1. Laura Gallardo
laura@dgf.uchile.cl
Climate and health in Chile:
what to explore?

2. Contents
• Observed changes in Chile; Projections and uncertainties
(R. Garreaud)
• Health and climate as seen globally
• What would I/we suggest?
– Focus on SLCFs, urbanization and aging
population
– Improve statistics and
observations/measurements…using remote
sensing?
• Two invitations
– CR2 launching!
– Natal, Brazil, 2014
CR2-Health Hub 2

3. CR2-Health Hub 3
• Changing patterns of
disease
• Extreme climatic
events, and population
growth and migration.
• Vector-borne diseases will
expand their reach and
death tolls, especially
among elderly people, will
increase because of
heatwaves
• The indirect effects of
climate change on
water, food security, and
extreme climatic events
are likely to have the
biggest effect on global
health.
“Climate change has been responsible for
5·5 million disability adjusted life years
(DALYs) lost in 2000”
«Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century»
Costello et al, 2009

4. «Air pollution from above»
CR2-Health Hub 4
NASA's Earth Observatory describes: "Dark brown areas have more premature
deaths than light brown areas. Blue areas have experienced an improvement in
air quality relative to 1850 and a decline in premature deaths."
Not that easy for Chile!
Escribano et al, 2013

5. Variability, projections and uncertainty for Chile
CR2-Health Hub 5
IPCC, 2013
…i.e., Central Chile…drier and
warmer…particularly, warming land and
cooling ocean
More variability and extremes? How will
regional climate change over decadal
time scales?
M. Rojas (MAPS), 2013

6. «Boundary conditions/drivers» in a changing climate
CR2-Health Hub 6
Chile is a highly
urbanized
country, with
increasing wealth
and improved HDI
but extremely
segregated
Molina et al, 2007
UN, 2012
Human Development Index
(PNUD, 2011)
Income distribution
(CASEN, 2006)

7. CO/NOx molar ratio
Gallardo et al, 2011 (AE)
Socio-economic gradients… different emissions, different
exposures …
Air pollution occurs under a
changing climate, and its
impacts are amplified by inequity
(WHO, 2005)

8. Altogether now
CR2-Health Hub 8
FOCUS ON SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE
FORCERS (SLCFs)…
Black
carbon, ozone, methane…, which in
addition to radiative forcers, are air
pollutants and pollutant precursors
T. C. Bond, 2013

9. My summary for Chile
• We have a society of aging individuals, living in growing cities, exposed to
multiple «health stressors».
• Health stressors are amplified by inequity and likely by «climate change»
and natural variability
• We still see/handle air pollution and climate change as separated
issues…they are not!
• We need an improved understanding of health stressors, and of air
pollution in a changing climate…
– Mass concentrations of pollutants vs. standard health statistics require
improvements and ancilliary process-oriented measurements (super sites,
validated remote sensing, etc.)
– Air quality standards provide a framework but they are useless without
following emission standards, and improved observations and adequate
enforcement
• We need more people addressing these issued under integrative
paradigms…go for win-win, focus on SLCFs
CR2-Health Hub 9

10. Invitations
CR2-Health Hub 10

11. Centro de Ciencia del Clima
y la Resiliencia
CONICYT/FONDAP/15110009
¡Gracias!
laura@dgf.uchile.cl
http://www.cr2.cl/
CR2-Health Hub 11

12. References
• Costello, M. Abbas, A. Allen et al.Managing the health effects of climate change. Lancet, 373
(2009), pp. 1693–1733
• Escribano, J., Gallardo, L., Rondanelli, R. and Choi, Y-S. Satellite retrievals of aerosol optical
depth over a subtropical urban area: the role of stratification and surface reflectance. Submitted to
Aerosol and Air Quality Research.
• Gallardo, L., Escribano, J., Dawidowski, L., Rojas, N. J., Andrade, M. F, and Osses, M., 2011.
Evaluation of vehicle emission inventories for carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides for
Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Santiago, and São Paulo. Atmospheric Environment 47, 12-19.
• Shindell, D., J. C. I. Kuylenstierna, E. Vignati, R. van Dingenen, M. Amann, Z. Klimont, S. C.
Anenberg, N. Muller, G. Janssens, Maenhout, F. Raes, J. Schwartz, G. Faluvegi, L. Pozzoli, K.
Kupiainen, L. Höglund-Isaksson, L. Emberson, D. Streets, V. Ramanathan,K. Hicks, N. T. K.
Oanh, G. Milly, M. Williams, V. Demkine, and D. Fowler (2012), Simultaneously mitigating near-
term climate change and improving human health and food security, Science, 335 (6065), 183-
189, doi: 10.1126/science.1210026.
• Zhu, T., Parrish, D., Gauss, M., Doherty, S., Lawrence, M., Gallardo, L., Kanakidou, M., Konare
and Cathy Liuosse. The Impacts of Megacities on Air Quality and Climate Change: An IGAC
Perspective. IGAC/WMO book/report. 205 WMO/IGAC, ISBN: 978-0-9882867-0-2, 309 pp.
September 2012
CR2-Health Hub 12