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T knowing for organisational resilience
      acit




... or, if you don't understand why you can never



                   1.4kg of jelly like fats & tissues

 •   We always know more than we can say and we will
     always say more than we can write down


 •   Humans have evolved to sense patterns based on (very)
     partial data scans (but it's not mental models)


 •   Autonomic and novelty receptive (system 1 and system 2
     in Thinking, fast and slow)


 •   98% of our genetic history is as Pliocene hunter gathers;
     social computing works because it in part mimics that
     ecology


 •   It's not it's just about the brain, so forget "The
     Singularity" and think embodied and extended


 •   Human knowledge requires mediation through trusted
     networks or institutions - think apps not Web 3.0

                                                                 All cartoons courtesy of gaping void
Intrinsic and extrinsic reward
                            “Economists and workplace consultants regard it
                            as almost unquestioned dogma that people are
                            motivated by rewards, so they don’t feel the need
                            to test this. It has the status more of religious
                            truth than scientific hypothesis.”

                            “The facts are absolutely clear.
                            There is no question that in virtually all
                            circumstances in which people are doing things in
                            order to get rewards, extrinsic tangible rewards
                            undermine intrinsic motivation”

                                      New Scientist 9th April 2011 pp 40-43


Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.




                             A new context: from robustness to resilience

                                      Gaussian                                                                                        Pareto
                                                                                                                  10⁵

                                                                                                                  10⁴
                                                                                        N(M=m(earthquakes/year)
  Probability of outcome




                                                                                                                  10⇤

                                                                                                                  10⇥

                                                                                                                  10

                                                                                                                  10⁰
                                                                                                                  10-
                                                        Low Probability                                           10-⇥
                                                        High impact events

                           Range of possible outcomes                                                                    0   1    2 3 4 5 6 7                           8
                                                                              early detection                                    Magnitude m=log₁₀(S)
                                                                              fast recovery
                                                                             early exploitation                                        Derived from material created by Max Boisot
Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                    Academy of Management Montreal 2010
Research & monitoring
             From prediction ...                                  Pareto world

                                                  Hypothesis/
                                                    inductive
                                                                       Non-hypothesis/
               Log of event frequency




                                                                              abductive
                                         Gaussian
                                          world


                                        Probable
                                                 Possible
                                                                                          ... to triggering
                                                               Plausible                  anticipatory
                                                          Log of event size               awareness

                                                                                          Derived from material created by Max Boisot
Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.                                       Academy of Management Montreal 2010




                                                        ...think anew, act anew
       •        In a complex adaptive system, constraints and agents co-evolve
                so we are dealing with systems that are dispositional but not
                causal


       •        Shift from closing the gap to an idealised future to managing. The
                evolutionary potentially the present


       •        Valuable knowledge is social in nature, collective use can be
                ritualised in crews (replace teams) and other organisational
                forms (but you need hierarchies)


       •        Exaptation is more important than adaptation and design;
                managing for exaption requires messy coherence


       •        Proactive: stimulator create networks with purpose, it's not
                about anarchy


       •        Human sensor networks, distributed cognition not crowd
                sourcing) within constraints ...




Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
Homo narrans

•     Using the micro-narratives of day to day conversation
      that provide the patterns of meaning and culture


•     Self-signification for volume, objectivity, empowerment
      and contiuous monitoring


•     Distributed enthnography, not field anthropology or
      story telling


•     Peer to peer knowledge flow and learning


•     Research capture creates a knowledge database and
      enables monitoring, weak signal detection and fast
      response.


•     .. And it also enables exaptative innovation,market
      discovery etc.




Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
                                                                 www.cogntiive-edge.com

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Dave Snowden

  • 1. T knowing for organisational resilience acit ... or, if you don't understand why you can never 1.4kg of jelly like fats & tissues • We always know more than we can say and we will always say more than we can write down • Humans have evolved to sense patterns based on (very) partial data scans (but it's not mental models) • Autonomic and novelty receptive (system 1 and system 2 in Thinking, fast and slow) • 98% of our genetic history is as Pliocene hunter gathers; social computing works because it in part mimics that ecology • It's not it's just about the brain, so forget "The Singularity" and think embodied and extended • Human knowledge requires mediation through trusted networks or institutions - think apps not Web 3.0 All cartoons courtesy of gaping void
  • 2. Intrinsic and extrinsic reward “Economists and workplace consultants regard it as almost unquestioned dogma that people are motivated by rewards, so they don’t feel the need to test this. It has the status more of religious truth than scientific hypothesis.” “The facts are absolutely clear. There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, extrinsic tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivation” New Scientist 9th April 2011 pp 40-43 Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. A new context: from robustness to resilience Gaussian Pareto 10⁵ 10⁴ N(M=m(earthquakes/year) Probability of outcome 10⇤ 10⇥ 10 10⁰ 10- Low Probability 10-⇥ High impact events Range of possible outcomes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 early detection Magnitude m=log₁₀(S) fast recovery early exploitation Derived from material created by Max Boisot Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. Academy of Management Montreal 2010
  • 3. Research & monitoring From prediction ... Pareto world Hypothesis/ inductive Non-hypothesis/ Log of event frequency abductive Gaussian world Probable Possible ... to triggering Plausible anticipatory Log of event size awareness Derived from material created by Max Boisot Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. Academy of Management Montreal 2010 ...think anew, act anew • In a complex adaptive system, constraints and agents co-evolve so we are dealing with systems that are dispositional but not causal • Shift from closing the gap to an idealised future to managing. The evolutionary potentially the present • Valuable knowledge is social in nature, collective use can be ritualised in crews (replace teams) and other organisational forms (but you need hierarchies) • Exaptation is more important than adaptation and design; managing for exaption requires messy coherence • Proactive: stimulator create networks with purpose, it's not about anarchy • Human sensor networks, distributed cognition not crowd sourcing) within constraints ... Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
  • 4.
  • 5. Homo narrans • Using the micro-narratives of day to day conversation that provide the patterns of meaning and culture • Self-signification for volume, objectivity, empowerment and contiuous monitoring • Distributed enthnography, not field anthropology or story telling • Peer to peer knowledge flow and learning • Research capture creates a knowledge database and enables monitoring, weak signal detection and fast response. • .. And it also enables exaptative innovation,market discovery etc. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. www.cogntiive-edge.com