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TOP 10 Learning Concepts

Ch 4: Conducting Marketing Research And
          Forecasting Demand


              Mirasol Capala
             September 2011




       http://solcapala.blogspot.com/
Concept Outline

1. Effective Marketing Research System for Large and Small companies
2. Effective Marketing Research Follows the 6 Marketing Research Steps
3. Choosing the Research Approaches for your Marketing Research

4. Different Types of Research Instruments
5. Sampling Plan
6. Contact Methods

7. Forecasting and Demand Measurement- Why Study Demand?
8. Types of Market Demands
9. Company Demand
10. Estimating Current and Future Demand



  9/8/2011          http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                       2
Effective Marketing Research System for
          Large Companies

   Custom marketing                  Syndicated-service           Specialty-line marketing
     research firm                     research firm                   research firm


         Firms that gather consumer and trade information, which they sell for a fee.




 Zpryme, a leading global research
  firm, today announced its latest
      market research practice
   launch, China Insights, service
focused on the China consumer and
       business marketplace.

       9/8/2011               http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                                 3
Example of Marketing Research for Large Companies

                                                     Syndicated Research


•Streaming video is an                                  97% of smart phones
indication of the future                                 should come touch
of consumer                                               screens by 2016
entertainment

•Research used by
Microsoft (MSFT)
and Sony(SNE)- reason
why they focus on the
game console.


       9/8/2011            http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                     4
Effective Marketing Research System for
  Small Companies

  Crowdcasting           Using the Internet            Checking out rivals

             Research conducted in creative and affordable ways.




9/8/2011         http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                              5
Example of Marketing Research for Small Companies
              Using the Internet


•Small companies use Twitter to
create niche markets
•Twitter is a great place to look at
what people are discussing,
buying, suggesting and current             Use the Top
overall trends.                              50 of All
                                               Time,
                                            Tweetstats
                                               to see
                                               fresh,
                                           relevant and
                                              current
                                            trends for
                                                free.

       9/8/2011           http://solcapala.blogspot.com/     6
Effective Marketing Research Follows the 6 Marketing
  Research Steps




                     •Firms should set specific research objectives.

                     •Firms must decide whether to collect their own
                     data or use data that already exist.

                     •They must also decide which research approach,
                     which research instruments to use.

                     •They must decide on a sampling plan and
                     contact methods.


9/8/2011     http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                            7
Example of Company following the 6 Steps of Marketing
  Research Process
                                    Step 1: P&G wanted to enter the Chinese market with a sound
                                       strategy after Chinese experts warned the company that
                                            nobody in China could afford Head & Shoulders.




               Step 2: P&G developed a             Step 5: The company's market research
              research plan to know the            revealed that though there were several
               common problem among               shampoo marketers in China, there was no
                 Chinese consumers.               shampoo that could remove dandruff from
                                                    the scalp. Dandruff was a common hair
                                                   problem among the Chinese consumers.
                 Step 3: P&G collected
              information through online
           research, surveys and telephone
                                                 Step 6: P&G hence launched Head &
                      interviews.
                                                  Shoulders, a brand that was known
                                                    for its anti-dandruff properties.
            Step 4: They have analyze the          Within three years of its launch,
             information and did several          Head & Shoulders became China's
            analysis to test the strength of     bestselling shampoo, even though it
                   the conclusions.               was priced three times higher than
                                                             the local brands.



9/8/2011           http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                                                 8
Choosing the Research Approaches for your Marketing
  Research




  Observation             Behavioural Data       Experiments

                   Focus Group Discussion            Surveys




9/8/2011        http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                 9
Example of Use of Different Marketing Research
  Approaches

             Focus Group Discussion                         Surveys

            Findings: Dinner party guests        Survey Reveals: Online
               were bringing their host         Coupon Sites Remain Top
           flowers instead of chocolate, in    Consumer Choice for Deals
           a nod to current concerns over
                                                 68 % of daily deal users
                  obesity & health.           reported using daily deal sites
                                                  for impulse rather than
                                                    planned purchases.




