply by April 27th
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012
Apply by May 3rd
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012
Apply by May 25th
apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp
48
48
North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, eapse@us.ibm.com
University Programs lead: Dawn Tew, dawn2@us.ibm.com
Hinweis der Redaktion
Service ThinkingValue co-creation and capability co-elevationDigital Design ThinkingMore capabilities exist in software formCompliance capabilities as wellSystems ThinkingBalancing productivity & qualityBalancing compliance & innovation
Individuals with smartphonesDrivers in driveless carsHome owners in smart rooms in their smart housesOccupants of smart buildings, sometimes 30 story smart buildings built in just 15 daysPatients, doctors, and nurses in smart hospitals and operating roomsTechnicians monitoring multiples aspects of from a smarter city intelligent operations centersSmall retail businesses taking credit card purchses on their smart phones
Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems…Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jspAnalysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM AlmadenDynamicgraphybased on Swissstudents work:http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.htmlUS isstill “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in lessthan 10 years: US % of WW Top-RankedUniversities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 %CorrelatingNation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked UniversitiesUS isliterally “off the chart” – butincluding US make high correlationevenhigher: US % of WW Top-RankedUniversities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htmhttp://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-collegePosted below are 21 statistics about college tuition, student loan debt and the quality of college education in the United States....#1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent.#2 In 2010, the average college graduate had accumulated approximately $25,000 in student loan debt by graduation day.#3 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loans.#4 Americans have accumulated well over $900 billion in student loan debt. That figure is higher than the total amount of credit card debt in the United States.#5 The typical U.S. college student spends less than 30 hours a week on academics.#6 According to very extensive research detailed in a new book entitled "Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses", 45 percent of U.S. college students exhibit "no significant gains in learning" after two years in college.#7 Today, college students spend approximately 50% less time studying than U.S. college students did just a few decades ago.#835% of U.S. college students spend 5 hours or less studying per week.#950% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to write more than 20 pages.#1032% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to read more than 40 pages in a week.#11 U.S. college students spend 24% of their time sleeping, 51% of their time socializing and 7% of their time studying.#12 Federal statistics reveal that only 36 percent of the full-time students who began college in 2001 received a bachelor's degree within four years.#13Nearly half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners.#14 According to the Economic Policy Institute, the unemployment rate for college graduates younger than 25 years old was 9.3 percent in 2010.#15One-third of all college graduates end up taking jobs that don't even require college degrees.#16 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.#17 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.#18 In the United States today, approximately 365,000 cashiers have college degrees.#19 In the United States today, 24.5 percent of all retail salespersons have a college degree.#20 Once they get out into the "real world", 70% of college graduates wish that they had spent more time preparing for the "real world" while they were still in school.#21Approximately 14 percent of all students that graduate with student loan debt end up defaulting within 3 years of making their first student loan payment.http://www.citytowninfo.com/career-and-education-news/articles/georgetown-university-study-shows-a-bachelors-degree-in-stem-pays-off-11102002About 65 percent of individuals with bachelor's degrees in STEM subjects commanded greater salaries than those with master's degrees in non-STEM fields, according to a Georgetown press release. Likewise, 47 percent of college graduates with bachelor's degrees in STEM fields earn higher wages than those with doctoral degrees in non-STEM subjects.
Edu-Impact.Com: Growing Importance of Universities with Large, Growing EndowmentsRecently visited Yang building at StanfordOne of the greenest buildings on the planetBut if it does not evolve in 20 years it will not be the greenest buildingVisited supercomputers – we have two at IBM Almaden – there was a time they were in the top 100 supercomputers in the world – not any more ….So a Moore’s law of buildings is more than cutting waste in half every year, it is also about the amount of time it takes to structural replace the material with newer and more modern materials that provide benefits…
There is a conference nearly every week, and approx. ten publication every day…Service Science Knowledge Environmenthttp://sske.cloud.upb.ro/sskemw/index.php/Main_Page
Bastiat: Economic HarmoniesRicardo: Principles of Political Economy and TaxationClark: Conditions of Economic ProgressRiordan: Stochastic Service Systems
Multilevel nested, networked holistic service systems (HSS) that provision whole service (WS) to the people inside them. WS includes flows (transportation, water, food, energy, communications), development (buildings, retail, finance, health, education), and governance (city, state, nation). What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems?Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance.=============\Nations (~100)States/Provinces (~1000)Cities/Regions (~10,000)Educational Institutions (~100,000)Healthcare Institutions (~100,000)Other Enterprises (~10,000,000)Largest 2000>50% GDP WWFamilies/Households (~1B)Persons (~10B)Balance/ImproveQuality of Life, generation after generationGDP/CapitaQuality of ServiceCustomer ExperienceQuality of JobsEmployee ExperienceQuality of Investment-OpportunitiesOwner ExperienceEntrepreneurial ExperienceSustainabilityGDP/Energy-Unit% Fossil% RenewableGDP/Mass-Unit% New Inputs% Recycled Inputs