Feeding and Fueling the World to 2030 and Beyond: Land Use Change from a Food Security Perspective
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International Development Seminar Series November 9-10, 2009 Lausanne, Switzerland
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Feeding and Fueling the World to 2030 and Beyond: Land Use Change from a Food Security Perspective
- 1. Feeding and Fueling the World to 2030 and Beyond Land Use Change from a Food Security Perspective Siwa Msangi Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI International Development Seminar Series 9-10 November 2009, Royal Savoy Hotel, Lausanne, Switzerland
- 5. Page Page Where will new production come from? The needed increase in production, to meet demand can come from additional yield on existing land or achieving a sufficient level of production on new land = change in production = change in yield on harvested area previously cultivated = average yield on additional land going into prod’n
- 6. Where is the land for agriculture? Page Source: Fields et al , 2007 Global Land Areas from HYDE-3 LU data
- 9. Additional yield growth in cereals to offset malnutrition impacts of US biofuels target Page Global Cereal Yield Growth Malnourished children (0-5) Additional (annual average) yield growth in cereals: 1% in developing world 0.5% in developed world In other words…. Going from: 1.3% 1.8% Avg annual yield growth, globally
- 12. Country-level perspective on linkage b/w biofuels, growth and poverty Page
- 15. Mozambique: Agricultural land use Land allocated to export crops declines fastest… … but most displaced land comes from food crops Source: Arndt et al. 2008 Land displaced by biofuels (total = 415 000 hectares)
- 18. Connections to household food security Page
- 21. Impact pathways of food security Page Retail food prices Income Price transmission World Price Changes Household-level decisions & outcomes Macro-scale market conditions National commodity prices Off-Farm income sources Own cons’n Nutrition, health & well-being Marketed surplus Markets ( marketing policy) Processing & marketing Producer decisions Consumer decisions Food purchases (subsidies & policy)
- 23. Key dimensions of household choices Page Preferences & market conditions market opportunities Could be biofuel-related Expenditure Trade-off market opportunities Income Savings ( mkt return ) food non-food farm non-farm cash crop food crop agric. non-agric. own production marketed food allocation Labor/resource allocation diversification
- 29. Thank You! Page
- 31. Regional per cap variation stands out …. especially meat Page Per capita Cereal Demand to 2050 Per capita Meat Demand to 2050
- 32. Page Page Outlook for cereal production Total Cereal Production to 2050 Per Capita Cereal Production to 2050 Continue to depend on key regions to deliver...
- 33. A varied pattern of child malnutrition IMPACT model projections Prevalence of pre-School Child Malnutrition in Asia and Africa (% of population aged 0 to 5) Total Levels of pre-School Child Malnutrition in Developing World (millions of children aged 0 to 5)
- 34. Mozambique example: poverty Biofuels investments reduce poverty (raises returns to land and labor) Jatropha out-grower scheme is more pro-poor (absolute and relative def.) Urban households benefit from processing and indirect jobs (raises semi-skilled wages) (Arndt et al., 2008)