9/8/2011      http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                            10
Different Types of Research Instruments

                                Qualitative Research




      Questionnaire




Technological Devices

     9/8/2011           http://solcapala.blogspot.com/   11
Example of Use of Different Research Instruments
                              •Mapping Bush and Kerry to well-known product and
 Qualitative Research         corporate brands reveals how each candidate is viewed
                              and suggests brand strategies each can employ to
                              potentially sway the critical undecided voter group.


                              •Bush is associated with the positive attributes of
                              established mainstay brands like Bud Light, IBM and
                              Ford ("reliable", "humble", "heritage", "solid"); Kerry is
                              associated with the positive attributes of premium
                              brands like Heineken, Apple, and BMW ("high-quality",
                              "high-performance", "hip", "young")


                              •To win undecided voters, Kerry must prove that he has
                              substance, that he's not all flash and marketing. Bush,
                              on the other hand, must focus on emphasizing that his
                              strengths – stability and reliability – are more important
                              than being ultra-modern or progressive



9/8/2011         http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                                    12
Sampling Plan
                                              Sampling Size
                                     How many people should we survey?
    Sampling Unit
Who should we survey?




                                                Sampling Procedure
                                              How should we choose the
                                                   respondents?

   9/8/2011         http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                 13
Example of Sampling Plan

    When times are tough, Pinoys commute

Sampling Unit: The survey focused on the travel
habits of commuters on the Metro Rail Transit (MRT)
and Light Rail Transit (LRT) systems.                            What this
                                                                   means
Sample Size: Nielsen conducted interviews with 500            for advertisers?
MRT3 passengers, 250 LRT1 passengers and 250 LRT2
passengers in February 2009.

Sample Procedure: The survey used random                    With Nielsen's survey
sampling methods and has a 5 percent margin of error.        findings proving that
                                                        consumers spend more time
                                                         outside the home, it is a go
                                                        signal for more advertisers to
                                                           invest in "out-of-home"
                                                                advertisements.

      9/8/2011            http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                          14
Contact Methods
    Mail Questionnaire                             Personal Interview




                         Telephone Interview




                                       Online Interview


9/8/2011          http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                        15
Example of Contact Methods in Conducting Marketing
         Research
                             Personal Interview




Ground coffee review
CHOICE’s expert tasters find some of the
best brews at very affordable prices.

Tester brews each coffee in the same way using
a Breville ESP8B Café Roma espresso machine.
Three experts rate the coffees, giving them
scores for the colour and thickness of the crema,
aroma, flavour, mouthfeel and aftertaste.

      9/8/2011             http://solcapala.blogspot.com/   16
Forecasting and Demand Measurement
         Why Study Demand?




 FINANCE         OPERATIONS      PURCHASING          HR        MARKETING
The cash that To establish       To get the     To get the     To prepare
is required for capacity and     right amount   right number   sales forecasts
operations      output levels    of supplies    of workers
and
investments




      9/8/2011           http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                   17
Example of Wrong Sales Forecast
                        Xerox commissioned three independent
                        consultants to explore the opportunity for a
                        copier. Two consultants advised against
                        the launch and the third consultant
                        forecast sales of 8,000 units over 6 years.

                        Xerox chose to ignore the
                        recommendations of the consultants,
                        launched the copier and installed 80,000
                        machines within just 3 years.

                        The market research had underestimated
                        demand as respondents were unable to
                        provide their views on a new product that
                        they had never experienced.

9/8/2011     http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                        18
Types of Market Demands


Potential                       Available                       Penetrated
 Market                          Market          Target           Market
                                                 Market




                           Consumers have
    Consumers have         interest, income
                                               Qualified
   income, access to         and access to                 Sets of customers
                                               available
        product                 product                     who are buying
                                              market the
                                              company         company’s
                                              decides to        products
                                                pursue



9/8/2011               http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                     19
Example of Market Research for Different Market
      Demands
          Potential Market




A researcher at 3M was eager to create the world's best glue, but actually
ended up creating one of the worst glues ever – one that didn't stick – which
nevertheless ended up as one of 3M's most successful products: that of the
ubiquitous Post-it notes.



    9/8/2011         http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                       20
Company Demand
It is the company’s estimated share of market demand at alternative
       levels of company marketing effort at a given time period.

                Sales Forecast
                      Is the expected level of company sales based on a
                      chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing
                                         environment.

                Sales Potential

                     Is the sales limit approached by company demand as
                      company marketing effort increases relative to that
                                          of competitors.



9/8/2011       http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                       21
Example of Sales Forecast
                       Christmas Sales Forecast Gets More Grim
                        Buyers expected to stay frugal through
                                   holiday season

                     Of those consumers                 Only 35.6
                    who normally give gift          percent said they
                     cards but won't this            would give gifts
                    year, 64.4 % will give               instead,
                       money instead
                                                   Of those consumers
                Seventy percent of consumers       who will give fewer
                said that they stayed within         gift cards, over a
                their budgets, an indicator of     third say that there
                this year's disciplined shopper.     is a chance they
                                                    could give nothing
                                                            at all.
9/8/2011     http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                         22
Example of Sales Potential

Retail sales rise 3.6% during holidays       Romance novels embrace
                                             Christmas spirit and sales
                                                    potential




     9/8/2011         http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                 23
Estimating Current Demand
              Practical methods for estimating current market demand




      Total Market Potential                             Area Market Potential
 Maximum amount of sales that might be              Maximum amount of sales that might be
available to all firms in an industry during a   available in different cities, states, and nations.
                period of time.



     9/8/2011                 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                                      24
Example of Estimating Current Demand

                         Baby Car Seat Manufacturer

                Understand the total market potential
                of infant car seats in both units and Pesos.

               If two million babies are expected in a year, the
               market for infant seats is 2m units.


 However some of the households may be two car
households and decide to buy two seats. If 50% of
 the households buy two seats, then the market is
                 really 3m units.


    9/8/2011            http://solcapala.blogspot.com/             25
Estimating Future Demand
      All forecasts are built on one of 3 information bases: what people say, what people do,
            or what people have done. Good forecasting is a key factor in success of the
                                              companies.




  Survey of Buyer’s               Past- Sales Analysis               Expert Opinion
      Intention                     Firms can develop sales         Obtain forecasts from
Useful in estimating demand      forecasts on the basis of past   experts, including dealers,
  for industrial products,                   sales.                 distributors, suppliers,
consumer durables and new                                         marketing consultants, and
          products.                                                   trade associations.



      9/8/2011                http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                                    26
Example of Estimating Future Demand                     Survey of
                                                               Buyer’s Intention
       Farmers' intentions regarding fertilizer
                       usage

In the fertilizer business it is possible to assess farmers'
intentions through retailers. Many retailers are located
     in villages and are in daily touch with farmers.

 Being close to the scene of action, they have a good
    assessment of produce price trends, available
       purchasing power, likely crop shifts, etc.

 It should be possible to ascertain from each retailer
directly or through a large sample, the likely fertilizer
  demand. Through enquiry from their own outlets,
marketing organisations can produce a fairly accurate
                    sales forecast.

       9/8/2011              http://solcapala.blogspot.com/                        27
TOP 10 Learning Concepts

Ch 4: Conducting Marketing Research And
          Forecasting Demand


              Mirasol Capala
             September 2011




       http://solcapala.blogspot.com/

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Ch 4.Sol Capala

  • 1. TOP 10 Learning Concepts Ch 4: Conducting Marketing Research And Forecasting Demand Mirasol Capala September 2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/
  • 2. Concept Outline 1. Effective Marketing Research System for Large and Small companies 2. Effective Marketing Research Follows the 6 Marketing Research Steps 3. Choosing the Research Approaches for your Marketing Research 4. Different Types of Research Instruments 5. Sampling Plan 6. Contact Methods 7. Forecasting and Demand Measurement- Why Study Demand? 8. Types of Market Demands 9. Company Demand 10. Estimating Current and Future Demand 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 2
  • 3. Effective Marketing Research System for Large Companies Custom marketing Syndicated-service Specialty-line marketing research firm research firm research firm Firms that gather consumer and trade information, which they sell for a fee. Zpryme, a leading global research firm, today announced its latest market research practice launch, China Insights, service focused on the China consumer and business marketplace. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 3
  • 4. Example of Marketing Research for Large Companies Syndicated Research •Streaming video is an 97% of smart phones indication of the future should come touch of consumer screens by 2016 entertainment •Research used by Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony(SNE)- reason why they focus on the game console. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 4
  • 5. Effective Marketing Research System for Small Companies Crowdcasting Using the Internet Checking out rivals Research conducted in creative and affordable ways. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 5
  • 6. Example of Marketing Research for Small Companies Using the Internet •Small companies use Twitter to create niche markets •Twitter is a great place to look at what people are discussing, buying, suggesting and current Use the Top overall trends. 50 of All Time, Tweetstats to see fresh, relevant and current trends for free. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 6
  • 7. Effective Marketing Research Follows the 6 Marketing Research Steps •Firms should set specific research objectives. •Firms must decide whether to collect their own data or use data that already exist. •They must also decide which research approach, which research instruments to use. •They must decide on a sampling plan and contact methods. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 7
  • 8. Example of Company following the 6 Steps of Marketing Research Process Step 1: P&G wanted to enter the Chinese market with a sound strategy after Chinese experts warned the company that nobody in China could afford Head & Shoulders. Step 2: P&G developed a Step 5: The company's market research research plan to know the revealed that though there were several common problem among shampoo marketers in China, there was no Chinese consumers. shampoo that could remove dandruff from the scalp. Dandruff was a common hair problem among the Chinese consumers. Step 3: P&G collected information through online research, surveys and telephone Step 6: P&G hence launched Head & interviews. Shoulders, a brand that was known for its anti-dandruff properties. Step 4: They have analyze the Within three years of its launch, information and did several Head & Shoulders became China's analysis to test the strength of bestselling shampoo, even though it the conclusions. was priced three times higher than the local brands. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 8
  • 9. Choosing the Research Approaches for your Marketing Research Observation Behavioural Data Experiments Focus Group Discussion Surveys 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 9
  • 10. Example of Use of Different Marketing Research Approaches Focus Group Discussion Surveys Findings: Dinner party guests Survey Reveals: Online were bringing their host Coupon Sites Remain Top flowers instead of chocolate, in Consumer Choice for Deals a nod to current concerns over 68 % of daily deal users obesity & health. reported using daily deal sites for impulse rather than planned purchases. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 10
  • 11. Different Types of Research Instruments Qualitative Research Questionnaire Technological Devices 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 11
  • 12. Example of Use of Different Research Instruments •Mapping Bush and Kerry to well-known product and Qualitative Research corporate brands reveals how each candidate is viewed and suggests brand strategies each can employ to potentially sway the critical undecided voter group. •Bush is associated with the positive attributes of established mainstay brands like Bud Light, IBM and Ford ("reliable", "humble", "heritage", "solid"); Kerry is associated with the positive attributes of premium brands like Heineken, Apple, and BMW ("high-quality", "high-performance", "hip", "young") •To win undecided voters, Kerry must prove that he has substance, that he's not all flash and marketing. Bush, on the other hand, must focus on emphasizing that his strengths – stability and reliability – are more important than being ultra-modern or progressive 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 12
  • 13. Sampling Plan Sampling Size How many people should we survey? Sampling Unit Who should we survey? Sampling Procedure How should we choose the respondents? 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 13
  • 14. Example of Sampling Plan When times are tough, Pinoys commute Sampling Unit: The survey focused on the travel habits of commuters on the Metro Rail Transit (MRT) and Light Rail Transit (LRT) systems. What this means Sample Size: Nielsen conducted interviews with 500 for advertisers? MRT3 passengers, 250 LRT1 passengers and 250 LRT2 passengers in February 2009. Sample Procedure: The survey used random With Nielsen's survey sampling methods and has a 5 percent margin of error. findings proving that consumers spend more time outside the home, it is a go signal for more advertisers to invest in "out-of-home" advertisements. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 14
  • 15. Contact Methods Mail Questionnaire Personal Interview Telephone Interview Online Interview 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 15
  • 16. Example of Contact Methods in Conducting Marketing Research Personal Interview Ground coffee review CHOICE’s expert tasters find some of the best brews at very affordable prices. Tester brews each coffee in the same way using a Breville ESP8B Café Roma espresso machine. Three experts rate the coffees, giving them scores for the colour and thickness of the crema, aroma, flavour, mouthfeel and aftertaste. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 16
  • 17. Forecasting and Demand Measurement Why Study Demand? FINANCE OPERATIONS PURCHASING HR MARKETING The cash that To establish To get the To get the To prepare is required for capacity and right amount right number sales forecasts operations output levels of supplies of workers and investments 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 17
  • 18. Example of Wrong Sales Forecast Xerox commissioned three independent consultants to explore the opportunity for a copier. Two consultants advised against the launch and the third consultant forecast sales of 8,000 units over 6 years. Xerox chose to ignore the recommendations of the consultants, launched the copier and installed 80,000 machines within just 3 years. The market research had underestimated demand as respondents were unable to provide their views on a new product that they had never experienced. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 18
  • 19. Types of Market Demands Potential Available Penetrated Market Market Target Market Market Consumers have Consumers have interest, income Qualified income, access to and access to Sets of customers available product product who are buying market the company company’s decides to products pursue 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 19
  • 20. Example of Market Research for Different Market Demands Potential Market A researcher at 3M was eager to create the world's best glue, but actually ended up creating one of the worst glues ever – one that didn't stick – which nevertheless ended up as one of 3M's most successful products: that of the ubiquitous Post-it notes. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 20
  • 21. Company Demand It is the company’s estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort at a given time period. Sales Forecast Is the expected level of company sales based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment. Sales Potential Is the sales limit approached by company demand as company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 21
  • 22. Example of Sales Forecast Christmas Sales Forecast Gets More Grim Buyers expected to stay frugal through holiday season Of those consumers Only 35.6 who normally give gift percent said they cards but won't this would give gifts year, 64.4 % will give instead, money instead Of those consumers Seventy percent of consumers who will give fewer said that they stayed within gift cards, over a their budgets, an indicator of third say that there this year's disciplined shopper. is a chance they could give nothing at all. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 22
  • 23. Example of Sales Potential Retail sales rise 3.6% during holidays Romance novels embrace Christmas spirit and sales potential 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 23
  • 24. Estimating Current Demand Practical methods for estimating current market demand Total Market Potential Area Market Potential Maximum amount of sales that might be Maximum amount of sales that might be available to all firms in an industry during a available in different cities, states, and nations. period of time. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 24
  • 25. Example of Estimating Current Demand Baby Car Seat Manufacturer Understand the total market potential of infant car seats in both units and Pesos. If two million babies are expected in a year, the market for infant seats is 2m units. However some of the households may be two car households and decide to buy two seats. If 50% of the households buy two seats, then the market is really 3m units. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 25
  • 26. Estimating Future Demand All forecasts are built on one of 3 information bases: what people say, what people do, or what people have done. Good forecasting is a key factor in success of the companies. Survey of Buyer’s Past- Sales Analysis Expert Opinion Intention Firms can develop sales Obtain forecasts from Useful in estimating demand forecasts on the basis of past experts, including dealers, for industrial products, sales. distributors, suppliers, consumer durables and new marketing consultants, and products. trade associations. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 26
  • 27. Example of Estimating Future Demand Survey of Buyer’s Intention Farmers' intentions regarding fertilizer usage In the fertilizer business it is possible to assess farmers' intentions through retailers. Many retailers are located in villages and are in daily touch with farmers. Being close to the scene of action, they have a good assessment of produce price trends, available purchasing power, likely crop shifts, etc. It should be possible to ascertain from each retailer directly or through a large sample, the likely fertilizer demand. Through enquiry from their own outlets, marketing organisations can produce a fairly accurate sales forecast. 9/8/2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/ 27
  • 28. TOP 10 Learning Concepts Ch 4: Conducting Marketing Research And Forecasting Demand Mirasol Capala September 2011 http://solcapala.blogspot.com/